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00:00How about this on Sunday?
00:01I don't know how many big plays we're going to get going up against that Houston Texans defense,
00:04but Arizona's going to show up in Houston at NRG Stadium as a 9.5 to 10-point underdog now
00:10in the marketplace in the total, Joe, of 42.5.
00:14Brissette in a lost year for Arizona.
00:16He likes to drop back and pass.
00:17That's a nasty defense.
00:19But also understand this.
00:20Both running backs banged up for Houston coming into the week here,
00:23not practicing so far early on.
00:25Thursday and Friday practice reports are very important.
00:27We'll find out.
00:27But, Joe, what's your spread line for Arizona and Houston today?
00:31Well, the look-ahead line, Donnie, was 6.5.
00:33Yeah.
00:34And now we're 9.5 because why?
00:37What?
00:37Like, why?
00:38Because they barely won a game against Kansas City on the road.
00:42And, listen, Arizona getting smoked by the Rams is not really anything to shake your head at.
00:49I'm not discounting the Cardinals because the Rams ran them.
00:53Of course the Rams ran them over here.
00:55I think it's too much of an adjustment.
00:57And, listen, C.J.
00:58Stroud's been in the NFL, Donnie, for four years.
01:01Do you know the highest he's ever been a favorite at?
01:04Minus eight.
01:06And that was the Titans last year who have always been horrible.
01:10Now, all of a sudden, I'm supposed to believe that he should be laying close to 10 with that offense?
01:16No.
01:17I think there's a reason why we're starting to see some buyback now.
01:20I think this probably lands eight, eight and a half when it's all said and done.
01:25So, if you like Arizona, grab the points while you can.
01:27J-E-T-S.
01:30Jets, Jets, Jets.
01:31This weekend, Sunday at 1 o'clock.
01:33Opening line, eight and a half.
01:34I should have said the look-ahead line.
01:36We're up close to two touchdowns now at 13 and a half at just about every place you're shopping.
01:40And a total, which opened 43 and a half, actually dropped to 41 and a half.
01:44Why?
01:44Did you watch Brady Cook come in in, you know, extra time, as I like to say, after the injury to Tyrod Taylor?
01:49He bowed out on the season with a groin injury.
01:52It was bad.
01:52He got sacked a lot.
01:54Jacksonville's playing well.
01:55And also, Brees Hall, he said yesterday, hey, man, my knee hurts right now.
01:59Woo-hoo!
02:00Spread line for your Jets in this game is what, Joe?
02:03Guys are making business decisions now, Donnie, this time of year.
02:07Week 15.
02:08But here's the other problem.
02:10Much like Houston, these are, Jacksonville's being priced at the top of the market right now.
02:16Both Houston and Jacksonville are being priced over the, like, we've never seen before.
02:22And very much like Stroud, when you look at Trevor Lawrence, he's never been this big a favorite in his career, Donnie.
02:30He's never, nobody in the market has ever looked at Trevor Lawrence and been like, wow, he's going to win by two touchdowns.
02:36That doesn't happen here.
02:38So, again, it's not great.
02:41The look-ahead line here was eight and a half, nine.
02:45But now, of course, it's up to 11 and a half.
02:47We'll go up.
02:48Donnie, I only see this line continuing to rise.
02:51My question is, do we trust Trevor Lawrence and the Jags at this price?
02:56I don't know.
02:57Look, at least if you had Justin Fields, you have a quarterback that's taking snaps and can run around a little bit, slow the game down, maybe keep it in there.
03:03But watching Brady Cook, you know two things.
03:05He's going to throw the football, might be a completion, it might be a turnover, and you know he's going to get sacked six times in this game.
03:11Tough sledding here for the Jets.
03:12Quick one here, Buffalo and New England, a one-and-a-half point favorite now for Buffalo.
03:15This has been bouncing back and forth who the favorite is on each side, Joe.
03:19What's your spread line for Buffalo and New England this week in a monster game in the AFC East?
03:23The market is split, Donnie.
03:25That's exactly what you need to know here.
03:27I mean, you know, in some places, New England was a slight favorite.
03:31Some places, Buffalo was a slight favorite.
03:34And I don't think what you see here is exactly what you are going to get.
03:39So don't expect a better number.
03:41If you like a team, bet them now.
03:43NFL News and Notes coming up next on a Thursday edition of the Early Line right here on the Sports Grid Network.
03:48NFL News and Notes this weekend, and we're going to start with the Kansas City Chiefs.
03:53We love to start with the Chiefs.
03:54Why?
03:54Because it's Travis Kelsey, it's Patrick Mahomes, it's Andy Reid.
03:57They always play in the AFC Championship game, which means they win that and move on to the Super Bowl.
04:01But here's what we're finding this week.
04:02How about this viable option for them to actually miss out on the playoffs?
04:06And it starts this week where they can be eliminated.
04:09And the scenario isn't crazy.
04:10You know, sometimes you always see like 16 things need to happen this weekend for some team to win, get in,
04:15or, you know, things to fall in their favor.
04:16Remember, one scenario to put them out, the Chiefs lose.
04:19They're playing a pretty good football team in the Chargers where they're favored by about five and a half points.
04:23The Bills win.
04:24They can beat New England.
04:25The Jaguars win.
04:26Layup against the Jets.
04:27The Texans win.
04:28Supposed to be a layup as well for them this weekend.
04:31How about the Chiefs eliminated with weeks to play in the regular season?
04:35Who would have saw this coming?
04:38Well, you know, a lot of people have been hoping for this and crossing their fingers, Donnie, and wishing it to be true.
04:44But the crazy part is they're not dead yet.
04:48They have a 12% chance, I believe.
04:52But they got to win their next four games.
04:55And then they are going to need a little bit of help.
04:58And ironically enough, they would need a lot of help from the Broncos, which is crazy enough.
05:03Adam Schefter tweeted out yesterday, NFL announced it will return to Munich, Germany in 2026 and 2028 to play the regular season games.
