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00:00Time for some spread lines, hot topics that collide with sporting events on information that you need to know specifically coming up this weekend in the NFL.
00:09And if we look at the Los Angeles Rams taking on the Carolina Panthers, game number one of wild card weekend, Joe, 4.30 p.m. on your Saturday.
00:17This line has been sitting at 10 and a half all week, hasn't really moved all that much, total 46 and a half.
00:22But if we can pop up that meme for Andre the Giant, where it's like, oh, no, oh, no, there's rain in the forecast, Joe.
00:30Uh-oh.
00:31Last time we saw the Rams in Carolina in the rain didn't work out so well.
00:34What's your spread line for Saturday?
00:36Well, we are actually starting to see a little bit of movement in some spots, Donnie.
00:42But, you know, we're still seeing a big ticket count and big money on the Rams.
00:48But we are starting to see some 10s popping up in the marketplace.
00:53Now, does that mean that, of course, the pros are running to the window and back in Carolina?
00:58No.
00:59But what it tells me is since we haven't seen any real big move back up, I mean, a 10 and a half, Donnie, you're already in no man's land, right?
01:08Key number of 10.
01:09So does it get to 11?
01:11Does it get to 11 and a half?
01:12I'm kind of shocked it hasn't at this point.
01:15I tend to believe that there might be a little bit more money hitting the market on Saturday before kickoff here.
01:23But I think it's going to be all one way.
01:25I think the pros and the Joes are all going to be aligned on the Rams come Saturday afternoon.
01:31See what happens here.
01:32How about that Saturday night game in Chicago?
01:35A little bit of flurries, maybe a little bit of snow in the forecast there.
01:38Cold weather, as usual, in the Windy City.
01:40But now it's substantial across the board, Joe.
01:42We used to have a little bit of a nice mix, plus one here, minus one there.
01:45That's not the case.
01:46Looks like minus one and a half is taking control for the Green Bay Packers as a favorite over the Chicago Bears.
01:52That total sitting at 45 and a half.
01:54Josh Jacobs just said he feels the best he's felt in six weeks here.
01:57Green Bay going in as the favorite over the two seed.
02:00How about that?
02:01What's your spread line?
02:02Well, we just talked about the pros and Joes likely on the same page with the Rams.
02:07They are not on the same page in this game.
02:11We have got nothing but tickets and money on the Bears.
02:16And yet this line continues to move towards the Green Bay Packers.
02:22So we have got the public is looking at this line and going, how are the Bears the two seed?
02:27An underdog in any way, shape, or form.
02:29And yet here it is, Donnie.
02:32We are still looking.
02:33And again, one, one and a half.
02:35Pretty consistent across the market.
02:37We're starting to see 45s in the market as well, which tells me weather conditions, maybe not a whole lot of offense here.
02:45It's going to be cold.
02:47You know, make sure you understand what that's going to be Saturday night there.
02:50But nobody seems to necessarily be expecting a shootout.
02:54But it is clear that the pros and Joes believe, yeah, there are two different better teams on the field here.
03:00The public loves the Bears.
03:01The pros, they're bagging the Packers.
03:04Yes, they are.
03:05And by the way, if you're talking about that number dropping a little bit, you get two healthy running games in a playoff game in colder temperatures.
03:10Yeah, they're going to run the ball.
03:11That line is going to keep on pounding lower.
03:14We'll see how that ends up at 45 and a half or lower once we get the game day.
03:17Let's go to Sunday afternoon.
03:19Great start here at one o'clock, Joe.
03:20So Buffalo's headed to Jacksonville.
03:22Once again, the higher-seeded team is at home and an underdog of minus one and a half.
03:27This line has been substantial all week.
03:29Like, we haven't even had those floating numbers like we had in Chicago, Joe.
03:31It's been Buffalo all week.
03:33And also, similar ticket counts here.
03:35You're seeing people, wait a second.
03:36Jacksonville's red hot.
03:37They're at home.
03:38And they're an underdog.
03:38I'll take them.
03:39Looks like we might have a divide in this game as well, Joe.
03:41What's your spread line for Sunday's Buffalo-Jacksonville game?
03:44You nailed it there, Donnie.
03:46This is another pros versus Joes divide here.
03:49Because the Joes are all over Jacksonville going, what are we doing here?
03:54I mean, they're playing at home in Duval County.
03:59Yes, because that means something apparently now.
04:02But you're continuing to see the tickets and the money rolling in here.
04:07But why is this line still minus one, one and a half, Donnie?
04:11Well, that's because there is some influential bettors that are line freezing this.
04:17And I think that's going to continue as we get a little bit closer to kickoff over the
04:23weekend, Donnie.
04:24And listen, I don't blame people for jumping on Jacksonville.
04:27They have been absolutely amazing.
04:29But when you look at experience and you look at the strength of schedule here, they have
04:36not beaten teams like the Bills at all this year.
04:39And I think the pros are siding with the experience and the Josh Allen factor in absolutely beautiful
04:45conditions, by the way, on Sunday.
04:46Hey, we got wildcard weekend this weekend.
04:48There's no doubt about that.
04:49We will be focused on Saturday for a doubleheader.
04:51We have three games on a Sunday and one game on Monday Night Football and the Sports Grid
04:55Network.
04:55So I have you covered on all of those games, but not just the games that are going on.
04:59There's things happening off the field, which means teams are looking for head coaches.
05:03Teams are firing coaches.
05:04Teams are looking to say, you know what?
05:05Let's get prepared for the draft and hopefully have a better 2026.
05:09I'll tell you guys, I didn't have a good 2025 right now.
05:11It's Rasheed Rice as we head into 2026.
05:13Coming in to the NFL out of college, the knock on Rasheed Rice wasn't that he was a fantastic
05:19athlete and we don't think he's going to be able to make it in the NFL.
05:21It was the off the field issues.
05:23With Andy Reid in Philadelphia, never would have put up with this.
05:25But now Andy Reid in Kansas City, you know what?
05:27A couple of these guys on the team here, if we keep them straight, can actually help
05:29and we can win championships, which they have.
