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00:00Let's get saucy about Saturday, people.
00:02The college football playoff, it is set.
00:04But the fact of the matter is, how did we get here?
00:07Because Joe and I have been talking all college football season,
00:09good teams, bad teams, what we think is going to happen.
00:12Now, understand this.
00:14There is a television show, which if anybody follows me on X,
00:16I bash it every single year.
00:19It's the most meaningless show you can possibly have on a week-to-week basis,
00:22understanding the games on the field are going to take care of businesses.
00:25It doesn't matter where you're ranked here.
00:27So the fact of the matter is that everybody called this from the first television show.
00:31Head-to-head has to matter.
00:33If Notre Dame and Miami get close, that's going to be very interesting
00:36if they keep Notre Dame above, which basically all of those television shows
00:39outside of the previous one, they kept Notre Dame at the top of the standings above Miami.
00:45But the question you want to filter in, is anybody going to get snubbed?
00:48Is chaos going to happen?
00:49And to be honest, Joe, the past two weeks, we had no chaos.
00:52Outside of like Texas beating A&M, which A&M was already in the championship,
00:55and you probably thought a three-loss Texas team was going to be left out.
00:59But let's go over what happened on Saturday in chronological order.
01:02A 12 o'clock kickoff was BYU and Texas Tech.
01:06Here's what we knew.
01:07Texas Tech was going to be in no matter what.
01:09But the question was, is if BYU won, they're going to be in,
01:13which would kick somebody out.
01:14The only thing that BYU was maybe hoping for, Joe, if they lost, was a close loss.
01:18They got hammered 34-7 in that game.
01:22When you watch that game play out, it just felt to me, Joe,
01:25that the BYU getting beat by that bad, they were out of the college football playoff.
01:30And I think everybody knew because it was the largest spread of all of them, Donnie, right?
01:35I mean, it closed 12 and a half, 13, and we just knew.
01:39I mean, they were outclassed against Texas Tech, and everybody knew it,
01:42including the committee, which is why they sandwiched them where they sandwiched them
01:47between Notre Dame and Florida, because once they lost,
01:51you knew they were going to be out, and that was the end of it.
01:54And that's exactly what happened.
01:56I mean, Texas Tech, we've been saying it now for weeks,
01:59yet this team is taking no prisoners.
02:01They are every bit as talented as anybody else in this field,
02:06and they showed you exactly why.
02:08You've got to be taking them very seriously when it comes to the playoff.
02:11Absolutely, and we're going to get to some details there
02:14on what we think of Texas Tech and also why BYU was eventually left
02:17out of the college football playoff.
02:18Let's move it down now to the SEC championship game,
02:21which all eyes were on the prize.
02:22The question was, we knew Georgia was going to be in.
02:25The thing was, with Alabama getting moved up,
02:27it looked like there was a buffer for no matter what happened to Alabama.
02:30If they lost, particularly by two touchdowns or less,
02:33they probably would be in the tournament no matter what.
02:36They got hammered.
02:37They got embarrassed.
02:38And 28-7, Joe, didn't even tell the total tale of this game.
02:41It was Georgia in an absolute rout.
02:44So the thoughts from me on Saturday night,
02:46there's no way they can put Alabama in.
02:49What did you get out of that football game,
02:50and what were your thoughts when it ended, Joe?
02:53Well, I mean, it was clearly all Georgia there.
02:57I mean, Georgia had struggled with Alabama in years past,
03:00but it's clear that this Alabama team is not what they were
03:05in the middle of the season.
03:06Some teams get better, Donnie, and then some teams, you know,
03:10injuries start to take their toll, and they become progressively worse.
03:14And you look down the back end of the schedule here with Alabama,
03:18they have not been playing well.
03:20I mean, beating an awful Auburn team because it's a rivalry game.
03:25I mean, getting blown out by three touchdowns,
03:28and you remain in exactly the same spot as you did a week ago,
03:31makes little to no sense.
