00:01Well, the party's already won one seat, and it's leading in another three.
00:06That's the Murray Bridge seat of Hammond, the York Peninsula seat of Narunga, and the
00:11South East seat of MacKillop.
00:13Now if it wins all those three seats, they will be nearly on par with the Liberal Party
00:19in terms of parliamentary numbers, although we're not expecting at this stage that they
00:24will replace the Liberal Party as the official opposition.
00:27The Liberal Party may have one or two more seats to gain to take its parliamentary numbers
00:31to six.
00:32But it's a remarkable result for One Nation, considering they only polled 2.6% at the last
00:39South Australian state election, it only elected its first MP to South Australian Parliament
00:44at the last state election, and the state's population profile is a lot different to One
00:50Nation's traditional homeland like Queensland.
00:52The state's population is much more centralised in Adelaide.
00:56But what we also saw is One Nation poll remarkably well in Labor seats in the outer suburbs.
01:03There are 19 seats that Labor holds where One Nation is currently polling second, where they're
01:08not expected to win, but it appears they have replaced the Liberal Party as the Labor Party's
01:14main opponent in those seats.
01:16Now, there's going to be implications of this federally.
01:19Labor spent much of its time during this campaign focused on the Liberal Party.
01:24They're now contending with a One Nation threat in seats in the outer suburbs.
01:29That may force a recalibration of the Federal Labor Party strategy at the next federal election.
01:35But it is a much more acute problem for the Liberal Party, which is facing being replaced in many
01:42regional South Australian seats where One Nation is doing so well and could end up with three or four
01:48seats in the lower house of South Australian Parliament.
01:50We take a step back and we realise that for the last 12 months polling in South Australia has
01:55pointed to an existential crisis for the South Australian Liberal Party, a potential electoral
02:00wipeout from Adelaide and regional South Australia.
02:03That hasn't happened.
02:05They will win four seats at least.
02:07That could increase to six or seven as the counting progresses through that week.
02:12We've got Liberal leader Ashton Hearn, who only had 100 days to run her campaign.
02:17A lot of party insiders are hailing her performance with such a short time span to work with.
02:23And also a number of issues that overshadowed her campaign, including the Bondi terrorist attack,
02:30people tuning out over Christmas and just the general state of the Liberal Party over the last
02:35four years.
02:36It's changed leaders four times in four years.
02:38So there's a lot of praise for Ashton Hearn, but there are also some recriminations.
02:42Former foreign minister Alexander Downer has called for the broad church that John Howard termed
02:47to work better across the aisles.
02:51And former federal minister Christopher Pyne has also called for a rethink of how the party conducts
02:58its internal elections.
02:59Currently in South Australia, the internal structures of the Liberal Party are controlled by the conservative
03:04faction. Christopher Pyne suggested today that you have to work in a way that is collaborative
03:11rather than trying to defeat one side or the other, essentially calling for a move away from
03:17winner-takes-all structures in internal elections. So whether this result leads to any reforms to the
03:23Liberal Party's internal structures or the way it governs itself is something we'll be watching very closely here
03:29over the next few months.
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