00:00We began this segment a few minutes ago with the president, President Trump last night saying that
00:06this war is already won. Is the U.S.'s definition of winning the same as Israel's?
00:13Very good question. Good to be with you. It's a question that's being asked by many
00:16Israelis today. Israel had very specific goals to certainly prevent Iran from rebuilding its
00:23nuclear program, to deny Iran the ability to manufacture these very, very large missiles
00:28that have been hitting Israel, each one with about a ton of explosives in their warhead,
00:33and finally to cease, bring about the cessation of Iranian support for terrorist proxies throughout
00:40the Middle East. They're trying to destroy us, even tonight. And originally that was also America's
00:45position. I don't think that Israelis would agree that almost all the targets have been destroyed
00:52in Iran. And I think that the issue is, in the end, what does the day after look like? Tonight,
00:57the Iranian president issued basically conditions to the United States, saying there has to be
01:03just an unconditional ceasefire, but the United States has to pay reparations to Iran, and the
01:08United States has to issue guarantees that Iran will never again be attacked. So that gives you,
01:12I think, an idea of where the Iranian mindset is. They do not believe they're on the verge of defeat.
01:19Okay. Well, Ambassador, and thank you again for joining us on Bloomberg TV and radio. You have
01:25suggested that there will be no Mount Suribachi moment in this conflict, referring to the flag
01:31raising on Iwo Jima. When will then, how will we know that this war is won?
01:37Well, there'll be one of two ways. One, if the Iranian regime says, okay, we're not going to make a
01:42nuclear weapon, we're not going to make ballistic missiles that can hit Israel, we're not going to
01:45support terror anymore, or, barring that, a popular uprising, or perhaps even a coup within
01:53the regime, within the ranks of the IRGC, or perhaps the army. Now, to achieve that, it may be in
02:00long-term propositions. It'll be questioned whether the president and the people of the United States are up
02:05for that. And here, the model would not be, it would not be Iraq and Afghanistan, those forever
02:12wars, but really the Cold War, where the United States remained very steadfast over a long period
02:17of time and brought about the fall of the Soviet Union. Well, that's incredible to consider, because
02:23then we are talking quite a longer time horizon than the Trump administration is suggesting. Knowing
02:30that the administration in recent days has been very careful to say regime change,
02:35essentially, is not what they are seeking, but it would be a welcome outcome if it indeed
02:39happens. From Israel's perspective, knowing the son of the late Ayatollah is now in power,
02:44we got our first statement from him today. Is it going to be acceptable to Israel
02:49for the younger Khamenei to still be in power in Iran, or would you anticipate that until
02:54that situation changes, Israel, at least, will declare that it is not over?
02:59I think, well, it's not so much the person, it's his position. If his position is to maintain Iran's
03:06campaign, which began back in 1979 and reiterated every day since then, to destroy the state of
03:12Israel, then the new Supreme Leader, Mustafa, will also be considered an enemy, and by the way, a legitimate
03:18target for Israel. Certainly, that is our unassailable right to pursue that. If the Supreme
03:27Leader would come out and say, in one way or another, okay, we're going to change direction,
03:31and we're not going to seek destruction of Israel and our neighbors or the United States of America,
03:36it might be something different. I just don't see that happening. I think that those three goals of
03:40destroying Israel and the United States and dominating the Middle East are in the DNA of this regime, and
03:45it's almost impossible for them to change. Interesting. Ambassador, with that said,
03:50there are multiple reports today, including one from Reuters, that finds U.S. intelligence
03:55indicates Iran's leadership is still largely intact and not at risk of collapse, with a multitude of
04:02intelligence reports pointing to consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger and retains
04:09control of the Iranian public. Is it possible to change that dynamic without going in on the ground?
04:15It is, but again, it's the long term. I mean, I referenced earlier the Cold War. I think that
04:22at some point, the intense military stage of this campaign will end, that Iran's missile launchers
04:28and drone launchers in factories will be destroyed, and I think that's happening slowly but surely every
04:35single day. And eventually, they'll run out of these missile launchers and the drones, and then the United
04:40States could impose a very punishing and strict naval blockade on Iran, ensure that not a drop of oil
04:46gets out, certainly no munitions will get in. And then over the course of a certain period of time,
04:53probably a protracted period of time, the Iranian regime will finally wither on the vine and be in a
04:59position to be overthrown either by the people or by elements within the regime itself.
