00:01Well, the polls suggest that they have made a very substantial gain upon their performance
00:07last time around, four years ago.
00:09One Nation polled about 2.5%, but they only stood in about half of the seats for the lower
00:15house.
00:15This time, they're standing in all of the seats, and the polls indicate that their vote
00:20will be somewhere, possibly in the low 20s, but conceivably in the high 20s, and more
00:26than that, perhaps in some of the rural seats.
00:28Enough to win a substantial number of seats?
00:31No, I don't think so.
00:33There's a record number of candidates standing this time around.
00:36We've got a lot of independents and some small parties, and in some of the rural seats, it's
00:41going to be incredibly long wait for the preferences to be distributed, and we won't know exactly
00:50how some of those seats finish for some time, I think, because the exact order, finishing
00:54order and the primary votes will be clear, but then the preference flows will take some
00:58time.
00:59I think there's a chance One Nation will get a couple of seats.
01:03Again, if the polls are accurate and they poll in the mid-30s in rural seats, then there's
01:08every chance they'll win a couple of seats.
01:10I think the Liberals are bound to lose seats, but they may be losing them to independents.
01:15There's some high-profile independents who stood last time, and others endorsed by retiring
01:22independent members.
01:23So, the Liberals, certainly in rural South Australia, are facing a threat from both One Nation on
01:30one side and independents on the other.
01:32In the metropolitan area, the Liberals look like they'll lose some seats to Labor.
01:36And so, what are people's biggest concerns?
01:39I think, as you'd expect across South Australia and the rest of Australia, there's a lot of
01:44anxiety about provision of health services, the standard of education, public transport,
01:49but obviously the cost of living is a big and significant factor.
01:53Of course, some of that is not an area that the state can control all that much.
01:58Certainly, health and education it can, but the broader cost of living pressures are out
02:03of its hands.
02:04But when people, voters are angry and unhappy and feeling that governments are not responding
02:10to their concerns, it's perhaps no surprise that they're turning to parties like One Nation,
02:15which are effectively an insurgent party, challenging, as you said earlier, the dominance of the two
02:22major parties.
02:23And Opposition Leader Ashton Hearn only took over as leader late last year.
02:26What do people think about the job she's doing?
02:29I think most people say she's doing a pretty good job, but she's only been in that position
02:34for, as you say, a couple of months.
02:37She's not been able to halt the fall in the opinion polls for the Liberal Party, but she
02:42may well have slowed the rate of dissent that it's gone.
02:45She's stood against the Premier in a couple of the leadership debates, and I think has
02:50done fairly well.
02:52We've got to remember she's a first term MP, and she took over the leadership literally
02:57with about three months before the election.
02:59And she acknowledged herself at the time she had a mountain to climb if she was to turn around
03:06the Liberal Party's fortunes.
03:09I think they will certainly lose seats, but most commentators, I think, will say Ashton
03:15Hearn's done performed well and are not going to be holding her personally responsible for
03:20the collapse in the Liberal vote.
03:22I think there's a number of other reasons for that.
03:25So you think there will be a collapse in the Liberal vote?
03:28Certainly, if the opinion polls are accurate, there will be.
03:31I think they polled in the sort of mid-30s last time, and opinion polls are suggesting now
03:35that it'll be down to below 20%, with One Nation outpolling the Liberals in primary votes.
03:42So I think the Liberals will still win seats.
03:48Some commentary that said they could be wiped out, it's possible.
03:52But I think still unlikely.
03:54But there's every chance that when the Parliament sits for the first time after the election,
03:59there could be more on the crossbenchers, independents and perhaps one or two, One Nation,
04:03than there are sitting in the Liberal opposition.
04:05And that'll be a remarkable result for South Australia.
04:08And overall, what do people think about the job that Peter Malinowskis has been doing?
04:13And what nationally South Australian politics received a lot of attention during that controversy
04:18over the Writers Festival?
04:20Yes.
04:21Was there much of a reaction in South Australia to that?
04:24And is his leadership popularity holding up?
04:29Yes, it is.
04:30He's a remarkably proficient and professional politician with incredibly high levels of approval
04:36as preferred Premier.
04:39And Labor have a huge asset with Peter Malinowskis as their leader.
04:44And Labor also, we've got to remember South Australian political history,
04:47Labor have been in office for more than 40 of the last 60 years.
04:50The Liberal Party have been divided and Labor has been very professional in their approach.
04:55But you're right, there's been some criticism of Peter Malinowskis in relation to a couple of areas,
05:01and one of them was the fuss over Writers Week.
05:05But I think it's probably fair to say that...
05:08And also, just as you mentioned that, also what about the management of the algal bloom?
05:14Yes, the algal bloom.
05:16I think that there's potentially there'll be some votes lost on the coastal seats,
05:22but probably not enough to make any material difference to Labor's overall result.
05:28And I think in relation to things like the fuss over clearing of trees in the parklands,
05:34it's an issue dear to the heart of people who live in Adelaide.
05:37Again, they will perhaps lose some votes there and over Writers Week.
05:41But where will those voters go?
05:42I don't think they're going to go to the Liberals and to One Nation.
05:45They'll probably turn to other parties and then bring the preferences back to Labor.
05:53So, yes, there's been some missteps in the Labor Party performance and campaign,
05:58but I don't think enough to really fundamentally change the outcome that we're all expecting.
06:05We're all including your friends and other people.
06:05They're all including our ethnic group members.
06:06And so we're just going to keep this in mind.
06:06We're just going to keep it straight.
06:06We're just going to become familiar.
06:06We're just going to try again.
06:06What we're doing.
06:06We're doing our bottom.
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