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00:00Again, I'm not here with a tin cup for a Hal Steinbrenner and his family.
00:04You want to make a case he should sell the team?
00:06Because now if you're going to own a team, you need to be Guggenheim, Roger, Steve Cohen, Rich.
00:12I got it.
00:13But even within that, I don't think the Yankees are not getting to the Canyon of Heroes
00:17because of the last contract they didn't sign.
00:22Hello and welcome to the Pinstripe Post.
00:23My name is Ryan Sampson, the host and producer of the show.
00:26That's the star of the show, Joel Sherman.
00:27Today is Monday, December 8th.
00:29The official winter meetings have started.
00:31And Joel Sherman is down there in Orlando there reporting from the winter meetings.
00:35And we're excited today to get to talk to him after a little bit of a break
00:39and just get the latest on what the heck's going on with the New York Yankees here on today's show.
00:43But before we get to any of that, Joel Sherman, how are you today, sir?
00:47I'm in the happiest place on earth.
00:49It's Disney World here, right?
00:51Orlando, I bet you I don't step outside this biosphere before I leave on Thursday.
00:56So they might as well be in Newark for all that's going to happen.
01:02And also, you know, the winter meetings used to be very much the convention of our business.
01:07You saw a lot of people.
01:09And between cell phones where executives don't want to be seen, you know,
01:14taped and potentially whatever, they hide.
01:17It's hard to see people.
01:18And the fact that everyone has learned how to drag the winter out into January, February, even March sometimes.
01:27You know, I'm hoping for some action here.
01:30Yeah.
01:31But I'm not positive we're going to get the drop the brick on a gas pedal and go.
01:37But if there's a place to wish and hope, I guess it's Disney World.
01:41So we'll wish and hope that we get some action here while being somewhat pessimistic about it.
01:47No, I think you're being, again, very realistic.
01:49And I'm going to use that term a lot today because your column yesterday on Post Sports Plus,
01:54which Yankees fans or MLB fans, if you haven't read yet, go read it.
01:58Joel and subscribe to the Post Sports Plus because Joel obviously has a ton of great info there.
02:02And the big thing to talk about was Hal Steinbrenner.
02:05And we saw his comments a couple weeks ago when he talked to reporters for the first time about payroll,
02:11about the revenue.
02:13And, you know, Yankees fans take it off.
02:15And it just created a flurry of content and news and whatnot.
02:20But really all we got, Joel, was a point of a realistic point where the owner of the New York Yankees is saying to Yankees fans,
02:28look, we spend a lot of money, but there needs to be a realism here about I cannot spend what a Steve Cohen
02:37or the people at the Dodgers spend every year because I don't have that influx of cash.
02:43So I just wanted to start there with your thoughts on what Hal was saying
02:47and what really is to be expected from the Yankees in terms of payroll this offseason.
02:53Yeah, well, there's a lot there, Ryan, and thank you for mentioning the column and telling people to go to it
02:59because obviously that will probably have a lot more nuance than I'll be able to bring here.
03:04But, you know, the one thing that gets invoked a lot is, oh, this is what George would have done.
03:11But George didn't compete with Steve Cohen.
03:14He competed with the Wilpons, who just didn't even try.
03:17Like the Wilpons pretty much had a rule not to even go after free agents.
03:20The Yankees might because they were like, oh, we're not going to win anyway.
03:25Well, clearly that's not Steve Cohen's pocket or mindset.
03:28He's the I want the piece of art.
03:29I'll go get it kind of guy.
03:31And prior to the Guggenheim's, you know, partners owning the Dodgers,
03:36they were owned by Frank McCourt, who was literally in bankruptcy.
03:39He was using the Dodgers as his ATM to pay for everything else in his life.
03:43So the Dodgers weren't a factor.
03:47So if the Yankees wanted the player, aside from a period there where the Red Sox bulked up and said, no, we'll compete with you also, that was it.
03:57The Yankees essentially got the players they want.
04:00So I think when people invoke George, he played in a different forum than his son is playing in.
04:08His son is supporting.
04:10Look, I go through this.
04:11We've done it on this thing.
04:13It's in the column.
04:14I'll try to do it as quick as possible.
04:16Garrett Cole, the moment he signed, it's the most expensive pitching deal in history.
04:21At the moment they trade for Giancarlo Stanton, I believe until Raphael Devers was acquired.
04:26It's the most money ever moved in a trade.
04:28Ten years, $270 million.
04:30Just as A-Rod's 10-year contract was ending and they said, we'll never do a 10-year contract again.
04:34They took on 10 years of Giancarlo Stanton at $270 million.
04:38Carlos Rodan, 11th highest free agent pitching contract of all time.
04:45Max Freed, number one for starting pitcher.
04:48Aaron Judge, per annum, the large, at this time it was signed, per annum, largest ever for a position player.
04:54Like, at some point it's always just going to be, well, you got to get Kyle Tucker.
04:57And it's like, okay, they got Kyle Tucker.
04:58Well, now you got to go get Tarek Skubel next season.
05:00And the answer is always going to be the next guy.
05:03And quite frankly, the Yankees got eliminated by the Blue Jays for a variety of reasons.
05:08The biggest is, like, Max Freed, Carlos Rodan, and Giancarlo Stanton, three of the highest paid players, played poorly in that series.
05:16And would one more expensive guy have solved everything?
05:19I'm not here to save Hal Steinbrenner money.
05:22I'd just as soon cover stars.
05:23Keep them coming.
05:25You want to make an argument that the Yankees should be sold to somebody who could compete with Koen and Guggenheim at that level.
05:32And by the way, Rodgers Communication, which owns the Blue Jays, which probably has more money than both Guggenheim and Koen, and we see the Blue Jays now are off and running, and they might be the top salary in the AL East.
05:46I don't think the Yankees have lost the last few years in the postseason because they didn't do the one more thing.