05:05When we consider, Ambassador, that this is no longer just combat operations in and around Iran,
05:11Iran obviously has cast a wide net in terms of retaliation to other Gulf states, even as far as
05:17Turkey, where NATO has had to intervene. But Israel also has looked to the north, and there is active
05:22firing between Israel and Lebanon and Hezbollah specifically. Even if there is some kind of
05:28resolution with Iran, the Islamic regime itself, what of that conflict, how has that brought to an
05:35end? Well, that is a very pertinent question tonight. I was in the north yesterday, and the
05:39situation there remains very dire. Last night, the north was hit by about 250 rockets from Lebanon.
05:47Some of them are quite long range, not just striking the north, but also central Israel.
05:51And so I think that the goal there would have to be that even if the United States says,
05:55okay, we're willing for a ceasefire with Iran, that Israel has to insist on pressing the campaign
06:01against Hezbollah. And there's very specific reason for this. Much of the Israeli north has been
06:07rendered uninhabitable by these missile attacks. And unless Hezbollah is decisively defeated,
06:13and in a way that the Lebanese government can regain control over its own territory, particularly in
06:17the south, those areas in northern Israel remain, some of these cities are ghost cities. It's quite
06:23quite disparate. So that is an intolerable situation for any sovereign state, certainly for the state
06:29of Israel. And we hope that the United States will continue to give us the very green light we've
06:34received up to now in combating Hezbollah.
06:38Ambassador, with regard to the Iranian regime, I noticed a post on Twitter that was retweeted,
06:45reposted by our ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz. It's from author Saul Sadka, who writes,
06:51the regime's top brass seems to have decamped to the distant city of Mashhad, as far away from the
06:57U.S. bases and carriers and from Israel as you can get without actually fleeing to Afghanistan.
07:03Have you heard that report? Is that the case? And the ambassador retweets, writing,
07:10if only we still had Bagram Air Base. Do you agree?
07:14I don't know about Bagram Air Base, but I wouldn't doubt that the key leaders of the regime,
07:21including the Supreme Leader himself, are either very, very deep underground or as far away from
07:25the combat areas as possible. There have been dozens of these leaders who have been eliminated,
07:31many 40 of them on the first day of the war, and they're all legitimate targets. And as we know,
07:37Iran is deeply, deeply penetrated by the intelligence services of both the United States and Israel.
07:43And we tend to know where people are sleeping at night, where people are having lunch during the day,
07:48and they must be in a situation of constant fear and constant paranoia, quite legitimately,
07:57about who in their entourage is leaking and giving information to the Israelis and to the CIA
08:01and targeting them. That's incredible to consider. Ambassador, finally, before we let you go,
08:09we have obviously heard repeatedly conflicting timelines from President Trump as to the duration
08:14we can expect for this conflict. At this point, nearly two weeks in, would your guess
08:19be that this is still weeks more ahead of us, or could it be months or longer?
08:25I really can't answer that for the United States. I can only answer it for the people of Israel.
08:29We are sustaining nightly, daily rocket attacks. I run from where I'm talking to you now into the
08:35bomb shelter next to me several times during the day, and two nights ago it went on all night.
08:39We're nowhere near tired. We're nowhere near breaking. We are a very resilient population,
08:46very resilient society, and we know that we have no choice in this war. Whether fighting against
08:49Iran or fighting against Hezbollah, we're in it, because there really is no out. The United States has a
08:55different set of considerations. It has political considerations. It is far from the Middle East.
09:00But I would only stress that if the war ends with Iran basically in control of the Straits of Hormuz,
09:05Iran having humbled oil producers around the Middle East, having even humbled NATO,
09:10because NATO hasn't responded, that that will have very far-reaching ramifications for American security.
09:16And Iran will rebuild and rebuild its capacities, and someday, someday,
09:20will threaten the United States much more imminently. And the time to address that threat is not in years
09:27to come, but now.
Comments