05:32Rasheed Rice had a terrible incident last offseason where he almost caused fatalities by racing
05:37his friends in Lamborghinis and Ferraris and said, OK, he gets a suspension.
05:41Just try to stay clear.
05:42Now we see Rasheed Rice popping back up in the media for what?
05:46Alleged abuse on an ex of his who has his two kids at this point right now.
05:51This isn't a good look.
05:52And sometimes it's about the court of public opinion, not actually things going through
05:56to the court system here.
05:57Tough look for Rasheed Rice, maybe even a worse look for the Chiefs if they keep him around.
06:01Yeah, it's you know, she didn't name him.
06:06But on an Instagram post, she was posting pictures of her with a bloody lip, scratches,
06:11bruises.
06:12I mean, just awful stuff here.
06:15And she basically lays it all out that it's been like that forever and that she's known
06:21him and that he is not what he, you know, pretends to be.
06:25I mean, a whole lot of allegations.
06:27Never named him.
06:29But obviously, I mean, she, you know, the mother of his two kids, they've been together
06:34for a long time.
06:35They did break up a couple of months ago.
06:37Either way, when you're 25 years old, you just spent 30 days in jail, five years probation.
06:43You got a second chance.
06:46You got like another lease here, an opportunity to be able to do good.
06:50And then this happens.
06:51And whatever led up to it doesn't matter.
06:53The fact that this had been going on, if true, that we've seen the last of Rasheed Rice
06:58likely.
07:00Probably have here.
07:01Haven't seen the last of Todd Bowles, even though he's 36 and 36 with the Buccaneers, a couple
07:05division championships here.
07:07Here's the tough part, Joe, for me, when I'm running an organization myself, you can find
07:11good defensive coordinators.
07:12You can't find great offensive coordinators.
07:14They had a couple in their building the last two years, and it's not Todd Bowles' fault.
07:17He was the head coach and is what it is.
07:19But you lose those top guys to other teams because they get to become head coaches here.
07:23See what Liam Cohen is doing there in Jacksonville.
07:25Maybe he could have done the same if he stayed in Tampa Bay.
07:27But Todd Bowles is going to stick around, as Joe always points out.
07:30All right, you fired Todd Bowles.
07:32You get Matt Nagy or Vance Joseph.
07:33You know what I mean?
07:35You might as well keep what you got with a guy who's won some things, at least, right?
07:39Yeah, they're always there.
07:41I mean, they've been in the postseason how many years now in a row with him at the helm?
07:46I mean, this is not a guy that has been struggling.
07:49It was an off year.
07:50They kind of fell apart here.
07:52Injuries kind of took their toll.
07:54But the Bucs have never really been that kind of organization where they're just, oh, let's fire a guy a year or two into it.
08:02I mean, he's been there a long time, Todd Bowles.
08:06And, yeah, I think at 62 years old, he deserved a shot to return for his fifth season.
08:11And I think, listen, I think they'll be good if they got a couple of decisions to make in the offseason.
08:17But, yeah, I think the injuries were a big part of why they landed where they did this year.
08:23But I think a good bounce back year for Todd Bowles next year.
08:26By the way, I don't even think we needed a statement on this next story here.
08:29The Saints committing to Tyler, the starting quarterback in 2026.
08:32He proved it on the field.
08:33He even made a charge of maybe being offensive rookie of the year, despite only playing a handful of games.
08:38From what I've seen of him, you judge these guys and a lot of you say, you know, he doesn't have a lot around them.
08:43What did you want him to do?
08:43He had a bad season, like Shadour Sanders.
08:45That's the opposite of with Shuck.
08:47Like, Shuck was a bright spot there for the New Orleans Saints and winning football games down the stretch in spite of the actual team that was put around him here.
08:54I like Shuck.
08:54I'm intrigued for 2026.
08:56He deserves to be that starter.
08:57Listen, the reason that you're not picking at the top of the draft and have an option at picking a new quarterback is because you finally played him
09:07and took out Spencer Radler and he won you enough games where, yeah, he's going to be your quarterback.
09:13You don't get to choose a new quarterback next year at the top of the draft because he played the way he did.
09:19So I'm looking forward to what he can do with some real weapons and now a year under his belt.
09:24I think this could be a great story moving forward.
09:28Yeah, by the way, also, next door here, Justin Herbert taking snaps.
09:31Wait a second.
09:31He's a quarterback.
09:32He's been playing all along.
09:33This guy, one week out of surgery, had trouble under center.
09:36Now we're a couple weeks later.
09:38You can add more to your offense here.
09:39Justin Herbert looks like he's almost back to normal heading into New England.
09:43Yeah, and that's great news for the Chargers and for Harbaugh.
09:47So, yeah, it was a matter of time.
09:50But, again, we've talked about it.
09:52Nobody tougher in the league than Justin Herbert should be the MVP.
09:56No, I'm looking forward to it.
09:57There's a lot of really good spots in this situation.
10:00Also, we've seen Herbert take games over.
10:01The problem is, is that offensive line going to hold up against New England?
10:04A lot of those questions will be answered this weekend for sure.
10:08Off-seasons, a lot of fun, a lot of changing parts here.
10:11You're getting that in Atlanta right now.
10:13But, like, when you grow up as a kid, it's like, well, what do you want to do for, you know, like, a living?
10:16Like, as a kid, like, I want to be a fireman.
10:17I want to be a policeman.
10:19I want to be the president of the United States.
10:20As you grow older and you say, you know what?
10:22I just want to be in an NFL franchise some way, shape, or how.
10:25Like, general manager seems like maybe the most fun position you can have.
10:28You know what's even better than that?
10:29Being, like, head of football operations when you've already been an NFL success story like Matt Ryan is.
10:35Like, can you imagine getting paid probably a few million dollars to sit at, like, a big table, have lunch all day, check in with the general manager, show up to the games.
10:44The owner likes you.
10:45Hey, what do you think about this?
10:46Well, I think if we get a wide receiver in the offseason, I'll tell my general manager, that sounds great, Matt.
