00:00We're going to talk about the polling and the social issues, but just tee this up for us.
00:04Let's start with how expensive that primary was and what that portends for this general election campaign.
00:10Well, this general election campaign expect to be well over $100 million.
00:14I want to take you back to 2018 when Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz, between the two of them,
00:18that was about $120 million.
00:20That was 2018.
00:22I expect this race to be more expensive when it is all said and done.
00:26The Republicans already spent a lot of money going after each other in the primary.
00:31So now they have to really get ready for a general election, whereas James Tallarico has just had plenty of
00:36time to fundraise.
00:37He's raised $3 million, his campaign says, since the primary results alone.
00:42So expect this to be a lot of money.
00:46David, I want to ask about these kind of dueling narratives since we've got dueling bureau chiefs.
00:52Obviously, Ken Paxton has quite the history, right?
00:56He's got ethics concerns.
00:57He's got personal life is a bit messy.
01:00Republican voters in the primary seem to not be bothered by that.
01:03I'm wondering, as you go into the general, if that's going to be a bigger concern.
01:06And then I'm also highly amused at the swipes.
01:10Of course, some Republican operatives have been taking at Tallarico this week, including accusing him of being a vegan.
01:16He is not, for the record.
01:17And accusing him of having a secret vegan girlfriend.
01:21What is going on here?
01:22And what are voters really going to care about?
01:24Well, I mean, that remains to be seen.
01:26But, you know, it's important to remember that Attorney General Ken Paxton has won several statewide races, statewide general elections
01:33in Texas, you know, with a lot of the baggage that he's bringing into this general election already known to
01:37the voters.
01:37So one of the challenges for Democrats here is going to be, you know, making those issues, you know, salient
01:43again.
01:44And it's, you know, this argument that, you know, Ken Paxton is unfit for the job and that he has
01:48this, you know, messy personal life and history of corruption allegations.
01:51That's something that John Cornyn tried in the primary, and it really didn't work at all with Republican voters.
01:57And, you know, it may not work here with general election voters either.
02:00But that is the tactic that, you know, James Tallarico is focused on so far.
02:04And he believes that, you know, Ken Paxton hasn't run a general election since 2022.
02:08Some of these accusations are, if not new, at least newly adjudicated.
02:12You know, his impeachment in 2023 happened, you know, in the interim.
02:15So he may be a little bit more vulnerable than in the past.
02:18On the other side, what Ken Paxton is trying to do is really make James Tallarico seem, you know, un
02:22-Texan or sort of other to the voters here.
02:24And one of the ways he's doing that is, you know, by using the vegan word.
02:28And James Tallarico is not a vegan, but it does, you know, it sort of resonates on some level with
02:33the idea among Republican voters anyway that this candidate is outside of the mainstream of what a Texan is.
02:39And, you know, it's a bit ironic because, you know, James Tallarico is a multi-generational Texan, whereas Ken Paxton
02:44moved here from elsewhere.
02:46And so, you know, both of them, of course, are Texans now.
02:48But this question of what does it mean to be a Texan is at the center of this race.
02:52Julie, pick up on that.
02:53I mean, I'm curious how much this is sticking with the general electorate.
02:56Is this something that could be solved if James Tallarico went to, like, Lockhart tomorrow and went to Smitty's and
03:01Black's and Cruz's and got a few plates?
03:03You're so excited to know those names.
03:05Didn't use cutlery, used white bread to eat the barbecue.
03:08I mean, is this something that's likely to stick as we move to November?
03:10Is it something he can dismiss or get out of voters' minds pretty quickly here, do you think?
03:14Well, I think this is something you're going to see until November.
03:18I mean, you talk about going to a barbecue joint and doing that kind of thing.
03:22He will have those opportunities to do it.
03:25The question really is, is this going to all be personal attacks and who's more Texan and who's done this
03:30or who's done that?
03:31Or do they get down to the issues of affordability and the border?
03:36So certainly there's time, as my dueling bureau chief knows, it's a long time in politics until that general election.
03:43But I expect these themes to come up because they were so prevalent during the primary.
03:49Julie, is there enough barbecue to be eaten, though?
03:53When you look at the numbers, this is not a place that elects Democrats, even at a time when there
03:59are a lot of folks based on polling that are unhappy with the way the country is being run with
04:04the Republican majority.
04:05It may not matter at the end of the day.
04:07And to David's points, the kryptonite of Ken Paxton's kind of ethics problems, it's old.
04:14Voters either know it or don't at this point.
04:16Are the numbers there, no matter how well Tallarico does, do you think, to actually pull out a victory?
04:22Because right now, as we've talked about, Paxton is pulling slightly ahead.
04:24Yeah, I mean, David said it perfectly.
04:27A lot is already known about Ken Paxton.
04:30John Cornyn really tried to get that out more.
04:33But this has been known for a long time, and he continues to get reelected.
04:38So you have to keep that in mind.
04:40Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
04:46So James Tallarico is really going to have to appeal to moderates and get more people registered to vote.
04:53That is something that Beto O'Rourke really tried to do but only came within three.
04:57David, I think I speak for all of us.
04:59We'd love to see these two men on stage hashing it out, making their platforms known, trading barbs with one
05:05another.
05:06What is the likelihood of that happening between now, May and November?
05:10I would say it's pretty close to zero that that scenario plays out.
05:13Ken Paxton hasn't done a debate in a primary or general election for many, many cycles.
05:19I think back to 2014 was the last time he was in some kind of onstage debate.
05:24And part of the reason why is that he never has had to do that.
05:26He's always been in a kind of pole position in his races.
05:30And here as well, I think if we see a debate, it'll be because Republicans are quite worried that they're
05:35not getting their message across
05:37and that James Tallarico is appealing across party lines in the way that Julie is suggesting.
05:43And so at this point, I can't imagine a scenario where he does agree to a debate.
05:47But if we see one, I think it's a signal that Democrats are closer than Republicans want them to be.
05:53Julie, quickly before I let you go, what happens to the Cornyn voters?
05:56I mean, we've got a poll that says most of them said they would now choose Paxton, 23 percent undecided.
06:03Do you think Tallarico can get enough of them?
06:07That's what Democrats have been trying to do here for years.
06:10I think a lot of this depends on, again, how much is on personal issues and how much really does
06:16get down to the issues that matter to voters.
06:19It is a steep road for any Democrat.
06:22As David said, they're certainly going to be trying, but it's going to take a serious amount of effort.
06:27And you're going to have to really work to pull those voters over.
06:30Many of them, like you pointed out, said they will go ahead and vote for Ken Paxton when they were
06:35planning on voting for John Cornyn.
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