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00:00:00I think that the Yankees really are Cody Bellinger re-signing away from being in a very comfortable position to make decisions.
00:00:10Where they're not, like if Cody Bellinger doesn't come back, they have to fix the team in a lot of different ways.
00:00:18If Cody Bellinger comes back, they could do, they could be opportunistic and fix at the margins.
00:00:25Hello and welcome to the Pinstripe Post. My name is Ryan Sampson.
00:00:28That's the star of the show, Joel Sherman. Today is Tuesday, October 14th.
00:00:32The New York Yankees season has officially ended and we are in off-season mode here, Joel.
00:00:36And that's why we're so happy to have you here in studio.
00:00:39On today's episode, we're going to talk about where the Yankees are going this off-season,
00:00:42what are the moves they could potentially or not make potentially this off-season,
00:00:46what players could be moved from this roster, additions that could be on this roster.
00:00:49We're going to break it all down on today's episode.
00:00:51But before I get to any of that, Joel Sherman, how are you doing today?
00:00:53Good. I got my playoff cold around early and I'm still working.
00:00:57So we have this good separation of church and state here or something.
00:01:00So I'm not giving it to you or the lovely Heather over here.
00:01:04I'm working to stay in my own airspace.
00:01:07But I'm and it also means that I'm here, right?
00:01:10Because neither of the New York teams are in it.
00:01:12I'll rejoin the playoffs here at some point.
00:01:14Certainly the World Series, maybe the end of an LCS someplace else.
00:01:17But we wanted to kind of wrap up the Yankee season.
00:01:20So I'm glad we're here doing it.
00:01:21Me as well. Look, it it's never easy to kind of unpack and figure out where this team stands,
00:01:28especially with how this season went.
00:01:30And I think you you had hit on it a bunch last week about, you know,
00:01:35is there a realization for this Yankees organization of are they meeting the trend
00:01:39that maybe is going on in baseball right now with like a Blue Jays or Brewers,
00:01:43where they're high contact, low strikeout, have a ton of athletes on the roster,
00:01:48or do they continue to do more of the same where it's a lot of power, a lot of home runs.
00:01:53It gets us through the whole one sixty two.
00:01:55And then it's a it's a crapshoot.
00:01:56It's pretty much in the wild and in the playoffs itself.
00:02:00But for you right now in this moment, how does this work for the Yankees and Brian Cashman,
00:02:06his team?
00:02:07What exactly are they going through right now and evaluating how they want to go about this
00:02:11offseason?
00:02:12So there's a lot to unpack there, Ryan.
00:02:14I think you hit a lot of the key stuff.
00:02:16So let let let's I'd like to deal with a macro issue first, which is the Yankees haven't won
00:02:22the World Series the last 16 seasons.
00:02:24And I think what tends to happen when there's failure at the end, which there's now been
00:02:29for 16 straight years, either at the end of a regular season, usually someplace in the
00:02:33postseason is it all gets layered on top of each other.
00:02:35Oh, we didn't win again.
00:02:36Kind of feeling among the fan base.
00:02:39I actually thought this year's team that ended the season was better than the team that went
00:02:45to the World Series.
00:02:47The team that went to the World Series was kind of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and Pray for
00:02:52Rain.
00:02:52Like like those guys had to carry it.
00:02:54We spent a lot of shows last year where I was saying they're bad at baseball.
00:02:57And then at the end, games one and five are lost in the World Series.
00:03:01They might have won the World Series if they were not bad at baseball.
00:03:04By the end of this year, I thought they were above average on defense.
00:03:08That's a lot of Ryan McMahon and Cody Bellinger improving things overall.
00:03:13I thought they were at least more of a threat on the bases.
00:03:16More athletes, more speed, Caballero, Jazz, etc.
00:03:21They hit more homers this year than the Juan Soto team.
00:03:24They scored more runs than the Juan Soto team.
00:03:28Their rotation was very similar.
00:03:30The bullpen was worse.
00:03:31And that maybe killed them in the end also.
00:03:34But I actually thought for a team that lost in the Division Series, it was better than
00:03:39a team that went to the World Series but got a favorable draw with two AL Central teams
00:03:43in Kansas City and Cleveland who they were much better than.
00:03:47So I think that one of the things Yankees have to be kind of careful about, maybe the
00:03:50fan base thinking about it also is, are we building from something a little better than
00:03:55they built off of a World Series team, off of an AL pennant team, which I think is probably
00:04:01accurate.
00:04:02Now let's deal with the other issue, which is putting the ball in play more and stuff
00:04:06like that.
00:04:07First of all, to your point, I think their defense, it might not be the Brewers, but
00:04:11it got better.
00:04:12And so they're building off of a better defense.
00:04:16You've got to be careful at this time of year to overreact to certain things.
00:04:21And I certainly think that the bottom of their lineup has to put the ball in play, guys like
00:04:25Volpe if he's going to be on the team, and use his speed, whatever.
00:04:29But Ryan, since 2021, this is an easy thing to look up.
00:04:33The team that hits more homers wins 90% of playoff games.
00:04:36Like, it's dramatic in this postseason.
00:04:39It's even higher.
00:04:40The Blue Jays ultimately out homered the Yankees 9-4.
00:04:44The pitching is so great right now that if you don't put the ball over the fence in the
00:04:47postseason, it is hard to put three singles together, right?
00:04:51Like, ultimately, Seattle wins a game.
00:04:55Yesterday, we're watching.
00:04:56It's walk, walk, homer.
00:04:56Yeah.
00:04:57Like, we don't like that about the Yankees.
00:04:59But that's how Seattle won a game, is walk, walk, homer.
00:05:02And so you need that, but also within the context of that, there are guys on the Yankees
00:05:09who, where power isn't their full calling card, and Volpe really stands out to me for
00:05:16this, who just can't strike out 28% of the time, right?
00:05:21We watched the Tigers get beat this year.
00:05:24The Tigers were a high strikeout team, and it killed them at certain points in the postseason.
00:05:28So I think we're seeing some of the better teams drive down strikeout numbers while understanding
00:05:35you better hit a certain amount of homers.
00:05:37It's not easy to do because, Ryan, how many times when we've done the show together where
00:05:42I go, we know the universe of players.
00:05:44Let's sit down and see the number of players who strike out less than 20% of the time,
00:05:50but also hit home runs regularly.
00:05:52Like, there's just not a lot of these guys, and they're hard to get.
00:05:56So the question is, can you take a group of players, the Austin Wellses, the Volpe's,
00:06:01the McMahons, who are good athletes, who have some stuff in them, and say, there are times
00:06:08where you must decide what kind of offensive player you're going to be.
00:06:12And by the way, this is philosophically, I'm sure the Yankee, a lot of Yankee officials
00:06:16would say to me, no.
00:06:18Like, this is casino baseball.
00:06:19Take your A swing three times in every situation.
00:06:22And I think that's wrong.
00:06:25And I'm not suggesting, let's go back to pepper the ball around.
00:06:29But there are certain situations where you have to decide, like, it's a life or death.
00:06:34I have to get the ball in play.
00:06:36And it's not taking the A swing through three strikes.
00:06:40And the Yankees have to get closer to that.
00:06:44They hit 30 more homers than any team this year.
00:06:4730 more.
00:06:48The question is, can they hit 40 fewer and still be a big home run team, but have some
00:06:56other stuff as part of their offense?
00:06:59Now, some of that other stuff was speed.
00:07:01They got some of that this year.
00:07:03So I want to be careful not to just say, hey, let's pepper the ball around like it's 1971
00:07:11again.
00:07:12Because you've got to get the ball over the fence.
00:07:13The numbers show it's clear.
00:07:14You hit a home run in the postseason.
00:07:16You out-homer your opponent in the postseason.
00:07:19Brewers advance, right?
00:07:20Three homers.
00:07:21Like, we think of the Brewers as the little engine that could.
00:07:24But that's how they advance.
00:07:25They hit three homers in a game.
00:07:26So I think you've got to be careful a little bit about, like, hey, strikeouts are going
00:07:32to be part of the litany if you hit the ball over the fence.
00:07:35The question is, can you drop the strikeout number 2%, 3%?
