00:00You know, a week ago, I think, you know, energy traders are probably concerned about where this
00:05could lead to. And many people are now saying we're very much staring down the barrel of the
00:09worst case scenario of how things could have unfolded here with the effective straight of
00:14the effective closure of the straits, energy infrastructure continuing to get hit.
00:19How do you see this moment? Well, it's a watershed moment. It's a very critical time
00:27in our history as an energy exporting nation. You know, just to give some numbers to the viewers,
00:36Qatar and, you know, the Gulf region constitutes about 20 percent of global LNG exports, about 21
00:45to 22 million barrels per day of global exports, which is also another 20 percent. And about 1
00:52percent of global ship tonnage is parked either outside or inside the Strait of Hormuz. So it's
01:00it's a very critical situation. And the effects are and will reverberate globally.
01:10Do you think there's some concern about the longer term impact of all of this and that,
01:15you know, Europe may seek to buy alternative suppliers? You know, is this something that
01:22the authorities are thinking of later down the track?
01:27Of course, you know, the you know, closing and opening the biggest LNG facility in the world is
01:33not like opening and closing, you know, electronic device. It's something that takes time to ramp up,
01:40ramp down. There are a lot of security and safety concerns when you do that. So it is it is
01:47a risk,
01:47but also it's everybody's risks because you cannot just suddenly change or replace 20 percent of LNG
01:56exports and 20 percent of cheap, reliable energy exports with what's available in the market. It's
02:02something if on the long term, the market has to adapt. But on the short term to short term,
02:09the effects, we're already seeing the effects with the hikes and in gas prices.
02:16Let's talk about those hikes and gas prices, because it's been most notable,
02:20notable for European gas prices, for UK natural gas prices, but not so much for US gas prices.
02:27We have a chart that we're just showing up here showing the blue line is showing the spike in
02:31European natural gas prices, but US natural gas prices haven't really moved that much
02:35and perhaps indicates that the US is somewhat immune, at least to the gas shock that's emanating
02:43from this. Is that your perception as well? Well, the US is a net gas producer, so the immediate effects
02:53will not be seen. But let's look at reliance when it comes to Asian consumers. So between Japan,
03:04South Korea, China, and India, the reliance of Middle Eastern energy varies between 50 percent
03:13and 90 percent in some cases. The energy there is not used only for electricity. You know, the oil and
03:22gas
03:22and subproducts are not used only for energy. They're used for different industries. So for example,
03:28one of the byproducts of LNG is helium. Qatar is the biggest exporter of helium. Helium is one of the
03:35main feeds into the semiconductor industry. So the reverberations of this closure can actually overheat
03:44different sectors, not just the energy sector. Yeah. Yeah. I was also reading about fertilizer
03:51as well being very much impacted by it all. Yesterday, the president, President Trump announced
03:59a plan to introduce naval escorts for vessels looking to cross the straits and lower insurance
04:06premia for those choosing to take on the subsidized rates. Do you think this is going to be a game
04:13changer
04:13at all for companies and for vessels who have been waiting to cross? So this reminds us a lot of
04:21the
04:221980s when during the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war started and the U.S. got involved. I think in
04:29this
04:29case, we won't see only the U.S. involved in trying to open up the strait and clear up a
04:36route for energy
04:37exports to come out. We see China sending their special envoy on mediation to the Middle East
04:43also to find a solution. So I think this is a problem that the world will have to join up
04:49together
04:49and fix. And just to answer your question, I think with everybody pitching in, you know,
05:00the strait has to be opened. Okay. Yeah. Where do you think the off-ramp is going to come from
05:09here?
05:09Just putting on your, you know, let's put the energy perspective aside and think about geopolitical
05:14ramifications. What could bring about an end to this war? Well, you know, from a Gulf perspective,
05:23this wasn't our war. We did not stop this war. On the contrary, you know, Qatar and Oman were at
05:29the
05:29forefront of trying to find a diplomatic solution. But unfortunately, that didn't happen. You know,
05:37there are no wars that finish by total defeat, especially in the contemporary world. It has to
05:44be solved at the negotiating table. How does that negotiating table look like? Who's at the
05:50negotiation table? I think it's subject to what's happened, what will happen in the next few days.
05:55But in the end, a negotiated solution is the only sustainable way forward.
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