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00:00That defense is going to have to show up in the NFL on Saturday night game.
00:02Number two, it's Baltimore and it's Green Bay.
00:04Huntley expected to be the starter for the Baltimore Ravens.
00:08We don't know who's going to be the starter for the Green Bay Packers,
00:10but my goodness, each and every day,
00:11Jordan Love passing another step in that concussion protocol.
00:14Could he come back a week later after getting that concussion
00:16that we saw against the Chicago Bears?
00:18If not, it's going to be Huntley.
00:20But if, excuse me, it's going to be Malik Willis.
00:23If we look at the line, Joe, open up a three and a half.
00:25We're not seeing four and a half across the board.
00:26That line is certainly an indicator of the information,
00:29the impact that Lamar Jackson won't be in this game and a 40 and a half total.
00:32What's your spread line here for that Green Bay Baltimore game?
00:36Well, the initial, when we heard that information come out yesterday,
00:39when it was released, we I'm watching the board light up, Donnie.
00:42And again, numbers went up as high as minus six for Green Bay.
00:48And then all of a sudden we started to see some buyback.
00:51They settled in at around four, four and a half across the board,
00:55but there was a big overreaction.
00:57And the thing that got me was, who do we, who's playing quarterback for Green Bay?
01:02Not to mention that with Detroit losing, Green Bay's already clinched the playoff spot now.
01:08So how much is Green Bay going to lay it out on a line,
01:12knowing they're already in the playoffs?
01:14Not to mention they're all, it doesn't make any sense unless they all in on winning the NFC North.
01:21I don't know why they're risking anything with Jordan Love for this game that ultimately means nothing.
01:27They're already in the playoffs, Donnie.
01:29Like I know it's the list of the doctors and if he's cleared, he's cleared.
01:32But look, your goal is to win a Super Bowl and have a franchise quarterback.
01:35If you're already in the playoffs, you're probably not going to win that division.
01:37But you can still win this football game, even with Malik Willis at quarterback going up against Baltimore.
01:42Joe is right about that.
01:42Those lines probably going to change once we hear who the official starter is.
01:46Might be getting that a little bit later today in that concussion protocol.
01:48Houston and the Los Angeles Chargers, one and a half point favorite now towards the Chargers, Joe, 39 and a half.
01:54Give me a quick spread line for Texans Chargers tomorrow in the afternoon.
01:57Well, what you need to know here is that this line is telling us, Donnie,
02:01that Houston on a neutral site would be your favorite in this game between these two teams.
02:07If you believe that, then bet Houston.
02:10If you don't believe it, bet the Chargers.
02:12Good games.
02:13At least we should have close games, what we're anticipating here on Saturday.
02:16More NFL news and notes and topics which includes Baltimore going to have a new quarterback next year.
02:22Lamar Jackson probably won't start this weekend as it looks like going up against the Green Bay Packers.
02:26But that's not a time that we can't start the speculation if the Ravens get knocked out of the playoff picture this weekend.
02:32That week 18, he's probably not going to play.
02:35And then we start to ask the questions, Joe and Erie, where is Lamar Jackson going to play in 2026?
02:39Well, a report comes out that says Lamar Jackson would love to play for the Miami Dolphins if the Ravens were to move on from him, per the Baltimore Sun.
02:48So now we're already looking for trades at this point.
02:50And also, does he already understand, Joe, that he wants out of town?
02:53So I'm not risking it anymore with this Baltimore franchise.
02:56Let me just sit out.
02:58And I don't mean to question a player's toughness.
03:01They're NFL players.
03:02They're tough as all get out.
03:03But sometimes you look at injuries on the field, like, oh, that looks terrible.
03:06And I don't know if I see the injury right there.
03:09And he's going to miss the half last week and also looks like this game and then possibly week 18.
03:14Joe, Lamar Jackson on the Miami Dolphins in a trade in the offseason.
03:18Does that even make sense?
03:19Well, do something because it's it's.
03:22Yeah.
03:22I mean, what difference does it make?
03:24Miami, Baltimore.
03:25The guy is another one of these walking disasters waiting to happen.
03:29And by the way, I mean, this would be a fourth game miss this season by him.
03:34He's hamstring, knee, ankle, toe and now back injuries here.
03:41Does that sound like a guy I want to count on?
03:42No, it does not here, especially given the fact that the only way you can prevent a lot of that is to keep them in the pocket and not let them get destroyed running the ball.
03:51But guess what?
03:52That's not going to happen.
03:54So I don't know.
03:55Listen, this feels like it's been a long time coming here.
03:59This breakup between the Ravens and Lamar, I think if they were eliminated last weekend, right, or if it had come down to it where these games meant nothing, he'd be on the IR, Donnie, and that would be the end of it, right?
04:11But if he doesn't go in this game and Harbaugh keeps saying if he can go, he'll go, you know, don't forget they got fined big time.
04:19Was it a half a million dollars earlier this year for apparently playing shenanigans with whether he was going or not going in a game?
04:26Remember that line craziness?
04:28Well, apparently they're not dealing with that anymore.
04:30They're like, listen, he didn't practice.
04:32He's doubtful at best.
04:34But if he can go, they didn't rule him out.
04:36They just said doubtful.
04:37So there is still a chance he could be under center tomorrow there for the Ravens.
04:43The tough part is, too, is like Lamar Jackson, when he came on such a whirlwind in Baltimore, you couldn't tackle the kid.
04:48Like you said, OK, he'll learn how to pass.
04:50And he has done a very good job of that.
04:52But his 29-year-old age, a lot different than others because he's built on, if I'm not in the pocket here, you can't catch me.