10:50Let's go have some mimosas and watch this football game play out.
10:53Matt Ryan looks like he has a position created for him in Atlanta.
10:56It seems like it'll be a dream position.
10:57Hey, Matt, just lend us your ear and tell us what you think, and we'll pay you a lot of money for it.
11:04The cushiest of cushy jobs, right?
11:07What a great job.
11:08I mean, and he left a pretty good job, too, right?
11:11Sitting in front of a camera, just, like, dribbling words out there.
11:15And again, like, yeah, okay, boring is all you know what.
11:19But I got to tell you, this is, that's the kind of gig we're all looking for.
11:23I think Tom Brady also is experiencing a little bit of being a consultant of sorts for organizations here.
11:31I think that's, and listen, even Troy Aikman's getting involved, right?
11:35He's in Miami, hiring him, Donnie, to be a consultant for their search energy.
11:41Why do I got to tell you?
11:42A former quarterback's getting the jobs of all jobs here right now in the NFL.
11:47How about this?
11:48Peacock has announced a feature that changes for subscribers to potentially mute the announcers
11:52and change the crowd noise levels during the broadcast.
11:56Now, for me, the Philadelphia Eagles, like, if you want to listen to Merrill Reese, he's a legend.
12:00He's lost his fastball, but he's still a legend.
12:02Love to hear that guy's voice here.
12:03The Flyers, they're just fine.
12:04For me and the city of Philadelphia, I don't think we have Peacock, or I don't know how many times Peacock calls games,
12:08but the Sixers have the worst broadcast team in the NBA, led by Kate Scott.
12:12Can't listen to it.
12:13Nails on a chalkboard.
12:14They're horrendous.
12:15Same thing with my Philadelphia Phillies.
12:17Tom McCarthy is a Mets fan that calls Philadelphia Phillies games, and it drives me nuts.
12:21If I could mute those two and just sit back and enjoy the action, I love this move.
12:27Because, by the way, it seems like 99.9% of the people out there can't stand whoever calls the games anyway.
12:32It's a perfect feature, Joe.
12:33Yeah, it is a great feature, except, you know, most people aren't watching it with the sound on anyway,
12:41because it's probably one of a bunch of games that you're going to have as it is.
12:46So, yeah, I don't ever—usually, Donnie, whenever I put those games on, it's mute button because I've got four of the games on that I have to watch as well.
12:55So, yeah, you don't want too much distraction and extra crowd noise, that's for sure.
13:00I'm telling you, Tom McCarthy, again, calls the Phillies games.
13:03He's been doing it for at least a decade plus.
13:04When Pete Alonzo would hit a home run against the Phillies, I swear he called it, like, the best home run he's ever seen in his life.
13:10And it's like, hey, wait a second.
13:11Who are you actually cheering for at this point?
13:13How about this weekend's games?
13:15What hot ticket?
13:15What not ticket?
13:16Pittsburgh looks like they're resigned on the fact that they're not going anywhere.
13:19Only $1.65 to get into the door.
13:21But how about Green Bay and Chicago?
13:23The Windy City is fired up for the Monsters of the Midway here in a legendary rivalry that's going to take place on Saturday night.
13:30Close to five bills that get in number price, Joe.
13:34Yeah, it's going to be—that's going to be a whole lot of fun there.
13:38But I think that, you know, supply, demand, you got to know who the customer is, too, right, in Chicago.
13:44One of the—I'm wondering, Donnie, what are those tickets during this season?
13:49I bet you they're probably not that far off from there, especially now that they're actually winning football games.
13:56Wow, look at that.
13:57I mean, people want to get in that building so bad because they know it's probably the last time they're going to watch Bears football for the season.
14:01So you might as well pay that ticket and enjoy it.
14:03And the Green Bay Packers are going there without Aaron Rodgers and say, we still own your franchise at this point.
14:09But I'm ready for football this weekend.
14:10I can't wait for it to play out.
14:11You take a look at the NFL, the NFC, and the AFC.
14:14You get that nice mix of NFC action on Saturday night, which is going to have the Rams taking on the Carolina Panthers, followed by Green Bay and Chicago.
14:22Then you say to yourself, ooh, those fill it up.
14:24The Eagles and San Francisco 49ers saving it up there for action on Sunday afternoon.
14:30And then you flip it over to the AFC.
14:32They're going to get battled.
14:32He was tested from Buffalo and Jacksonville.
14:34And then on Sunday night football, that's going to be the Chargers and the New England Patriots.
14:38And Monday night football, Houston and Pittsburgh.
14:43Two games Saturday, three games Sunday, one on Monday night football.
14:46And I always get back to this, Joe.
14:48I didn't like it at first because I always liked the three on Saturday, three on Sunday.
14:51But I got to tell you, man, it gives you some little extra kick to the week knowing that you go into a Monday with a playoff football game that night.
14:58I don't hate it at all anymore.
14:59I used to think I hated it.
15:00No, I mean, listen, this is a we get maybe one more great weekend here because we have a national championship game still to play.
15:09And obviously, you know, teams will advance from this week.
15:13So enjoy this, Donny, because this this next beginning tonight straight through on Monday.
15:19This is the last full push for a weekend of full football.
15:24Oh, man, it's been so nice so far, the changing of the season before, you know, it's going to be Major League Baseball.
15:30But if we take a look, Joe, the two games on Saturday, weather implications in both of those games.
15:36We don't really have that on Sunday in the three games or Monday night football, other than just seasonal temperatures that are expected in these games.
15:41We look at Los Angeles and Carolina.
15:44Rain will be in the forecast for that game as the spread is listed at 10 and a half.
15:47Now, Green Bay in Chicago, snow is in the forecast, not crazy snow, but accumulation may be around an inch during game time if things hit properly.
15:56If we look at both of these two games, Joe, which you think will have more impact on weather?
16:01The rain in Carolina, which, by the way, it's not a cold rain.
16:03You're going to be like decent temperatures here, but it will rain.
16:06Green Bay in Chicago, cold conditions and snow.