03:33And then we head on again and say, all right, well, Georgia's going to be in.
03:36Can they get a number two seed?
03:37We'll get to the seeding in just a few moments.
03:39But we had the Big Ten championship game,
03:41which technically didn't mean a lot, but I was using it as a measuring stick.
03:44How good is Ohio State?
03:45They didn't play a great schedule.
03:47How good is Indiana?
03:47They didn't play a great schedule.
03:4913 to 10, extremely low scoring.
03:51But this gave you a glimpse that Indiana is for real.
03:54I didn't think they were particularly great on offense.
03:56Why?
03:56Because Ohio State is a great defense.
03:57But the same thing with Ohio State.
03:59I think more people were saying, like, you know what?
04:00What are we getting defensively out of Indiana?
04:02They were tremendous in that football game.
04:0513 to 10, the number one overall seed, Joe.
04:08Indiana got it, and they deserved it as they head towards the playoffs.
04:12I'm not buying it, though, Donnie.
04:15There is something tells me that there is that playbook was not emptied for Ryan Day and Ohio State.
04:23That maybe, just maybe, this was a good opportunity to see what this Indiana team is all about.
04:30But if there is a rematch, and there likely will be in the postseason here in the playoff coming up, I don't think you'll recognize that Ohio State team like they looked in the first game.
04:40And then the chaos we wanted here, because it just felt like, too, if you were rooting for Miami to get in or a Miami backer, you said you can't leave a Power 5 champion out, or you can't leave a Power 5 conference out of this year.
04:52And then you take a look at a Power 4 conference, and you say to yourself, well, if Duke beats Virginia, Duke is not going to get in.
04:57Then the ACC doesn't have a representative.
04:59When you know the ACC pays a lot of bills for ESPN and also the college football playoff, Duke 27-20 in overtime, you knew that was going to happen, Joe.
05:09You knew it.
05:10We were hoping for it, Donnie, because that's what created the chaos right there.
05:15And now, congratulations.
05:17Enjoy it, College Football Committee.
05:19We are just touching the surface of this.
05:22Come on back with us.
05:23Let's get it popping.
05:25All right.
05:25Yesterday at 12 o'clock noon, there was a college football show.
05:29And by the way, it took way too long getting to the actual seatings themselves.
05:32You're supposed to give us what it is, then talk for the next three hours on how it turned out.
05:36But the question was going to be, of course, who's in, who's out?
05:38We knew the top eight that were in, and Oklahoma would fall into that eighth spot.
05:42But then the questions would be, who's nine, who's 10, who's 11, who's 12, and so forth.
05:48And we also thought Duke wasn't getting in, so two G5s could get in, and they did.
05:52But the question centered on Joe, which we like to watch, and sometimes I have faith in humanity.
05:57I thought Florida State never should have been in the college football playoff, and they proved us right by getting beat by 60 points by Georgia.
06:02That team was dead and buried.
06:03They couldn't move the football.
06:04They weren't one of the best four teams in the country if you lost your quarterback.
06:07A lot of times have changed because you have more teams in the playoff, and if Florida State played in a 12-team playoff, they would have made it there.
06:13But they weren't good enough to be in the top four, and they proved that in the bowl game by getting embarrassed.
06:16And their team, quite frankly, in university, has never recovered as they continue to embarrass themselves.
06:21Side point here.
06:22Let's get to what happened yesterday on that show, because when you're correlating market show, which we love to do, it's good to see that when everything came down, Vegas, FanDuel, DraftKings, they were all wrong.
06:35Right up until the show, you watch some of the numbers go, Joe.
06:39Miami was as low as, let's just call it a plus 130 to make the college football playoff.
06:42And within minutes, 15 minutes, 10 minutes, five minutes before that show kicked off, Miami's odds got progressively worse.
06:49So I'm tweeting out, this is probably not a good look for Miami, they're probably out.
06:52Somebody knows already, the graphics guy knows.