04:58A lot of people are catching him right now.
05:00And certainly you never get healthier as your career moves on.
05:03Something interesting to watch.
05:04If it does happen in the offseason also, Joe, if Baltimore does have a new coach and a new quarterback next year, something certainly to talk about.
05:11But if we do talk about the Vikings here, I mean, I don't know.
05:14They won that game yesterday.
05:15Barely any offense whatsoever.
05:17But here's one of those more disturbing things that you hear.
05:19Three concussions in one season for Ryan Kelly.
05:22That's never a good sign.
05:23Sixth documented concussion since only 2023.
05:27The man's got to hang it up, man.
05:28Come on.
05:30It's unfortunate, too, because the guy has been an amazing part of the offensive philosophy and the line there, too.
05:38The guy's one of the better centers, and listen, that's one of those facts of reality.
05:43And, you know, if this was 20 years ago or so, Donnie, we probably would not even know that he's had any of these.
05:49And chances are, Donnie, how many more do you think he's had other than the six documented ones?
05:54What do you think?
05:54How many more?
05:56A ton.
05:56And by the way, put that graphic back up or that picture we just showed of Ryan Kelly.
06:00So for the people out there that say, why wear this, you know, this Guardian cap, it helps.
06:04How will that help him this year with three concussions with that on your head?
06:08Exactly.
06:08It's basically putting a quarter inch of pillow on your helmet is supposed to stop a 30-mile-an-hour wreck.
06:14Get that.
06:14Stop the madness at this point.
06:16Those things aren't helping at all.
06:17T.J. Watt, those practice, he's looking to come back, but also, do they even need him to come back this weekend?
06:22They're probably going to be in the playoffs by the time they take the field here, Joe.
06:25How about that?
06:26Yes, could very well.
06:28And then at that point, they got a decision to make, right?
06:30So there are some very, these two games tomorrow are going to go a long way to helping us understand what we might see on Sunday.
06:40So this time of year, tread carefully with getting some of these early bets in, Donnie.
06:46Travis Kelsey to retire?
06:48Well, it was emotional yesterday.
06:49Here's Andy Reid talking about it.
06:50I don't know if it is or not.
06:52I haven't talked to him, but I think his numbers and personality and the person, you know, I think speak for themselves.
07:02Phenomenal person, great for the community, has been great for the community.
07:06So he's everything, you know, you want from a player representing an organization.
07:14Perfect time to dip out now.
07:18Injuries, miss the playoffs, right off in the sunset with your billionaire wife, start a family and get after it.
07:25Yep.
07:25Some will say, you know, I'd rather be gone a year early as opposed to a year late.
07:30But, you know, time to move on there, Travis.
07:34Yeah, look, he could clearly come back.
07:36There's no question.
07:37But you watch his game.
07:38He ain't the same player as he was.
07:40Perfect time to get out of town.
07:41Week 17 in the NFL.
07:44Ooh, what a great start yesterday.
07:46Well, if you like bad quarterback play, you got a lot of it yesterday.
07:50And hopefully it gets better as the week goes on.
07:51But I don't know if it does because some quarterbacks might not even be playing tomorrow, which we'll get into in just a few moments.
07:57Down here, right side, Joe Reniero.
07:58Let's welcome in Tom Vecchio post Christmas holiday where the commanders, the lion, or excuse me, the commanders, Vikings, and also the chiefs as dogs.
08:07Tom, all covered yesterday.
08:09How about that?
08:10They did.
08:11You know, Joe and I were live yesterday.
08:13We were talking about that.
08:14We saw the exact same thing play out on Thanksgiving.
08:16And granted, some of the dogs were winning outright on Thanksgiving.
08:19But, you know, games were close for the most part.
08:22They were pretty.
08:23I'm not going to say they were the most exciting, entertaining games that we've seen.
08:26But they were close.
08:27You know, last night's game, especially in Kansas City, went basically exactly as we talked about.
08:33It was going to be under.
08:33It was going to be ugly.
08:34There wasn't going to be a whole lot of scoring.
08:35Denver found a way to get a win.
08:36But Kansas City covered.
08:38And we're on to an interesting weekend where we have two games on Saturday.
08:41Still with quarterback questions, as you mentioned.
08:44Yeah, let me ask you a quick question, too, on those quarterback games on Saturday.
08:47If I had to give you a test right now, Tom, to pass it and find those two quarterbacks,
08:53who are those two quarterbacks do you think going to be playing tomorrow in that Green Bay and Baltimore game?
08:58I think it's going to be Tyler Huntley and Jordan Love.
09:01I really do think Love will end up starting, assuming that he's cleared from concussion protocol.
09:07Because, you know, as we noted yesterday, the Packers officially clinched their spot.
09:11So if you were to rest him this week and he's not ready to go, there would be no reason to start him in week 18.
09:17And that would be giving him two weeks off, which I think is a bit much.
09:20So if he's ready to go, start him this week, rest him next week.
09:24We also talked about, Tom, when you look ahead, right?
09:27I mean, Chicago is interesting because, obviously, they have the lead in the AFC North.
09:33But, you know, they've got, I think, a pretty tough spot ahead of them against the 49ers here.
09:39If you're starting Jordan Love, then you're basically saying, listen, we're going after the AFC North.
09:45You're going to have to play a game in Lambeau.
09:47I don't – otherwise, why start Jordan Love if you're not really trying to get that conference champion, division championship?
09:56Right, and that's what a lot of it comes down to, you know, what each team is going to be prioritizing.
