00:00up to be quite a pivotal day. These are the first in-person negotiations between Israel
00:06and Lebanon in decades. Is this performative diplomacy or could it actually lead to something
00:13more substantial and possibly even a peace agreement?
00:16Good morning, Jumana. I wouldn't say performative here. I think especially on the Lebanese side and
00:23the U.S. side, they do have an interest in going into these talks, right, from the Lebanese side.
00:28They want the ceasefire now. They want the attacks to stop as that has really wreaked havoc across the
00:35country. And for the U.S. side, they need to have some sort of talks between Israeli and the Lebanese
00:41side in order to kind of facilitate their own talks with Iran that might actually continue,
00:48as we have seen reports from before. The thing is that Lebanon wants to go into these talks and
00:53demanding a ceasefire before discussing any other item, potentially a sustainable solution.
01:00But we've seen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that they will not stop the
01:06attacks and they will demand that Lebanon disarms Hezbollah. Now, these talks are, of course,
01:12fraud, right? There are a lot of issues that need to be resolved before going into
01:15the details of how Lebanon would disarm Hezbollah, especially after it failed the last time it
01:22vowed to do so. And, of course, that led to Hezbollah joining the war on Iran and firing rockets and
01:29drones into Israel, and, of course, prompting Israel to respond back with a massive air campaign and,
01:35of course, ground operations that Israel said could lead to the occupation of at least 10 percent of
01:40Lebanese territory. Yeah. You know, it was interesting overnight, Wafiq Safa, which is,
01:48he's one of the high-ranking officials from Hezbollah, did tell Associated Press, as for the outcomes of
01:55this negotiation between Lebanon and Israel, we're not interested in them, we're not concerned about
02:00them at all, and we are not bound by what they agreed to. How much political sway does Hezbollah
02:07actually have here in terms of their ability to jeopardize whatever is agreed?
02:13They can. And I think the group sent a signal, albeit a small one, over the weekend when they
02:20held a protest outside the government house, which is the Grand Sarai, and protested these talks and
02:27said that they would reject them. And the fear in Lebanon is that Hezbollah might actually go ahead
02:32and topple this government to thwart the talks. And even if the talks go through and some agreement
02:38is made, they will make sure that there won't be any implementation of these talks. Hezbollah is very
02:44much cornered domestically and maybe not able to go all out locally and use whatever advantage it has
02:53because it is also cornered. You have on one side, it is being pummeled by Israeli attacks and then a
02:59government that banned its military and security apparatus, as we have seen earlier or two months
03:05ago, I think. And so it is cornered politically inside Lebanon and also outside. Iran is now in
03:12talks with the U.S. for an agreement that could potentially lead to a sustainable solution between
03:19the two. But also it's hard to see Hezbollah disarming at all or surrendering its weapons.
03:24It is very much linked to the Iranian regime, not like the Houthis and Hamas are, but they are
03:29ideologically linked and almost a partner to the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps. So these two are
03:35very much connected. And a lot of the experts we speak to say it is hard to see Hezbollah surrendering
03:40its arms without the collapse of the Iranian regime.
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