05:53And I would argue, like, look, they offered over a billion dollars to Yamamoto and Soto.
05:58Yamamoto goes to the Dodgers because Los Angeles is way closer to Japan.
06:04The games are on in the morning there.
06:07There were already Otani there.
06:09He wanted to do that.
06:11Like, even Steve Cohen, who offered Yamamoto more, was willing to offer more, can't take the Pacific Ocean and put it in the Atlantic Ocean, right?
06:20And then the Yankees did offer $750 million to Soto, and Steve Cohen went to whatever the number was, Steve Cohen was going to go higher.
06:29And so at some point, it's a billion dollars offered, and I think the best thing that happened to the current state of the Yankees is they lost out on Soto because it did give them the ability to be more maneuverable.
06:43And I thought they were a better team last year than the team that actually went to the World Series.
06:47I thought it was a more well-rounded team, and they lost earlier in the playoffs.
06:51But I just – I think Hal, as opposed to many owners, talks publicly a few times a year, and most guys don't do that.
07:05And I give them some credit for doing it, and I give them some credit for transparency to say, ideally, this is where I'd like to be with payroll.
07:14You know what?
07:15He hasn't been there.
07:16He's been over $300 million these last few years.
07:19Should it be – and let's not forget, $315 million is over $60 million in tax.
07:26So it's kind of edging up towards $400 million commitment for just the payroll.
07:32You could probably double that for operations and whatever else they do to do everything they do because it's a New York-style team.
07:39Again, I'm not here with a tin cup for a Hal Steinbrenner and his family.
07:42You want to make a case he should sell the team because now if you're going to own a team,
07:47you need to be Guggenheim, Rodgers, Steve Cohen, Rich, I got it.
07:51But even within that, I don't think the Yankees are not getting to the Canyon of Heroes because of the last contract they didn't sign.
07:59And that my suspicion is this offseason he'll talk about $300 million, and they'll still be up at $310 million or in that area.
08:08And they'll put a team on the field because their track record is to put a team on the field good enough to at least win 90-plus games and get to the playoffs.
08:16Will they again – I mean, one of these years they're not going to be above 500.
08:20They're going to – whatever.
08:21However, the Mets last year got Soto.
08:25They bulked up.
08:26They were coming off the LCS.
08:28Hey, they finally got it right.
08:30Owner, GM, manager, they're the hot team in New York.
08:34Watch out, Yankees.
08:35Twelve months later, we're like, who wants to take the Met money?
08:38So, like, be careful.
08:40Like, the Yankees are pretty consistently good, and they haven't gotten the chip for a long time.
08:46And the lack of the chip is angering people.
08:50My last thing, though, about the chip, because I was thinking about this watching an NFL game recently.
08:56Fans are like, hey, if the Yankees just won another championship, I'd get off their back.
09:02No, you won't.
09:03I watched the Eagles get booed off the field the other day.
09:06Booed off the field.
09:07They won their Super Bowl 11 months ago.
09:10Right?
09:11Like, it's always going to be about the season in front of you,
09:14and no one's going to give a shit about last season.
09:17But one of these years, the Yankees are going to have to get the chip to at least get the chip.
09:22But, Ryan, I continue to believe that it has not been a strictly financial decision
09:28that has kept them from getting the chip, and that they do spend plenty of money.
09:35Is there a realistic part to this, while you're describing everything that's so true
09:40about how the Yankees have approached recent offseason signings?
09:44Is there a long-term play here from Hal?
09:47And I think you highlighted it a little bit with there's potential for the CBA
09:51that obviously looks like it's going to expire and there could be a lockout,
09:54that there will be now financial restrictions on MLB teams on how much they can spend,
09:59and is Hal playing the long game there?
10:02Yeah, I don't think so.
10:03Because whatever rules come in, and I'll believe that there's a salary cap in Major League Baseball
10:11when there's a salary cap in Major League Baseball.
10:13I feel like we'd miss so much time, and it would be such a pyrrhic victory
10:17because we'd destroy so much to do it.
10:20But maybe we'll get it.
10:22Let's play the game you and me, Ryan, here.
10:25There is a salary cap.
10:27It's not going to be a year one thing.
10:28There's going to have to be some grandfathering of it in,
10:31because take the Yankees out of it.
10:32The Dodgers are all for $400 million.
10:35Like, if suddenly you can't be over, say, $250 million,
10:38how would the Dodgers get there in a year?
10:40So I do think there's grandfathering.
10:43I think one of the things that Hal could believe,
10:46even if he wanted to do another big contract,
10:49is after this season, Grisham, LeMay, you come off the books.
10:53After the next season, Stanton comes after the books.
10:55After that season, Freed Rodin come off the books.
10:58So there begins to be—
11:00Cole and Rodin, right?
11:00Cole and Rodin, not Freed, right?
11:01Cole and Rodin.
11:01Why is it Freed?
11:02Yeah, yeah.
11:02So at that point, Freed and Judge are the only guys
11:05who you're kind of extended with for a long while.
11:09And now, but the reality is, you're the Yankees,
11:13and you're always going to be like,
11:14add the next guy who's going to be part of it.
11:16But they could do that.
11:17To me, they could do that if they want to.
11:20The question is, does Hal want to?
11:23And do they actually believe they need to?
11:25Or do they believe that there's the structure
11:28of a very, very strong team here that needs augmenting and not going to the top of the market?
11:35I think that's a good way to put it.
11:38And the big question that remains here for this Yankees offseason to start is,
11:44what do they do with Cody Bellinger?
11:45Because I think there is a huge variance of what does he get long term?
11:51Are there a lot of other teams in the bidding for Cody Bellinger?
11:54Are the Yankees just bidding against themselves at a certain point?
11:57But also, at the same time, what's the cost for a guy who's going to be 30?
12:02And I don't know, Joel.