10:01Obviously, it starts off with the Packers because even if they start Love and then they lose, that changes things of what we see tomorrow night and, obviously, what we see Sunday and week 18 going forward.
10:10You know, as we talked about, I think the Bears having home field advantage is just a little bit more important.
10:16It's not like there's obviously going to be a dramatic difference between the weather of one spot to the other.
10:19It could be exactly the same, but just a second-year quarterback with a rookie head coach on the road, you wouldn't want that to be happening.
10:27You wouldn't want that to be at home for the Bears, that would be.
10:29So, the Packers, they have the pieces.
10:31They have the path forward to get it done.
10:33It's really what comes down to what we get from the Ravens.
10:36That's going to determine everything of if the Packers are going to push back or if they even need to push back.
10:41Yeah, let's take a look at that game tomorrow night, too, because you're going to have Baltimore and Green Bay.
10:45Again, we don't know exactly who the quarterbacks will be, but if you are progressing through your concussion protocol and get cleared, you're probably going to start.
10:51And it is a meaningful game for the Green Bay Packers with a chance to try to catch the Chicago Bears.
10:56Line opened up around three.
10:57We're sitting at four and a half because that's the news that Lamar Jackson is not going to play in this game, and it's probably going to be Huntley.
11:02And a total of 40 and a half.
11:04Tom, I watched a game with Baltimore last week and thought it was a great spot for them.
11:07They blew the double digits in the fourth quarter because their defense could not stop anything in the passing game.
11:12So if you were going to get a healthy Watson, who's actually a little bit under the weather but expected to play, and also a healthy quarterback in Jordan Love,
11:19shouldn't they be able to move the football against that Baltimore secondary?
11:22I would like to think so.
11:23You know, I'm really thinking, like, if we do see Tyler Huntley start, you know, what's their ceiling when it comes to – not even ceiling.
11:30You know, what's their median outcome when it comes to points being scored?
11:34And I think that's in that 14 to 17 range.
11:37Maybe they could push it to 20.
11:39So if they can push it to 17 or 20, I would like to think that the Packers can get to at least 24.
11:45So the Packers winning this game 24-17, we get a decent amount of scoring.
11:49We're talking about five touchdowns at that point, really, like three from the Packers and a field goal, and then two from the Ravens.
11:54That's what my expectation would be.
11:56So a modest amount of scoring I wouldn't be surprised by, but also the Packers probably being in control the whole game
12:02is what we should be expecting if we do see love start.
12:06Yeah.
12:06What about that game tomorrow that should be actually pretty entertaining and possibly a future playoff game
12:14between the Chargers and the Texans here?
12:18You know, the line has flipped.
12:20Texans open up as a favorite.
12:22Chargers now getting all the love.
12:24Are you a Houston backer here?
12:26What do you think?
12:27You know, I would like to back Houston.
12:29This actually was the playoff matchup of the wild card last year where Herbert threw, what, three or four picks?
12:36Now, granted, that was on the road.
12:37They were in Houston a little bit different.
12:39But, you know, I don't have a strong take on this game.
12:42It's a coin flip game to begin with.
12:44It's not like we're dealing with a super high total.
12:45I don't expect this to be flying over.
12:47If it sneaks over, you know, and we have a 24-20 type of final, I'm not going to be shocked at either team winning.
12:53You know, I would lean on Houston just a little bit.
12:55I don't trust their offense, you know, as far as I can throw them.
12:58But I do love what we're getting from their defense.
13:00And, you know, Herbert had really slow games.
13:03He was averaging, well, 175 yards passing per game.
13:06And the last week he explodes.
13:07But last week it was against Dallas.
13:09So we're going to fall back down to in between what he was doing and the 300 yards from last week.
13:13We can't take that as, like, the new standard for Herbert because it was against Dallas.
13:17He's going to fall into that 225 range.
13:19And if the rushing game can't get going, I'm not sure how much they're going to be able to move the ball.
13:23But at a certain point, I'm not sure how much the Texans are going to need to score.
13:28No, you're right about that.
13:29And it's – I think the gauge is, like, I think we know what we're probably going to get from the Chargers.
13:33They'll try to hold up that offensive line.
13:35Herbert's going to make plays.
13:36He's got some solid wide receivers and a new-look backfield.
13:38We like that.
13:38But sometimes you watch Houston.
13:40It's like, yeah, that defense is awesome.
13:41But when the offense steps up for Houston, hey, they could make a run.
13:44And then we see games like last week.
13:46I'm like, man, that's the Raiders that you barely could put away at this point.
13:49And that gets stuck in people's head.
13:50Tom, I know a way that we usually like to look at these games from Herbert's perspective.
13:54He's very athletic.
13:54You don't think of a guy that's, like, 6'6 in the pocket can move around and get extra yards.
13:58Bad offensive line.
13:59Good pass rush.
14:00I'm seeing 23-and-a-halves in the marketplace for Herbert on the ground.
14:04And at the end of the season where it's like, hey, kid, don't run in week number three.
14:08Do you think he can get over that number?
14:09Maybe 25 rushing yards in this game against Houston?
14:12I really think he should be able to.
14:14And, you know, comes down and says, listen, if he's willing to throw himself, you know, all over the place six days after he had hand surgery, you know, a couple weeks ago against the Eagles, he should be able to get it done in this spot.
14:26And, you know, the wide receivers are fantastic.
14:28They're obviously facing a very tough defense.
14:29The pass rush for Houston is also fantastic.
14:32So, you know, this game's sneaking over the total.
14:34But Herbert going over his yardage on the ground, I could very easily see happening.
14:39Tom, give me a quick one.
14:40Tank Fest on Sunday, 4-0-5.