00:07:40And especially in what parts of the game are you sacrificing some power because you're playing
00:07:46the scoreboard, understanding that on June 12th, you might beat the White Sox playing
00:07:51this way.
00:07:52But what are you going to do in the postseason when sometimes the thing is you must get it
00:07:57in play?
00:07:58It's a good question and it's a good thought, right?
00:08:01Like, if you're Brian Cashman, I guess I would ask, you know, are you valuing the players
00:08:08that you currently have on your roster or as they can do this and you're evaluating and
00:08:12saying, you know what, I think we can get more out of Opie.
00:08:14We can get more out of Wells.
00:08:15We can get more out of, you know, maybe a Dominguez.
00:08:17Or are you looking at the market and saying, no, we don't think we could do this in-house and
00:08:22we think we might have to go outside our roster.
00:08:24Do you think that at all takes place where Cashman's basically saying, do we need a bigger
00:08:31overhaul on this roster or should we really run it back most of the pieces that we had
00:08:36and making those tweaks that you're talking about?
00:08:38Yeah, I think they're mostly going to run it back.
00:08:41I don't think the marketplace shapes up for what they want unless there's something that
00:08:48should be said.
00:08:49I think they really have to prioritize Bellinger, who fits into every little bucket we just
00:08:56talked about.
00:08:56He's, you go down the universe of guys who don't strike out a lot and could put the ball
00:09:01over the fence.
00:09:01He hit 29 homers and struck out 14% of the time, which was a career low for him.
00:09:06But he's always a guy who limits strikeouts and can hit for power, play across the outfield,
00:09:10play first base.
00:09:11He could run, he could defend, he could hit left on left.
00:09:13To me, he's a very big priority for them.
00:09:15So, like, if you told me the Yankees brought back Bellinger, I think that they probably
00:09:21then do things around the edges.
00:09:23Because I know the place that Yankee fans want to go, which is shortstop.
00:09:27But that, again, there's no shortstop store on 53rd and Madison.
00:09:33You only can get what's available.
00:09:35And, like, what's available that you would feel comfortable and confident doing.
00:09:42And then part of it is you're always playing a little bit of a bridge game.
00:09:46Do you think George Lombard is ultimately going to be your shortstop?
00:09:51Maybe as the Yankees, you should never worry about a prospect down the road.
00:09:55But they probably don't want to block the position for too long.
00:09:59And internally, not Ryan Sampson and Yankee fans, internally, they still have faith that
00:10:06Volpe is going to be something.
00:10:08It is a comparison that I encourage Yankee fans – this is, by the way, doesn't come
00:10:12from the Yankees.
00:10:13It's my comparison.
00:10:14I ran some numbers and I noticed.
00:10:16He has a very similar first three years of his career to Dansby Swanson.
00:10:21Dansby Swanson, as good a defender as he is, he led the National League in Errors one
00:10:25year in those first three years.
00:10:26He had a sub-300 on base percentage.
00:10:28He struck out way too much.
00:10:30And then at about 27, 28, 29, he had his three best years.
00:10:35I don't think it's outrageous that the Yankees think that can happen for Volpe.
00:10:41More and more, I've come to believe that Volpe is probably a second baseman and not a shortstop
00:10:46and that they would be best off getting to that.
00:10:50I continue to believe that their offensive philosophy hurts him and doesn't help him and
00:10:57that he needs to either block them out or they need to say, we're not having an overall
00:11:03philosophy, for you, your amateur slash minor league career was about being a good hitter.
00:11:10And you're not a good hitter right now.
00:11:13The Yankees need to get to the point where when you look at Anthony Volpe, if they're
00:11:16going to move forward with him, and I'm sure they're going to move forward with him, where
00:11:19you reach a point where you go, he's a good major league hitter.
00:11:23And who cares how many homers come at the end of that?
00:11:26But that's one of the places I would go from 265 homers to 200, not that I'd rather hit
00:11:32265.
00:11:33But if I have to go from 265 to 230, one of the places I would say is Anthony Volpe sacrificed
00:11:3910.
00:11:40I actually think he wouldn't sacrifice as many as you think if he's hitting the ball more
00:11:44and hitting it well.
00:11:46Because the right field at home will play to some of his power.
00:11:51I think as he gets comfortable and realizes what pitchers and what counts he should try
00:11:56to actually dust and Pedroia a ball, he'll do that every once in a while.
00:12:00And he'll get to 15, 12 to 15.
00:12:03But if the end of that was 255 with a 320 on base percentage, like just above league average
00:12:11numbers, where he then gets to use his base running, his speed, it's just a different
00:12:16player.
00:12:17Can he get there?
00:12:19I don't know.
00:12:20But that's what I try to do with this player, especially if I was looking at a marketplace
00:12:25that doesn't, like my gut is that Hasan Kim of the Braves will make himself, will opt out
00:12:36of his player option.
00:12:38I do think the Braves are going to try to keep him.
00:12:39Would you give him like three years at 45 million to come play shortstop?
00:12:46I think if you watched him play every day, you might not love it either.
00:12:49You know, like that's one of those things.
00:12:51So what I would do if I were the Yankees is I would talk to Volpe about offense, but
00:12:57I would also say it's 2023 again.
00:13:00You've got to come win your job in spring.
00:13:02And Caballero is a fine alternative if you still have a strong lineup to play shortstop.
00:13:09We saw he'll he will field the ball.
00:13:12He will probably produce major league average offense with speed, which is what this lineup
00:13:18feels like it needs.
00:13:19It does.
00:13:19So like like I'm not afraid of a Caballero and if he's all the way back as Waldo Cabrera mixed
00:13:27in their shortstop or somebody you pick up who you like as a quadruple A or a small player
00:13:32like kind of guy on the marketplace and say to Anthony Volpe, you have plenty of minor league
00:13:37options.
00:13:37If we've got to begin the season with you in the minor leagues next year, we will.
00:13:42You've got to come to spring training prepared to be a good major league hitter.
00:13:47But I think that's as much about Yankee philosophy as about Anthony Volpe.
00:13:52Yeah, like like like if I tell you to change religions and you don't want to change religions,
00:13:57it's hard to do.
00:13:59And so I'm not sure philosophically if the Yankees are a great place for Volpe because
00:14:05he feels like he's caught between all the time.
00:14:08And I think he should block them out and say I was a first round draft choice because I
00:14:15hit the ball in a certain way.
00:14:17Can I hit the ball in that way again and have like real benchmarks?
00:14:21Can I strike out 22 percent of the time?
00:14:2521 percent.
00:14:26That's like like major league average.
00:14:28Like like if he was a major league average across the board, 250, 320, 22 percent.
00:14:37His value rises significantly.
00:14:40And I think it would calm him down on defense if he was just major league average offense
00:14:45and wasn't having to deal with this all the time.
00:14:47And ultimately, again, I think he's a second baseman.
00:14:50Well, I think his arm is a second base arm.
00:14:52Yeah.
00:14:52I mean, look, you hit on the big one of the big ones there with Volpe.
00:14:56The question is, will the Yankees actually have an open competition for him in in spring
00:15:01training?
00:15:01Like, does it feel like they would actually do that?
00:15:03Or are they just going to because I feel like he's got two big supporters in that organization.
00:15:08And those are the two most important people.
00:15:10Brian Cashman and Anthony Volpe are big believers in Anthony Volpe.
00:15:14Why would they go in open competition and potentially damage this young players?
00:15:19His morale and in what his mentality is going into next year.
00:15:24So I more and more don't believe in that.
00:15:26OK, which is if if that would damage his morale, he ain't going to succeed here anyway.
00:15:33So why I think telling hard truths to players isn't the bad thing.
00:15:38Like you're doing the player a favor.
00:15:41You're not doing something bad.
00:15:42Like you have already expressed your loyalty and love to Anthony Volpe.
00:15:46I don't think that that's changing.
00:15:48I agree with you.
00:15:49I think Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman believe in the player, though.
00:15:53I have a feeling maybe one of those two believes in it a little less than they used to.
00:15:59OK.
00:15:59And I don't even know that you need to openly state that there is a competition as much as like like I think you could subtly say to him, every player does an exit interview.
