00:00We saw round one come and go yesterday.
00:02Now, naturally, they're on the West Coast, so not a lot has happened yet today.
00:06I see Aaron Ray leading the field right now, and I also see, by the way, Rory McIlroy with a
00:11really good first day, too.
00:13So I don't know what your opinion was going into this thing, Brad, but certainly I want your thoughts on
00:17it.
00:18And then I want to dive into Scotty Scheffler as well, who's off to maybe not the start that he
00:22wanted.
00:24My opinions, I knew there was going to be some chaos, and I knew that bettors had to be a
00:28little weary of firing into this tournament early.
00:32I was one of the bettors who kind of got slightly burned.
00:35I went with the AM-PM wave stack, basically means you target all the guys in the AM tee times
00:40because they're going to have a wave advantage.
00:42Well, turns out those AM guys end up getting the worst draw because the PGA Tour suspended play because it
00:48was raining too hard.
00:49That's fine. Whatever.
00:51I think that, you know, as a sports bet or betting golf, you sometimes get into those scenarios, but you
00:56want to position yourself to be as well-positioned as possible.
01:00This tournament's been pretty fun because there's been a good mix at the top of the leaderboard.
01:04If we look around, there's been golfers who are the short, accurate guys hitting middle of the fairways like Aaron
01:10Rye,
01:11and then you have the guys who can just outpower a golf course like Rory McIlroy, Ryan Fox, who are
01:17Wyndham Clark, who are sitting at the top of the leaderboard.
01:19One thing that has been true and has been certain about this golf tournament is it has been rewarding guys
01:25who have been putting on good ball-striking performances,
01:27and that's what we've really seen as the theme for the top of the leaderboard.
01:33And I think the story outside of that was the day that Scotty Scheffler had yesterday, which I believe was
01:38five over par.
01:40And that's not to say that he still can't do well in this tournament, but it would be highly unlikely,
01:44I would guess, that he would come back and win this,
01:47just being so far behind the leader with three days to play.
01:51And, you know, sometimes he does get off to some of these slow starts and does rally,
01:55and we saw it at the Waste Management Open a couple of weeks ago, and certainly we see it all
01:58the time with him,
01:59and that he usually has a great last day.
02:02But is this too far back in this one? Five over?
02:06There's a couple things at play here, right?
02:08Like, Scotty Scheffler, even mixing in his last three starts, is still the best first-round golfer in golf by
02:15margin
02:16in terms of strokes gain data and average finishing position.
02:20It's weird. It feels like he's playing a game.
02:22Like, he's trying to spot the field as many points as possible and see if he can come back.
02:26Golf has become too boring for him where winning is just not enough.
02:29He wants to do it from distance.
02:32Is it too far back to win?
02:33If anybody could do it, Scotty Scheffler, right?
02:35Right? He was in dire straits.
02:38He was six over at one point before they blew the horn yesterday.
02:42Finishes the round three under.
02:44Not for the round, but finishes the last few holes three under par, which brought him to three under.
02:48He's already made a birdie so far to start this round.
02:52It's probably too far back.
02:53Because with Scotty Scheffler, when he's playing poorly, there's something that we can grasp at that he can turn around.
02:59Like, normally when he's playing poorly, he's losing strokes putting.
03:01Or maybe his approach play isn't great.
03:04He has lost strokes across the board in round one.
03:08He lost strokes on approach, lost strokes putting, lost strokes around the green, and lost strokes off the tee.
03:13He has a staggering.
03:14This number for Scotty Scheffler is probably a number you don't want to hear ever coming out of a world
03:19number one.
03:19Has lost minus 1.41 strokes tee to green.
03:22That's not sustainable.
03:23Right now, he's only about, what, eight back?
03:27So if he goes out there and puts together an impressive four or five under round at a golf course
03:32that can be very volatile, I think he can do it.
03:35There's a reason why Scotty Scheffler has the most protected odds anytime he's struggling, right?
03:41Let's look at the odds board real quick.
03:43Scotty Scheffler is probably going to be around 40 to 1 to win a tournament.
03:46I'm talking about this is a guy who's struggling right now to make the cut because it's top 50s and
03:50ties after the day.
03:51He's below the cut line.
03:54I don't think he's a good bet.
03:57I think this is a real scenario where Scotty Scheffler finishes around T37, barely makes the cut, and we move
04:05on and start the Florida swing.
04:07Yeah, I think so too.
04:09But again, he's come back before.
04:12This seems very formidable, though, to win outright.
04:16By the way, he's still the favorite to win the Masters at plus 280 and the PGA Championship and the
04:21U.S. Open and the Open Championship.
04:23Did you get in on anything of this before the golf season began, or are you just not a favorite
04:29guy?
04:30I like betting favorites, and I like to pick and choose, but I just feel like with the opportunity to
04:37bet into some other markets,
04:38like maybe if you like the Thunder to win the West, you parlay the Thunder to win the West and
04:42Scotty Scheffler to win the Masters is a little bit better.
04:45I just can't – it's just really hard for me to bet a 3-1 at a major where half
04:51the field is going to try absolute hardest,
04:53and it's going to be between half the field.
04:55That number is just not good enough for me.
04:57I actually think you can look a little bit further down the board because this is the point of the
05:01season where you want to collect chips of the longer prices
05:06because if Scotty keeps playing like this, I guarantee you he's not going to be 3-1 to win the
05:09Masters.
05:10You're probably going to get 6, maybe 7-1.
05:12That's what happened with Rory Malkeroy, and I was on Rory Malkeroy.
05:15He turned around and he won the tournament at 7.5.
05:18This is kind of a weird one for me.
05:19I didn't know if I was going to get here, but I took Matt Fitzpatrick at 66-1 to win
05:24the Masters.
05:25He only has two top 10s in his Masters history and hasn't had one since 2023,
05:30but to win the Masters, you need to be a really good ball striker,
05:33and right now he's been the best ball striker in golf,
05:37and I'm taking his stats from overseas as well.
05:40If he continues to be the leader on approach,
05:42I think his putter will do enough at Augusta for him to contend.
05:47All I really need for him at 66-1 is contend
05:50because if he keeps playing like he does, he picks up some wins on tour.
05:53By the time he rolls to Augusta, he'll be 30-1.
05:55Look at Justin Rose, right?
05:57He was 60-1 before he won, and now he's all the way down to 30-1.
06:01Rory McIlroy, by the way, show that board again.
06:03Luke, by the way, Rory McIlroy, the winner last year, 7-1.
06:07Bryson DeChambeau, 14-1.
06:09Jon Rahm, who was Scotty Scheffler for a few years at 300 and 400 on the money line.
06:14That's gone.
06:15Fleetwood, 18-1, and Ludwig Oberg at 19-1 as well.
06:21So those are the odds for the Masters.
06:22We still have a long way to go, and as Brad said,
06:24I think that if I'm not mistaken, you got a shot to catch one of these tournaments next year.
06:28Am I not mistaken on that one in Orlando?
06:31Yeah.
06:32Oh, yeah, I do.
06:34Enjoy it if you go.
06:35I got one in Palm Beach coming here soon, too.
06:37Thanks again, Brad, for coming on the show.
06:39Really appreciate it.
06:40We'll catch up again soon.
06:41Thanks for having me.
06:42Take care.
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