14:41Giants-Vegas, Giants with actually the favorite right now.
14:44Nobody wants to win this game.
14:45Raiders win.
14:47Raiders win.
14:47Oh, Carol and Jim Smith, the veteran in them, go out and win the game wrongly, even though it's no rough hours.
14:55Jackson Dart over under five and a half pass attempts in that game.
14:58We'll find out, Tom.
14:59Thanks for joining us on a Friday.
15:00We look forward to talking to you more over the weekend.
15:03It's early on on the Sports Grid Network.
15:05Well, we should think getting good playoff game or getting games that have playoff determinations on Saturday.
15:09And those games should be quite entertaining.
15:11We never know what we're going to get.
15:12You had three bad quarterbacks yesterday.
15:14And you had three really good covers from the underdog teams.
15:17Now, games on Saturday, Joe, a four-and-a-half point spread currently and a one-and-a-half point spread currently.
15:22Let's focus on that early game tomorrow, which starts at 4-30.
15:254-11, 4-12 on the rotation.
15:27It's Houston and it's Los Angeles.
15:29Big playoff implications for both sides here.
15:31The favorite opened up on the look-ahead line, Joe, as a one-and-a-half point favorite towards Houston.
15:35It swung over to the Chargers at one-and-a-half to two, depending on where you're shopping at.
15:41And ticket count, only about 40% of the tickets showing right now currently at most outlets here on the Chargers.
15:46A total at 39-and-a-half.
15:48It just comes down to this.
15:50Can that offensive line, Joe, for the Los Angeles Chargers hold up against a really good and physical defensive line for the Houston Texans?
15:58That's going to be your key to victory.
15:59But that line swinging with a little reverse line movement there, how about that for the Chargers?
16:04What do you think about that?
16:05Well, you know, and again, Donnie, we talked about it on these spread lines where this line is telling you that on a neutral field, the Texans are better.
16:14And I don't know.
16:16You've got to give Justin Herbert credit, who has been under immense pressure every time he drops back.
16:23I believe a league high, 47% of his dropbacks over the last month, Donnie, have had to deal with him being under consistent pressure.
16:32Why? Because his offensive line is a hot mess right now.
16:35You can't lose both starting tackles and think everything is going to be good to go.
16:40But you know what?
16:40Here he is.
16:41He's at home.
16:42He's done it.
16:42He's got the wide receivers.
16:44He's got the skill position.
16:45He has a running game.
16:47You know, last year, Donnie, 14-32, 242, four picks in that playoff game against Houston, against that defense.
16:55They're going to try to mimic that, Houston.
16:58Listen, Harbaugh and company have been probably waiting for this rematch for a while.
17:03I do think the right team is favored at home here.
17:06Would not shock me if Herbert and company are the ones on top when it's all said and done.
17:10Yeah, toe-to-toe.
17:11If you take a look at the player passing props numbers here, 219.5 for C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert at 211.5.
17:17You want him to throw a couple touchdowns.
17:19You're getting plus money in this game.
17:20Over one and a half touchdowns for Herbert, plus 124 for Stroud, up to a plus 144 number.
17:26It just feels like you would trust Herbert more in this game.
17:29But as Joe pointed out, you haven't been able to trust him a lot in some of these big, high-leverage pressure situations.
17:34Maybe you can bust that trend.
17:35But most notably, as we keep pointing out, you're only as good as your offensive line.
17:39If they can't block for it, you saw it yesterday multiple times.
17:42I don't care if you're Jarrett got for whoever.
17:44If you're constantly getting pressured or on your back, that's going to affect you.
17:47But Justin Herbert, only 211.5 is a quite low number because you don't feel like you're just going to be able to control the game on the ground against Houston.
17:54You're going to have to make plays in that passing game.
17:57Yeah, and listen, you're also going to have to make, if you're C.J. Stroud, you could be down both starting tackles in this game.
18:04And you already don't have marks available as a running back.
18:08So now your running game is going to be nonexistent, and you're likely, they're not going to have to blitz to get pressure on him.
18:15Because that's the whole thing with the Chargers defense, Donnie, is they don't have to blitz you.
18:19They can get there with four guys up front.
18:22So this is going to be a huge test for C.J. Stroud and the Texans' offense.
18:27I would likely look to fade that number passing.
18:30Yeah, anytime touchdown prop in this game, everybody's plus money, Joe.
18:34Amari and Hampton, plus 140, the leader in the clubhouse in the odds market, followed by Woody Marks, plus 155.
18:39Nico at 165.
18:40Then Ladd McConkie, Dalton Schultz, Quinton Johnson, and Oronday Gadsden.
18:44Anybody catching your eye here?
18:45Because it's all plus money.
18:46Pick two or three of them out.
18:47Just get one of them.
18:48You could probably come away with some nice cash.
18:50Well, the one thing the defense of the Chargers doesn't do well is they don't cover tight ends all that well.
18:56So Dalton Schultz is going to need to have a big day here for Stroud.
19:01That's the guy I would focus on for an anytime touchdown.
19:04Take a look at that second game here, the late game, the Baltimore Ravens and the Green Bay Packers.
19:08We told you about a four and a half point spread as a favorite now towards those Green Bay Packers in a total listed at 40 and a half.
19:15Not bad weather conditions, Joe.
19:16Around 40 degrees at kickoff.
19:17No precipitation, winds around 10 miles per hour.
19:21So it should be clean.
19:22It's just a matter of like what version of these two teams are we getting?
19:25If we're getting Jordan Love, I can't imagine you're going into that game as a Baltimore Ravens and feeling a lot of confidence.