00:16:12Every player is given offseason objectives, whether it's like add muscle, lose weight, work on this work, you know, pitchers like go to this lab, work on your change up, etc.
00:16:26Anthony, we need you badly to do this for you to be whatever.
00:16:29Like you should see some writing, you know, teams work with agents.
00:16:33Say to his agent, if you saw the September writing on the wall, we were willing to do something else for at least a week.
00:16:40Now, some of it coincided when Volpe needed a cortisone shot, but we were comfortable and won plenty of games when he wasn't playing.
00:16:49And we can do that.
00:16:50And this this this player is not Oswald Peraza.
00:16:54This player can play shortstop on at least a semi-regular basis.
00:16:59And if your guy isn't ready to do that, we'll have other options.
00:17:04Is that I don't think that's the right act.
00:17:06I don't think that's like like this is the biggest league in the world.
00:17:10It's competitive.
00:17:12Volpe won a job in a spring training one time.
00:17:15Go win a job again, man.
00:17:17Like like and if that breaks you, you were going to break.
00:17:20And I think like like Volpe's been through a lot in these three years from hero to goad.
00:17:24Yeah.
00:17:24Like let's remember where Yankee fans were in spring training 2023 where they were all screaming.
00:17:29If you don't put them on the team, you're not trying.
00:17:32Yeah.
00:17:32There was a time where that was the mindset of the Yankee fans.
00:17:36And he has gone from that state with their fan base to is he the most disliked guy on the team now?
00:17:42You're the fan.
00:17:43You tell me.
00:17:44I would say he's up there.
00:17:45Yeah.
00:17:45Right.
00:17:45So like like he's been through quite a lot.
00:17:48He's a local kid.
00:17:49So he hears all the noise 12 months a year.
00:17:52I would assume friends and family are not ignoring social media.
00:17:56I've seen a lot with the dad.
00:17:57You know.
00:17:57I've seen a lot with the dad.
00:17:58And they're probably not making his life easier.
00:18:01No.
00:18:01So he's been through a lot.
00:18:05It won't be a lot more to say this is the competitive world, man.
00:18:09You got to go out there and prove you're still somebody we should believe in at the highest level.
00:18:14You now have 1,500 major league plate appearances.
00:18:17You have three full seasons.
00:18:19You're 25.
00:18:20You should be growing fully into your prime year man muscle, man knowledge of the whole sport.
00:18:27Like how are you being pitched?
00:18:28What should be your swing path, et cetera?
00:18:31Go win a – go – because like he's entered – this is his offseason.
00:18:36He's an arbitration eligible player.
00:18:38Like you're starting to cost some money and tick towards free agency.
00:18:44We're going to have to make some decisions about you.
00:18:46That's just the circle of baseball life.
00:18:49I'm not going to break out in Disney's song here.
00:18:51But that's the circle of baseball life.
00:18:53It goes quicker than you think.
00:18:55Where suddenly it's like he's the kid and now he's arbitration eligible.
00:18:59And he's about to start his fourth year.
00:19:01You only get a couple more years until free agency.
00:19:04It's something I think a lot of Yankees fans are wondering too with Volpe is – and you can be quick on this if you want.
00:19:12But like is he even trade – like would you even consider a trade?
00:19:15Would a team even want to trade for him?
00:19:17Is he such a low value that it's not even worth trading something like that?
00:19:20But this is like one of those things you should know.
00:19:23Like there's a lot of teams that like Anthony Volpe.
00:19:25But they don't like him.
00:19:27Nobody is going to give the Yankees 100 cents on the dollar for what the Yankees think 100 cents is on this player.
00:19:32So this is a reclamation.
00:19:35You need to fix it.
00:19:37Anthony Volpe needs to fix it.
00:19:39And the institution that is the Yankees needs to fix it.
00:19:42And come to peace with what is the best version of Anthony Volpe.
00:19:49I can't believe even the most ardent Anthony Volpe fan in the Yankee organization or the most ardent fan on the belief system of pull it in the air philosophy hitting would believe that this is the best version of Anthony Volpe.
00:20:07Because if it is, it isn't good enough to –
00:20:09It's not good enough.
00:20:10It's not good enough.
00:20:11It certainly isn't.
00:20:13The other thing I want to talk about is – you hit on it before – Cody Bellinger.
00:20:16He's the big question mark it feels like for this Yankees offseason.
00:20:19He opted out.
00:20:20He's going to be a free agent.
00:20:22The market's going to be there for them because you've talked about so many things he does well.
00:20:26Are the Yankees going to be willing to go all in for Cody Bellinger and whatever it takes for that contract to be able to bring him back to the Yankees this year?
00:20:33Yeah.
00:20:34You know, Ryan, I think the Yankees will be big players for him.
00:20:39I'm curious what all in looks like for this player because on a one-on-one year basis, just talking 2025,
00:20:48to me he outplayed Kyle Tucker.
00:20:51And people are talking about $400 million.
00:20:54If you look at a three-year window, which is often how these things are, he's not.
00:20:59He probably looks a lot more like Brandon Nimmo going into free agency.
00:21:04If you go back not far, arguably the best-run organization in the sport, the Dodgers, non-tendered this player.
00:21:12So, like, this is all part of the swirl of is he a $140 million player?
00:21:17Is he a $240 million player?
00:21:20Is he a three-year-old?
00:21:21Like, I don't know what he is.
00:21:24The player who played this year is one of the most valuable players in the sport.
00:21:29Yeah.
00:21:29For the Yankees, he's particularly valuable, again, because they begin another offseason without a first baseman or a center fielder.
00:21:36By the way, you know who that's true about also?
00:21:38Maybe the Mets.
00:21:39I knew you were going to say that.
00:21:40Right?
00:21:41If Pete Alonso leaves, they don't have a center fielder.
00:21:44They might not have a first baseman.
00:21:46You could say it about the Phillies.
00:21:48Right?
00:21:48They don't have a center fielder.
00:21:49They don't have an outfielder to some degree.
00:21:52Right?
00:21:53And if they want to put Bryce Harper back in the outfield, they could put him at first, though I assume they would just leave Bryce at first and leave Cody in the outfield.
00:22:00They did it.
00:22:00Or a guy who's a five-tool player who succeeded in the clutch in New York, on the field, on the bases, in the batter's box.
00:22:12All 30 teams.
00:22:13Because they're unicorns.
00:22:15Like I said, there's not that many of these players walking the earth.
00:22:18So the question is, what is the number?
00:22:21However, I still believe, and I don't know if we want to kind of like get into some philosophical Hal Steinbrenner thing, that Hal Steinbrenner very badly believes that for him to make money on an annual basis, not what the value of the franchise is, he has to drive the payroll under $300 million.
00:22:38Right?
00:22:38To do that would mean cutting, say, $20-ish million.
00:22:41Right.
00:22:41Which, if some of their young players play well, is probably conceivable with them still being a very good team.
00:22:47And they're getting money off the books this year, too, with Aaron Hicks and—
00:22:51But LeMayu stays on the books.
00:22:53LeMayu stays on the books, but Aaron Hicks' contract and the Marcus Stroman contract will come off.
00:22:57Right.
00:22:57But, like, again, like Volpe's arbitration eligible for the first time.
00:23:01Like, there's some natural razors coming.
00:23:04Oh, look, we're not going to take a tin cup out.
00:23:07My suspicion is the Yankees will end up with a $300 million payroll again.
00:23:11My suspicion is this is the kind of player the Yankees push hard to try to retain.
00:23:15My sense was Cody Bellinger liked being here.
00:23:18There is some legacy.
00:23:19He knows his father played here.
00:23:21They're comfortable here, etc.
00:23:23But there's going to be competition for him.
00:23:25I think one of the things the Yankees could look at and say, okay, after 26, LeMayu's off the books.
00:23:31After 27, Stanton's off the books.
00:23:33After 28, Cole and Rodon are off the books.
00:23:36So there is some evergreen place to go to do an extended contract for Bellinger.
00:23:42And if you believe in Bellinger, the athlete, the seriousness of the player, his total skills.
00:23:48I think they're all bad bets, Ryan.
00:23:52Once you have a player in his 30s.
00:23:54We have a history of the game to suggest this isn't where you want it.