12:04I get concerned when you start getting into the five, six, seven-year deals
12:08for a guy who's going to be 30 years old and has dealt with back injuries before.
12:12Like, we've seen him miss games this year with nursing a back injury.
12:16And I know he has the position versatility,
12:18but there becomes a certain point in time where his athleticism will decline.
12:22It just happens when you hit your 30s.
12:24Like, you're not the same athlete as you were in your 20s.
12:28I get concerned that the Yankees are going to tie themselves up
12:31into another DJ LeMay-like contract with a Cody Bellinger.
12:34Could you potentially see them trying to negotiate less years
12:38with more AAV for a Cody Bellinger return?
12:42Yeah, you're asking all the right questions, I think, Ryan.
12:45And yet, I feel like even if you're a Yankee fan who feels that way, as you are,
12:51the day he signs for six years from one place else, the feeling will be,
12:56ah, they blew it, right?
12:58Like, if he does it.
12:59Maybe not for you, but like that generalized, ah, hell again.
13:03I think there's a very strong market for Cody Bellinger.
13:07He's a very talented player.
13:09But there is, and I wrote about this over the weekend,
13:12there is question about what that means.
13:16I think you know this because in shows at this time last year,
13:21I was screaming, the Yankees got to go get Cody Bellinger in a trade.
13:25I loved Cody Bellinger.
13:26Then I watched him play for a year, and I like it even more.
13:30Like, I think he has got five tools,
13:33and I think that the most important thing that comes with five tools
13:36is knowing how to use them because you have a high baseball IQ,
13:39pretty good motor, get on the field.
13:41Like, he was everything you want, and in a way, if he goes,
13:47you've now replicated Soto, right?
13:49You traded for Soto, had him for a year, had great results, let him go.
13:53You had Bellinger you traded for.
13:55Are you going to let him walk out, maybe also to the Mets?
13:58For all we know, if they don't really solve center field down to our first base,
14:03he's a guy who could go there, which would be incredible.
14:06Again, considering what used to be the Wilponian way of doing things
14:11is that that guy would walk out the door.
14:13The question on Bellinger that comes up over and over and over again, Ryan,
14:18is about volatility of result.
14:21Like, if you go to his war, there's highs and lows and highs and lows,
14:27and last year was a high again.
14:28And that volatility, I went and I wrote about this, if you saw it,
14:35is if you try to find somebody like that, it's a lot like Jacoby Ellsbury,
14:39who also was a free agent after age 29.
14:42Go look at Jacoby Ellsbury.
14:44There's six war.
14:45There's two war.
14:46There's five-something war.
14:48There's one-something war.
14:49And it was bounce, bounce, strong year.
14:52The Yankees signed him for seven at 153, and as we know, that was a disaster.
14:55Now, I don't think Cody Bellinger – I think Cody Bellinger loves baseball.
14:59I didn't think Jacoby Ellsbury loved baseball,
15:02and I would not give long-term money to somebody who doesn't burn to play.
15:06That's a mistake, and I think he burns to play.
15:08It's one of the questions I wonder about Kyle Tucker.
15:10Does Kyle Tucker burn to play?
15:12I know Cody Bellinger burns to play.
15:15I think there's some questions about the motor and the desires on somebody like Tucker
15:20that have been expressed to me by organizations.
15:23But Bellinger's also played in the three largest markets you can play in,
15:29Chicago at Los Angeles and New York.
15:30We know that's not going to bother him.
15:32He's excelled in all three places.
15:34I love the player.
15:36I would stretch somewhat for him.
15:39But does stretch mean five at 110, or does stretch mean seven at 210?
15:47Like, that's a $100 million delta.
15:49And you could tell me, like, I just did this on one of the videos we did, Ryan, for the post.
15:57One of the things that an executive said to me recently, and it's been talked about before with me,
16:02as I love the saying, is you never know who finishes second for a player.
16:06Like, it doesn't matter if everyone offers five at 110.
16:10That's the generally accepted number for Cody Bellinger.
16:12If someone offers seven at 210, that's what wins.
16:16And it doesn't matter that the, well, the Yankees kind of got it right in the sense that everyone was in this place,
16:23and one team decided we have to have them, or we don't really, we don't know how to read the market.
16:29Like, most people I talk to think Pete Alonso will be kept to three or four years.
16:33If some team out there says, I need Pete Alonso, and gives him six years, then that, we'll never know who finished second.
16:41Right.
16:41That will be the only thing that matters.
16:43They're both Scott Boris clients.
16:45Boris has already gotten more first, like Dylan Cease, than I saw coming.
16:49Even with deferrals, it was a larger deal than I saw.
16:53There's, and there's been a lot of times over the years where that, like, Scott knows how to play the market, and it only takes one.
17:00It only takes one.
17:02It doesn't matter what consensus is.
17:04What matters is, is there a team out there that looks at Cody Bellinger and says, I don't see fluctuation.
17:10I see a guy who's gotten married, who's matured, who, since he's gone to Chicago, has been a really exceptional player again.
17:19Maybe not MVP 2019 Dodger Cody Bellinger, but a really good player.
17:24I think that.
17:25And I would extend a little for it, but I understand the trepidation in the industry, the LeMayu trepidation in the industry about, like, age and athleticism and fluctuating previous stuff.
17:42He does have a somewhat complicated swing.
17:45So, I get it.
17:47I happen to really appreciate this player.
17:51Right, you're willing to look past those, let's say, volatility and what could be uncertain, but for the player you believe in, like, hey, I believe in his, I believe in what he, his process is, what his results are currently.
18:05Like, I believe that player can still be valuable for you.
18:09So, I would think of it like this, Ryan, what do I think his floor is for the next five years?
18:16I think his floor is, I don't think he's that guy who the Dodgers decided to non-tender.
18:22I think that was a different guy emotionally.
18:24I think it was a different guy physically.