16:09What's more impactful between those two weather events?
16:12Yeah, well, anything with wind.
16:15I mean, wherever the wind shows up, Donnie, that's always going to have the biggest impact on a game.
16:20Not snow, not necessarily rain, but any combination of those two with double digit or, you know what I mean, wind gusts and those types, that's the thing that's going to affect it more than anything else here.
16:35But, I mean, you ask the players and they'll tell you, I don't mind playing in the rain as long as it's not 20 mile an hour winds, we're good to go.
16:41So, wind, wherever the wind goes, that's what you want to be very cognizant of this weekend.
16:47And also understand this, too.
16:48When you're dealing with rainy conditions, rain on, and again, the NFL fields are unbelievable, even with grass, they're great drainage.
16:55But there's still an issue when you're on grass with rain.
16:57Not so much when you're on turf with rain as opposed to it.
17:01So, if it is raining, they'll still be able to move the football, you'll still be able to get your feet, and not have like a Rose Bowl scenario, like, oh my goodness, they've got to squeegee the field.
17:08That's not going to be the case.
17:09But I am looking forward to those Saturday games.
17:11Interesting, you know, between the two.
17:12Below what expected for Carolina, or in the Carolina game, because the Rams are the better team.
17:16But then again, Joe, a couple weeks ago, we saw rain in the forecast, and it rained in Carolina, and Carolina came back to beat the Rams.
17:23Great stuff in the NFL this weekend, as we keep getting you involved in the process and letting you know the information you need to.
17:29That's the winning bet.
17:31You got college football tonight.
17:32You got college football Friday night.
17:34You got NFL action, two on Saturday, three on Sunday, one on Monday night.
17:39An exciting week here at Sonny Wrightshead.
17:40It's Joe Ranieri.
17:41Now we welcome in Adam Kaufman to talk a little about that Chargers-New England game.
17:45But before we get there, we need to hear it.
17:48I mean, we see the social media post out here.
17:50There's a sharp divide.
17:52Drake May, Matthew Stafford, Adam Kaufman, here's your stage.
17:56One last shot to prove to the people on who you think the MVP is this year.
18:01Guys, it's Drake May.
18:04And I know I'm going to be accused of bias when I say that.
18:07This really is, it's relatively simple, though, honestly.
18:11This is, do you go with the guy who is winning in virtually every single category other than total touchdowns?
18:17Whether it's advanced metrics, traditional metrics, whatever statistic you want to throw at it.
18:22Drake May, to the eye, to the film, to the analytics, he is the guy versus the legacy award conversation.
18:29Which, honestly, I respect Matthew Stafford.
18:32He has had himself an excellent career.
18:35Is he really so good, though, that he's worthy of a legacy award?
18:39Which is, again, if that's your fallback, if that's the thing that even people like Tom Brady want to keep coming back to,
18:46well, you know, Stafford, he had a great year in May.
18:48He's young.
18:49He's got plenty of time to win this thing again.
18:51That's just dumb.
18:53Who is ultimately the most deserving?
18:55And I know it doesn't necessarily work this way.
18:58But if we're going to, you know, look at this award purely in the scope of value, who's more valuable to their team?
19:07If you take these quarterbacks off of their teams, and I've done the exercise on social media, got a lot of play of what if you switch them?
19:14What would that be?
19:15Forget that for a minute.
19:16Let's just say you went with their backups.
19:18If Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback this year for the Rams with Puka Nakua, Devontae Adams, Kyron Williams, Blake Quorum, Sean McVay, obviously, what does that team look like?
19:30To me, probably still winning double-digit games.
19:33Whereas if Josh Dobbs is the quarterback for the New England Patriots with all of the weapons that Drake May has had to work with this year, even under Mike Vrabel, even with Josh McDaniels, what do the Patriots do?
19:45Do they win 14 games?
19:46Do they win four again?
19:48I mean, even if you want to call it seven or eight, it is not remotely the same team.
19:53It's not a team that wins its division, that's competing for the number one overall seed, and that obviously is a threat in a wide-open playoffs.
20:02But if I'm going to boil it down to the most simple argument that there is in the recent history, the last couple few decades of MVP voting, we know, generally speaking, it's a quarterback honor.
20:15A QB is going to win it.
20:17Other positions, you get Offensive Player of the Year.
20:20Beyond that, guys, more often than not, and I'm talking 90-some-odd percent of the time, you've got to be a division winner or you've got to at least finish second in your division.
20:32Matthew Stafford finished third in a very competitive division and was the five-seed or is the five-seed in the playoffs.
20:40Historically, the MVP is never a five-seed in the postseason.
20:47You've got to win.
20:48You've got to win at a much higher level, and I know the Patriots' schedule, blah, blah, blah.
20:52Guess what?
20:52The past defenses that May faced, that Stafford faced, not overall teams, but past defenses, those were actually relatively comparable.
21:01So, again, I could use the entire segment.
21:04I could go on and on and on and on and on.
21:06Joe can keep rolling his eyes, which people can't see.
21:09I promise you, Matthew Stafford is the more deserving.
21:12Doesn't mean, or pardon me, Drake May is the more deserving.
21:15Matthew Stafford doesn't mean he is not deserving.
21:17They're both deserving.
21:18Like last year, Allen versus Lamar, somebody had to win, somebody had to lose.
21:22You can make a compelling case on both sides.
21:24For me, the edge goes to Drake May.
21:28I love how you blah, blah, blah over the legit arguments against, but you just highlight things that absolutely don't matter.
21:36The bottom line is, you just said the greatest quarterback, the GOAT, who happens to have made his bones in New England,
21:46comes out and says, it's Matthew Stafford.
21:50He deserves to be.
21:51Schedule is better.
21:52Touchdowns are more.
21:54He lays it all out, and as a Patriot homer, and I think we can all say, you dismiss it as if he doesn't know what he's talking about.
22:04I think that speaks volumes as to who should be the MVP and who shouldn't.
22:09You're right, both deserving, but ultimately, when the GOAT comes out and says, Stafford's your MVP, I think it should carry a little weight.