00:23:59But if you were starting to bet on players, he's a little bit like, to me, the hitting Max Freed.
00:24:04In that he's such a good athlete and so good at everything that he retains some value going into it.
00:24:12And in his case, his value is probably greater at Yankee Stadium with the short porch than it is almost any place else.
00:24:19That being said, it's a Scott Boris client.
00:24:21It's a guy who's had a fight for money these last few years.
00:24:25He opted into a contract because he was worried about what his marketplace would be.
00:24:29So my suspicion is, whoever gives him the most money will get the player.
00:24:34Yeah, I mean, if it's $5 million here or that.
00:24:37But there's not going to be some year, like, hey, you could give him $6 million.
00:24:40Somebody else is giving him $8 million.
00:24:42You could give him $175 million.
00:24:43Someone else is giving him $230 million.
00:24:45That's not happening to me.
00:24:47This player will probably go where the most money is.
00:24:51I think I would really keep an eye on the Phillies.
00:24:54The owner of the team is a very motivated buyer.
00:24:57If I'm a Yankee fan, I am rooting like heck that the Phillies re-sign Kyle Schwarber so that even that owner says,
00:25:05how many of these guys can we have because they have a lot of already players in their 30s signed to long-term contracts.
00:25:12So that would be a big deal.
00:25:14And, again, he's going to get a lot of money for a lot of years.
00:25:18I would suspect the Yankees understanding his value to the team and that they can cut payroll in other places,
00:25:27not with just what's leaving, walking out the door.
00:25:31Luke Weaver, Devin Williams, to your point, Stroman's off the books.
00:25:35Hicks is off the books finally for them on that seven-year contract.
00:25:38There are other things they could do.
00:25:40They could not qualify Grisham.
00:25:42Correct.
00:25:43They could see if they could trade Chisholm.
00:25:45Like there are other places for a player this valuable to see if you could get him back on the books.
00:25:51And then there becomes the question if you don't get a Bellinger and he does sign somewhere else,
00:25:56and let's say Kyle Tucker is still out there.
00:25:59I say no shot.
00:26:00No shot, yeah.
00:26:01I say no shot because I think the reason the Yankees wouldn't keep Bellinger is a financial one,
00:26:05and I don't see them doubling it to do Tucker.
00:26:07And I wouldn't – hey, look, Kyle Tucker is a terrific player, but I have watched a ton of big series.
00:26:15Usually it was Houston and the Yankees playing where I've seen Kyle Tucker play.
00:26:21And I've left that series talking about Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa and George Springer and Jeremy Pena
00:26:27and Jordan Alvarez and Garrett Cole and Justin Verlander.
00:26:31I don't ever remember talking about Kyle Tucker.
00:26:33You could have convinced me he didn't play in the series.
00:26:35So I just watched a high-impact season from Cody Bellinger, not just statistically,
00:26:41but I felt his presence in games.
00:26:44Maybe if I watched 162 games of Kyle Tucker, I would feel that.
00:26:48From a distance, Kyle Tucker feels like a great supporting actor who's just about to be paid like a lead actor,
00:26:55and I personally wouldn't do that if I were any team.
00:26:58And I can't see the Yankees doubling or more what they're willing to pay Cody Bellinger to bring in Tucker.
00:27:05And by the way, I don't think Tucker wants to play in this kind of market
00:27:08because he'd probably have to hear crap like that from me.
00:27:12It's certainly – it's interesting you say that they wouldn't do that.
00:27:15I mean, he's a – like you said –
00:27:18You just watch Kyle Tucker play in the postseason.
00:27:20I realize it's a very small atmosphere.
00:27:22Who's running to that?
00:27:24Like am I missing – like he's really –
00:27:27And he had a bad year.
00:27:28He's really – no, he had a good year for most people.
00:27:31For most people.
00:27:32Right?
00:27:32But for him –
00:27:33He had a year statistically a lot like Bellinger.
00:27:36Yeah.
00:27:37Like – but I watch – I know Bellinger did it for the Dodgers.
00:27:41I know Bellinger did it for the Cubs, and I know Bellinger did it for the Yankees.
00:27:44Because I know he's not – like to me, I'm emphasizing Bellinger,
00:27:50and if I don't get him, I have to figure something else out.
00:27:54But I would emphasize Bellinger.
00:27:56Unless Bellinger doesn't want – like secretly hated it here.
00:28:00I would try to make it very hard for Bellinger to leave.
00:28:03Well, it's interesting you say that.
00:28:04So if they don't get a Bellinger now, like let's say they do get Bellinger in this scenario.
00:28:09How does the rest of the outfield play out?
00:28:11We've heard Spencer Jones.
00:28:13Could he potentially make his way to the Major League roster?
00:28:15Jason Dominguez is still there.
00:28:17How does – how do the Yankees fill out the rest of this outfield?
00:28:21Because Trent Grisham, in all likelihood,
00:28:23it sounds like he's not going to be back this offseason.
00:28:26Unless I'm wrong and the Yankees do tender him a contract.
00:28:29How do you see that playing out?
00:28:30Right.
00:28:30So just term-wise, they don't tender him a contract.
00:28:33They would have to give him the qualifying offer.
00:28:35Tender is somebody under their control.
00:28:37So the question is, do they offer him the qualifying offer?
00:28:39And even if they do, does he accept it?
00:28:41Then he's a signed player for like $22 million next year.
00:28:46And, of course, they have to make that decision before they know what's going on with Bellinger.
00:28:50So like if they don't offer him the qualifying offer, he's a free agent.
00:28:56They could bring him back as a free agent.
00:28:58Like they could long play at him and say, okay, now we didn't do this.
00:29:00Would you come back and play with us for three years at 39 or 42, whatever it is.
00:29:05Like I don't know that I would get in the Trent Grisham business for that long.
00:29:08So one of the reasons I think Bellinger has value to the Yankees, beyond the obvious, is you could begin next year and say, if Spencer Jones earns his way onto the team, Bellinger could play more at first base.
00:29:26Like Bellinger's flexibility between the outfield and first base, where he can play both positions at a high level, change it like it just gives you the ability to be like, oh, Jones is ready.
00:29:42He'll play a lot of center field.
00:29:44And Cody could play left as well, really well at a high level too.
00:29:48Or right, yeah.
00:29:48Like it's a great chess piece to have, only extending his value to keep him because it allows you to potentially save money someplace else.
00:29:59Like more comfortably play Dominguez, more comfortably play Jones, more comfortably break in somebody who's not making as much money.
00:30:06So I think he has ulterior value in that way.
00:30:09So yeah, I think that next season will open with, if they bring him back, where, let's go north with our 26 best, 13 best position players.
00:30:22Who are those?
00:30:24You know, how does it fit together?
00:30:26Because again, remember, if Jones is part of it, you're very left-handed again, but it's just replacing Grisham, who's left-handed.
00:30:32I do think in the offseason, they have to come up with a right-hand hitter.
00:30:39Now, is that Rosario?
00:30:42Like, do Rosario and Caballero cover you in a lot of areas?
00:30:46Does Oswald Cabrera coming back?
00:30:49Like one of the things early this season, and it was just not a long runway, is he hit better right-handed than he had in the past.
00:30:55So, like, if you had Rosario, Caballero, Cabrera, none of whom's really a power guy, but, like, they're good chess pieces who could move around.
00:31:04Is that enough?
00:31:05Because Caballero could probably move around the outfield as long as his leg's okay.
00:31:08And I watched him.
00:31:10He was part of the team in the postseason.
00:31:12He was doing all the pregame work.
00:31:13He was moving around fine.
00:31:15And I would think an offseason would make that even better.
00:31:18So, is it that, is it Caballero and Cabrera, and then you go and get a right-hand hitter, is that Rob Refsnyder, is it Austin Hayes, is it that kind of player?
00:31:31It would be great if they could find somebody who can play the outfield, who hits right-handed, and also first base.
00:31:40Again, you could sit down.
00:31:42There's not a lot of those floating around, and that's part of the issue, because that would be the perfect chess piece also for the Yankees, is a guy who you think could hit lefty pitching well, who can play the outfield and first base.
00:31:56You know who's a guy who kills lefty pitching for multiple years, so I know it's not a freak, is Miguel Andujar.