18:26I think this player has got it going on now in his life and in how he approaches baseball.
18:32He went to a hitting factory last year that really seemed to help him, a place in Atlanta.
18:38He seems much more stable, married, child, et cetera, off the field.
18:43So, I think the floor is, say, like a two-win player, which is, if you think a win is worth, like, $8 to $10 million, it should be $16 to $20 a year.
18:57And I think he's probably got a chance in the next five years to have multiple four- or five-win seasons.
19:04So, if the number is in the 20-25 area for five or six years, I think that's a legit deal for the guy.
19:14I do.
19:16But I understand the trepidation.
19:19And the one breadcrumb, and there's not many that are dropped these days around here, is Brian Cashman did mention that the team has gotten very left-handed.
19:29I was going to follow up with this.
19:30So, does the Trent Grisham qualifying offer, $22 million, does that make the Yankees, like, say, you know what, Bellinger, we love you.
19:39But, like, we are extremely left-handed now with that Trent Grisham is coming back on a one-year deal.
19:43And we do have Dominguez, who's a switch-hitting outfielder, but Judge is the righty.
19:48It's McMahon, it's Jazz, it's Ben Rice, Austin Wells.
19:52Like, it's a lot of left-handed hitters in this lineup.
19:55I know he acknowledged he needs to get balance.
19:58Does Bellinger provide balance, even though he does hit left-on-left, which is a key quality I think you really, really like?
20:04Again, like, everything you could like about a baseball player Cody Bellinger showed last year.
20:07Right.
20:08Like, not afraid of a big moment, hit left-on-left.
20:11You know, he was really good.
20:13Again, I would extend a little for him.
20:15I don't think it was just the walkier magic thing.
20:19But, hypothetically, if you were thinking, what does Cody Bellinger look like?
20:23It probably looks a lot like Stephen Kwan.
20:25Like, is that the kind of player you could trade for in this marketplace?
20:30And he suddenly is such an obvious lead-off hitter.
20:34He's arguably even a better left-field defender than Bellinger.
20:38And Bellinger was the best the Yankees have had by a lot since Brett Gardner.
20:42Yeah.
20:42So, like, you get those two qualities.
20:45You lose some power.
20:47The cost in dollars, though, you're going to have to give up real stuff if you're going to get Kwan.
20:54But, like, that kind of player, if that's the next step down to it.
21:00But he's left-handed also.
21:01He's also left-handed, which is why I find it curious.
21:03So, are they telling us that it's a righty bat?
21:07And if you start playing that game and you start playing, hey, they'd like to go in the season, they've been, for luxury tax purposes, I think, between, like, 315 and 320 the last two seasons.
21:22Which means you want to go into the season projected at about 310, so in July you could get to 315 with some more trades.
21:31It would mean they have, as of this moment, let's say they were willing to go to 310.
21:40It's about 25 to 30 million, maybe, to spend still.
21:46Now, could they trade Luis Gil?
21:48Maybe.
21:49Could they trade Jazz?
21:51Me.
21:51Maybe.
21:52Could they trade Camilo Duvall?
21:54Maybe.
21:54Those are all guys who make some money.
21:56And they could, therefore, but the moment you trade one of those guys, like you trade Jazz, you need a second base.
22:01Yeah, you need a second base.
22:02You know, you trade Gil at a point where you don't know who your April rotation is already with Rodon and Cole Down, you have what?
22:09If you trade Duvall, you're still going to need more guys.
22:12You already need more guys to pitch the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings in front of Bednar.
22:17So, if you got 30 to spend, it would be hard to do 25 on Bellinger.
22:23And then also feel like we're going to get relievers.
22:27So, are they telling us, and again, I'm just making up names here.
22:30I just want to always be clear that, like, the Yankees are not handing out pieces of paper.
22:34These are things.
22:35But, like, are they like, hey, can we sign back Ahmad Rosario to help us with a righty bat in the infield?
22:42Go look at his track record.
22:43He's going to hit lefties almost as well as anyone in the sport who's not, like, judge, et cetera.
22:49He's in that next tier down.
22:50And Lane Thomas kind of player.
22:54None of it will cost you a lot.
22:56They're both.
22:57Now, Lane Thomas was hurt last year, and he could be shot.
23:00He's a player I like a lot, so I bring it up.
23:03But based on last year, he was dealing with plantar fasciitis, and he was a bad baseball player last year.
23:08But if you think that's a correctable thing, and there's still a lot there, you're like, hey, can we do Rosario and, like, Lane Thomas?
23:16I'm just using two names, feel like two extra right-hand bats.
23:21And because we believe, we believe, we have Aaron Judge, we have Giancarlo Stanton, we have Jazz Chisholm, we have Austin Wells, who we think will hit 25 points.
23:33We have Ben Rice, who we think might be a version of Kyle Schwarber-Light, who's about to play first base.
23:38We don't need necessarily, like, look at the Blue Jay model that actually beat them in both the AL East and in the playoffs last year.
23:46It was a lot of Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, really good players who were doing it around one real superstar in Guerrero.
23:57So, like, can you make the group long and talented in that way as a positional group?
24:05I think that is possible and that they're just seeing on Bellinger.
24:13I think the Yankees are in wait and see and say, hey, if it is 5 at 110, yes.
24:19But if it's closer to 7 at 210, no, and now we're going to plan B, which is maybe Quan or a couple of really good supplementary righty bats around what are already entrenched stars.
24:33I would think that's, again, I'm not in their room.
24:36I don't see their dry board, but I've covered the team a long time.
24:40And I know that this group has got a plan A and a B and a C and a D, and then it's like, okay, now we haven't spent a lot of money on two position players.
24:53Who's the really good reliever?
24:56Like, can we take something and go trade?
25:00We could trade a little more.
25:01Trade with Kansas City for Carlos Estevez, who makes like $12 million.