06:55You even had, Joe, because I know you were watching, Joey Galloway, opening up that thing when they threw it to him on the show, basically told you, Miami is out.
07:04So I'm like, wow, he just tipped it right there at this point.
07:07Notre Dame was a minus 3,000 to make the college football playoff before that show began.
07:14Notre Dame ended up getting left out, Joe.
07:16So before we go to the seedings and what was right and wrong, how did you feel about the odds shifting here before that show?
07:22And we actually got totally shocked.
07:25I don't know that, I wasn't shocked that Miami got it.
07:29And here's why I wasn't shocked.
07:31Because of that last show and how ridiculous it was that they moved Alabama up to nine and they sandwiched BYU.
07:40All Miami did was go and beat a top 25 team, pulverized them in a place they couldn't win, right, Donny, because Miami can't win in 30 degrees.
07:50Oh, my goodness, Pitt's going to – yeah, how did that work?
07:53They beat them worse than Notre Dame beat them.
07:57And yet they landed exactly the same spot that they – it sunk altogether from the last one.
08:05They were looking for a reason and covering their own you-know-what, right?
08:09CYA is what that committee was doing because they had a feeling that, hey, listen, if BYU beats Texas Tech, we don't have to have this argument BYU is in, right?
08:19But if BYU is to lose and the unthinkable happens, well, we'll always have to head-to-head with Miami against Indiana.
08:26There's no way to dispel the head-to-head if it came down to it.
08:31It always had to be Miami.
08:32As much as they love Notre Dame and Notre Dame is the cash cow, if it came down to Miami one spot between Miami and Notre Dame,
08:41there is no reasonable explanation that Miami, since they had the head-to-head win, should not have been in.
08:48And ultimately, the way it all fell down, that's ultimately what it came down to.
08:53Exactly.
08:53And the only way, Joe, that we got in trouble as watching that show was because they weren't giving you proper explanations.
09:00But as Joe points out, he is 1,000% correct.
09:03The fact that they pushed Alabama above Notre Dame, you knew what was going to happen.
09:07And sometimes you sort of play into it because you have to have an operation structure that is going to last for 15 years in the college football playoff.
09:16The one thing we do know, Joe, is when two teams play side-by-side and are equal, you always give the tiebreaker to the head-to-head opponent that won.
09:24Can you imagine a thought process with this weekend that would have had everything play out the same and Notre Dame made it in over Miami?
09:31Because that would have sent Richter scale absolute shocks through the next 10 years because you know what that would have done?
09:37Oh, hey, Florida State-Miami played, Florida State won.
09:40That doesn't mean anything.
09:41Like, we're just going to wait until the end of the season and strength of schedule is the only thing that matters.
09:45Because head-to-head, if you want to say, Joe, is the most meaningful tiebreaker you could possibly have where you don't need an eye test.
09:53You don't need strength of schedule.
09:54You just have to look at the final score and say, who won?
09:57Not who gained more yards, who won that game, and who moved past it here.
10:00And, of course, the old structure of, well, we want the best team that's playing now.
10:04That doesn't make any sense.
10:05The season is continuous.
10:07And we understand late losses do count more than early losses.
10:10But you know what they never erased, Joe?
10:12A head-to-head loss.
10:14If Miami, or excuse me, Notre Dame would have lost to A&M and USC the first two games, then beat Miami in week four, there's no issues here.
10:22Two losses, and they beat Miami.
10:24They move forward.
10:24But the interesting part here going forward, Joe, also, was the thing that most people are getting upset by, and maybe rightfully so,
10:32BYU playing in the game.
10:33They got hammered twice by Texas Tech, who's really damn good.
10:37They dropped.
10:38Alabama got destroyed in their football game.
10:41They stayed the same.
10:43That was actually shocking to me, Joe.
10:46That was when you knew Miami was in and Notre Dame was out.
10:50The minute they flashed Alabama at number nine, again, that was it.
10:55It was over.