00:32:03But he is a bad fielder everywhere, and you probably don't want to go back to it.
00:32:07But, like, do you know who had the second-best batting average in the major leagues this year for guys with 300 plate appearances after Aaron Judge?
00:32:14It's Miguel Andujar.
00:32:15That's crazy.
00:32:16Like, he hit well over 300 this year, and he's a good, he just turned himself, he is a good major league hitter, especially against lefty pitching, and he's not a giveaway against righty pitching.
00:32:26It's just, he never got to the point where he was even just slightly below average someplace.
00:32:31Third base, first base, corner outfield.
00:32:33So, for a guy who doesn't hit for power, it's a little, he's going to play baseball for a long time because he has a real skill set.
00:32:41But I would, considering Yankee left field, you want to bring in somebody who can, like, if you put him there, it's like, I'll throw out a name.
00:32:50He just had a terrible year.
00:32:51He might be done.
00:32:53But I always like Lane Thomas.
00:32:54Yeah.
00:32:55But he just had a terrible year.
00:32:56I don't, like, is he a minor league contract guy somebody could sign?
00:32:59And if he's doing that, does he want to do it with the Yankees where he doesn't, might not get a lot of playing time?
00:33:05I don't know.
00:33:06But they're going to have to bring in a right-hand hitting outfielder.
00:33:08Well, you bring up a good point.
00:33:10And you also, I talk, you talk about a lot pulling levers in certain situations.
00:33:15So, that's the situation if they bring back Bellinger.
00:33:18They bring back a right-handed bat for the outfield, you would hope.
00:33:21Maybe they, in the dream scenario, they could play first as well.
00:33:24But it's a right-handed corner outfield bat that can give them some depth off the bench when they face a tough lefty.
00:33:29So, let's pull.
00:33:30Can I throw one thing in?
00:33:33And it's kind of like the bigger thing, which is, I feel like between what they did in the offseason,
00:33:39where, like, they get a guy like Fernando Cruz, who has more than a couple of years,
00:33:43and at the trade deadline, David Bednar, McMahon, Duvall, Caballero,
00:33:49they are a little better set up going into the offseason.
00:33:53Yes.
00:33:53Listen, again, if I did nothing else but put Bellinger back on the team,
00:33:59I think you could line up that team and play.
00:34:02Especially with that rotation that you're excited for.
00:34:05Potential, where Cole might go, a full year, Schlittler.
00:34:08You know, maybe get Clark Schmidt back in the second half of the season.
00:34:12Maybe get the better version of Hill back.
00:34:13We never really saw that because maybe he got rushed or he wasn't fully whatever.
00:34:18So, there is that.
00:34:19Now, I don't think the Yankees are going to stop there.
00:34:21They really want to restock the bullpen a little bit more.
00:34:25But simply getting Bellinger back and the fact that they didn't trade the best of their farm system
00:34:31and the fact that they added some players, especially in the bullpen, who are part of, like,
00:34:37you start a bullpen next year, Bednar, Cruz, Duvall, Hill.
00:34:41It's not perfect, but it's fine.
00:34:46Now, can you find another reliever or two in the marketplace?
00:34:49Like, whether you're buying a guy, it would be great if they could find a second lefty.
00:34:55I think they need to add a starting pitcher just to feel comfort.
00:35:00Because, like, on one hand, you could look at the rotation and say,
00:35:04there is an upside that might not get to where the Dodgers are now.
00:35:08But, like, the upside of a full-on Cole, a full-on Schlittler, a full-on Rudon, and a full-on Freed,
00:35:14and potentially Hill or Schmidt.
00:35:16Like, that's pretty good if they get, like, the 90th percentile outcome from that group.
00:35:22And I haven't mentioned Will Warren, who had a nice little rookie season and is your depth again.
00:35:27I wouldn't even call it little.
00:35:27I mean, he pitched all year for you.
00:35:29Right.
00:35:29Like, he had a valuable—his value outstripped his numbers.
00:35:33Yeah.
00:35:33Like, and if he's your depth back at AAA, it's not the worst thing that ever happened.
00:35:37And they have some pitching prospects outside—because I always point out, it's not what the Yankees are hyping.
00:35:44If you go ask about Carlos Lagrange, if you go ask about Elma Cruz Rodriguez, or Rodriguez Cruz, I always get it backwards.
00:35:51If you go ask about Bryce Cunningham, if you ask about Ben Hess,
00:35:55if you are told the Yankees have a unit close to the major leagues, is it Tong, Sprout, McLean?
00:36:03I don't know.
00:36:03But those guys, those guys were not close enough to give them depth this year.
00:36:07I expect no fewer than two of those guys to pitch in the major leagues at some point next year.
00:36:12So the Yankees have a nice group of starting pitching.
00:36:15And having said that, I would protect myself with one more.
00:36:20It would be great if that was a swing guy.
00:36:22Like, what's the best version of Ryan Yarborough?
00:36:24Is it Ryan Yarborough?
00:36:26Ryan Yarborough back, yeah.
00:36:27Like, kind of guy where it's like, you bring him back.
00:36:30You'd like it to be a little better than that.
00:36:32But, like, you also might, under the best circumstances, that guy might never start.
00:36:37Like, if everything hit, that guy would never start.
00:36:41Right.
00:36:41Because the one thing that would be hard to do, like, you could put Warren back at AAA.
00:36:45It would be hard to put a full-on, if you really believe what you just saw in Schlittler, it would be hard to put him back at AAA.
00:36:52Like, he feels like you've got to run with him because he was so good and see if it's all real or not.
00:36:59But, you know, like, maybe you have some sophomore thing for Warren or Schlittler.
00:37:06Maybe, you know, like, I would keep in mind Shane Bieber had Tommy John surgery in April of 2024 and didn't come back until August of 2025.
00:37:14Maybe Cole will be back in April or May, or maybe he won't.
00:37:18They feel Schmidt will be in play the second half of the season.
00:37:22Maybe he won't.
00:37:25Maybe Hill's first half of 2024 was as good as it's ever getting.
00:37:30Rodon and Freed were really heavily used starters who never had an injury-less stint.
00:37:36Like, if you and I were gamblers, would we bet at least one or the other would be on the I.L. at some point next year after both getting up over 200 innings postseason included this year?
00:37:46So, I would protect myself a little more with one more starter, and yet that's a tough one because it's going to be hard to sell a starter on come here, you might never start.
00:37:57Yeah, it's a tough sell, but you get to be a part of a rotation where you can say, look, I mean, we're going for it all.
00:38:04You have a chance at a championship here.
00:38:05Unlike a lot of the other major league clubs, which doesn't feel like they're all in like the Yankees.
00:38:09The Yankees feel like they, under the best circumstances, they have a championship rotation available to them if they get to close to, let's say, over 80 percentile outcome and have some depth.
00:38:25Yeah.
00:38:25Where to absorb, in a way, you know, Ryan, they work a little bit of a baseball miracle this year.
00:38:31I spent an entire season saying this would be the problem.
00:38:35They're going to run out of starting pitching because that group of young starters wasn't close enough.
00:38:40And Schlittler and Warren provided an answer nobody could have seen coming.
00:38:45Nobody on March 27th would have thought, Will Warren's going to lead the major leagues in starts.
00:38:52Starts.
00:38:52Yeah.
00:38:53And no one thought that Max Freed and Carlos Rodon were going to stay healthy.
00:38:56200 inning guys and nobody saw Cam Schlittler coming as the guy who wanted the ball in his hand in October.
00:39:03So they had some real positive physical outcome that they should not assume next year.
00:39:10But if they get even good health from the rotation and good return dates, where do you sign up for?
00:39:20So June 1st for Cole as a full Cole and August 15th for a full Schmidt, like as nice little plug-ins along the way, then you don't need anything.
00:39:33But I would guard myself.
00:39:34I would get one.
00:39:35I would get one more.
00:39:36And I would be really aggressive on the minor league free agent.
00:39:41Like what's the best version of Alan Winans that's better than that?
00:39:45Like can I spend some money in that marketplace and get somebody to AAA who's a veteran, give them a June 1st opt-out and say,
00:39:53the June 1st opt-out makes sense because that's maybe when we get Cole back.