19:30And also, just the way that defense collapsed in the fourth quarter, you get one of those passing games going there for Green Bay.
19:36I don't know how they can hold up, man.
19:37But I'm waiting to see, Joe, who that quarterback's going to be.
19:40How about yourself?
19:42I don't understand.
19:43We just watched guys off the street put on a uniform and start in games that the teams covered.
19:51And we're thinking that, what, Tyler Huntley is not a step above what we just watched yesterday on Kansas City and Minnesota?
19:58I don't know.
19:59I would only be looking at the dog in this spot, Donnie.
20:02And you know what else I'm looking at?
20:03The rotation of the running backs in this game.
20:06Because if you just had your hammer in the game, maybe you won last week.
20:10You're not on the brink of elimination.
20:12So drive number two, Mitchell comes in the game or whatever.
20:16Come on, man.
20:16Stop the madness.
20:17Right away.
20:17You're handling the football 30 times.
20:19If you lose, you lose.
20:20Hey, look, I gave you guys what you wanted at this point.
20:22You know what else you want?
20:23Power number two coming up next.
20:24Joe Ranieri down here right side.
20:25Right here on a Friday, Football Friday.
20:28You know, being around the block many times during the handicapping game and seeing where lines move and you say, ooh, that doesn't look so right.
20:35Or also yesterday, we're like, okay, an easy three-game, you know, money line parlay should pay you out on Thanksgiving or, excuse me, on Christmas Day.
20:42And it did because somebody always trips you up.
20:44As we like to say, Joe, it's hard enough to win just one game, let alone parlay into two, regardless of the point spreads.
20:51Let's take a look at a game that's going to take place on Sunday, Joe.
20:53Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
20:54Pittsburgh, if they win, they will clinch the division and knock the Baltimore Ravens out of the playoffs, regardless of anything that happens with Baltimore if they can pull a victory on Saturday against Green Bay.
21:04Shadour Sanders still trying to learn the ropes as an NFL quarterback.
21:06They're banged up.
21:07I don't really know how much they're trying to win, but this line goes from four and a half to three.
21:11Some weather conditions in the fold, 34 and a half as a total.
21:1520% of the tickets coming in on Cleveland, and yet that line is dropping down, Joe.
21:19Are they setting us up for a pros versus Joeser?
21:22Don't outsmart yourself.
21:23Pittsburgh's the better team.
21:24How do we play this game on Sunday afternoon?
21:28Oh, well, no, the pros are clearly on the Browns.
21:31The public is all over the Steelers here, right?
21:35So the interesting part is how low this total is, because I think if it hits 33 and a half, Donnie, this would be the lowest total that Aaron Rodgers in 276 career starts will ever have in any game here.
21:50And I think it makes sense here, though, because, again, my thing is, who are you beating this Browns secondary with deep?
21:58You don't have anybody.
22:00Like, the guy you did have is now suspended because he's beating up fans in the stands, so they have no deep threat.
22:07They have nobody to stretch the field.
22:10Aaron Rodgers is not going to hang around in the pocket with Miles Garrett coming after him.
22:15So this leads to a very low-scoring game.
22:18And the lower the scoring, Donnie, the better chance the Browns have of pulling off the upset at home.
22:25Divisional game, road favorite for the Steelers.
22:28It's no wonder why the Browns are getting all the love here from the pros in this.
22:33I like it.
22:33I don't think it's a great matchup right now for this current version of the Steelers, who might have a hard time putting the ball in the end zone here without Metcalf.
22:44Yeah, where's the big plays coming from in this game, outside of maybe an interception or a touchdown by the defense?
22:49And also understand this, Joe, looking for ticket counts on the over-under.
22:5184% of the tickets actually on the over because the public is saying, wait, 33, 34 and a half.
22:57There's no way that goes over.
22:59Fast forward to Sunday when you have another one of those 16 plays, 10-minute drives that ends up in a 32-yard field going back.
23:06Wait, what happened at this point here?
23:07Something to keep an eye on.
23:09We talked about this game with Tom previous.
23:11The New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders.
23:14Nobody wants to win this game, which is absolutely sensational.
23:17Now, you say to yourself, Vegas, they're probably more in line.
23:20They're the home football team.
23:21You still have a veteran quarterback that's going to play.
23:23Pete Carroll, like, should be in a nursing home at this point.
23:25I'm thinking he's still playing for the Super Bowl as opposed to just losing and getting the better draft pick.
23:29The New York Giants told you in that game against Minnesota, we actively don't want to win.
23:34Matter of fact, we won't even throw passes.
23:36And we have a chance to kick a field goal on fourth and sixth.
23:39We're still going to go for it, hoping we don't actually pick it up.
23:42Joe, this line opened up as a 3.5-point favorite for the Giants.
23:45Actually was a favorite towards Vegas a little bit earlier in the week.
23:49Now we're back to the Giants.
23:50The Giants, a favorite on the road?
23:52How can you even handicap this game?
23:54But what do you think happens here?
23:56Well, let me say this.
23:58Donnie, this game is making history.
24:00All right?
24:01And not in a very good way.
24:03Because the Raiders have now lost nine consecutive games outright.
24:08The Giants have lost nine consecutive games outright.
24:12Would you believe, Donnie, this is the first game in the Super Bowl era between teams that have both lost at least nine games in a row?
24:20Somebody has got to go ahead and win it, right?
24:24Or maybe not, Donnie.
24:25What are the odds on this game landing a tie?
24:28Because something tells me that would be absolutely fitting where this game lands in a tie and that's it.
24:35I mean, both teams on nine-game losing streaks.
24:39Come on.