25:04Like, now we could do that because we're – and some place in plan G or H or I are all kinds of stuff.
25:13I do think plan A is Cody Bellinger, but at their price.
25:16At their price, but then it also, like you said, still would limit them just because of that 310, 315 mark, right?
25:23Again, the irony, if I'm using the word right here, is it would be like if they had signed Soto last year.
25:30Yeah.
25:30Because that's why I said they would have been worse off with Soto.
25:33Soto's a Hall of Famer.
25:34He's a great player.
25:36But with Soto, they would have then had to go cheap for a starting pitcher, cheap for – and all the other stuff.
25:43And how the Yankees were constructed last year, just the reality is they were better off with Max Freed than Juan Soto.
25:50Yeah.
25:51Because Cole gets hurt.
25:52Yeah.
25:52Right?
25:53Like, and they desperately needed that thing.
25:55And so without Soto, they were able to do a lot of things.
25:59I think with Bellinger, they're going to be limited in what else they do.
26:07Unless they say Bellinger gives us another lefty bat, Chisholm is going to make about, say, $10 to $11 million in arbitration.
26:15Now we could take Chisholm, trade him, get a little less left-handed, and use him to answer some other questions, starting pitcher, reliever, whatever.
26:28Because, to me, if you're not going to sign Chisholm long-term, and he's a free agent after the next season, after the 26 season, you have to at least entertain the idea of what would it look like.
26:41Without Bellinger, it's harder to trade Chisholm.
26:44Yeah.
26:45Because then you're starting to bleed multiple lefty bats.
26:48It's fascinating.
26:49And ultimately, the Yankees should be heavily left-handed because of where they play.
26:53Because of where they play, which is why I thought it was fascinating that Cashman did get that little breadcrumb last night of how incredibly left-handed they are.
27:01Real quick on the Grisham thing.
27:03Were the Yankees people surprised that he accepted the qualifying offer?
27:05Because this all feels like, Joel, maybe I'm crazy.
27:09This all feels like he accepted the qualifying offer at $20-plus million.
27:14And it's like, that just locked them Yankees in for $20-plus million to Trent Grisham.
27:18And it's like, I don't know if he's going to repeat that season.
27:20Is he going to be batting leadoff for us?
27:22And you're talking about a player who we don't love, athletically-wise, playing center field.
27:28We know he plays it well, but there's also the peripheral of laziness sometimes or dogging it.
27:33And you're like, is he going to repeat that?
27:35Is he going to be 2024 Trent Grisham?
27:38Or is he going to be 2025 Trent Grisham?
27:40So that's where, like, are they surprised that he accepted the qualifying offer?
27:43Because it does affect what their plans have been for this offseason.
27:47Well, you know, it's not a player I love from doing the shows with me.
27:53And to your point about some stuff is, this is a guy, he'd hit, what, like 34, 35 homers?
27:58I think he hit nine doubles, right?
28:00And that isn't just because the defense played deep.
28:03It's because he turned a lot of doubles into singles with the way he plays the game.
28:07There were more doubles there to be had.
28:10But I will say, the Yankees had their eyes wide open.
28:17They went into this thinking it was a 50-50 proposition if he would take it or not.
28:21So they were not, this narrative that they were caught off guard.
28:26I mean, there was real, like, Grisham had to think, I'm going to go out into this marketplace.
28:33If I kill it, is that three at 45?
28:38If I don't kill it, is that two at 35?
28:41Like, you know, this is a short 22.
28:44I don't know what the rules are for next offseason.
28:49If I go and kill it again, I'm going to beat in total whatever it is.
28:54He actually is liked in the clubhouse and liked being a Yankee.
29:00And on a one-year contract, again, if you're thinking a war is between eight and ten, one war is between eight and ten million, then even in a bad year, he's going to essentially be about a two-war player.
29:14So, like, it is, he is a, like, on the low end of war, it's still, I'm qualifying it at eight million, he's still a 16 million-ish dollar player, and he could be a free agent.
29:27And it's always cost more to have a guy for one year who's talented than to have him for multi-years, where you then spread out to make the lower annual value.
29:36Because, like, we're giving you years, so the value each year is going to go down a little bit.
29:41And it's not in a, I don't like, love the player, but that is a, like, on a one-year deal, it's not that far off of what he should get.
29:51As, again, not to the eye, and not to me, but as, like, a war thing, he wasn't that far off of Bellinger last year.
30:00I think there's a lot of, like, again, not to the eye, but the numbers might suggest that he's a better, much better center fielder than Bellinger.
30:11So, like, he's a real center fielder.
30:13The Yankees believe in the underlying stuff to suggest, like, he swung at strikes at such a higher percentage, he hit it hard, he knows what a ball and a strike are, that he, that is going to translate again.
30:27I think he's a bigger risk than Bellinger, but it's only a one-year risk.
30:31You're done with it.
30:33He also, with his permission, could be traded between, could be traded, and as of June 15th, they could trade him without his permission.
30:40So, like, they might not even be married to the guy.
30:44Like, if they re-sign Bellinger, can they go to Grisham and say, hey, man, we are going to have four outfielders again because we're not putting Dominguez in the minor leagues.
30:53We can trade you to Team X.
30:54You're going to go into free agency.
30:56Do you want to get 500 plate appearances?
30:58If you say yes to a trade, we can get you to Team X.
31:01You're going to be their 500 to 600 plate appearance center fielder.
31:06Do you want that?
31:06And so, I think the Yankees played arbitrage.
31:12You're like, what's the value of the player?
31:15On the day they give him the qualifying offer, they can't know if they're signing Bellinger or not.
31:19Right.
31:19So, if they don't qualify Grisham, think about the level of desperation they have right now on Bellinger.
31:26Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
31:27Like, they would have, but they would also have more room financially to play with, though, is what I'm saying.
31:31So, it goes into –
32:01Have you ever seen Ime lift his arm?