05:12There's part of a multi-year partnership with the City of Munich and FC Bayern Munich.
05:18There you go, Joe.
05:19Moo!
05:20International games on deck.
05:22It's not going to stop there.
05:24But again, we talked about this yesterday, Donnie.
05:27Send New Orleans.
05:29You want to send the Titans the next couple of years?
05:31Like, send some of these teams that nobody is going to care not having a home game.
05:36Because, my goodness, stop sending the league's best and, you know, depriving those fans, Donnie, of an opportunity to see a home game.
05:45How about the opportunity to see Brady Cook at quarterback?
05:48You're probably going to get that if you are a Jets fan this week.
05:51And that's why they're two touchdown underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
05:54Ian Rappaport tweets out yesterday, Jets coach Aaron Glenn tells reporters that Tyrod Taylor, his groin, and Justin Fields' knee won't practice today.
06:01By the way, for a knee injury that really wasn't severe at all, being treated like we don't want you to play quarterback and stand on the sideline,
06:08a lot of that going around in the NFL with quarterbacks who weren't really injured, but the team's saying, no, no, no, kid, you're injured.
06:16Yeah, he's injured.
06:18There is, again, this time of year, Donnie, gets very tricky with some of these teams that know they got nothing else going on here, right?
06:27Week 15, business decisions being made, coaches being like, no, you're not available, kid.
06:33Or, yeah, you're going to be just fine.
06:36So, tread carefully here because some of these – not only are you expecting the Jets to be horrible this week,
06:44but you're expecting the Jags to be superhuman to win by more than two touchdowns.
06:49And, my goodness, this is a tricky time of year in the NFL.
06:54Fire up ETN.
06:55Fire up Tootin.
06:56Get him in the end zone.
06:57Run that clock out and get out of Dodge here.
06:59I tell you, he might be running the clock out on their career.
07:01It could be Travis Kelsey.
07:02Quoted yesterday – I'm going to read this quote, Joe.
07:04I'm going to fill and let me know if I got the words right.
07:06It's really tough.
07:07It's a tough reality knowing the Chiefs are very likely going to miss the playoffs.
07:12It's a silly freaking feeling.
07:14Did I get that right?
07:16Yes.
07:16I think you're right there.
07:18You might have missed a vowel or something.
07:19But, yes, no, it's – I bet it is.
07:23You know, because if you have been spoiled and it's become part of your every season routine
07:29to just get ready for the postseason, but you'll have plenty of time to plan some trips there.
07:34You're with Taylor, so don't worry about it.
07:36By the way, like Travis Kelsey, like I thought this was a legitimate chance that he was going
07:40to retire after the Super Bowl and didn't.
07:42I'm surprised he didn't come out and say I'm going to play one more year, give it my all.
07:44It's pretty clear he's not the same football player, and rightfully so, in his mid-30s
07:47playing tight end, one of the best to do it of all time.
07:50But if they miss out on the playoffs, like is he going to play the final games
07:52and then come back for another year next year?
07:55Like sometimes the greats of the game, Joe, want their flowers.
07:57Like, hey, this is my last year.
07:58I'm going to enjoy it.
07:58You enjoy it with me.
08:00Do we get a retirement at the end of the season for Kelsey?
08:02Because I feel like it's coming.
08:03Like, why would he come back?
08:05It feels like, Donnie, we get one of those mid-year signings.
08:10Like, we won't see him for the first eight games, nine games, and then all of a sudden
08:15if Kansas City is in contention, you know, we might go ahead and get a whiff of Travis
08:21because that appears to be the thing, Donnie, doesn't it?
08:23Like guys who retire, then un-retire and come back.
08:26Yeah, that's apparently the thing.
08:28So let's see why I wouldn't count him out that we'll never see him again, but we may
08:33not see him to start next season.
08:35A lot of good Jalen Hurts has done to Philadelphia Eagles in the past couple of years.
08:39Super Bowl MVP, multiple Super Bowl chances there, a Super Bowl championship as they got
08:43it.
08:43Nick Sirianni said on the radio, no chance that Jalen Hurts is going to be benched.
08:47But by the way, if Jalen Hurts didn't play the last three games, I think the Eagles would
08:51be 3-0 in those games, though.
08:52Just saying, Joe.
08:53Oh, wow, how the mighty have fallen when the Eagles fans turn on their quarterback.
09:00It's getting ugly in Philly, folks.
09:03When your boy DRS has to go live during an Eagles game to yell at the Eagles, you know
09:08it's getting serious.
09:09More NFL topics including tonight's Thursday Night Football game.
09:12More NFL news and notes before we get to that game on Thursday night between the Atlanta Falcons
09:16and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
09:18Geno Smith is unlikely to start versus the Philadelphia Eagles, which means can he pick it?
09:23He's going to be able to get a start in Philadelphia.
09:25For those trivia people that don't understand, Kenny Pickett played in the Super Bowl.
09:30Kenny Pickett took the final knee down.
09:31Kenny Pickett got a ring for the Eagles.
09:33Kenny Pickett now found himself, it feels like, on 10 different teams in that time frame
09:36now is with the Vegas Raiders.
09:38Who'll start?
09:40Let me tell you something.
09:41Kenny Pickett comes to the link at a 1 o'clock game for a dead Raiders team and puts up a
09:44fight.
09:45It's going to be some mayhem in the city, Joe.
09:47It will be.
09:48Oh, there's going to be plenty of mayhem in the city there.
09:52But listen, if I'm Pickett, I'm fired up, right?
09:55You know, I got no problem coming out there and trying to at least, you know, hold his own,
10:02Donnie, right?
10:03I mean, more than anything else.
10:04They may not win the game, but at least be competitive.
10:07And I think that's all, if you're a Raiders fan, you're hoping for is just be competitive
10:12here and show us just how bad Geno Smith really was.
10:16How about this story that came out yesterday?