22:18We're going to find out, but to me again, it's that quarterback fraternity of the old guys kind of sticking together, and that's not an anti-Drake May thing.
22:26It's a, like, I just think guys, you know, in that circle, right, view each other in a certain regard, a certain light, justifiably so,
22:36and say, you know, let's get him that one before he walks out the door, before he rides off into the sunset,
22:42and to me, that's just such a dumb argument for awarding a guy MVP.
22:47You don't get MVP for your career.
22:50You get an MVP for a singular season, and yes, Matthew Stafford again, great numbers, but you know what?
22:55Like, it's, why are we completely dismissing what these two guys did on the ground?
23:01Like, Drake May, because of rushing yardage, you know how many rushing yards Matthew Stafford had this year?
23:08One. One singular rushing yard versus Drake May, who had about 450.
23:13You put total yardage together, that's another category that Drake May wins.
23:19You know, unfortunately, and I hate to do this, but it, you know, it fits my argument, so what the hell?
23:26You know, stat padding, from a stat padding perspective, Matthew Stafford, yeah, he had 46 touchdowns.
23:32He also had 13 from the one-yard line when most quarterbacks are handing off to their running back.
23:37So if we're going to keep leaning into touchdowns, touchdowns, touchdowns, doesn't it kind of matter how you got him in part two?
23:43But here's the problem I have with Adam, and you're right about that, because stat padding, a lot of people are going to look at final numbers.
23:50I actually bet on Drake May.
23:51One of my favorite bets was him throwing more than two touchdowns on Sunday, because I saw Matthew Stafford playing, go, you know what, for Abel?
23:56In the game, yes, they have to win, but there are ways that you can win by four touchdowns and say, you know what, Drake?
24:01Drake, you're going to get three to four touchdowns, because sometimes you just need that last taste in the mouth to try to push you over the top, which is why Drake May was like a minus 500 to win it the week before, and that was a minus 195 favorite for Matthew Stafford.
24:12Was there any talk in New England this week, like, hey, those lining him up at wide receiver on the one, have him throw a screen pass at the one yard line to get him three touchdowns, because I firmly believe he throws four touchdowns on Sunday.
24:23He's still the heavy favorite.
24:24Like, that one weekend was a huge flip.
24:27Yeah, and I saw your tweets, you know, calling coaching malpractice, all of these things, but I know they're not engineered to try and win games in a certain style, a la, you know, let's go out there and get our guy an award.
24:41They just want to win and get themselves ready for the playoffs.
24:43Team mentality around New England, fellas.
24:45I think we don't, you know, Grable might have cost himself coach of the year in the process, too.
24:49Who knows?
24:51Couchy Marketplace, baby!
24:53Who's ready to get after it here?
24:55Polymarket action, pro football talk, and away we go.
24:58It's on the right side of Joe Ranieri.
24:59Spirited conversation we absolutely love, which includes Joe still holding out for a Justin Herbert ticket for the MVP, and he's hoping that some of these voters don't turn their cards in and watch the game this weekend.
25:10And if Herbert wins an NFL championship, he should be the MVP, but I digress.
25:14The AFC championship winner might come down to the Patriots, or it can get down to the Chargers, or it could be the Pittsburgh Steelers.
25:20You get the point, but right now the Denver Broncos in the Couchy Marketplace right now, the favorites to win the AFC, 28% chance, which means if you invest $100, you pay back $358 if the Broncos win it.
25:33Joe, Broncos number one seed sitting back relaxing this weekend.
25:36Should they be the favorites, and would you invest in them?
25:38What is the second choice?
25:41Is it Buffalo, or what is it?
25:43New England.
25:44New England by 1% over Buffalo.
25:47Yes.
25:47Wow.
25:48Listen, I would bet all three, Donnie, as I treat you, because I think all three have a really—we already know Denver is advancing, right?
25:58So we already know Denver's waiting to play somebody.
26:00So if you like New England to beat the Chargers and you like Buffalo to beat Jacksonville, bet all three, because all three are going to increase in price by the time we talk about it again next week.
26:11No doubt it.
26:12And buddy, take a look at New England again.
26:13They've got a tough game going up against the Chargers.
26:15The Chargers are only 6%.
26:16The Chargers go in there and win that game.
26:18And also understand this.
26:19This isn't like, you know, 10.5 points spread.
26:22It's 3.5.
26:23It's not like, why do the Chargers even going to show up?
26:25Like, even if they lose, the odds makers are saying this should be a one-possession game late into the fourth quarter.
26:30So if you do invest in a 6% chance to win, not even the Super Bowl, just the AFC, $1,667 comes back to you.
26:38But as Joe pointed out, the goal isn't like, why pick the Chargers and I just got to ride this out and hopefully they win the AFC.
26:43No, the Chargers win.
26:44That 6% automatically doubles overnight because of the teams that are dropping out in front of them here.
26:49And you can cash out that ticket for a nice little investment price.
26:52For me, if I want to take a shot, it's probably not Denver.
26:55I like Denver.
26:56It's probably not New England.
26:57And it's still probably not Buffalo.
26:59Like, if I'm looking a little bit lower down, like Jacksonville, 14%.
27:02If they get by Buffalo, why not Jacksonville?
27:05They already showed they can go into Denver and win that game.
27:07Jacksonville, 14% here as an investment has my eye, Joe.
27:11Well, and again, it's a great correlated bet, Donnie.
27:15If I'm backing Jacksonville to win outright at home against Buffalo, then I better take that future bet.
27:22I better take that, you know, that future bet there with them winning it all at that price.
27:27Because, Donnie, if they do win, that's going to increase at least $0.10, if not more, by the time we see it again next week.
27:35So, I think that's a great correlated opportunity for folks.
27:38Back them in the game and back them in the future market.
27:42By the way, let's flip it over to the NFL draft.
27:44We always talk about who's going to be the number one overall pick.
27:46Probably going to be Fernando Mendoza at this point, right?
27:48We all think that's going to happen, and he probably should be, and away he goes to the Vegas Raiders.