32:02We haven't.
32:03I haven't.
32:04But also the same –
32:05I mean, like, we don't know that.
32:07We don't –
32:08It's all projectable.
32:10Correct.
32:11And we don't –
32:13But it goes to the larger point about the starting rotation and the concerns that I have.
32:17Ime is the backup quarterback.
32:18We haven't seen him, so we're going to –
32:20That's right.
32:21That's right.
32:21And it's a period of time right now where obviously Japanese players, especially on the Dodgers, are so special that it feels there's a fervor for it.
32:31Right?
32:32And I think Yankee fans are frustrated.
32:34Hey, there was that time, Matsui, Arabu, Tanaka, where they dominated the market.
32:40Again, I would suggest it was a time where the Dodgers were not owned by the Guggenheims.
32:46Right?
32:46The Mets were not owned by Steve Cohn.
32:50You know, it's a different forum.
32:53And I do think Japanese players will gravitate to the West Coast, closer to home, better start times for their family back home to watch games, etc.
33:03So, the Dodgers have a huge advantage.
33:06And good for them.
33:06They press the advantage.
33:08And Otani changes everything.
33:10They're so big in Japan because Otani's so big.
33:14But it is tougher to get in the market.
33:15But I don't think you should get in a market just to do that.
33:19Like, it's the right player.
33:20I remember two years ago when Murakami was first talked about.
33:26I'm telling you, if we did our show then, it would be like, hey, whenever that guy becomes a free agent, the Yankees better go get that guy.
33:32Now, do you even hear his name?
33:33No.
33:35Like, it's funny.
33:35It's like, I talk to a lot of people.
33:39And there are a lot of people, like, worried about that guy's, like, strikeout numbers, not hitting velocity in Japan where it's not like now.
33:45And then there's people, like, he's a great worker.
33:48He has athletic skills, whatever.
33:49He's going to learn how to hit here.
33:51He's going to be a real difference maker.
33:53Nevertheless, two years ago, if I would have told you Yankees weren't even going to think about it, be like, oh, that's a house cheap.
33:58Why isn't he in Japan?
33:59Whatever.
33:59And so, it's just the changing perception of players we don't even see play.
34:04We have differing opinions on those we just watched play 162 games.
34:08And then we're going to talk about the guys we haven't even seen.
34:11You know, it's like, oh, you know, look.
34:14He's the next hot thing.
34:15He's the next hot thing.
34:16That's what it is.
34:16Somebody said to me the other day, a Yankee fan like yourself said to me, you know, the Yankees should do everything they can to get schoolable, but they shouldn't trade Cam Schlittler.
34:28And I looked at him and I went, what?
34:30That's crazy.
34:30And he goes, I go, I go, 12 months ago, you didn't even know who Cam Schlittler was.
34:35Today, the best – if you're telling me that, you know, the Yankees traded Michael King with two years left for Soto.
34:42You're positive this guy's going to be better even than Michael King who's really, really good?
34:46Maybe.
34:46Maybe he's a young ace.
34:47Maybe he's the next Cole.
34:48But, like, 12 months ago, you didn't know who the hell Cam Schlittler was.
34:53Today, like, if there was an alien invasion and they said, we're going to blow up the planet if you don't beat us at baseball, the guy the human race would start against the aliens is Tariq Scooble.
35:06Right?
35:06Like, to save humanity.
35:08And you're not trading Cam Schlittler for him.
35:10That's crazy.
35:10I would trade him in a heartbeat for Tariq Scooble.
35:12Come on, man.
35:13It's like, oh, you can't trade George Lombard.
35:15I'm like, you can't –
35:17You can.
35:18Do you feel – this is how you felt about Anthony Volpe until you saw him play baseball.
35:23Well, the Yankees needed a shortstop, too.
35:25They needed a shortstop.
35:26I mean, look –
35:27But you know what I mean?
35:28It's like I'm always worried about when people talk about players they haven't seen play because we're going to have such differing opinions on the ones we have seen play.
35:36Correct.
35:36Correct.
35:36And so, like, Imei might be terrific, Ryan, or, you know, he might be Kea Gower, too, for all we know.
35:44So, do you think there's actual interest in the Yankees for a player like Emei?
35:47I think that that's not – I don't – the Yankees have three very, very expensive starting pitching contracts in Rodon, Freed, and Cole.
35:59I would be surprised if there was a fourth in the offseason before Scooble becomes a free agent.
36:07That makes sense.
36:08Because then the question would be –
36:10On an unknown.
36:11On an unknown.
36:12On an unknown.
36:12Unknown quantity who I – again, there are people who like him a great deal, who I respect, who I talk to, and there are people who are like – I think there's a little bit of a fervor because of what happened with the Dodgers.
36:25He's good but not that.
36:27Yeah.
36:27And so, people talk more about him being a number three, and there's probably – like, if you're telling me you're going to take risk on number three, I would just try to bring Michael King back home.
36:40Well, that –
36:41Because it's going to be less years or something like that.
36:44Yeah.
36:44It's going to cost you less, too.
36:45And, again, Michael King's a pitcher and a person I like a great deal, but I don't think the Yankees are going to spend a lot – I think they might get another starter.
36:59I think the Yankees – and I think this is a mistake.
37:03I think the Yankees look at it that their rotation at some point is going to become a great strength next year when they get Rodon and Cole back.
37:12Yeah, I read into the Cashman comments last night, too, about that, too.
37:14I don't – I don't believe you ever get the starting rotation you believe you're going to get.
37:22Like, there's never, like, that full moment where all five guys are standing and going well for a sustained period of time.
37:28It's too fragile.
37:30It's too whatever.
37:31Now, having said that, Ryan, you know on this webcast a lot last year, the rotation was always the big worry I had about the Yankees, that they were one more injury away from falling off the face of the earth.
37:44They never had that injury, the one more, beyond the one where it became out.