10:18I was able to fire out a tweet because one of my favorite things I remember as a kid,
10:20I used to be somewhat of a Dolphins fan growing up.
10:2313, my favorite number in the mid 80s, Dan Marino, the Miami Dolphins, number 13, had
10:26his jerseys.
10:27But Brian Cox for the Dolphins is always a wild man out there.
10:30When he played the Buffalo Bills and came out with, you know, the middle fingers blazing to
10:34the fans, that's always going to be ingrained in me.
10:37And by the way, he got fired yesterday.
10:39But listen to this report here.
10:40I'm going to read this tweet.
10:41Mike Kafka can decline to share any details on what led to the firing of assistant defensive
10:45coach Brian Cox during the bye week.
10:47Sources say the final straw was Cox's reaction to sitting arrangements on the plane on the
10:53flight home, Joe.
10:54Like, hey, Brian, you know, like we moved the assistants to the back.
10:59I'm not getting up.
11:00You're not getting up.
11:01No, I'm not getting up here.
11:02All right.
11:02Well, you're gone.
11:03Is that how it went?
11:04Well, he was a lot of fun with the Jets, too.
11:08He has been a lot of fun everywhere he has gone.
11:12But, you know, given the state and how terrible that this that his Giants defense has been,
11:19I would tend to think that, yeah, not a great loss there.
11:23But once again, it just goes to show you, you're letting Kafka and others, you know,
11:28fire everybody here on an interim basis.
11:31It's very interesting, Donnie, the power he is wielding right now with that team.
11:37The power he is wielding is funny because, again, it does like to curse a lot in that.
11:41Is it Netflix that's doing it or Amazon Prime, whatever the in-season?
11:44By the way, in-season doesn't work.
11:46The preseason one doesn't work on hard knocks.
11:48It's like, I am a huge Eagles fan.
11:50I've never watched any one of their in-season products, not for one second here.
11:54Just focus on the seed.
11:55Like, I saw it play out already.
11:56Why do I have to go back and see what some of their meetings are about?
11:59Nonsense stuff here.
12:00But by the way, Joe, we've got a Thursday night football game tonight.
12:02NFC South battle.
12:04Because why?
12:04Not because Atlanta Falcons.
12:05They're already out of the playoffs.
12:06They've been eliminated.
12:07The Tampa Bay Buccaneers going toe-to-toe with the Carolina Panthers here for supremacy in the South.
12:12But how about this, Joe?
12:14The boys are back in town.
12:15You see that graphic about to pop up?
12:17Minus four and a half as a favorite towards the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
12:20A total of 44 and a half.
12:22But look at the wide receiver trio we're expected tonight.
12:25Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Egg Buka, and in the backfield, Bucky Irving, along with Baker Mayfield.
12:31The boys are back in town tonight for Tampa.
12:35The healthiest they've been, Joe, in quite some time.
12:39Yeah, but, you know, I mean, we're dealing with rust here.
12:42Like, how effective are they going to be?
12:45I mean, that's the problem here, Donnie, is that, you know, it's great to have you back.
12:50But when's the last time we've seen these guys, you know, and how healthy are they?
12:55Not to mention divisional games, short week.
12:58It's tough.
12:59You know, I tend to usually wait a week when guys like this come back and say, let them get their legs under them.
13:05And then look to get involved with Tampa maybe next week here ahead of the game.
13:10But listen, they have an opportunity.
13:13They can't afford to waste any more time, Donnie, because Carolina is right on their heels.
13:19So this should be a very entertaining and interesting game here tonight.
13:24Yeah.
13:24Drake London's going to be out as he's been for the past couple weeks.
13:26So there's no reason to rush him back or do anything there if one of your future players here is not up to par when your season is already down the drain.
13:33Kyle Pitts, we'll see if he goes.
13:35Maybe Pitts doesn't go.
13:35I don't even know who the heck they're throwing the football to.
13:38But that line still sits at four and a half for a reason, Joe.
13:40If we look at the touchdown markets, and we'll start there before we take a look at some other props.
13:44B. John Robinson, minus 140, certainly makes some sense.
13:46Bucky Irving, who is the lead back in that back.
13:49We're going to have a trio going, obviously, with Tucker and also – who's the other guy missing that?
13:54Who's the other back?
13:55It's Tucker.
13:56It is –
13:58What are we talking about?
14:00Rashad White.
14:00Rashad White, yes.
14:01Yeah, you have the three-headed monster there.
14:03It's about a brain slip right there.
14:04So Bucky's plus 120, Evans plus 160, Ibuka plus 185, Kyle Pitts plus 210.
14:10If Mike Evans is coming back, he's going to get force-fed the football.
14:13And if he doesn't have a full, let's just say, game slate for him here, the packages for Mike Evans, they're going to be in the red zone.
14:19Maybe a touchdown for Mike Evans.
14:20Welcome back, plus 160 on a Thursday night game.
14:24Not bad.
14:25It's good to have those guys back, but also keep in mind, both starting guards are out for Tampa Bay here tonight.
14:33So it's, you know, can McMillan get involved?
14:38Like, who is – maybe Otten, maybe the tight end is a better look here, too, as well.
14:45But maybe we just throw caution in the wind and say, Kirk Cousins, rushing touchdown.
14:51What do you think here, Donnie?
14:53Could it be?
14:54Let's go – let me take a look here.
14:56Let's go to rushing props here.
14:57Kirk Cousins – yeah, by the way, it would have to be on a quarterback sneak because, right?
15:02It's a half of a yard.
15:04So, yes, if we're on the goal line, let's get that sneak.
15:07If you kill two birds with one stone, one carry, one yard, and one touchdown for Kirk Cousins at that point here.
15:13Kirk Cousins, again, just, you know, playing up the string at this point, aging quarterback, not a lot of weapons.
15:18I don't know how well it goes, but the one thing I do know is both of these defenses do like to blitz, particularly with Todd Bowles.
15:23If you don't have an athletic quarterback and you know where that quarterback's going to be in the pocket, they're going to come after him tonight.