27:52But who's going to be that number two overall pick?
27:54We go to Polymarket right now.
27:55By the way, Polymarket.
27:56Like, we love these markets, and we love to take a look at different, like, Kalshi marketplaces.
28:01Make it easier on us.
28:02Like, the chances.
28:03Put the best chances up top so I don't have to scroll down.
28:06Because right now, it goes, oh, look at that.
28:07Francis Maui Noah of the Miami Hurricanes could be.
28:10He's at a 6% chance.
28:11Wait a second.
28:12Now there's a 24, a 27, a 25, all the way down the list.
28:15Make it easier on the eyes, people.
28:17But by the way, who do you think, Joe, should be the number two overall pick in the NFL draft?
28:23What guy, for you, gets that done?
28:27Bain.
28:27Period.
28:29Go with defense.
28:30That's it.
28:31Hurricane Bain.
28:32Get it done, Donnie.
28:33Get it done.
28:34The Miami Hurricanes.
28:36Listen, you need somebody that can actually rush the pants.
28:39There's a pretty good guy at Ohio State, too, as well.
28:42I think there's going to be a surprise up at the top, Donnie.
28:46I don't think it's just going to be quarterback, quarterback.
28:48I don't think there's a ton of great quarterbacks in this draft to begin with.
28:52But I think there are more, there are better defensive guys, especially guys that can get
28:57the quarterback.
28:58And that's where I would focus.
29:00And also, am I doing this wrong?
29:01Because I put in a $100 wager to buy Reuben Bain at 15%.
29:05And it says I win 159.
29:07So assuming that means 259 in total back, like, I think Cal sheet includes your money back.
29:11So you have to sort of look at that a little bit different at this point.
29:15Sunday, Sunday, Sunday.
29:17Yes, we got action all weekend long.
29:19Thursday night football, Friday night football.
29:20Those are the college ranks.
29:22Saturday, Sunday, and Monday in the NFL.
29:23Let's take a look at that Sunday 1 o'clock game down in Duval County between Josh Allen
29:28and Trevor Lawrence.
29:29The line all week has been a favorite towards the Buffalo Bills.
29:32The road team and the lower seed at minus 1.5 and a total of 51.5.
29:37Some might say that's disrespectful.
29:39Vegas and the oddsmakers, they don't play disrespect.
29:41They play exactly what that line should be, whether you think it's a trap or not.
29:45Buffalo, as a favorite, Joe, once again, we'll start there.
29:48Agree or disagree?
29:51Oh, no, I agree.
29:53And I think the pro, listen, we talked about this in spread lines, right?
29:57There is a clear divide between the pros and the Joes.
30:01The public is all over Jacksonville.
30:04I mean, we're seeing, what, I mean, close to 70% of the tickets.
30:09We're seeing well over 55% of the money all going to Jacksonville.
30:14And yet this line remains the Bills, minus one to win it.
30:18And listen, the Bills, 28 and 13 straight up as road favorites under McDermott.
30:23They're also five and two in the wild card round in the postseason.
30:28So this team has been there.
30:31They have done this before.
30:32They never lose games that you expect them to win.
30:37Buffalo has the experience, has the right quarterback.
30:41They're going to handle business.
30:42I think Jacksonville will learn from this game.
30:45I think Jacksonville has to be something we consider to bet next year, Donnie.
30:49As soon as we possibly can, we'll look at Kalshi and Polymark
30:53and see if they have any numbers on them next year.
30:55Because I think this is going to be a great stepping stone for them for next year.
31:01But I think the Bills, too much Josh Allen, too much experience.
31:05I think they get the job done here.
31:07If not now, when?
31:08Most people are going to say we're Josh Allen.
31:10No Lamar Jackson in the playoffs.
31:11You don't even have your nemesis out there in Kansas City as the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.
31:15Can they get it done?
31:16Or is Trevor Lawrence the new nemesis here for the Buffalo Bills?
31:20But also understand this.
31:21Sometimes you take a look at, you know, patterns that actually happen.
31:24And I'm not a believer because I don't care what happened in 1987, 1988, 1989, whatever.
31:28But the Bills haven't won a road playoff game in 33 years.
31:31Well, Josh Allen didn't play 33 years ago as well.
31:33It is hard to win road playoff games.
31:36But does that streak sort of work into your handicapping or not at all, Joe?
31:41Yeah.
31:42I mean, listen, it's great.
31:44But what in the scope of things, it's just noise, right?
31:48Because what in the world over the late?
31:51This is not that this has no bearing on how old is Josh Allen even 33 years old?
31:56Like, what are we talking about here?
31:58It really does not matter.
32:01The only thing that matters is this current team and the numbers and the and the trends
32:07that we have seen this year.
32:08I can tell you this, I wouldn't be running the window to back the Bills early because
32:13we all know, take some a half, Donnie, before they can get the engines rolling and then they
32:18roll.
32:19So there are some current trends worth taking a look at in this game.
32:23Take a look at the San Francisco 49ers traveling east to take on the Philadelphia Eagles.
32:28This is one of those where you can't lose twice based off one game.
32:31Everything was in their grasp for the 49ers to have a bye week and the number one overall
32:35seed.
32:35But they lost to the Seattle Seahawks, who now in turn are division champions of the
32:39NFC West and also have the number one overall seed in the NFC and quite possibly the favorites
32:43here to get to the Super Bowl.
32:45But the Eagles are favored by four and a half points in a total of 44 and a half.
32:48By the way, Joe, I tweeted something out this morning, which I get a kick out of the Niners
32:52notoriously seem like they're injured way more than any other football team.
32:55And the story is coming out right now that a low frequency electromagnetic field can degrade
33:02collagen, weakened tendons and cause soft tissue damage.
33:05They actually have a electricity substation right next to the playing surface on the practice
33:12fields and the stadium at their Levi's Stadium, which I do think is hilarious.
33:16I retweeted that.
33:17You might want to catch up on that.
33:18But the Eagles are the favorites here.
33:19The Niners are banged up.
