00:00The high pressure that's brought a lot of calm settled, not totally dry, but largely settled weather to much of
00:06the UK for quite a while.
00:08Well, it couldn't last forever, could it? And through the next 10 days, we're going to see it breaking down.
00:13Currently, the jet stream is meandering to the north of the UK.
00:16We have this big area of high pressure over us sitting just to the north of the country with, yes,
00:21some brisk easterly winds and a bit more cloud and a few showers coming in, particularly towards some southern areas.
00:26But on the whole, it has been pretty calm and pretty dry as well.
00:31As we go through the next 24 hours or so, that theme continues.
00:35But I did want to highlight an area in the southwest.
00:39We are going to see a little bit of forcing coming in across the southwest as we go through Thursday,
00:44particularly later Thursday overnight and into Friday.
00:46So that brings the likelihood of some fairly frequent showery rain, could be a bit heavy, could even be a
00:52bit thundery at times overnight into Friday.
00:55Now, the detail of the showery bursts of rain, it's a little bit tricky.
00:59And so don't lose hope if you do have fireworks plans, either Thursday night or perhaps Friday night.
01:04There will be some rain around, yes, but you may be lucky enough to avoid it.
01:08All the while, there will be a couple of showers across some other parts, particularly towards the east and cloud
01:13here and there.
01:14And it's very much still a case of chasing the cloud.
01:17Where we get the clearer skies overnight, it will be chilly and there'll be some fog around where the cloud
01:21lingers by day.
01:22It's actually going to feel pretty cool indeed.
01:24So still some showery bursts of rain through Friday evening across parts of the southwest in particular and a few
01:30spots of rain here and there.
01:31Then through the weekend, the focus of the wetter weather is going to shift a little bit further northwards.
01:37However, this is the Met Office model here.
01:39And it's perhaps a little quick pushing that rain into parts of northern England and parts of Scotland.
01:45Nonetheless, I think as we go through towards Sunday, it is going to be wetter across northern parts than it
01:49has been recently.
01:50And further south, well, a mixed setup, really.
01:54There'll be some showery bursts here and there.
01:56But again, as I mentioned before, we will need to be chasing the cloud.
02:00Where we see brightness developing by day, not feeling too bad, especially considering it's early November.
02:06But if you get stuck under the cloud by day, it's going to feel quite cold.
02:10And where we see the skies clearing overnight, that's where we're going to have a touch of frost and also
02:15a bit of fog patches.
02:16So a similar theme to what we've had for the last couple of days.
02:19But yes, just watch out for those showery bursts of rain Thursday into Friday, perhaps even into Saturday across parts
02:24of the southwest in particular.
02:26Thereafter, and this is when we're going to start to see a bit of a change.
02:30The high pressure, you can see it becoming, well, less defined.
02:35The winds are dropping out.
02:36So that actually increases the likelihood of mist and fog developing overnight.
02:41And then it is being eroded away from the southwest.
02:46It's clearing away towards the east.
02:48And so as we go through into next week, we're going to see two things happening.
02:53Low pressure coming up from the southwest, and that's going to bring something perhaps a bit wetter and windier, yes,
02:58but also milder air making its way in.
03:01However, at the same time, there's colder air coming down from the north.
03:05And exactly which of these will win out and exactly how far north the milder air will get and how
03:09far south the colder air will get, well, that's still a little bit uncertain.
03:13But it's fair to say that we are going to see a change in our weather through as we go
03:18into next week, shifting away from the high pressure, which has been so dominant for quite a while.
03:24We can see that if we look at our most likely pressure setups through the next two weeks, red indicating
03:30high pressure, the main story.
03:32Yes, there is some showery rain, like I mentioned, in the southwest.
03:35So it's not totally dry, but generally a pretty calm, settled theme.
03:39But as we go through the next two weeks, we can really see the blues becoming more likely, and that
03:45indicates that lower pressure will be nearby, and therefore things will be a bit more unsettled.
03:49There will be some wetter, some windier weather at times as well.
03:52We can look at that in another way.
03:54I've got two members from ECMWF, and if we run through next week, they start off showing a similar idea.
04:00The high pressure across us currently gets eroded away, and there's low pressure coming in from the southwest.
04:05You can see that on both the top and the bottom one, but towards the end of the week, that's
04:10when there's a bit of a discrepancy.
04:12If we look at this northern one, this actually brings a deepish area of low pressure quite close to the
04:18northeast of the UK, and if this comes off with high pressure out in the west, well, that could bring
04:23quite cold northerly air across the UK.
04:26So we could really see temperatures dropping, but if we compare it to the other member that I have down
04:31here, that low pressure is a little bit further away, high pressure building in from the west instead.
04:36And so whilst there would still be this cold northerly flow to the east of us, actually over the UK,
04:40it wouldn't be as chilly, and it would be largely dry.
04:45So quite a difference in fortunes, depending on exactly the position of the low and the high, and so that's
04:51definitely something that we need to watch out for.
04:52But nonetheless, I am expecting some more changeable weather before then, as we are going to see some wetter weather
04:58coming in from the south, mainly during the middle part of next week.
05:03I did want to highlight forecast confidence, because recently it's actually been a fair bit higher than average.
05:09That's not too surprising, with high pressure being so dominant, that's a little bit easier to forecast.
05:15However, as we go through the rest of this 10-day or even this 14-day period, confidence is much
05:23lower than average for this stage.
05:25In fact, by the end of next week, confidence is really near rock bottom.
05:28This doesn't mean we have no idea about what's going to happen, it just means that there's variability and there
05:34are some fairly different possibilities, like I've just shown you.
05:37We could have that cold northerly bringing some cold and also perhaps wintry weather, but we could also have high
05:43pressure across us.
05:44So different stories, but it's a little bit still all to play for.
05:48We can see that in another way if we look at the temperatures as we go through the next two
05:53weeks.
05:54And if we take Exeter, somewhere in the south to start off with, and temperatures, well, rocking around average for
06:00the time being.
06:01But whilst there's a fairly large spread, and you can see the uncertainty really increases through next week,
06:07the general trend is we're more likely to see something a bit warmer developing as that milder air comes in
06:14from the south.
06:14I showed you that milder air arriving through Monday, Tuesday time, and that pushes its way in.
06:18So likely to see something a bit warmer. But if we head further north, the signal's even more uncertain.
06:25Taking Leeds, for example, a gradual drop in temperatures as we go deeper into November, and then through next week,
06:32there's quite a spread.
06:33We could see that warmer, milder air coming in, or we could see that colder air from the north digging
06:38down, and so we see a drop in our temperatures.
06:41And then if we take Aberdeen, somewhere across the north, and this indicates more likely that we'll see that drop
06:47in temperatures coming down with that more northerly cold air making its way through.
06:52But still, a large spread in possibilities as we head towards the end of next week.
06:57So, things that I'm fairly confident about, the high pressure that's been around for such a long time, that is
07:02going to get eroded away.
07:03There will be low pressure. There will be milder air coming in from the south.
07:06There will be some wetter weather as well. But exactly how far north that milder air gets, how much rain
07:12we see, and how much any of that colder air towards the north makes its way in, well, that's still
07:17a bit uncertain.
07:17So, something that we'll be keeping you on top of as we get nearer the time. Bye-bye.