15:28But those rushing yards here, Bijon, 74-1⁄2, Bucky Irvin, 61-1⁄2, Tyler Algier, I always love those secondary options, 28-1⁄2.
15:35Baker Mayfield, 18-1⁄2 is intriguing to me.
15:38You know he is going to be running on third and longs here at this point.
15:42And he looks, Joe, in that player's market here for rushing props.
15:45Yeah, it's, you got to, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
15:49Like, Bijon has been the most consistent for this team.
15:52It hasn't equated to wins, though.
15:54That's the problem, right?
15:55Nobody else seems to be doing their part.
15:58But the one thing that we know is, you know, rushing and receiving yards, Donnie, I wouldn't take an under with him at all.
16:06Because where else are they going with no Drake London?
16:09Because nobody else wants to see him to step up.
16:11It's all him.
16:13And by the way, looking at the receiving props in this game, very rare that you see Kyle Pitts as the leaderboard top guy.
16:20Crazy.
16:21At 59-1⁄2.
16:21There's been so many games like, hey, is this guy going to break out?
16:23Yeah, one catch for six yards.
16:25Congratulations.
16:25He's at 59-1⁄2.
16:27Just to give you a look at some other guys, Mike Evans and Egbuka are behind him, 42-1⁄2 and 48-1⁄2.
16:33Mooney, 36-1⁄2.
16:35Bijan, 39-1⁄2.
16:36Godwin, 39-1⁄2.
16:37So a lot of those guys out here with some even numbers.
16:40Jalen McMillan might be activated tonight.
16:42He's at 10-1⁄2 yards.
16:43David Sills, the fifth, is an interesting one to me.
16:46Because I do think that Tampa Bay wins this game.
16:48He does get targets.
16:50You're not asking for a lot.
16:5120-1⁄2 yards for him.
16:53And he looks, Joe, in the marketplace for you with receiving props tonight.
16:56Well, I mean, it's, you know, listen, Drake London not being available.
17:01He was such a huge part of their offense, Donnie.
17:04I mean, he had a 57% success rate on every, you know, every time he had an opportunity to
17:09make a play.
17:10Sills is about half of that.
17:12But the attempts are there.
17:13And to me, that's what I'm looking for, right?
17:15Just let, if I can get a guy to get enough opportunities and enough balls thrown his way,
17:21yeah, there's a pretty good chance.
17:22I like Sills in this one simply because process of elimination.
17:26Who else is there?
17:29Yeah.
17:29No, you're right about that.
17:30And I always like to say, if we have Baker Mayfield at 2-19-1⁄2 passing yards right
17:34now, Kirk Cousins at 2-0-6-1⁄2.
17:36Somebody has to catch those passes here.
17:39And who is it going to be at this point?
17:40One of the worst things when everybody's lined up the same, like 30 yards, 40 yards, you
17:44take the wrong guy, the other two guys get the 40 yards.
17:46Yeah, we've all been there before.
17:47But passing props tonight, touchdowns, Baker Mayfield throwing them, minus 136.
17:51Two touchdowns for Cousins, almost a 2-1 price back in your pocket tonight.
17:56How successful, Joe, do you think Mayfield or Cousins can be tonight?
18:00Well, I think Mayfield certainly needs to be.
18:03And for whatever reason, Donnie, I don't know what it is, but we know the history with these
18:09two teams and Kirk Cousins against Todd Bowles' defenses.
18:13Yeah.
18:13He's lit them up.
18:14But again, you don't have Drake London.
18:16So, it's kind of hard for me to back any overs with Kirk Cousins tonight.
18:21Always boom or bust when you play that Tampa defense.
18:23You know they're bringing the heat.
18:24And last week, it was the ground game of Shuck, the quarterback from the world that got
18:28it done.
18:29Kirk Cousins at a half-yard rushing tonight.
18:31I don't know if he's going to get it done that way.
18:34I love this weekend, Joe, in the NFL.
18:35Why is that?
18:36Well, because we have a Thursday night football game, which we do enjoy.
18:39But then we have a full slate on Sunday.
18:41No bye weeks, Joe.
18:42So, 1 o'clock games, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.
18:47And then 425 games, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
18:51Fantastic.
18:52So, you have something for everybody all day long that you can watch.
18:56Freezing cold weather.
18:57Dome games here.
18:58Make sure you understand what the stakes are for some of these games with teams being
19:01eliminated or a chance for elimination.
19:04Baltimore and Cincinnati, 1 o'clock start on Sunday.
19:07That game is from Cincinnati.
19:09The line opened up around three-point favorites here for Baltimore.
19:12Across the board, it now sits at 2.5 with a total of 51.5.
19:17And by the way, I saw Joe Burrow in a press conference yesterday basically saying,
19:21you know, I'm not having fun.
19:22If it's not fun, why do it here?
19:24What are we talking about with Burrow?
19:25Is a guy ready to hang up the cleats already?
19:27If they're signing that massive extension and forcing them to sign his two wide receivers
19:30to keep him happy?
19:32He don't seem too happy right now.
19:33And they're going to take on Baltimore.
19:34And they, talking about Cincinnati, basically out of the playoffs at this point too.
19:38Yeah, well, listen, I mean, there's always a chance when you have Pittsburgh up at the
19:44top here and anything is possible, right?
19:46But listen, the injuries for Lamar Jackson and the, you know, the inability to get anything
19:54going with Derrick Henry.
19:56I mean, their offense is number 19th right now.
19:59They're ranked number 19th here on the fifth days.
20:01This is not your typical Ravens offenses.
20:04They haven't gotten 23 points in their last four games here.
20:10So outside of the first four games, what have we seen offensively to think that we're going
20:16to get how many 51 and a half, 52 and a half points in this game?
20:21I don't see it, Donnie.
20:23I think the whole world expects to shoot out like we got with Burrow and Josh Allen.