24:39This game is going to be awful.
24:41I want nothing to do with it.
24:42And again, it's a shame, too, because you can't have a perfect season where every game matters in 17 and 18.
24:49It looks like we're getting really bad football games for the most part in Week 17 and 18 because most things have already been decided.
24:55Like the New England Patriots are going to take on the New York Jets this weekend.
24:58The Jets don't have any business even trying to be competitive or win football games, but you can still be competitive like we saw from the Chiefs last night, getting about 14 points, hanging within that number.
25:08Cook has looked bad.
25:08The defenses look terrible.
25:10Drake May coming off that unbelievable comeback performance.
25:12You can shut the door on the Buffalo Bills.
25:14How do we feel about this game one o'clock in the Meadowlands, which sees a nine-and-a-half price point up to now 13-and-a-half in a divisional game for the Patriots?
25:23So the Patriots have some interesting history with the Jets as double-digit favorites, right?
25:28If you go back to the Belichick era and when Vrabel was a player in Tom Brady, they're 14-and-1 straight up against the Jets as a double-digit favorite.
25:39But, Donnie, they're only 8-and-7 against the number.
25:42So this is – it's not been – they've won these games, but asking them to win by margin has been a little bit more difficult here.
25:50But Vrabel has a history as a head coach of being really good against bad teams.
25:55I think 27-and-6 straight up, 15-and-5 against the number.
26:00He is the most profitable head coach against under 500 teams currently in the NFL.
26:07If it ain't broke, are we fixing it?
26:09I don't know.
26:09I think maybe the Patriots are looking to – are looking to roll into Week 18 here and lock this thing up.
26:17Yeah, it's one of the – because, again, when you take these higher numbers, you almost feel like you're going to get the best punch out of the New England Patriots,
26:23at least in the first half, and then sort of wind it down, if you will.
26:25But you look at the 13-and-1, it's still division.
26:28It's still tough.
26:28It's a road game.
26:29It's not even in Foxborough at this point.
26:30Like, would that line be 17-and-1 if they played there?
26:33I do think New England wins, and I think their offense gets on track in this.
26:36I'm just worried about what I get from the Jets itself because the goal, again, is we're going to keep running Brady.
26:41They already told you, I have a healthy quarterback start or veterans that can play right now.
26:47You put one on IR because you just don't want any theatrics, and you still need somebody who's a professional
26:51who can actually run the practices and still be able to lean on, you know, you take it with a Tyrod Taylor.
26:56But make no mistake about it, they're hoping Brady Cook plays all four quarters, and he's bad, and they lose.
27:00But, hey, we're trying to be competitive to get a look at some players here.
27:02That's the way I think that game is actually going to play out.
27:05Other games of no real consequence other than New Orleans might be building for the future
27:10and have found they're certainly their rookie quarterback who can be their franchise guy in Shook.
27:14And then you take a Cam Ward.
27:15Playing better as the season has gone over here.
27:17These two teams should be competitive, but New Orleans, Joe, is a favorite on the road in a total of 39-and-a-half.
27:24It's hard to take rookies on the road.
27:26I get it.
27:27But when I look at these two teams, I think the right side is favorite here.
27:30Like, I do think New Orleans should be a road favorite here, Joe.
27:32They should be, but this is rare territory because they were only the fifth team since 2000
27:39to win actually three straight games straight up, and they've actually covered four straight games.
27:45But they have a winning percentage of 33% or less, Donnie.
27:48That's the first.
27:49We haven't had that in forever here in the NFL.
27:53It doesn't often happen, but it just goes to show you, streaking teams hitting their stride
27:58as bad as they were towards the end of the season.
28:01They're starting to believe here a little bit.
28:03They're starting to put something together for the future.
28:07There's just really—Tennessee has lost 11 straight games, both straight up and against the number,
28:13after a straight-up win.
28:15That's the longest active ATS losing streak off of a straight-up win in the NFL.
28:22Now, nothing about Tennessee screams that.
28:24Yes, I know it's the Saints, but nothing about this game screams Tennessee is going to start going on a roll.
28:30No, it doesn't.
28:31By the way, let's have a little bit of fun with that game we talked about, Joe,
28:33the Giants and the Vegas Raiders, who, again, maybe you don't want to pick a side in that game.
28:37Where would you go on your props for this one?
28:39Because you look at the passing props.
28:41You know, Geno Smith probably lost his best target in Brock Bowers.
28:43They sat him down and said, we don't need you playing anymore.
28:45You're banged up this year, and we don't want to win football games.
28:47He's at a 207-and-a-half.
28:49Jackson Dart is a 187-and-a-half.
28:51And last week, Jackson Dart didn't throw a pass in, like, the first quarter-and-a-half of that football game.
28:56If you're looking at props, like, how do you even – it feels to me, if I'm going to look at this and say,
29:02I want to somehow get Ashton Gentry involved, because they might just run the football 30 times and see what he has.
29:0770-and-a-half is his number.
29:09How do you play this game from a prop perspective, just to even have fun?
29:11To me, I think Geno, they're going to – Geno, they're going to drop back and throw the ball.
29:17They're just going to have him throw the ball all over the place.
29:19I would look to back Geno's over-passing props, because I do think they're just going to let him –
29:25they're going to let him throw the ball, throw all over the place.
29:28And I think he'll have some success in this game at home.
29:32I really do.
29:33Yeah, somebody's got to take – maybe the best kid, where you're just trying to find other players here
29:38and just throw them the football a couple times.
29:40Trey Tucker's their leading guy right now, 48-and-a-half.
29:42And then Michael Mayer, 32-and-a-half.