33:21The Eagles coming into this game, 22 or excuse me, 21 of 22 starters from opening day will
33:27be playing for the Eagles.
33:28That's not the case on the Niners.
33:29They're just trying to tape a football team out there.
33:32Yeah, well, we've seen, Donnie, and we've told you all week long, the money coming in
33:37on the under.
33:38And we agree with it because we don't believe this is going to be some sort of wild shootout.
33:42We think the defenses and the time of possession are going to play a huge role in this game.
33:48But when you look at the data here, I mean, the Eagles, Donnie, and you know this, they're
33:52four and four against the number at home this year.
33:55That's not great.
33:56You know, they have not really, and actually, as a favorite over the last couple of years
34:01in the postseason, they haven't done a great job of covering.
34:05So the fact that this has grown to four and a half, if you think this is going to be a
34:10lower scoring game and a field goal wins it, the value now is on the 49ers.
34:15But I get why all the money is coming in on the Eagles for sure.
34:18Also, Lane Johnson practiced yesterday, first time in a couple of weeks here.
34:22The best right tackle in football would give that offensive line a boost, and maybe they
34:25could run the football.
34:26If you can't run against the 49ers in their front seven right now, I don't know who you're
34:29going to run the football up against.
34:31We'll see on Sunday, San Francisco and Philadelphia.
34:33Let's head over to Monday night football.
34:35That is the Houston Texans, a dome team, as Joe likes to point out, heading out to the cold
34:40and wind in Pittsburgh.
34:41Three and a half was this number hanging all week long until we saw a shift yesterday.
34:45We started to see threes.
34:46Now, every outlet I'm looking at right now, Joe, now listed at minus three as a favorite
34:50towards Houston, not for Pittsburgh, and a low total of 39 and a half.
34:55How about that?
34:57Yeah, the total under 40 points.
34:59We get this.
35:01You know, it'll be a typical, you know, January evening in Pittsburgh there.
35:07It's going to be a lot colder.
35:08And we all know, listen, Houston has been fantastic.
35:10They are elite defensively, but a lot of that came from their ability to be able to play
35:16inside this year.
35:18This is a different animal.
35:20And more importantly, CJ Stroud has had a couple of wins in a wild card round over the
35:24last couple of years, Donnie.
35:25Yep.
35:26But it's important to know that those were home inside.
35:29This is a totally different animal going into this spot with one of the most experienced
35:35quarterbacks that we've ever seen in the league.
35:37It feels like this is a great opportunity for Pittsburgh, at the very least, to keep
35:44this game close, because I don't trust the Houston offense.
35:47So if I can get three and a half, Donnie, I'm taking the three and a half with Pittsburgh
35:52all day long.
35:53Mike Tomlin loves himself some defense.
35:55Here's Tomlin actually talking about the Houston Texans defense here.
35:59On the defensive side of the ball, they just got a kick butt unit.
36:03They do.
36:04They got a top-flight edge tandem in Hunter and Anderson.
36:10They got a top-flight corner tandem.
36:12I think they're number one in yards per game.
36:15They're in the top five in rush defense and pass defense, scoring, yards.
36:22And so, certainly, they've been top-tier and elite in just about all areas all year with
36:27that group.
36:28That group sets the pace for them.
36:30They play with great energy and emotion.
36:33They play well as a collective.
36:36They have an appetite for rising up in moments.
36:39It just seems like every week you're seeing game-changing and game-deciding plays from their
36:44defense in terms of closing close ballgames out.
36:48They make the necessary plays in waiting moments, really in all three phases.
36:54I think about a third and 14, I think, versus Jacksonville, where Davis Mills scrambles into
37:00the corner of the end zone to give them a late win at home versus those guys, for example.
37:06But you don't get in this tournament unless you had your moments.
37:09You certainly don't win nine straight unless you have continuity and complementary play.
37:17They're good in all three phases.
37:20I think about D'Amico Ryans when I watched their tape and how he played the game and a
37:25tip of the cap to him.
37:27I think that Houston Texans play collectively the way that he did.
37:32They're tough and smart.
37:34They play and play to win.
37:35How many cliches can we include in one clip, Joe?
37:39I think we got them all there, didn't we?
37:41Yeah, that was a lot.
37:44But that's Tomlin laying it out there for everyone.
37:48They look good.
37:49They're great.
37:50They're elite.
37:50They're okay.
37:51Giving a coach prop.
37:53All right.
37:53Well, let's see.
37:54Pittsburgh could very well be pretty good in this game defensively as well.
37:59How about news and notes around the NFL there?
38:01Las Vegas is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.
38:04Max Crosby.
38:04He got some cleanup surgery on his knee.
38:06Looking good right there, Joe.
38:08Flexing for the camera.
38:09Laying back in the hospital bed saying, year eight, going to be great.
38:13Yeah.
38:14Yeah.
38:14Likely not with Las Vegas, though, Don.
38:17We should probably throw that out there as well.
38:19Yeah.
38:19I doubt very much.
38:21He is going to be there.
38:22I don't know.
38:22Would he?
38:23I don't know.
38:23I don't know.
38:23I don't know.
38:23Trades him.
38:24Look, that's the two first-round picks you can get back.
38:26You can start a dynasty.
38:27You got your quarterback.
38:28Yes.
38:29You rebuild the right way.
38:30We're Tom Brady.
38:31Going to burn all that up at this point right now.
38:33Well, we'll find out shortly on that.
38:35More hot topics on the way.
38:36This is The Early Line.
38:37It's time, people.
38:39Like, we got big-time football to talk about.
38:41College tonight.
38:42College tomorrow.
38:42NFL this weekend.
38:43And away we go.
38:44Donnie Wrightside and Joe Ranieri.
38:45And Lear we have.
38:47And I know it says that the guy's name wrong.
38:49And I don't know why we're calling him Adam Kaufman in the background here.
38:51But you know who he is.
38:53He's the prime minister.
38:54It's Cam Stewart.
38:55He's live with us.
38:56We got it corrected.
38:57We're here.
38:57The energy is high.
38:58And a big weekend on deck.
