00:00Prediction Markets Edge on the early line. It is a Friday. The Masters round number two currently
00:06underway right now. Some of the bigger boys going to be getting underway in just a few moments here,
00:10but a long day. And then we get to cut down day, moving day, championship day on Sunday. And away
00:16we go. But Joe, Kelsey Marketplace wants to know the Masters end of round two leader. Could it be
00:21Rory McIlroy? He's currently trading at a 35% chance to get that done. Sam Burns is also tied
00:27with Rory at five under. He's at a 19% chance to get it done. Scotty Sheff was on there.
00:32Patrick
00:32Reed and Jason Day. By the way, Patrick Reed and Jason Day, along with Kirk Kitayama, all three
00:37under par. But the favorite, Joe, as is, it's the returning champion, Rory McIlroy.
00:43Well, I mean, I'm looking at the weather report here for today as well. And, you know, there's
00:48really not a lot of difference between the guys teeing off at 8 a.m., Donnie, and the guys that
00:53are going to be teeing off in the afternoon here at the 12 or 2 p.m. Temperatures in the
00:57mid-70s, no wind, relative humidity. It's just absolutely gorgeous weather, which means
01:05these guys are going to have to beat the golf course, which means, as far as I'm concerned,
01:10it's going to be one of the guys that knows this golf course better than anybody. And I
01:14always, round two, stay within the current top ten after round one. Guys like Justin Rose,
01:20guys like Scottie Scheffler, even Rory. Would anybody be shocked if Rory goes out and shoots
01:2667-67? I know I wouldn't. So, you know, Sam Burns' biggest issues are going to be on Sunday.
01:33They're not going to be on Friday. So, you know, you could take a shot at a couple of different
01:38guys here and likely still come out ahead here in this market. Yeah, I find it really interesting
01:42with Rory, too, because you heard, like, even the pre-tournal, like, man, just like last year,
01:46finally I got my jacket. Boy, now I'm coming back as the champion, like, sort of, like, just
01:50be able to decompress, put on my jacket, have the champion's dinner, and we'll see what happens.
01:55And he's in the first round lead, which you know, Joe, which means at night when he goes to bed
01:59last
01:59night, like, let's go out and just scorched earth again. Why don't we go on the Sunday with a five
02:03shot lead here and just walk away with another green jacket? Maybe he can do that. But Joe, there's
02:07a way if I told you, you can make a 10 cent profit here. Would you be interested? How about
02:12a hundred
02:12dollar investment to make the cut on Scotty Scheffler on Polymarket? That $100 investment
02:18would pay back $100.10, Joe? How about that investment? I would be more interested in the
02:27yes or no market with John Rahm. I want to know whether John Rahm, do we think Rahm makes it?
02:34And
02:34I think currently it's about 50-50, I think. And I think there's some value in the know here.
02:41Coming back from six under, the cut is likely going to be under par. I don't see him. I'm
02:49sorry. I just don't see him going that low here today and making the cut. So I would look
02:54to fade Rahm here in this spot. Yeah. Let's see what happens with him today because he's
02:59known that, hey, I didn't play so well. It seemed like this guy, Scotty Scheffler's out
03:02of the tournament. Wait a second. Scotty's back up in the top 10. We're not saying he could
03:05do that, but we've seen it before. Didn't play well. Then just got real aggressive on day
03:09number two, like a boom or bust, and had maybe a big boom day. We'll feel Rahm can handle
03:13that here. Masters, top 10 finishers here in the Kelsey marketplace. Of course, Rory's
03:18going to be one of the favorites, trading at 85%. He has Scotty Scheffler at 83%,
03:22Shawfully at 65%. Now, most people say, yeah, well, Rory's going to finish in the top 10 because
03:27he's tied for the lead on day number one, Joe. But if you did take a no contract out on
03:31that, $100 wage will pay 527. Now, understand what we're asking you here. It's not to win the
03:36tournament, Joe, but it's also not just to make the cut. It's the top 10, which is still
03:39tough to do. Rory could go out today and shoot a plus two, and all of a sudden, you're in
03:44jeopardy
03:44of a top 20 at that point. How about a no contract, Joe, thinking maybe counterproductive to what
03:50you saw yesterday? Yeah, there's some really good prices up on the board here in that market,
03:56Donnie. I mean, listen, I'm looking at currently Justin Rose about 50-50 to make the top. Yes,
04:03Justin Rose is making. He makes the top 10 every year in the Masters here. I think that Jason Day
04:09is also fascinating playing some great golf. Can he do it for four in a row? And what about
04:15Kurt Kitayama? Does anybody really think Kurt Kitayama is going to play this tournament and
04:19finish in the top 10? Because if you do, that's a pretty good price. He's currently sitting right
04:24at the top of the leaderboard. Head to head with a three-shot lead right now. That's Rory
04:30McElroy versus Scottie Scheffler here. A 50s only, Joe, I should say. A 56% chance that Rory
04:35beats Scottie Scheffler in the head-to-head market, which probably means one of these two guys would
04:40win the championship here for the Masters. But how about that? Three-shot lead for Rory,
04:44the returning champion? And people are like, yeah, Scottie's still lurking even though it's three
04:48shots. I mean, this might be the only time we'll see all year long where you can get Scottie
04:55Scheffler at even or just plus money here against anybody. So yeah, I think Scheffler has got a
05:01pretty good shot. Even though he's three down heading into round two, I like him to beat Rory
05:06in this spot. I got to tell you, too, you take a look even at the Masters champion list here
05:10at
05:10Cal Sheen, who's going to win this? Like, Scottie Scheffler opened the tournament, let's call it five to
05:14one. So $100 investment pays back $500. He's three shots back, and they're still like, yeah,
05:18that's actually a really good day, day number one for Scottie. $100 investment still pays back $500
05:23on the Cal Sheen marketplace at this point. Scheffler's on their burns, Justin Rhodes,
05:27Patrick Reed, but the top of the leaderboard, it's Rory versus Scottie here.
05:31And that's likely exactly what it's going to come down to on Sunday.
05:36Love it. We would love to see him. We'll update you back on Monday when this tournament is final,
05:40but that'll do it for this week's edition of Fixing Markets Edge.
05:43Catch you Monday. Enjoy your weekend.
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