29:44Why?
29:45Because Brock Bowers is out.
29:46Somebody's got to catch some passes.
29:48We'll be previewing NFL action next, right here on the early line.
29:51Games that mean something, people.
29:53Sometimes you have to really sift through it.
29:55Now, Saturday's games, there's a lot of meaning there in the NFL.
29:57Sunday's games, a lot of those, some teams trying to actively not win
30:00and continue to sabotage their season, as we talked about the Vegas Raiders taking on the New York Giants.
30:05But Sunday night football, Joe, real good one.
30:07The Chicago Bears fighting still for that number one overall seed and, quite frankly,
30:11just to win their own division in the NFC North.
30:14San Francisco fighting for the number one seed and also trying to win their division in the NFC West.
30:20This line, Joe, opened up at three points.
30:22It still sits at just about every outlet as a three-point favorite towards San Francisco,
30:27a total up slightly from 51-and-a-half to 52-and-a-half at most outlets here.
30:32Bears, 49ers, keep in mind, not sure if George Kittle's going to play in this game or be 100%.
30:38Ricky Pearsall might not be going here, so a little bit banged up San Francisco.
30:42But no surprise, they've been banged up all season, Joe.
30:45Favorite to the 49ers.
30:46How are we looking at this game on Sunday night football?
30:49Well, a lot of this is going, I mean, listen, the Bears just beat the Packers, right?
30:54The comeback of the year, and that was, what, last Saturday.
30:57So they're going to have a little extended rest here.
31:00We just watched the 49ers on Monday, right, handle their business.
31:05So they're going to be on a little shorter rest here.
31:08But this game might not actually mean anything to Chicago, given the fact that if the Packers lose,
31:14if I'm correct here, Donnie, the Bears will go ahead and lock up the NFC North title to division ground.
31:21So this game might not mean anything to Chicago by the time we get to Sunday night.
31:27But I'll tell you this, it's going to mean something to the 49ers because they still have an opportunity
31:32to not only win the NFC West, Donnie, they have an opportunity at the number one overall seed here if Seattle stumbles.
31:39So there are some possibilities here for the 49ers.
31:43And call me crazy, but this looks like a different team since Brock Purdy's come back.
31:47In fact, 5-0 against the number.
31:50They've won every game since he came back from injury and replaced Mac Jones.
31:54They've won those games by double digits.
31:57He is a difference maker.
31:58Like him or hate him, he's a difference maker for this team.
32:01And he should have no problem.
32:03If the Bears are disinterested, they should have no problem running away with this game if it means nothing to Chicago.
32:09Boy, I think the toughest thing to handicap is what we're getting out of the players,
32:14what they believe, or how they're being coached during the week and what actually matters.
32:16Because we're human beings.
32:17Hey, this game doesn't mean as much.
32:19Well, maybe you don't go in there on a fumble and try to get that fumble.
32:22Maybe you don't go over the middle.
32:23Maybe you alligator arm a ball.
32:24Maybe if you're a quarterback, you slide instead of going for that first down.
32:27We're not saying that's going to happen, but you always want that clean slate.
32:30Like you always want to believe that you're getting the best out of a team.
32:32And imagine saying, you know what?
32:33I'm going to place my money on Chicago.
32:35Give me the three points.
32:36And then it's four and a half by the time you get the game day.
32:38That hurts.
32:39So you got to watch sometimes what's going to happen that Baltimore-Green Bay game,
32:42which maybe filters over or maybe just don't care.
32:45And Ben Johnson's like, hey, look, back in Detroit, games that didn't mean anything.
32:48I've watched those on set with the boys where they go all out in games they don't even need.
32:53Maybe that filters through.
32:54Philadelphia and Buffalo, Sunday, 425, Orchard Park.
32:58Now we take a look at some of the weather conditions here, Joe.
33:00Rain in the forecast, 42 degrees, light winds under 10 miles per hour,
33:05but also the question marks of what you're actually getting between these two teams.
33:10Buffalo's in the playoffs.
33:11Miami's in the playoffs at this point around now.
33:13You watch the New England Patriots.
33:14They have a one o'clock game.
33:15They win.
33:16They wrap some things out, Joe.
33:18One and a half points spread across the board as a favorite towards Buffalo,
33:21down from the opening number at three.
33:23It should be an awesome competitive game.
33:25But again, what's the actual motivation for both of these teams heading into this football game
33:30once we kick off?
33:33Yeah, and in a spot like this, Donnie, where it's not the end of the world for either of these teams
33:38if they lose.
33:39And listen, Buffalo at home is going to want to, you would think you'd give them the edge.
33:45But this year, Donnie, you know, some trends are just, if it ain't broke, why fix it?
33:50The Buffalo Bills are one in six against the number in the first half at home this year.
33:55They could not start any slower than what they do in these games.
34:00Now, Philadelphia hasn't exactly been great and a quick starter either,
34:04but you got to figure if Philadelphia is going to be in this game,
34:08they're likely going to have to do something here in the first half on the road to keep this game close.
34:14If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
34:16I'll take the points with Philadelphia early, and I'll lay it with the Bills in the second half
34:22because that, we all know, is how you make money backing the Bills.
34:26Eagles, really good defense as well.
34:28You know that you're going to get a running game there for the Buffalo Bills.
34:32But at the same time, you know who's coming back, Joe?
34:34Jalen Card, maybe the best overall player on the Eagles defense, set to go back.
34:37Lane Johnson, not expected to play this week, but expected to be back week 18.
34:41If they need that game or just sit it out to the playoffs, we'll be healthy.
34:44Some interesting things to watch.