20:28The problem is this current version of the Ravens offense isn't Josh Allen and the Bills.
20:34Plus, it doesn't look like there's any snow coming.
20:37I think this is an under.
20:38I think the market is just way too high with this number.
20:41I think we get, I think we not get a shootout.
20:45I think we're closer to 48 than we are 52.
20:48By the way, game time temperatures, Joe, kickoff nine degrees.
20:52So with a windshield, probably going to bump that down to around zero.
20:55That's cold weather temperatures.
20:56Lamar Jackson sat out practice like he does at least once a week, but he hasn't been right.
21:00I think I put out a tweet yesterday, Joe, since he hasn't thrown more than two touchdowns
21:03in one game since October.
21:05Like Lamar Jackson, she's saying, hey, 41 touchdowns, three interceptions, do whatever
21:08they want.
21:09This isn't the same team that we've seen in the past and a lot has to do with Lamar Jackson.
21:13Let me ask you a quick question on this game too.
21:15T. Higgins was seen with a helmet and practicing as part of the concussion protocol.
21:19What are we doing?
21:21Cincinnati, what are we doing?
21:22The dude got his head bounced multiple times off the turf.
21:25Didn't get a concussion on Sunday, came back in the next day and said, I think I have
21:29concussion symptoms and they're moving him through the process to possibly play this week
21:33in a dead season.
21:34You think T. Higgins should be playing this weekend or what are we doing since then?
21:38Well, I mean, it's one thing to be out there with a helmet on and, you know, and, and just
21:42practicing as long as you're not getting hit.
21:44And listen, there's no guarantee.
21:46I think that he clearing anything in time for this game.
21:49So, but if I'm him and I don't feel necessary, I'm feeling a little better.
21:55Yeah.
21:55I'm going to be out there, you know, running around, but I am certainly not going to be
22:00okay to play in a game against the Ravens.
22:03Like you said, in frozen, what temperatures, my, you know, nine degrees hitting your head
22:08again on the ground.
22:09I doubt they'll take a risk.
22:12My goodness.
22:13I'll tell you where else is going to be cold conditions.
22:15That's in Kansas city.
22:16Not really just a cold season for the Kansas city chiefs.
22:18The charges are a dome team with a quarterback with a broken hand going to play out in temperatures.
22:23As I list now kickoff at 16 degrees, no precipitation in the forecast.
22:28You're just a cold day.
22:2944 and a half, Joe.
22:30They're gone at the opening number.
22:32It's 41 and a half now, but how about this?
22:34We've seen this number go down to four and a half, but we're back to five and a half as a
22:37favorite for the chiefs.
22:38Keep in mind, neither one of these teams has any offensive lines here.
22:42I'm interested to see.
22:43I agree, Joe, with the 44 and a half going down to 41.
22:47Who would have thought before the season, a chargers game and a chiefs game 41 and a
22:52half.
22:52There we are.
22:55Well, exactly.
22:56Cause both defenses are much better than the offenses, especially right now, Donnie.
23:02Uh, you know, I mean, if you take that Kamani Vidal, uh, you know, 60 yard run and catch
23:07there, uh, out of that game.
23:09I mean, we're not talking like an offense with a quarterback and a broken hand with now backups
23:14to the backups on the offensive line.
23:16Uh, the way the chiefs defense is playing.
23:20I agree with the move to the under Donnie.
23:22I am not expecting some sort of wild shootout here.
23:24Yeah, no doubt about it.
23:26How about this?
23:26The chiefs are under 500 in December for the first time since 2012.
23:30Some other things in 2012, Taylor Swift, the number one pop album, which I guess you
23:34could do every other year.
23:35Anyway, Matt Castle, the starting quarterback, Mr. Patriot himself, Nick Sirianni looking
23:40nice and young here and shaven in that picture was the wide receivers coach.
23:43But how about Patrick Mahomes?
23:44He was in a high school at that point and Andy Reid.
23:47Yeah, he was still coaching my Philadelphia Eagles.
23:51How about that?
23:52Hour number two is on the way.
23:53Don't you go anywhere.
23:54I'm going to preview a freezing cold football game as well.
23:58We talk about referendums all the time for football teams.
24:00Show me on the football field what you got out here.
24:04And it's going to take place this weekend.
24:05It's Buffalo and New England.
24:06Show me what you got, New England, again and again and again.
24:10Because some people aren't believing in Drake, man.
24:11The Patriots can be that good.
24:13They win against Buffalo this weekend.
24:14They shore up the AFC East.
24:16They could actually be the number one overall seed in the AFC.
24:19But Josh Allen is going to have a lot to do with how this game turns out.
24:23And how about this?
24:24The opening lines, Joe, actually had New England as a favorite minus one and a half.
24:27It's been bouncing back and forth.
24:29One and a half's and ones, both sides all week long.
24:3264% of the tickets currently coming in on the New England Patriots.
24:36And a total of 49 and a half up from 47 and a half.
24:40Chilly conditions, not ice freezing conditions with tons of wind in Foxborough.
24:44So both of these teams should be at home.
24:47The Buffalo Bills, they can make their last stand in this game.
24:50Or the New England Patriots say, you're the old guard.
24:53We're the new guard.
24:54Get used to it.
24:56Yeah.
24:56I mean, listen, it's clear that the markets believe New England.
25:01Great story.
25:02It really has turned the franchise around.
25:05But at some point, they are expecting some regression against, certainly it sounds like,
25:11it looks like, anyway, as the market's telling us, Donnie, better teams.
25:15And I think this all starts with Josh Allen.
25:18I think what you just watched against Cincinnati, his mobility, him using his legs now more often.
25:26I'm, what, 84 yards last week, which is the most by a quarterback in a game this year.
25:32That's going to continue this time of year throughout.
25:35And New England, I think the offensive line injury is a big problem for them.
25:40In the meantime, the Bills are getting back Spencer Brown, their right tackle, and they're
25:45getting Joey Bosa back.