10:56Because the only question was, and what everyone was assuming, was that because of that epic beatdown and how bad Alabama looked, and not just against Georgia,
11:07but we've never had a three-loss team in this college football playoff, right?
11:11We've never seen this before.
11:13And it's not like, hey, they were amazing, and they had one bad game against Georgia.
11:20No.
11:21They have been leaking oil for a month now, and they were not good, and they got exposed again, and they stayed exactly the same.
11:29Because the question should have been, all right, so Alabama jumped Notre Dame for what reason?
11:35We still don't know.
11:36And then Notre Dame dropped back.
11:38If Notre Dame should have showed up at nine, and then I'm like, Notre Dame and Miami are in, Alabama showing up at nine means the committee had no choice at that point,
11:47but they used a head-to-head, and you knew Miami was getting it.
11:51It's great.
11:51Again, the way it played out, I was shocked when I saw the 10th team up there in Miami just by looking at the odds and what the market was actually resetting.
11:57But also, when we talk about controversy heading into it, Joe, we shouldn't have that much controversy because for weeks,
12:03and if you follow my timeline or most people's timeline, and also, you saw the catcalls all games long on Saturday from each and every telecast and broadcast.
12:11They were telling you the same exact things.
12:14Like, hey, look, Miami is going to wind up next to Notre Dame, and they won.
12:17You can't just say that game was early in the season, and it doesn't matter, and what's late.
12:21And it's also not like Notre Dame beat four straight SEC teams to end the season.
12:26They didn't do that.
12:27So for me, I thought it was easy.
12:28And for the people being upset, like Notre Dame got left out, I actually thought Notre Dame probably should be in over Alabama.
12:33But now, Joe, turning it into the future, what do these actual college football championship games mean for your conferences?
12:41Apparently nothing.
12:42You have to come out with a structure that says, Joe, in these college football meetings where they come out with a television show,
12:47like this game that they play is a complete bonus.
12:50The winner's going to get rewarded.
12:51The loser will not drop.
12:53And the fact that it's sort of ambiguous, like, oh, we don't know if it counts, or how much does this one count,
12:57or how much can you lose in this?
12:58Because what I always thought was funny was, well, if they just be competitive in this game,
13:02well, then why are you playing the game?
13:03Just take a knee and don't even play the football game and say, we're opting out because we just want to make the college football playoff.
13:09Where does this lead, Joe, down the line for college football championship games in their own conferences?
13:15Blow it up, Donnie.
13:16It's got to be blown up.
13:17Because they keep putting Band-Aids on heart surgery.
13:21They do.
13:21And they keep thinking that that's going to be good to go.
13:24They are, instead of being proactive, they're being reactive.
13:28They did it last year.
13:30They're doing it again this year.
13:32They're opting for the money.
13:34They're hoping this all works out in the end so they don't have to take any criticism.
13:40But this was the ultimate doomsday scenario, what played out for them.
13:44And now it has exposed what we all knew, that none of it matters.
13:48You have created a system where the only thing that matters to these teams is making it to the playoffs here.
13:55And Vanderbilt and Texas are on the outside looking in.
14:00Donnie, to have the 12 best teams in the country supposedly playing for a national championship,
14:05we should not have a spread in any one of these games more than a touchdown.
14:10Not one should be more than a touchdown.
14:13Because if Vandy replaced JMU and Texas replaced Tulane, none of these games are more than a touchdown.
14:21Instead, you have just given Oregon and Ole Miss a bye, even though they didn't deserve it.
14:27It was like Penn State last year.
14:29Like Penn State, they were all so close.
14:31No, they weren't.
14:31They just got the luck of the draw and the two easiest games you could possibly have to open up the college football playoff last year.
14:37We're getting close to perfection.
14:38Seems like we're never going to get there.
14:40Ask the public.
14:41We'll do a better job than the committee and the NCAA every single time.
14:46Predictive markets are fun.
14:47Calcene markets are fun.
14:48Let's have some fun here on a Monday and get to some of those bigger topics, Joe.