37:50But it's not just a Cole Rodon issue for me.
37:54Max Fried pitched way more than he's ever pitched in his life last season.
37:59Schlittler and Warren pitched way more than they have.
38:03Louis Heal is a constantly injured pitcher.
38:07Ryan Yarborough is a swing man.
38:09To me, this idea of, well, we have those five guys to hold the fort until Cole and Rodon come back, I would say I don't gamble.
38:23I don't have an app.
38:24I don't do any of it.
38:25But if you told me there was a bet, do the Yankees survive six weeks of spring training where Freed, Hill, Warren Schlittler, and Yarborough are all healthy on March 20, whatever the thing is?
38:39No way.
38:40So, already, now you're down to what?
38:42Alan Winans?
38:43Trying to rush Elma Cruz.
38:45So, I would go get another starting pitcher.
38:49Well, do they go in the trade market for that?
38:52Because, again, I hear names like Sandy Alcantara, Joe Ryan.
38:55There's guys out there.
38:56You're like, you're rumors.
38:57I think Miami's much more likely to trade Edward Cabrera.
39:02Him.
39:02I would take him in a heartbeat, too.
39:04Then, yeah, it's, again, like, that is, is it Lombard?
39:12Is it Spencer Jones?
39:14Is it?
39:15I'm trying to win a championship, right?
39:17I get you.
39:18I would just buy it, whatever that next level of starter is.
39:24I'm going to make up a name.
39:25I don't think they're in on this play.
39:27Okay.
39:27So, I'd be comfortable making up the name.
39:29Yeah.
39:29Like, if you told me you could sign Merrill Kelly for, like, two years and whatever, because he's an older starter.
39:38I think he could handle New York.
39:40I think he's a legitimate number three starter.
39:42I think you could start him in a playoff game.
39:45And, like, if I get to the point where all my starters are healthy, and I'm, like, trying to figure it out, I'll make a trade during the season.
39:54I'll use the optionality on guys like Warren and Schlittler, who I'll probably want to slow down during the season.
40:00And I'll just wait for the next injury to happen.
40:03I think they should go get a real starting pitcher.
40:05Me, too.
40:05Who fits in there.
40:06It doesn't have to be expensive, and it doesn't have to be a one.
40:09But it's got to be somebody who helps you.
40:12And you imagine, like, this idea that, like, Rodon and Cole are just going to come back.
40:15And then when they come back, they're going to roll.
40:18The other thing I would think about with Rodon and Cole is you need to try to be like the Dodgers.
40:24The Dodgers could have started Otani on day one last year.
40:27They contemplated having Otani pitch out of the bullpen in the 2024 postseason.
40:33Think about that.
40:34And then they slow played him.
40:36And it didn't start until, like, was it late May, June, whatever.
40:39I think that Rodon and Cole, especially Cole, off of Tommy John, need to be on that program,
40:45which is have arrogance that you're going to play important games starting October 1st.
40:50And you say to Cole, I'll see you June 1st.
40:53Could you start on May 1st?
40:55Sure.
40:56I'll see you June 1st.
40:57Because if I got 130 innings from you, I got to save 30 of them for the postseason.
41:03I completely agree with you, Joel.
41:05It's a smart way to play.
41:06And I would slow play Rodon, who's been a heavily used starter the last two seasons for that.
41:11I mean, I heard, again, I'm not here to make excuses for players.
41:15Somebody told me, by the time the Yankees reached the playoffs last year,
41:19Rodon couldn't even straighten out his arm.
41:22That's how bad the chip was in the elbow.
41:24So he couldn't really throw his slider.
41:25And I give him credit.
41:27He went out there, did his best, whatever.
41:30Like, Rodon is changing opinions about him in his time as a Yankee.
41:36But he needed to go get that procedure and get the chip dealt with.
41:40Didn't they say there was even more to clean up than they thought when they went in there?
41:44Well, I think that he was just in a situation where he was a compromised starter.
41:49He was able to throw the ball, but he wasn't able to, you know, his slider is his most important pitch.
41:53Again, that is, by the way, I'm not reporting anything.
41:56That's secondary.
41:57I did not hear that from Carlos Rodon or like Matt Blake or Brian Cashman.
42:01I heard it from somebody associated with the team who was an admirer of Rodon who said,
42:06I'm telling you, this guy gutted it through the end of the year for us.
42:10So I would give him some time.
42:13He's been heavily for a guy who in the early part of his career, the questions about durability,
42:18he was really durable these last two years.
42:20And so because I'm talking about slow playing to your main starting pitchers,
42:25because I have lack of faith in Louis Ciel staying healthy,
42:28because I worry like Cam Schlittler might be great or Cam Schlittler might have been a shot in the dark.
42:35We just saw the best of Cam Schlittler or he gets hurt or Will Warren.
42:39It's like I would go get a starting pitcher and worry if I have too many at any point,
42:46because you know what you're not going to have?
42:48Too many.
42:48I completely agree with you, Joel.
42:50I could not agree with you more on this exact topic.
42:52And it doesn't have to be an ace, Ryan.
42:54To me, it's got to be a guy you feel good will, after five or six innings,
42:59with a good offense behind him and what you hope is a good bullpen,
43:03hand the ball to Aaron Boone with a chance to win the game regularly.
43:07I mean, it would be better if you could find another.
43:09I mean, maybe you roll the dice on someone like Cabrera, who's also off injured.
43:14He's injured every year.
43:15But, man, he is talented, and you're thinking, hey, with our medical staff and our pitching lab and everything,
43:23do we translate unhealthy number three-ish starter into something else?
43:29It's going to cost you a lot to find that out.
43:32And from a team-building philosophy standpoint, like, if you got a player like that into your starting rotation,
43:37you're turning what everyone is saying is a strength, is a strength, is a strength.
43:41Now you're turning it into a juggernaut if you do get eventually to the point you hope to next year.