38:59Hey, guys.
39:00I'm out of Boston.
39:01I love the Patriots.
39:02And I love everything Boston.
39:05Hello, everybody.
39:05Just joking at them.
39:06Love you, buddy.
39:07Hey, how we doing?
39:08Welcome, guys.
39:09We got a lot of football coming up.
39:10Can't wait.
39:11Golf right around the corner.
39:12We got college football.
39:13We got pro football.
39:14And Donnie, what do we got tonight, pal?
39:17The old Philadelphia Flyers versus the Leafs.
39:20I have something for you as prime minister.
39:22You know, we have, like, Florida Clementines versus a case of maple syrup.
39:26How about a scotch for Donnie and an ice-cold Guinness for me?
39:29If we ever meet each other again, Donnie.
39:31Donnie, certainly bet on the game.
39:32You get your Flyers, and I get the Leafs.
39:36Absolutely beautiful, Cam.
39:38Look at that.
39:38We got the Flyboys playing tonight.
39:40Maybe a big zagorous night for the boys out here in the streets.
39:42We also can.
39:44We love this because the Buffalo Bills have a monster game this weekend.
39:47It seems like the narrative now is if Josh Allen can't get it done this year,
39:50he's never going to get it done.
39:51No Lamar Jackson out there.
39:53No Patrick Mahomes.
39:54But the Buffalo Bills are the favorite here, Cam, to take on Jacksonville.
39:57The higher-seeded team is Buffalo.
39:59The lower-seeded team here, as soon as I'm saying, reverse, is Jacksonville.
40:02Do you agree they should be a favorite?
40:03Also, Cam, what are we seeing here?
40:04Buffalo Jags this weekend.
40:06This is one of the toughest games on the board, Donnie.
40:08I've got to be honest with you.
40:08I like a lot of the other games better.
40:10I like what Joe said, too.
40:11Everybody's on Houston.
40:12I'm going to take a shot with Pitt if I can get that hook.
40:14But I'm on Buffalo.
40:16I expect this game to be a track meet, guys.
40:17But I'll tell you, the Jacksonville Jaguars are a team you don't want to play.
40:21Trevor Lawrence looks like an absolute beast right now.
40:23That defense is good.
40:24But basically, what Buffalo has to do, James Cook has to be a huge part of this game and
40:28open things up.
40:30Allen can't freak out.
40:31He's just got to do his thing.
40:32Don't force the ball and just march down the field and get things done.
40:35I'm expecting a back-and-forth battle.
40:37I really worry about that Buffalo run defense, guys, and their defense in general.
40:40But if Buffalo's going to be in this game, they're going to have to score points and
40:43be in a track meet.
40:44But I think the Bills finally do squeak it out.
40:47Jacksonville, we've been on them a lot, guys.
40:48You know, versus Denver.
40:49Like, we got this hot streak.
40:51But now or never, Buffalo, I got to tell you, man, too, it's what we got.
40:54Wright's kicking now, too.
40:56If they have to set up for a game-winning field goal with Matthew right here.
40:59Uh-oh, Spaghetti-O.
41:00We could have some big, big problems here.
41:02But I'm taking the Bills in that spot.
41:04Guys, actually, a game that I like.
41:06I'm not sure how you feel about this.
41:07I like the Chargers-Patriots under, if that makes any sense.
41:10I'm looking at the under in this spot.
41:12I think there's going to be more defense.
41:14Obviously, I think the Chargers defense steps up.
41:17And I think they're going to try to grind it on the ground against New England.
41:20And I think that game doesn't get over 47.
41:22Rams look pretty good to me, Donnie.
41:24I don't know how you guys feel about that big spread.
41:25I think they kicked the crap out of Carolina.
41:27Also, we're a bench spot from a loss in the regular season.
41:30And I like the Packers.
41:31I know they get another chance.
41:32They've looked awful with all their injuries.
41:34But I'm telling you, watching that Lions game, they exploited the Bears with slant patterns.
41:38A lot of quick hitters.
41:39And I think Green Bay could do the same.
41:42So that's what I'm looking at, guys, right now.
41:44But, Donnie, I'm on the Bills.
41:46But let's just say this.
41:47Hold your breath.
41:47Because it's not going to be easy for these guys.
41:49Tough matchup versus the Jags.
41:52I think they roll them, Cam.
41:54I think experience matters.
41:56They're going to roll them.
41:57What is going on here?
41:58They're going to roll them.
42:00Wow, I didn't see that one coming.
42:01Bills by a million.
42:02Bills by a million.
42:04Let me ask you this, Cam.
42:06If there is going to be an upset in this wild card weekend here, who would be the one team to win outright as a dog here?
42:15Who would you lean towards?
42:17Great question, Joe.
42:18I'm going to say the Chargers.
42:20I think the Chargers can beat the Patriots.
42:22And 1B, the Niners.
42:25Donnie, I know you're going to want to.
42:27Cut the Prime Minister's mic.
42:28He's gone.
42:29Bye.
42:29Thanks for seeing you guys.
42:30Enjoy the numbers.
42:30Pay your bills, Cam.
42:31Let's say Camden pays bills.
42:32Anyway, I'm just saying, I don't like what I've seen from Philadelphia, but for me, it's the Chargers.
42:38New England's still a team.
42:39I think they can be exploited.
42:41I'm not really sold on their defense.
42:42I know Vrabel's a good coach, but I expect Harbaugh to come up with a game plan, grind it out, field position, battle.
42:47Also, you know, we get a little bit more time for Herbert to get healthy in this game.
42:51So I know the Chargers are probably a popular dog, but I'm going to say, Joe's might be on to something, though.
42:56I don't know one person, guys, on this network or other shows that we've done that is taking the Pittsburgh Steelers.
43:01And that's a very dangerous game that we're playing with everybody on Houston.
43:05So something to look at as well.
43:07I think the San Francisco 49ers can hang, Donnie.
43:09And I think if the Eagles win, it's by a very, very close margin.
43:12That lines up to four and a half.
43:13But for me, I'd have to say Chargers.
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