25:47And if this thing turns into a shootout because there is some snow in the forecast, it's advantage
25:52Buffalo.
25:53Donnie, any which way you cut it, it's advantage Buffalo.
25:55So, I agree with the line here, and I do think this is the time of year where Josh Allen
26:01just goes out and wins games and snatches it from you.
26:05Here's Rabel talking about being maybe a handicapper here, Joe, huh?
26:09How about this?
26:09The people in Las Vegas have you guys as underdogs, Sunday out.
26:13Who are the people, man?
26:14I guess the odds maker.
26:16There you go.
26:16The odds maker.
26:17They're called odds maker.
26:18The odds maker.
26:19A lot of people in Las Vegas.
26:21There's always a few of them that they trust to set the line.
26:26So, do you pay attention to that?
26:28I mean, do you notice that?
26:31No, I mean, I get it.
26:33It gets brought to attention.
26:34I don't think that, you know what I mean?
26:37It's every week you see in this league that suckers really don't mean anything.
26:45Let me go ahead.
26:45You know, the point spreads and survivor pools get blown up every week
26:50and all that other stuff.
26:52So, we're just trying to focus on our preparation here and get back into it.
26:58By the way, if they tell you, Joe, that they don't look at the point spread,
27:02the first thing every single week, they are lying to you.
27:05We're not saying they're gambling on the game,
27:07but even they want to know what everybody thinks.
27:10Hey, look at that, coach.
27:11They say you're a three-and-a-half-point dog.
27:12Absolutely.
27:13So, you saw that little pause and almost like that wry smile I wanted to give.
27:17Like, do you pay attention to this?
27:18He had to give the corporate answer.
27:20But we all understand, of course, they look at this.
27:24Well, who said anything about survivor pools?
27:27Like, he throws out survivor pools.
27:29He throws out the fact that there's only a handful of oddsmakers they trust in Vegas
27:34to actually set what?
27:36Like, oh, my goodness.
27:37You seem to know, unlike Pete Carroll, who just says, you know, we're just competing until the end.
27:45Yeah.
27:46Okay, Pete, sure.
27:48Yep.
27:48Pete's like, you know what?
27:49Mark Davis said, you get me this cover this weekend, boy.
27:53You might stick around here.
27:54I'll get you that cover.
27:55Don't you worry about it.
27:56And he did, people.
27:57Detroit and Los Angeles.
27:58Who's getting the cover in this game?
27:59Better yet, who's getting the win?
28:00Detroit could be on the ropes with another loss.
28:03And the Rams in an absolute fight in the NFC West, a five-and-a-half-point favorite up from three-and-a-half here.
28:09Jared Goff takes Detroit on the road.
28:11Aminor Austin Brown looks like he's going to be healthy, be able to give it a go.
28:13Last time we saw them with a victory.
28:15But this is a tough go.
28:16Five-and-a-half-point line.
28:17But how about this, Joe?
28:19I'm looking at ticket counts.
28:20Heavy ticket count towards Detroit.
28:23You know what?
28:24I don't buy it.
28:25I don't buy it.
28:26You are better on offense and defense and a better head coach and play caller with the Rams, and the Rams are at home.
28:32I think I might go Rams.
28:33I'll go with the non-public side.
28:36I already bet the Rams, Adi.
28:38But again, we've seen this go from five to five-and-a-half.
28:44Now it's at six.
28:46And like you said, the public's looking at Detroit and saying, absolutely not.
28:51Like, this is far too many points.
28:54Well, no, it's not.
28:55And look at the injury report.
28:58They have nobody left in that secondary.
29:01They lost Brian Branch to an Achilles injury in that last game there.
29:06They already, they've got backups to backups on the cornerback spot.
29:10Who is covering these wide receivers exactly for Detroit?
29:15Sure, they're going to have to score some points.
29:17But they're going to give up 40 points, Donnie.
29:20And don't forget, Detroit after a loss is one thing.
29:23Detroit after a win this year, 0-4 straight up, 0-4 against the number.
29:29How about that?
29:30A big game to watch.
29:31It should be some fun, too, because you look at that total, Joe, 55-and-a-half points are expected in that game.
29:36Both of these teams really can get after it.
29:37One thing to keep an eye on, Devontae Adams still a little bit with that banged-up hamstring here.
29:41Tutu Atwell is actually going to be activated this week, so give him a little bit more punch.
29:45But the one thing we do know, these guys are going to be ultra-aggressive on both sides.
29:48Should be a fun one to watch you play out.
29:50Here's one game, Joe, I can't understand.
29:52It's Green Bay and Denver.
29:53Fantastic matchup here.
29:54One of the best in the NFC versus one of the best in the AFC.
29:57You do have Green Bay as a 2-and-a-half point favorite, which I actually do agree with in a total of 42-and-a-half.
30:01Here's what I can't understand, Joe.
30:02Every game we look at that's outdoors in a cold weather or so city is freezing this weekend.
30:08Kickoff temperature for Green Bay and Denver, 60 degrees.
30:13I don't know how it happened.
30:14I don't know if it makes some sense here.
30:16But the Green Bay Packers also, Joe, only getting about 30% of the tickets enter the favorites when they opened up as a 1-and-a-half.
30:22Now sit at 2-and-a-half.
30:24The public's starting to believe in Denver, but the odds maker is going the opposite direction.
30:28And let's face it, this game has got some juice for both these teams, even though it's AFC, NFC, right?
30:36But both of these teams are a contention for the number one seeds and a first-round buy, Donnie, which, you know, we've talked about it.
30:44Denver, if they can get home field advantage throughout, that is huge.
30:49Same thing with Green Bay.
30:51But I don't think you need to overthink this here, Donnie.
30:54We've talked about it.
30:55Denver and Bo Nix, at home, they're better.
30:59But it doesn't matter.
31:00Home away, they never get blown out.
31:03And his record in a six-point teaser is crazy, Bo Nix, as the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos.