43:45And that's where you could be really flexible, where you could trade someone for another piece that you need
43:51to help build your team into a championship.
43:52But the fact that you could make your starting rotation that much of a weapon at the end of the year next year,
43:57that's where my thought is.
43:58And, again, I don't trust the situation the Yankees are going in.
44:01Let's wrap this all up, Joel, for the winter meetings for here today on Monday.
44:05Everything I am seeing or hearing or believing and reading into with you and everyone else down there,
44:11it feels like the free agent signings are not going to be fast and furious.
44:15You even started this show saying that.
44:17Should we expect a bunch of trades and deals to happen during this offseason?
44:22Because that's where it seems like a lot of this noise is going around.
44:26Like players I've talked about, and I'm sure there's other names we haven't even mentioned,
44:29but it seems like the trade market could be really fast and furious.
44:32Do you believe that?
44:35I think there'll be lots of trades made.
44:38I think what needs to happen is Kyle Schwarber needs to sign.
44:43He feels like the thing blocking the artery, right?
44:47Like that you've got to clear.
44:49So the bloodpuds.
44:50There's so many teams that have him as either a number one priority or a top priority
44:57and don't want to move on to two, three, four, five.
45:01So, like, Cody Bellinger isn't signing, and Pete Alonso isn't signing,
45:06and Alex Bregman isn't signing, and Kyle Tucker isn't signing.
45:09None of these guys are signing until Schwarber signs.
45:12No one's getting traded until I know what's happening with Kyle Schwarber.
45:16Because, like, even the Reds think they have a Hail Mary chance of bringing him back home.
45:22He's from suburban Cincinnati.
45:24So if the Reds think it, and the Red Sox think it, and maybe the Mets think it,
45:28and the Phillies, who probably would move heaven and earth to make sure he doesn't leave there,
45:32thinks it.
45:33And what other five teams are in this?
45:36We need that to happen.
45:39I think there is some chance it happens at these meetings.
45:43But I'll leave you with another thing that somebody always says to me, a veteran agent.
45:48He goes, I hate when a reporter asks me, is it close?
45:53Because there's a deal, and there's not a deal.
45:58There's no close.
45:59He goes, I've been at the one-yard line and finished the contract in 15 minutes,
46:04and I've been at the one-yard line and never finished the contract at all.
46:09Or it took me another three weeks to finish it because new stuff came up.
46:14So he goes, so the sense of the teams that seem to be in on Schwarber, who I talk to,
46:20say they think it's close, the definition of your close and my close differ with usage, right?
46:32Yeah.
46:32And so these meetings would be a lot more entertaining and traffic-y and jammed with stuff
46:42if that went down in the next, say, 24, where on Monday, everyone's running out of here probably
46:48like by Wednesday afternoon.
46:50Some will, like me, will linger to Thursday.
46:53But like this market could use Kyle Schwarber to go down.
46:58And if he did, then I think that flurry comes.
47:01If not, I think what happens is we all leave here and then next week,
47:08because like I think what's happening right now is everybody is trying to,
47:13forgive the mixed message metaphor of sports here, pushing the puck towards the goal.
47:18And it's in front of the goal, but they don't want to shoot yet
47:21because they got to know about other stuff and the actual price on things.
47:26Like even, for example, the Phillies aren't hiding it.
47:31Priority one is to re-sign Schwarber.
47:34But if they don't, think about the tectonic plates that move.
47:37Maybe they suddenly are big on Alonso as a replacement.
47:42Or they're looking in the trade market.
47:45Or they're, hey, let's spend a lot more money now on our X.
47:49And it's the Phillies, a top of the market, all-in veteran team run by Dave Dombrowski
47:56and owned by John Middleton.
47:57So like, that's got to have, like, like, again, I have a free agent.
48:02I don't want that free agent to sign unless if Kyle Schwarber goes someplace else,
48:07Phillies have a lot of money, man.
48:08And it isn't like if the Phillies lose Kyle Schwarber, they're going to go,
48:11well, that's it for 2026.
48:13They're going to be like, okay, what can we do?
48:17Can we sign Alex Bregman and trade Alec Boehm for the thing we need?
48:21Can we hurt the Mets by signing Alonso and putting him at first,
48:28put Harper back in the outfield?
48:29Now we'll go find a different kind of DH.
48:31Or we make Alonso the DH and I'll go find it out.
48:34So like when you have big market teams like the Phillies and Mets and Yankees
48:37and stuff like that, like no agent wants to move until he knows who has what to spend.
48:43And to me, the chess piece is Schwarber.
48:46Even more, like Kyle Tucker is going to get double whatever Schwarber gets,
48:52maybe more than that.
48:54And yet there's fewer teams there.
48:56And it's a very specific taste for that kind of level of contract,
49:01which is going to be at least 300 plus million and probably will start with a four.
49:07And so therefore it's fewer.
49:09Yeah.
49:10And so therefore he's not holding up the market.
49:13Schwarber is holding up the market.
49:15And so as a junkie for wanting news,
49:19I'm hoping he goes down so that the dam burst and we move.
49:26Joel Sherman, we appreciate you, man.
49:28I could, I could ask you a billion more questions about the Yankees,
49:30but I appreciate all the time.
49:31We got a lot of off season to go.
49:32I know, I know.
49:33And I appreciate you giving us some time there at the winter meetings.
49:36Fans pay attention to Joel's coverage all throughout this week.
49:39There's going to be a ton of things.
49:40I'm sure he's going to report on and discuss and be more than happy to,
49:43to, to give us video content for as always.
49:45Hit that like,
49:46hit that subscribe button on the New York Post Sports YouTube channel.
49:48Follow Joel along at the winter meetings and we'll catch you next time,
49:51Joel.
49:52And I'm sure we'll have plenty to talk about then.
49:54All right, Ryan.
49:55All the best.
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