00:39:58You might get a lot of starts between then and June 1st, or you might pitch the whole year.
00:40:02Well, look, and also let's not forget, I mean, like you said, Cole was, they didn't have him at all.
00:40:06This past season, because that was such a big injury.
00:40:09So we can't say that wasn't total, you know, all luck and health for them.
00:40:13I mean, they lost their best pitcher and, but now they're going to get him back.
00:40:16But you, like you said, you don't know what version you're going to get to start.
00:40:18I do want to go back to the lineup real quick.
00:40:20So the, the levers, right?
00:40:21Like you always say the Yankees always have option a option B.
00:40:24They plan these things out.
00:40:26Let's say Cody Bellinger doesn't resign with the Yankees.
00:40:30Could they potentially, and I don't know, you would know this more than me.
00:40:34Let's say they don't believe in Dominguez long-term and they're like, you know what?
00:40:37We're seeing, he's not really a good fielder.
00:40:39We think the bat's there, but we just don't know if we can trust him in the outfield and
00:40:42we really have to go for it this year.
00:40:44Or they maybe say, Spencer Jones, this is the best you're going to see from him.
00:40:47He's not going to be a real major leaguer.
00:40:49Could they potentially trade for a right-handed outfield bat to be that power for them a little
00:40:54bit more?
00:40:55It's a name I'm going to throw out here.
00:40:56You're probably going to tell me I'm crazy.
00:40:57Taylor Ward from the Angels.
00:40:59Guy hits a ton of homers.
00:41:00Right-handed bat, slug.
00:41:02Could that be potential where the Yankees weigh an option in saying, we didn't get Bellinger,
00:41:07but we can go get a Taylor Ward as a rental who gives us power from the right-handed side
00:41:11of the plate and can help solidify that left field for us, hopefully.
00:41:15Yeah, I think Taylor Ward would be a Ryan Sampson nightmare if he was here because that's 30%
00:41:20strikeouts.
00:41:21Yeah.
00:41:21Which, again, against good pitching is what?
00:41:26I think that it's one of the reasons I would think seriously about trading Spencer Jones,
00:41:32which is you better be very, very confident that he can be Adam Dunn with defense, which
00:41:46maybe he could.
00:41:47That's a pretty high outcome.
00:41:48Yeah.
00:41:49But to me, he feeds into your, like, the best version of him is going to strike out probably
00:41:5330% of the time.
00:41:55Right.
00:41:55That's the best version of him.
00:41:57And the question is, do you want more of that in your lineup?
00:42:00If the exchange is 40 home runs and pretty good athleticism, bases, defense, sure, sure,
00:42:09you know, like you'll try to work around it.
00:42:10But the right-hand-hitting, high-end outfielder who's more unicorny like you're looking for,
00:42:17it's hard to find, man, because trust me, I keep looking for that guy.
00:42:22It would not be, to me, Taylor Ward is a three-and-a-half outfielder, not a one-to-three
00:42:26for a first division team.
00:42:28Okay.
00:42:28For the Angels, he's fine.
00:42:30Right.
00:42:30But I have a feeling if he's on your team, you're like, this guy's kind of a glorified
00:42:34third to three-and-a-half outfielder would be my suspicion.
00:42:38Because of strikeouts, the fact that he's not great on defense, he feels like the kind
00:42:43of guy you're always trying to do better than.
00:42:45I would say that if Jason Dominguez had signed for $2.1 million as an amateur and never been
00:42:56given a nickname, where you think he could arc would be fine.
00:43:01Because I think there is a 20-25 homer, 25-35 steal, 30-40 double player in him, which
00:43:14is, by the way, nicely above average.
00:43:17Like, if I told you he was going to be like an offensive version of, like, Brandon Nimmo,
00:43:22you'd go, wow.
00:43:23What a great internal—what if I called him the Martian?
00:43:26Oh, that wouldn't be good enough.
00:43:28So I feel like he's damned that they gave him their whole minor league finances one year,
00:43:33and he got called the Martian, and he was getting compared to Mickey Mantle.
00:43:36He's not going to be him.
00:43:38I thought he handled not playing well.
00:43:42I was—you know, I'm at every game, Ryan.
00:43:45He hooked himself onto Ahmad Rosario, who is a worker.
00:43:48And he was out with Ahmad Rosario early every day working when he wasn't playing.
00:43:55That would be very encouraging.
00:43:56I left with Yankee people telling me the plan is for him to go play winter ball in the Dominican
00:44:03and take a lot of reps in left and center.
00:44:06I—for his athleticism and what I think is a pretty good work ethic, there seems no reason
00:44:14why he should not be a major league average outfielder.
00:44:17Now, maybe there's just some people who are always going to read balls poorly
00:44:21and not read balls off the wall well and not have that great instinct what base to throw to.
00:44:27The Yankees have claimed one of the problems with him is he just hasn't had a lot of reps.
00:44:32Well, he should have been in winter ball last offseason.
00:44:35He certainly should be in winter ball this, and I mean play a lot.
00:44:39You're young.
00:44:40You're not going to show up on February or whatever tired.
00:44:43You'll take some weeks off.
00:44:44You'll be fine.
00:44:45He should go and get a lot of reps in the outfield.
00:44:49And because if he—if he could be major league average, I do think—I think he has a good eye.
00:44:58Like, this is not a guy who strikes out from the left side because—so him and Ryan McMahon have something in common.
00:45:05Both of them could read a ball.
00:45:08Yeah.
00:45:08Like, McMahon's problem is he swings at strikes and doesn't hit them.
00:45:13I actually think Dominguez hits the ball, hits it relatively hard, and that there is a 20-plus homer guy in him.
00:45:20We saw there is a 20-plus steel guy in him.
00:45:23He walked off the bench on that last day of the season without playing a lot and smoked a double against Toronto.
00:45:28There is a 750 OPS 2020 player there.
00:45:35For a million dollars, when you're trying to shove other guys who make a lot of money, that's really valuable if he's just major league average in left field.
00:45:45Major league average.
00:45:46Catch all the ones you should catch.
00:45:48Play the ball clean off the wall.
00:45:49Get the cutoff guy.
00:45:50Know what base to throw to.
00:45:51Can you—that is now a valuable player.
00:45:56And with a little chance to be better than that.
00:45:59Because he's so athletic.
00:46:00Because he's very athletic and there's real power and twitch in what he does.
00:46:06So I'm not quick to give up on him.
00:46:09He is not going to be the Martian.
00:46:11But he could be a very good major league player who plays left field and hits sixth every day.
00:46:18And you're like, he might have to give up switch hitting.
00:46:21I'm not sure that the right side ever plays for him again.
00:46:24Is this time?
00:46:25I would make sure he goes to win the ball and you tell his win-the-ball manager.
00:46:28They start a lefty, he's playing.
00:46:31He's got to get reps there.
00:46:33And so I think they have some advantage.
00:46:36I think he's going to play for the team that Luis Rojas used to run, the Yankee third base coach.
00:46:42So, like, I'm sure Luis can say, lots of innings in left, lots of innings in center.
00:46:47They start a lefty.
00:46:48You play this guy.
00:46:51So I wouldn't give up on him.
00:46:54I think there's an above-average player there.
00:46:58Forget that he was ever called the Martian.
00:47:00Okay.
00:47:01It's going to be hard for me to forget, but I'm going to try and think about that.
00:47:04So I do want to ask you before we finish up.
00:47:07Can you – this is just a little exercise.
00:47:10Can you give me three players, not named Trent Grishams, Luke Weavers of the world, the guys,
00:47:14Ted Williams, the guys who are already free agents, but can you give me three players
00:47:17that you think on this Yankees roster that could potentially not be on this roster next year
00:47:21that maybe work their way into a trade, they could, you know, whatever it could be?
00:47:26So I suspect Jazz Chisholm will be back, but I think you've got to test the marketplace
00:47:33because I think the chances of the Yankees signing him long-term, if not zero or close
00:47:41to zero, and if they're close to zero and he's entering his walk year.
00:47:45Like the Tigers, president of baseball operations, Scott Harris, and their manager, A.J. Hinch,
00:47:51listen or watch the podcast with Joel Sherman and John Heyman, A.J. Hinch is on with us.
