10 Day Trend 19/03/2025 – Unsettled weekend, will it last? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 19/03/2025.  After such a dry start to March, rain at the weekend may be welcomed by some. But is it the start of a more unsettled period of weather?  Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.

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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. It has been a remarkably dry March

00:05so far. We are currently 58% of the way through the month, but the UK has only experienced

00:1117% of its average rainfall. But regionally, many places have experienced significantly

00:17less than that. And at the moment, it stays dry for the next couple of days for the vast

00:22majority, but it is all about to change because of this area of low pressure currently bringing

00:26some very unsettled weather to Iberia. That's going to head our way. Now, ahead of that

00:32low on Thursday, we're going to see southerly winds bring actually quite widespread sunshine

00:37and warmth, stark contrast to the cold weather heading into Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. So

00:42it could be said that on Thursday, the UK is one of the sunniest and indeed warmest

00:47parts of Europe, with temperatures widely in the mid to high teens and in some spots

00:5220 or 21 Celsius, the first time this year so far that we're likely to see 20 Celsius.

00:59But there will be some patchy cloud building, perhaps even the odd shower. The vast majority

01:04of the UK, though, dry and bright and we keep the clear spells going into Thursday evening.

01:08The wind picks up, particularly towards the southwest and the first signs of a change

01:12there for Cornwall as showery rain moves in by midnight and some heavy downpours by dawn,

01:17and even some thunderstorms, mostly offshore to the far southwest. With that wet weather

01:23arriving in the southwest and the breeze picking up, actually most of England and Wales will

01:27be frost free first thing Friday, just a touch of frost in some sheltered spots across central

01:33and northern Scotland. Otherwise, a less chilly start to Friday compared with recent mornings.

01:38A bit more cloud in the sky certainly, and the thickest cloud will continue to be across

01:42the southwest with spells of rain moving through, perhaps easing off for a time in the morning

01:47before the rain pushes into parts of Northern Ireland, Wales and eventually the south and

01:51southwest once again. But further north and east, well, it stays dry, it stays bright

01:57and it stays mild, but it's going to be increasingly windy. So although we'll have temperatures

02:03again up to the high teens, it perhaps will feel a bit cooler, particularly around the

02:07east coast with that strengthening wind. The wind will continue to strengthen. Wind gusts

02:10over the higher parts of Scotland, 50 miles an hour or so, and we're likely to see gales

02:16developing in the far north-east of Scotland overnight as this low starts to move in and

02:21the ice bars tighten up. And it's this low that will be with us through the weekend.

02:25So having seen so much sunshine through the week, I'm afraid to say that we are more likely

02:30to see cloudier skies and outbreaks of rain into the weekend. It won't be a complete washout,

02:34although for Northern Ireland that's the wettest place on Saturday. Some persistent and heavy

02:38rain expected here, a risk of 50mm in places. That's going to make it feel disappointingly

02:43cool. But elsewhere, some warmth and some bright weather in the east of the UK, albeit

02:50more cloud in the sky compared with recent days. And certainly a lot of showers around,

02:54especially towards the west and the south, some more persistent rain. As I say, Northern

02:59Ireland, parts of western Scotland as well. Some heavy downpours, particularly for South

03:04Wales and the south-west, interspersed by some brighter spells. So all in all, turning

03:09much more unsettled on Saturday. And we continue in the same vein through Sunday. I think slightly

03:14different areas affected by the spells of rain. It looks likely that we'll see a lot

03:18of low cloud coming in from the North Sea to affect eastern parts and some rain and

03:21drizzles and persistent damp weather. 8 degrees on the coast there, so much cooler compared

03:26with the next day or so. And towards the south, the winds could come together to provide a

03:31line of showers across southern counties of England, perhaps even the old thunderstorm

03:37with some heavy downpours about. These, again, will be hit and miss, so some places could

03:42avoid them and stay dry. The driest weather, though, by Sunday will be across western Scotland

03:46and Northern Ireland, some brightness reappearing, although much cooler compared with the next

03:51couple of days, temperatures back to 9 or 10 Celsius. And that says a ridge of high

03:55pressure builds in. Now, by Monday, that ridge crosses the country and tends to sit to the

04:00south, with these areas of low pressure starting to head towards the north of the country.

04:05That's how we start off next week. But zooming out, you can see how weak and meandering the

04:10jet stream is, a typical occurrence at this time of year, of course, in the spring. The

04:15temperature contrast across the Northern Hemisphere isn't as large as in the autumn and winter,

04:21and that means the jet stream tends to be weaker and tends to twist a little bit more

04:26on its journey across the Northern Hemisphere. That makes it tricky to forecast weather patterns

04:32beyond five or six days, because there are less solid aspects of the weather to grasp

04:38hold of. But there are some patterns emerging in the trend for next week, and they are illustrated

04:45in general terms by this chart. This shows the probability of various weather patterns

04:51going out to the next couple of weeks. The summary, basically, of more than 250 computer

04:57model simulations in which each of those simulations for each day is given a weather pattern that

05:03it represents. And I want to draw your attention to a few aspects of this. We'll go through

05:07it in pieces over the next couple of minutes. But the first thing I want to draw your attention

05:13to is this increase in this shade of blue around the latter part of the weekend and

05:18early next week. And this shade of blue here represents northwesterly weather patterns.