31:09If I can get them at 8-and-a-half at home, Donnie, I'm good to go to make that an anchor in any teasers I'm looking at this week.
31:17I think you're right about that, too.
31:18And also understand this.
31:20If there's one quarterback, and even though Bo Nix is young, with a devastating pass rush, he moves really well in the pocket, man.
31:26He has a fleet of feet back there.
31:27He's hard to sack.
31:28And if you look at some of those numbers where he's ultra-efficient in the short-passing game, something to keep an eye on.
31:33I still do think Green Bay wins that game, but Denver and Bo Nix, they're never out of it.
31:37And if they're down touchdown or so in the fourth quarter, the kid knows how to come back.
31:40Something to watch there.
31:41Sunday Night Football, Minnesota and Dallas, Joe.
31:44Six-and-a-half-point favorites here at the opening number, six-and-a-half at FanDuel, five-and-a-half at DraftKings here.
31:48Still right around a touchdown and a total of 47-and-a-half.
31:51McCarthy, whoa!
31:53Decent football game last week and a blowout victory over Washington.
31:56Dallas looks to get back CeeDee Lamb after that concussion.
31:59We're expecting points here.
32:01I'm still trying to uneasy which way I'm taking it.
32:03Minnesota, decent defense.
32:04Dallas, bad defense.
32:05Ken McCarthy did the same thing he did last week at home on the road.
32:08A lot of things to go over, Joe, but where are you leaning, Minnesota and Dallas?
32:11What I'm leaning is, can somebody explain to me how the hell this game didn't get flexed out on Sunday night?
32:17Like, we're talking about a 6-6-1 Dallas team against a 5-8 Vikings team?
32:22And what?
32:23We're not flexing this game out for, I don't know, anything at this point.
32:28You know, Donnie, in this game, I do think you saw Minnesota bounce back after getting shut out.
32:34The offense, obviously capable.
32:37This feels like we could get an over game here.
32:40I think maybe this line is a little bit too low.
32:43I do feel like this time of year, teams that are just going through the motions tend to make a few more business decisions defensively.
32:51I think we could get a few more points in this one.
32:54By the way, you're right about that, too, because there's a 1 o'clock game that's Buffalo and New England that 95% of the country doesn't have the ticket is not going to be able to watch that football game.
33:03You flex that to the night.
33:05I'm interested in that one.
33:06New England and Buffalo here, but again, it's the Dallas Cowboys.
33:09We'll see how it plays out, and you know the drill at that point.
33:12We know he's coming up next, the prime minister of Canada.
33:14He knows about cold weather at this point.
33:17He has canceled cold weather questions about the NFL.
33:19We got football tonight.
33:21It is absolutely gross.
33:22You guys talking about putting the Vikings-Dallas game somewhere.
33:26Can we just nix this game?
33:27I don't even know what to do with it.
33:29Honestly, guys, I would look at, like, I want to take the Falcons at plus four and a half, because every time they play Tampa Bay, it's tight.
33:36We were on the Saints last week as our dirty pooch, but I don't know if Atlanta could do it again.
33:40They were hanging with Seattle, guys.
33:42Remember, that game was tied, and then Shahid opened up the second half with that 100-yard return, and he was very, very solid in that game.
33:49I have a lean to the Falcons, guys, but B. John Robinson, anytime touchdown, he was really running the rock well.
33:54But when Seattle got up two possessions and they made Kirk Cousins throw, he was dead.
33:58He got absolutely tortured and murdered in that game.
34:01The Seattle defense ate him up.
34:03So, if Atlanta keeps it close, I think B. John will be a part of the game.
34:06But who knows?
34:07The Bucs are fading, and the Falcons are just, ah, ah, horrible.
34:11Yeah, it does look good, Cam, when you take a look, too, because Tampa Bay is a four-and-a-half-point favorite.
34:15So, oh, they should win over the Falcons, who have nothing to play for.
34:17They're eliminated.
34:18But understand this.
34:19Like, Tampa hasn't covered since the first game against New Orleans.
34:21It's not as if they're just rolling everybody over.
34:23But they do get some help tonight.
34:25Mike Evans expected to be back.
34:26McMillan, Bucky Irvin, another game there.
34:29Do you have a feeling on the total of 44-and-a-half at all or no?
34:32I think we should probably go over in this game, guys.
34:35I just see, like, that's the whole thing.
34:37The Saints and Shuck are actually running the ball on these guys and scoring.
34:40And they have a horrible offense.
34:42One thing about Atlanta, I think they can stay in the game early.
34:44They have to consistently have that running game.
34:46I know they have injuries.
34:47But Kirk Cousins, if you give them a little bit of time, you can score.
34:49And that Falcons defense, as you saw in the second half against Seattle, it's porous.
34:54I have a lean that way, Donnie.
34:55I can't tell you I'm confident by any stretch in this game.
34:58Imagine, like, you have this game and you're like, oh, man, you have to pick side total.
35:01I'm leaning Atlanta.
35:02I'm leaning over right now.
35:04Bijon Robinson, anytime touchdown.
35:06I don't know what to do with the Bucs props right now.
35:08I got to give it a second go over there.
35:10But this is going to be a gross football game.
35:12And usually these gross games, sometimes they're like, eh, you know what?
35:15What's Atlanta?
35:15What do you guys got to do anyway?
35:16What are you going to do?
35:17Play a conservative game?
35:18You suck.
35:19Just go out there and air it out and have some fun and try to win a football game against
35:23a hated rival.
35:23So I'm leaning that way, guys.
35:26Kind of crazy that we've seen nothing but Atlanta money, too, in the market coming in
35:31since this game opened.
35:33But, I mean, Cam, we've talked about it here.
35:36I'm a Colts fan now.
35:38Like, I need to see Phillip Rivers under center, man.
35:41Like, I need to have this happen against your Seattle Seahawks team.
35:46And the problem is 14, 13 and a half, 14.
35:50What are we doing?
35:51Is it a trap, Cam?