00:47:56They had their end-of-year press conference as we speak yesterday on Monday,
00:48:00and of course they were asked, are you trading Tarek Skubel because he's entering his free agent year?
00:48:04If you're asking when a guy's entering his free agent year who's about to win back-back Cy Youngs
00:48:08because you don't think you could sign him, if you're thinking about trading Tarek Skubel,
00:48:11you could certainly think about trading Jazz Chisholm, okay?
00:48:16His value's never higher. It's a 30-30 season.
00:48:20But the value's low because it's only one year.
00:48:22It isn't like we've seen guys who have one year to free agency, their value goes way down,
00:48:27and the word's out on him a little bit, right?
00:48:29Like, is he playing to the scoreboard? Is he playing Jazz Chisholm Fantasy Camp?
00:48:35Like, what's going on as far as what's important to him?
00:48:39That being said, it's hard to replace 30-30.
00:48:42When he's fully engaged, he's a very good second baseman.
00:48:45So, like, my suspicion is he'll be back because the Yankees won't get the match right.
00:48:50But Brian Cashman might be under orders, hey, I'll re-sign Cody Bellinger,
00:48:55but we have to get to 275, and I'm sitting with the contracts.
00:48:59If we don't trade this guy, we ain't getting to 275 or 280 or whatever the number that Howell's going to want.
00:49:04And so I think he's in play.
00:49:07Would they listen?
00:49:08I think they'll listen on Spencer Jones and Dominguez.
00:49:11It's like that.
00:49:13My suspicion is they have a bunch of bullpen guys who they're going to non-tender come December.
00:49:21Mark Leiter Jr., Ian Hamilton, Scott Efros.
00:49:25So I assume before you non-tender them, you offer them around the league one more time.
00:49:29Is there somebody whose scouts were a AAA who were like, you know, the Yankees really botched Ian Hamilton.
00:49:36I think if he threw his fastball more, we could do something for a million dollars here.
00:49:41We should trade.
00:49:42So I realize how small penny that is, but I think they'll go around the league one more time and say, anybody like these guys before we potentially non-tender them.
00:49:54So I think there's that.
00:49:55I think there was probably a time in midseason if you made a good offer for Ben Rice, you know, I think that that's a much harder sell now that he showed what he could do.
00:50:09And the fact that he might be a middle of the order line, a middle of the lineup guy for a while.
00:50:15I'm not sure that that it's front burner.
00:50:18So to me, if you said I and the one other one I would think is in play.
00:50:25But again, I think you're selling him potentially low is Luis Hill.
00:50:30And I only say that because he doesn't have any options.
00:50:36And we were talking about what the Yankee upside rotation is.
00:50:40And unless you feel that Hill could go to the bullpen and help you, he becomes a guy who's like square in a round hole.
00:50:51Like, does he do it?
00:50:52I don't want to walk away from that the upside of him last year in 2024 was a guy probably good enough to make the all-star team and win rookie of the year.
00:51:03We've seen that.
00:51:04He has started postseason games for them in consecutive years.
00:51:09Do the Yankees believe the first half of 2024 was kind of as good as it's ever going to get?
00:51:15He's never going to get close to that again.
00:51:16But that could be the marketplace.
00:51:18Also, the thing you always have to watch, and I kind of tell fans all the time, is service time really matters.
00:51:27Options really matter.
00:51:29And the fact that Hill becomes a non-movable piece once the season begins, unless you're willing to lose him for nothing,
00:51:39he becomes an easier trade piece in the offseason because you say, okay, let's trade him.
00:51:45Now we'll definitely sign a starting pitcher.
00:51:48But we'll have removed the guy without options who hems us in from April through September if he doesn't pitch well.
00:51:58Because, like, Luis Hill gets off poorly next year.
00:52:01The first three starts are bad.
00:52:03It isn't like you say, well, we'll call up Will Warren from the minors or whatever, or that's the place we'll plug coal into because you can't send Hill to the minor leagues.
00:52:13Right.
00:52:13So part of – one of the things the Yankees, before the sport caught on, and so this was a place the Yankees were crafty.
00:52:22Like, I'm talking like 5, 10, 15 years ago is a lot of their July trades were guys who they were going to have to put on the 40-man roster.
00:52:33Now, they weren't the first to think of it, but, like, not every team did it.
00:52:38And so they would pick the team in the sport who they're like, this guy can't fit on our 40-man roster, but you're not very good.
00:52:46You can fit on your 40-man roster, so we're going to trade Jake Cave for Luis Hill.
00:52:51Yeah.
00:52:51Because Jake Cave isn't a 40-man roster guy for us, but he is for you, Minnesota Twins, or somebody like that, you know, who they've traded over the years.
00:53:00And so I think you always have to think about the flexibility of your team for a full season.
00:53:07And I'm not sure that Luis Hill works perfectly in that unless you think all he needs is an offseason to kind of get fully healthy,
00:53:17and he's going to show up as the guy who was 20-24 first half Luis Hill.
00:53:23If so, I mean, they'll have, like, five number one or two starters going round and round.
00:53:30The Yankees' strength, as we project forward, is lefty hitting, Aaron Judge, and the starting rotation.
00:53:39And yet there's a house of cards quality to that starting rotation also.
00:53:43It could be almost what the Dodgers are now, or it can—so I think it will be interesting.
00:53:52That's certainly interesting and a name to definitely pay attention to as the offseason progresses.
00:53:55Just because he's out of options.
00:53:56Yeah.
00:53:56It's not about—but he also just didn't have a very—
00:53:59He didn't have a healthy year or pitch nearly as well.
00:54:03This fastball was down, I think, a little bit.
00:54:05So I just don't think they'll get enough.
00:54:07Like, I would suspect they trade none of these guys.
00:54:10No, but—
00:54:10Like, I think Jazz Chisholm will be on the team next year.
00:54:12I think Luis Hill will be on the team next year.
00:54:14I think Spencer Jones will be in their minor league system.
00:54:17But if you told me at the GM meetings in about two and a half weeks or at the winter meetings at the beginning of December,
00:54:27hey, there's starting to be a lot of smoke and fire around Jazz or smoke and fire around Luis Hill or smoke and fire around Spencer Jones,
00:54:35I would understand why based on how the Yankees are currently constructed to go into next season.
00:54:43It's—
00:54:43And Joe—I'm sorry to cut you off, Ryan.
00:54:46No, it's okay.
00:54:46And, of course, Jones becomes easier to trade if you re-sign Bellinger.
00:54:49Correct.
00:54:49And that's also, like, again, part of that lever.
00:54:52Yes.
00:54:52Like, how they're going to put this whole thing together.
00:54:55And or Grisham accepts the qualifying offer.
00:54:58Will you think they're going to offer him the qualifying offer?
00:55:00I think it's very much a 50-50 thing.
00:55:02I wrote this in the post is I think one of the things—
00:55:06And I do think the Yankees have a very good baseball operations department, and I'm sure they're doing this.
00:55:11The qualifying offer is about $22 million.
00:55:14If he says yes to it, he's a signed player for one year at $22 million.
00:55:20That's it.
00:55:21Right?
00:55:21If he says no, he's a free agent, and the Yankees get, like, about a fourth-round draft choice in 2026, in July of 2026.
00:55:28The one thing I would make sure before giving him the qualifying offer is I don't want to have him and Bellinger on the team.
00:55:36But I have to make a decision on him before I know about Bellinger.
00:55:40I would make sure—I would call every team and say, if we have this player at $22 million, can we trade him to you?
00:55:49And the example I used in the paper—and I'm not reporting that this is—I'm using this as an example of something.
00:55:55The Royals are desperately trying to add offense around Bobby Witt Jr.
00:56:00Desperate to do it.
00:56:02Would they trade Carlos Estevez, their closer, who's making $13 million, and think of it as they're spending $9 million on Trent Grisham?
00:56:12The Yankees are saving $9 million the other way if they do this.
00:56:15Plus adding another guy to pitch late with Bednar, Cruz.
00:56:18Like, that's almost a perfect trade for the Yankees if they got Bellinger back, right?
00:56:22Because you would say, wow, like you'd really like that bullpen all of a sudden.