14:52On Saturday, myself and Joe Lisi, we talked about these Calcene markets.
14:55And when did you want to buy in on the college football playoff winner?
14:59Joe's been very high here on Georgia.
15:01So we were asking the question, before that SEC championship game, if you want Georgia, take them.
15:06If you're going to win that game, they'll improve their standings.
15:08And also, on the overall look and the eyeball test, they would pass it, Joe.
15:13It just turns out they're up 6% on their chance since that game on Saturday to 18%.
15:19Now, the question was going to be, how impressive is Ohio State-Indiana?
15:23And, Joe, as we know, it's when you buy in.
15:25Do you buy the dip?
15:26Because Ohio State is in a little bit of a dip right now.
15:29They're down 7% on their chance.
15:31A live look is at 31% to win the college football championship.
15:36A $100 wager, Joe, would return $323.
15:40Ohio State, are you buying the dip, Joe, here?
15:44Oh, yes, absolutely.
15:46And, again, I still don't think what you got with them against Indiana,
15:52because this current system doesn't really reward a Big Ten championship, does it, Donnie?
15:58It was clear that that game meant everything to Indiana,
16:02and Ryan Day and Ohio State were like, yeah, okay, let's just see exactly what we've got here.
16:08What we've got is the team won a game with 13 points,
16:11and they needed a chip shot field goal to go wide right in order for them not to go to overtime
16:17and have a chance to lose that game.
16:19So I think there's another gear here for Ohio State.
16:24So the fact that I can get them at this price now, yeah, I'm willing to go,
16:29because ultimately I believe defense is going to win a championship,
16:33and nobody's got a better one than Ohio State.
16:35It's funny because, again, you're buying a little bit lower than Ohio State,
16:39not really a referendum game because it didn't answer a lot of questions either side.
16:43You knew Ohio State had a really good defense.
16:45Their offense didn't play that well.
16:46You knew they were both in it.
16:47So if you lost it, it wasn't that big of a deal.
16:49But if we are looking a little bit down, Joe, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon,
16:54because I know Texas Tech is starting to open up a lot of people's eyes.
16:57A&M and Miami, they're going to tee it up in their first-round game,
16:595% chance for A&M, 4% chance for Miami.
17:03Some of the lower teams, Joe, because the one that does give me a little bit of intrigue,
17:08it's Oklahoma.
17:09And people say, well, Oklahoma's offense stinks.
17:11Their defense is tremendous.
17:12And Joe just said, like, defense is going to win championships here.
17:15A $100 wager on Oklahoma pays back $3,300.
17:18And they have a home game right off the bat in the college football playoff to start.
17:23Anybody down the list, Joe, that you feel if you buy in, and also we're talking about this,
17:28they don't have to win the championship for you to make a profit.
17:31So if you buy Oklahoma to win one playoff game, their number's going to increase.
17:36And a stock market strategy like Calci in the predictive market,
17:38you can cash out after they win one game and put profit in your pocket, Joe.
17:42Well, that's the whole thing, Donnie, right?
17:44I don't need to wait for the outcome in order to make money on it.
17:49And that's what you got to love about it.
17:51And listen, to me, I think there is one team that has a legit shot at actually taking it all down.
17:57And that is Texas Tech.
17:59And I think that now would be the time.
18:01You know, the good part about backing Texas Tech right now, Donnie,
18:05is the simple fact that they will be out of sight, out of mind,
18:09because they're not going to play a game here the first go around, right?
18:12So kind of out of sight, out of mind, they'll move on.
18:15But boy, oh boy, I think that the minute they get one win under their belt here,
18:23this is a number you got to jump on early if you hadn't jumped on it already.
18:27And who are we kidding, Donnie?
18:29The U is going to steamroll Texas A&M,
18:32and then you're not going to get them at a better price than you are right now.
18:36So if you want to look for a team playing this week or in the next week and a half,
18:42go ahead and back to University of Miami to get it done.
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