00:00This is part two of our series on the most important free agents for the New York teams.
00:05Yesterday we did Pete Alonzo, today we're going to do Cody Bellinger.
00:09I'm coming to you from up in Toronto, where the World Series has begun.
00:14Let's do three things. Let's start with one, the case for Cody Bellinger.
00:19He had a 20-25 on par with Kyle Tucker, who people expect to be the highest paid free agent this year.
00:25Somebody who gets at least $300 million, maybe $400 million.
00:28He had a five-war baseball reference. That was actually a little more than Tucker.
00:35He hit more homers. He stole less bases. The overall player was pretty similar to Kyle Tucker.
00:43Bellinger's skill set fit the Yankees perfectly.
00:47He told Aaron Boone, play me where you want, build the rest of the lineup around me.
00:52So he was low maintenance. He played left, center, and right very well.
00:55On the few occasions he went to first base, you could see why people say that first base is ultimately going to be his best position.
01:02On a team we sometimes think strike out too much.
01:06Bellinger had a career-low strikeout percentage. It's 13.7%.
01:10He OPSed over 1,000 left-on-left.
01:14It was the best in the major leagues this year.
01:16And he had a .977 OPS with runners in scoring position.
01:22He's played in the three largest markets you could play in.
01:25Los Angeles, Chicago, New York.
01:26And he's done it extremely well.
01:29If you think about the Yankees for next season,
01:33Jason Dominguez was barely a left fielder.
01:35It's hard to imagine you want to move him back to center.
01:38Aaron Judge moves deeper into his mid-30s.
01:41You don't really want to move him back to center.
01:44You have no idea if Spencer Jones is actually a major league player,
01:47so you can't just hand him a silver platter and say, go play center field.
01:52In the Yankees' case, then, what do you do if it's not Bellinger?
01:57Do you retain Trent Grisham?
01:59Do you reunite with a free agent, Harrison Bader?
02:02Or do you trade for Luis Robert from the Chicago White Sox,
02:06who didn't have a very good year and makes $20 million next year?
02:10Uh, Bellinger already had the qualifying offer on him,
02:14so he can't be offered it for this offseason,
02:17which means no draft pick compensation.
02:20Two, let's do the case against Cody Bellinger.
02:24Uh, look, he's a player who, as recently as after the 2022 season,
02:30if you think the Dodgers are the best organization in the sport,
02:33they non-tendered him after the 2022 season.
02:36That's not long ago.
02:37He signed a one-year make-good contract with the Cubs,
02:41and man, he made good.
02:42He finished 10th for the NL MVP that year.
02:45The industry still doubted him.
02:47He got, didn't get the long, big, nine-figure contract.
02:51He signed a three-year, $80 million deal,
02:54uh, that had opt-outs after each season.
02:57And he, uh, in 2024, did not have a big year.
03:03He didn't opt out, uh, which is strange for a, uh, Scott Boris client.
03:10Uh, it suggests they didn't see the big market again for him.
03:14This time, he did go back in, and he had, and, and, and the Cubs made him available to the entire industry.
03:23We're looking to trade him.
03:24They wanted to trade for Kyle Tucker.
03:25And the industry still thought so little of Bellinger that the, who had two years at 52.5 left, 27.5, um, 25 on the back end for 2026 as a player option.
03:40To move him, the Cubs had to eat $5 million and only take Cody Petit from the Yankees.
03:45So, the industry still was not loving him.
03:49He had a strong 2025, as we mentioned earlier.
03:52What will the industry think of him this year?
03:56Uh, Bellinger fits Yankee Stadium.
03:59The Yankees fit Bellinger.
04:01Bellinger had only a 715 OPS away from Yankee Stadium this year.
04:05It was, um, well over 900 at home, where he also hit 18 homers compared to 11.
04:11So, will the rest of the industry go,
04:13you're a lot like, kind of, the Cub player in 2024 and built up more by Yankee Stadium.
04:19And the fact that you do have extra value, you're a very good player in every way.
04:23Uh, Bellinger is, uh, a year and a half older than Tucker.
04:28Uh, age always matters in free agency.
04:30The Yankees are going to have to wonder, um, are we cursed in center field?
04:36If this is where they want to spend some big money, not in their, far in their distant past.
04:41Seven years, 153 million for Jacoby Ellsbury.
04:44Seven years, 70 million for Aaron Hicks.
04:47They were both disasters.
04:49So, what would I advise Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman?
04:54This is number three.
04:56Uh, I really like this player.
04:58Uh, I think he's real.
05:00I think, uh, anecdotally, I've heard from people.
05:03He went to one of the, uh, hitting labs in the off season after 2020, 20, 2024.
05:10And he's a guy who became much more connected to his swing, understands why it works.
05:14He's a great athlete.
05:16I think he'll age pretty well.
05:19Uh, look, uh, this is, I'm going to talk about, uh, how recency bias and all your biases could work.
05:27Kyle Tucker is a player who leaves me cold.
05:29Uh, the Astros became the Yankees' number one nemesis over the last 10 years, more than the Red Sox.
05:36So, those two teams have played a ton of big series against each other.
05:42And let's say I've been personally at 10 of those, 12 of those.
05:45I have left those series talking about how great Jose Altuve is, or Carlos Correa, or Alex Bregman, or George Springer, or even Jeremy Pena, Jordan Alvarez.
05:57It was hard to remember that Kyle Tucker played in those series.
06:01I, I, again, this is, I know if I watched him every day, there would probably be a different kind of player.
06:07But you talk to scouts, they talk about what a low energy player he is.
06:11They wonder about him if he really, even after playing a year in Chicago, wants to do a big market for an extended period of time.
06:19Bellinger will probably cost about half, maybe less than that, of, of what the final number on Tucker ends up being.
06:27You always have to consider that Hal Steinbrenner is going to try to limit some payroll moving forward.
06:33I will point out when it comes to Yankee payroll, DJ LeMayu, who, though not on the team, is on for $15 million in 2026, comes off after that.
06:43After 27, the big deal of Giancarlo Stanton comes off.
06:46After 28, the big deals of Carlos Rodon and Garrett Cole come off.
06:51So there is some evergreen there as far as joining Max Freed and Aaron Judge as the big contracts moving forward.
07:00I like the player.
07:02I think he fits them perfectly.
07:04The problem for the Yankees, the Phillies need outfielders.
07:07I think the Phillies are going to make Kyle Schwarber priority one.
07:11If they do that, are they done in big free agency?
07:14We'll see.
07:15The Mets are in a situation like the Yankees were last season where they could use both a center fielder
07:20and if they don't keep Pete Alonzo, first base.
07:24And those are two positions Bellinger could come over and be kind of a cheat code.
07:29They could either then find the center fielder, he moves to first base.
07:32They could find the first baseman and say, keep Alonzo, move him to center.
07:35So just looking at those two teams, you see two other big market teams who probably should be in on Bellinger.
07:42And it's not hard to make a case why multiple teams should be in on Bellinger.
07:46But I feel like the Yankees need to extend a little bit for a player who so clearly works.
07:52And again, I am up here in Toronto and I'm watching a World Series, which through just one game,
07:58but through a whole year for the Blue Jays, their ability to put the ball in play and put the ball in play well
08:04feels like part of the future against pitching this good.
08:08And Cody Bellinger is exceptional at putting the ball in play and putting it in play well.
08:13And I think the Yankees have to do everything they could to try to find a way back to him.
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