00:56:27It would, like, move up a notch where you say it's Bednar could close games.
00:56:31Duvall could close games.
00:56:32Estevez could close games.
00:56:34Certainly those three, plus Cruz, plus Hill, now you're at five.
00:56:38That you're pretty comfortable for the last nine outs of the game.
00:56:42Now you go out and make another, like, see if you can find that lefty in the free agent market or in the trade market.
00:56:47A second lefty you like kind of thing.
00:56:49And you suddenly have a good bullpen again.
00:56:51So, like, I use that as an example that the Yankees right now have to be investigating where they could trade a $22 million Trent Grisham.
00:57:01Like, can we take on this player who makes 10 or this player who makes 15?
00:57:05Or if we ate five of it, could we get access to this player?
00:57:09If we ate eight of it, can we get access?
00:57:10Because for us, that player is worth $8 million plus his salary.
00:57:13So, I think one of the things that I'm sure they're doing, because they're good at their job, is that.
00:57:20Which is, if we qualify this player, can we trade him in the offseason?
00:57:26Because we'll keep him if Bellinger doesn't come back, because he's the starting center fielder then,
00:57:31and hope he's, that 2025 wasn't a mirage and he can pop another 30 homers and lead off and all that stuff.
00:57:38But, I don't think you want Bellinger and him.
00:57:43So, I think you'll have to know that you can, if Bellinger comes back, is he a tradable player?
00:57:48If he is, I think you qualify him.
00:57:50Yeah, and I also think...
00:57:51So, you have to do two things at once.
00:57:52You have to do two things at once, and also at the same time, if you brought both of them back,
00:57:55you would be putting Dominguez in a tough spot.
00:57:57The guy that you would hope that, you know, can start every day for you.
00:58:00Like, I think that Dominguez, off of this season, which wasn't great, but wasn't awful,
00:58:07now deserves a chance to get the first 300 plate appearances of next season to say,
00:58:14like, what happened at Winter Ball?
00:58:17Who are you?
00:58:18Yeah.
00:58:18To begin to kind of get that.
00:58:20I think he showed enough to earn that.
00:58:22Yeah.
00:58:23Like, again, you just got to forget he was ever the Martian.
00:58:26So, as we wrap up here, Joel, it feels like a year ago, we were in such a different place
00:58:32because it was all about how are the Yankees going to handle, can they re-sign Juan Soto,
00:58:36are they going to pivot off Juan Soto, ended up, he went to the Mets, they pivoted brilliantly,
00:58:40I would say, off the Juan Soto, you know, leaving the team.
00:58:44Now we're in this space where the Yankees go into, it feels like a little bit of a quieter offseason,
00:58:49it's all going to be what happens with Cody Bellinger, that's the surrounding piece,
00:58:53and then a lot of the moves will go off of that, but it wouldn't surprise me
00:58:55if they were a little more aggressive before the Bellinger stuff happens.
00:58:59For you, and you're going into this time, the World Series hasn't happened yet,
00:59:03what is this like for this period here as you're covering baseball
00:59:07and we're still before the GM meetings and the World Series isn't finished yet,
00:59:12what's this like for you in this time with all the information that could be coming in and out of you?
00:59:15Yeah, so, you know, lots of texts, lots of phone calls, you know, you're like we're in an interesting period.
00:59:22There are going to be 10 managerial changes, minimum, this offseason.
00:59:27Two of them have already happened.
00:59:28John Kelly staying in Pitzer.
00:59:30Schlitt retired, but Skip Schumacher is back.
00:59:36Look, the Yankees haven't officially announced that Aaron Boone's back.
00:59:38I'm sure they're going to next week.
00:59:40Brian Cashman, I think, is going to talk to, you know, do a public press conference.
00:59:43Would that be worth an announcement even though he's under contract?
00:59:46I think that these are the Yankees, like they used to have to announce Joe Torre is coming back every year
00:59:51and he won four World Series.
00:59:52So these being the Yankees, I think that they'll announce the obvious that he's back, etc.
01:00:00I think Brian will probably give up very few of the cards in his hands when he does it.
01:00:05But, like, you know, you're calling.
01:00:07My job is to try to figure out what the cards in his hands are of how he's likely to play it.
01:00:10But it's an interesting time of year.
01:00:13There's the backdrop of the collective bargaining agreement ending December of 2026
01:00:22and the fear of a long lockout and it impacting the 2027 season is on a lot of people's minds.
01:00:32Is this a year you really go for it because you have no idea?
01:00:36Is it a year you don't?
01:00:36Like, again, one of the reasons I think that Hal is going to begin to bring down the payroll
01:00:41is he believes very strongly that there'll either be a salary cap
01:00:47or there'll be even more punitive taxes.
01:00:52Right?
01:00:52Like, it feels almost impossible that there won't be one or the other.
01:00:57And so if you're not beginning the process of bringing down your payroll,
01:01:01it's going to be very hard to get to whatever salary cap numbers.
01:01:04Now, I'm sure there's going to be grandfathering for a certain team.
01:01:07Like, how would the Dodgers get to say if the number were, like, the most you could have is $250 million.
01:01:12The Dodgers are $150 million over that right now.
01:01:15Like, you have to have a grandfathering period to allow teams to get down to a certain number.
01:01:21But I think that that part, like, that is weighing on everybody's thought process.
01:01:26Every executive I talk to now says, we're trying to figure out what it means.
01:01:30And who wins the World Series?
01:01:34Who gets the World Series?
01:01:35Like, if the Brewers get to the World Series, like, will that make more teams say,
01:01:40hey, we need to emphasize ball and play, defense?
01:01:44If the Blue Jays get there, will that move people to say ball and play, defense?
01:01:48If the Dodgers get there, will that have everyone screaming, we need a salary cap?
01:01:52Otherwise, so there's some stuff that's going to be flowing over the next weeks and months.
01:01:58I think that the Yankees really are Cody Bellinger re-signing away from being in a very comfortable position to make decisions.
01:02:09Where they're not, like, if Cody Bellinger doesn't come back, they have to fix the team in a lot of different ways.
01:02:16If Cody Bellinger comes back, they could be opportunistic and fix at the margins.
01:02:24That is two different places.
01:02:27And if you think Scott Boris doesn't know that, then you haven't paid attention to baseball for the last three-plus decades.
01:02:33So he understands what, he'll understand what this player means in not just strict value, but in the ability to operate in a level of,
01:02:46he could play first, he could play the outfield.
01:02:48Having him allows us now to, we could literally line up today and have a team.
01:02:53It's not the team we're going to have, we still want to do better, but we could line up and feel like we have a very good baseball team moving forward.
01:03:02It's a really important chip for them.
01:03:04Fascinating.
01:03:05It really is fascinating.
01:03:06Joel Sherman, you're two, we're done here with Pinstripe Post.
01:03:10I can't thank you enough for coming on here and doing this with us every single time.
01:03:15Your information and insight's awesome.
01:03:17A lot of fans appreciate it.
01:03:18But this is going to be, again, something that fans, they're going to be talking about all offseason.
01:03:23What do the Yankees do?
01:03:24Do they bring back Bellinger?
01:03:25What's their pivot around that?
01:03:27What are the margin moves they can make?
01:03:29But also at the same time, we appreciate you always coming on here and sharing all that knowledge.
01:03:33I appreciate that we really, like it is, everyone knows the media market, who cares to know, is a tough landscape now for breaking through
01:03:43and making some dent and trying to where your voice or your written word has some imprint.
01:03:49And you're always kind enough to tell me numbers and stuff, and I know our numbers are going up.
01:03:54And so I can't, you thank me, I thank them for watching because it doesn't make any sense to put your butt in the chair unless people do that.
01:04:02So Ryan and I are so appreciative of everyone doing it.
01:04:05If you like what we do, tell a friend to join us on the rocket ship wherever we're going.
01:04:11Well said. That's Joel Sherman.
01:04:13We'll talk to you soon, I'm sure, as, again, we'll see what Brian Cashman announced next week
01:04:18as they bring back Aaron Boone and where they go from there.
01:04:21But as always, man, we'll catch you next time.
01:04:23Thanks, Ryan.
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