05:24Now, what does that look like? It looks something like this, with high pressure towards the

05:28south and southwest and northwest of the airflow, bringing showers with the greatest chance

05:33of rain or showers across the north and northwest of Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland, perhaps

05:38into some other northwestern parts of the UK. So, that's where you're likely to see

05:41some more changeable weather, some showers or longer spells of rain, but drier elsewhere.

05:46And in fact, in terms of unsettled weather, it's looking fairly typical for the UK in

05:52March with average temperatures and showery rain at times, but nothing particularly impactful.

05:59Now, this is the most likely weather pattern for Tuesday 25th March. This is the second

06:03most likely weather pattern, a similar percentage in fact, and it shows more of a northerly

06:07airflow, so it would be cooler in this situation with the showers more likely across the northern

06:13two-thirds of the UK into the North Sea coast. But they're both similar weather patterns

06:17basically, northwesterlies or northerlies, showery weather dispersed by bright spells.

06:22And with a bit more of a breeze compared with this week and a bit more cloud in the sky,

06:28I expect overnight temperatures won't be as low. We won't see those widespread frosts,

06:32although a touch of frost is likely in some shelter spots where we get cloud breaks. But

06:37conversely, by day, because we've got a cooler wind direction with northwesterlies or northerlies,

06:42daytime temperatures will be a little lower, around average or slightly below depending

06:46on the precise wind direction. And this summarises Thursday 27th March and the top three possible

06:54weather patterns. The most likely is that we'll have low pressure somewhere to the north-west

06:58of the UK. Average temperatures, that's what these colours are showing, the warmth further

07:03east across Europe. And again, showers or longer spells of rain, particularly towards

07:08the west and the north-west. There are two other patterns that are likely for Thursday

07:14as well. So, they show higher pressure ridging in from the south-west with slightly milder

07:19air. But at the same time, there's another weather pattern that is coming through in

07:24the computer models, which is low pressure in the North Sea and more of a northerly flavour

07:28with low average temperatures. All in all, these are all relatively similar patterns

07:33with weak lows coming through in the model output, tending to be towards the north or

07:39the east of the UK and generally showery weather. Typical springtime weather patterns. And like

07:45I say, not quite as warm by day, but not quite as chilly and frosty by night. But it's at

07:52this stage that this probability chart gets a lot more complicated. There are a lot more

07:57colours getting involved at this stage. However, one thing that we can pick out is the emergence

08:02of these darker reds for the last few days of March and into April. And that represents

08:08higher pressure to the north. So, after we see these weak northwesterlies, showery conditions

08:14through next week and average temperatures, the trend – and we can extend it through

08:19the next six weeks, the same chart, but for six weeks of weather – this shows first

08:25week of April, second week, third week and fourth week. And what you can really see from

08:30this chart is that the dark reds become much more dominant into the start of April and

08:36throughout much of that month. Although, of course, at this time of year, it is very

08:40difficult to confidently say what the weather is going to be like beyond a week to ten days.

08:46But that's one signal that's coming through. Higher pressure to the north. And that's certainly

08:52the case when you look at the model output from the European model. This is a summary

08:55of all the different simulations from the European model. And for the first week of

08:59April, it's got higher pressure to the west and northwest of the UK, lower pressure over

09:04the continent towards the southeast. So, more of a northeasterly wind, but drier weather

09:09coming into the north, perhaps some unsettled weather into the south and southeast. The

09:13second week of April, similar sort of thing, but with the high pressure trending more towards

09:19the north, low pressure towards the south. And in fact, for the Met Office output, it's

09:24a similar sort of theme. This is the first week of April, high pressure to the north.

09:29Second week of April, again, high pressure to the north, perhaps a little bit further

09:32north with lower pressure coming in, perhaps a bit more to the south. So, yes, a lot of

09:38uncertainty through next week about how this transition will occur. We go from northwest

09:44of these and showery weather with average temperatures at the start of next week towards

09:49more blocked weather patterns. And by blocked, I mean, we're not likely to see a raging Atlantic

09:54jet stream bring low after low, etc. But we're likely to see a slow moving area of high pressure.

10:00And that high pressure is most likely to begin to sit towards the north of the UK.

10:05That's where the driest weather is likely to end up as we go into April with low pressure

10:11towards the south. And the main uncertainty at that stage would be how much the high to

10:17the north will influence things across the whole of the country and how much the low

10:20to the south could bring some more unsettled weather into southern parts. So, yes, at this

10:26time of year, the weather quite fickle and quite difficult to predict more than a week

10:31or so ahead. But that seems to be the general trend and we will keep you updated, of course,

10:36right here at the Met Office.

10 Day Trend 19/03/2025 – Unsettled weekend, will it last?

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