35:52What is this?
35:53I got to tell you, Joe, like, good for the old guys.
35:56Phillip Rivers is the guy who goes into the bar and, like, still thinks he can hang with,
36:00like, a 19-year-old, 20-year-old going, hey, baby, I still got it.
36:03But Phillip Rivers has nine kids.
36:04So he's not that guy at the bar picking up.
36:06He's just a guy breeding.
36:07Let's just make that obviously clear.
36:10But I'm going to say this, Joe.
36:11To your point, who the hell is betting on the Indianapolis Colts in this game?
36:15The answer is nobody.
36:16Have they confirmed Rivers as a starter?
36:18Guys, I thought it was going to be Brett Rippon, son of Mark Rippon, Boise State quarterback,
36:22actually born in Spokane, Washington.
36:25So you got to think about Seattle.
36:27Like, that would make more sense to me.
36:28Like, I got to be honest with you guys.
36:30I don't want to see Phillip Rivers out there for all the good things he does
36:33and Seattle having to hurt this guy.
36:35Like, God, he's 44 years old, and he's been murdered when he played in the league.
36:39Like, that is not right.
36:41You can't have Phillip.
36:41Like, that's just a recipe for disaster.
36:43But I'm going to tell you something, Joe.
36:45I'm not confident laying the points with the Seahawks.
36:47Right.
36:47I'm not.
36:48Like, this is one of those situations.
36:49Like, who the hell is going to bet on the Colts?
36:51I'm not saying they're going to win the game by 24 points.
36:53But if Rippon starts and they can establish a run game with Taylor,
36:57like, Atlanta was in that game.
36:59They were in that game until Seattle broke that game open early up in the third.
37:03They had many missed opportunities,
37:05and the Atlanta Falcons are not a good football team.
37:07So, we'll see.
37:08I'm not confident laying that number, guys.
37:10No way.
37:12Sports Grid Network, we like to bring the fire people.
37:14You know what we do.
37:15Each and every day, we get you set.
37:17That's what we do on the early line.
37:18Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.,
37:22getting you the topics you need to know before you're out the doors,
37:25when you get to the office, or where you're going,
37:27you're a more informed sportsman out there in the marketplace, Joe.
37:31I think we did that job today.
37:32We went over a lot of things here, Joe.
37:35How do you think the performance was today on a thirsty Thursday?
37:39Oh, just epic, Donnie.
37:41Award-winning kind of content is what we're delivering here on a weekly basis,
37:46not to mention winners in this segment,
37:50which is even more important than anything else.
37:53Emmys, people.
37:54Emmys, that's what we're going for.
37:55But this is the part of the show where you say,
37:56you know what?
37:57Enough of you two talking here.
37:59Let us get our piece in here.
38:00It's our fave to public poll.
38:01What are you betting in the marketplace tonight?
38:12It was the question we asked at SportsGrid here.
38:13Give us a follow.
38:14Get the answers to the question here.
38:16At least give us the answers to the question.
38:18Four options, over, under, Falcons or Buccaneers,
38:20all dealing with the spread.
38:22The leader in the clubhouse right now,
38:23I'm not actually surprised by that.
38:25It's Buccaneers at minus 4.5,
38:26followed by the Falcons at plus 4.5.
38:29Then it's the under at 19.5,
38:31and nobody giving any credence show to 44.5 as a total.
38:36Which way did you wager tonight?
38:38Yeah, it's very hard.
38:40You know, all the trends and all of the numbers
38:44tell us in this spot, Todd Bowles, Baker Mayfield,
38:48the Tampa Bay Bucs, this is not a great spot for them.
38:51Short week, division rivals, at home.
38:55I mean, they're one and nine against the number.
38:58As a favorite, they're not covering games,
39:00especially Atlanta.
39:01We saw what those games were a year ago
39:04with Kirk Cousins under center.
39:06I'd be very weary here about laying any sort of points
39:11with the Tampa Bay Bucs, because the trends tell me,
39:15and I'm not going to argue with them,
39:17I'll take the points with the Atlanta Falcons
39:19if I'm doing anything here.
39:21Here we go.
39:22Battle of the NFC South.
39:23By the way, Sunday's afternoon game in Tampa
39:25was a rainy day.
39:26Supposed to be good conditions tonight.
39:2858 degrees, Joe.
39:29No rain in the forecast, so clean slate.
39:31You like to see it so you get the best outcome,
39:33depending on which way you wagered here,
39:35which means we're coming up on bye, bye, bye,
39:37the best bets of the day right here.
39:46We got hockey.
39:47We got football.
39:48We got basketball.
39:48We got Q school in the PGA, Joe.
39:51Where are you going for your best bet today?
39:54Well, I'll go to this Thursday night game, Donnie,
39:57and forget about the side,
39:59because I don't really trust either of these two teams
40:02offensively right now.
40:04But I do think there's some value in the under at 44 and a half.
40:09Now, listen, Tampa is still missing both starting guards tonight.
40:13They're also still missing a starting linebacker.
40:15However, this is about as healthy as we've seen the Bucs
40:19since the beginning of the year in September.
40:21They'll have Evans, as we mentioned.
40:23They'll have Jalen McMillan.
40:25They'll have Tristan Wirfs.
40:26But more importantly, they'll have Hassan Redick back
40:29and Tykee Smith, who both got knocked out of the game last week.
40:33And that's important, because the defensive front of Tampa
40:36is going to have success against this beat-up offensive line
40:41of the Falcons.
40:42And the Falcons, for all their faults, defensively,
40:46they're very good at defending the pass.
40:49And the Falcons don't have a ton of weapons
40:51outside of B. John Robinson.
40:53So, yeah, I think the defenses are going to be
40:56the best units on the field tonight.
40:58Short week, I don't expect a ton of offense here.
41:01I expect this to be a close game.
41:03And ultimately, Donnie, 20-17, somewhere in that ballpark,
41:08I don't expect a ton of points here.
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