34:46Seattle going on the road.
34:47They're favored by a touchdown to 7.5, depending on where you're shopping, Joe,
34:50against the Carolina Panthers, and a total of 42.5.
34:53It's not an end-all, be-all game for Carolina because if they lose this game
34:57and then they win next week, they can still win that division.
34:59But they could knock off Carolina, excuse me, knock off Seattle this game,
35:03and then you find Miami knocking off Tampa, and it doesn't matter.
35:06I think you'll get the best of it, and again, the public really going heavy on Carolina,
35:11and maybe rightfully so.
35:12Touchdown on the road where Seattle might be looking forward to next week
35:15and just get a win and get out of there.
35:16Interesting game, the handicap.
35:18Yeah, I mean, listen, in Carolina, that big upset win over Tampa last week,
35:24this has got letdown written all over it, given the fact that, oh, yeah,
35:29Tampa, you're playing them next week one way or the other.
35:32And Carolina's not exactly been great after a win, right?
35:37Two and five against the number, oh and four over this last season.
35:42So they have not been great in this particular spot.
35:46And ultimately, Donnie, if it gets into the second half and Tampa's up big,
35:49I mean, and Seattle's up big, they know their season's all about the next game,
35:54week 18 against Tampa anyway.
35:56So this game could get out of hand for Seattle quickly.
36:01And then running away with the game is what I mean.
36:05And how about this one?
36:05Running away with the public money here.
36:07The Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the Indianapolis Colts.
36:09The slot opened up at six, still sits at six and a half.
36:11But, again, eight out of every ten tickets coming in on Jacksonville.
36:15What do we see from Indianapolis?
36:16Now, I did see that, you know, Sauce Gardner practice limited on Thursday.
36:19I don't think he's going to come back for this game.
36:21Another interesting one, one of the better centers in football, Tyler Bordellini,
36:24he's actually still working through a concussion near Phillip Rivers in the back.
36:27Do we get points in this game?
36:28Is that too many points to lay on the road?
36:31Or is Indianapolis defense just so bad and you're getting a red-hot Jacksonville offense
36:35coming to town, Joe?
36:37The Jags have owned the Colts.
36:40I mean, this division rivalry has been one-sided.
36:43I mean, Indy is 3-17-1 against the number versus Jacksonville since 2015.
36:48I'll tell you what, though, Jacksonville, 12-3 to their team total over this year.
36:55It's the best mark in the NFL.
36:57If it ain't broke, Donnie, why fix it?
36:59Give me the Jags team total up and over.
37:02I mean, they've been slinging it around.
37:04Duval, again, who cares if your defense is down?
37:06You can get after that Indianapolis defense.
37:07We'll find that this weekend.
37:09See who wins that game.
37:11Let's close it down inside.
37:13Right back out of here on the early line.
37:15Closing the show down on style on a football Friday.
37:17Hopefully, you had a wonderful Christmas.
37:19You're enjoying your Friday morning.
37:21And off you go into football Saturday and Sunday.
37:23And also, some NBA action.
37:26It is fantastic.
37:27More teams play tonight.
37:28And hint, hint, coming up in just a few moments,
37:29our bye-bye-bye segment has two NBA games included there.
37:33But this is the time of the show, Joe.
37:34We like to reach out to the public and see what's on their mind.
37:37Here's our fade to public poll.
37:38Fade to public poll time here post-Christmas Day.
37:50You saw yesterday on Christmas Day, Travis Kelsey.
37:53Here's the reason why I bet Travis Kelsey is like, you know what?
37:55It's probably going to be his last home game here.
37:56Be emotional.
37:57Got over that by a half of a yard.
37:59And by the way, it shouldn't even have been that close.
38:01Needed like three catches on the final drive to get that by a half of a yard.
38:04But the question we asked is, hey, didn't you guys take Travis Kelsey's prop last night?
38:08No, it's will Travis Kelsey, excuse me, will this be Travis Kelsey's last season in the NFL?
38:15Yes.
38:16Astoundingly high, Joe.
38:18You see the graphic at 84%.
38:19Live, it's still hovering at 82%.
38:22No, sits around 16.9% and 1.4% live.
38:26This is a trick question.
38:28No doubt in my mind, Travis Kelsey has played his last game at Arrowhead, Joe.
38:32Yeah, I mean, listen, he's got a whole lot of other things ahead of him here.
38:38And, you know, it would have been one thing if they were going to the playoffs and Mahomes was healthy.
38:44We might have a different conversation here, but that's not the case.
38:48And, you know, all good things got to eventually come to an end.
38:51All good dynasties do.
38:53And if he's smart, he sees the writing on the wall.
38:56He doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that's going to hang on for as long as he can.
39:00And not to mention he's got Taylor Swift and wedding bells apparently in his future.
39:05So, yeah, I think that's all she wrote here for Travis Kelsey.
39:09So he's going to hang on for what?
39:11Dude has multiple Super Bowl championships here.
39:13It's going to go down as, if not the best tight end in NFL history.
39:17He is going to the Hall of Fame.
39:19He is going to marry Taylor Swift, who is a billionaire in her own right,
39:22and live the rest of his life making hundreds of millions of dollars on podcast here.
39:27He steps away at the perfect time.
39:29The Chiefs aren't ascending.
39:30The Chiefs aren't trying to win their fourth straight Super Bowl championship
39:33and just going to hang on until the wheels fall off.
39:35The wheels fell off, and so did they fall off on the Kansas City Chiefs.
39:39We'll find out, but I would be very surprised, along with the public here,
39:42of around 80% that this would be his last season in the NFL.
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