00:00The first of China's two sessions political meetings got underway in Beijing this morning.
00:04The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a political advisory body,
00:09convenes today, followed by the National People's Congress tomorrow.
00:12The bodies are a rubber-stamp parliament which do not show deviation from the government line.
00:18This year's event is not expected to be anything out of the ordinary,
00:21but the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, a key Chinese ally,
00:25is casting its shadow on the gathering.
00:27And for more on the Chinese two sessions, I can welcome Jean-Francois Demelieu,
00:31Honorary Chair at the Asia Center and Professor at Paris-Dauphine University
00:35and the Public School of International Affairs in Paris.
00:38Good morning, Mr. Demelieu, and thank you very much for joining us.
00:41Can I start by asking you to tell us what the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference is?
00:49Well, as we know, it's a yearly conference.
00:53So many decisions are supposed to be taken in just one week.
01:00That being said, you have 3,000 people gathering at the National Assembly
01:06and another 2,000 people at the consultative conference.
01:10But you have many more people in town.
01:13And that's the moment in China where, on top of the official decisions,
01:19many people talk about many, many other things which are of concern for them,
01:24and especially local policies and the global situation in China.
01:31And what can we expect to come out of this year's conference?
01:35I mean, it's generally not very, very different from what the government does,
01:39but are there anything that maybe some analysts are expecting?
01:43China is a turnaround in terms of demographics and economy.
01:50Usually, the press conference first, and then the prime minister's speech
01:57talk about the growth rate.
02:00Growth rate is supposed to be around 5%,
02:03and it's supposed to be set during the conference.
02:08Since a couple of years, the mention was just around 5%.
02:13You remember that a few years ago, it was about 8%, 7%, 6%.
02:19So 5% is considered as quite low,
02:21but it's totally consistent with Chinese demographics.
02:25And the slowdown in consumption,
02:29and of course, the collapse of real estate market.
02:31So there is a challenge for the prime minister in terms of growth.
02:38If China wants to keep it in terms of GDP,
02:43not GDP per capita, but gross GDP over the next 10 years,
02:47it has to sustain a rate of 4.17% every year.
02:53The fact that the demography is going down,
02:56the fact that the economy is slowing down as well,
02:59is a challenge.
03:00Now we also have the five-year plan.
03:03The five-year plan is supposed to be also rubber-stamped,
03:06as you said, for the next five years.
03:09And this is about innovation mostly.
03:12This is a key point in Chinese development.
03:15China is betting a lot on new technologies.
03:18It achieved a lot in the last five years,
03:20in the last 10 years with the 2025 plan,
03:24which was a 10-year plan in terms of innovation.
03:27But there is still a lot to achieve for that innovation economy
03:31to drag up the growth rate in China.
03:35Now, the two sessions are unlikely to openly address the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
03:41But is it fair to say that its presence will be felt?
03:45Usually, the Assembly, the National People's Congress is focused on domestic policies.
03:52Of course, as I said, with so many people in town,
03:56so high stakes in the world with an impact for China.
04:00On top of this, the turmoil in the army,
04:05because as late as yesterday,
04:08there were again two retired generals dismissed
04:12after the various rounds of dismissals in the army.
04:18So the geopolitical situation is, of course, unsettled by the Iran conflict.
04:23And China and Iran have a strategic union.
04:33So China has a very difficult decision to take
04:38as about expressing more than just concern,
04:43expressing support to Iran, which is not yet the case,
04:47or just watching for things to happen
04:50and prepare for possibly the next government in Iran.
04:54Now, China is highly unlikely to intervene militarily on behalf of Iran.
05:00It doesn't have a mutual defense pact, for instance.
05:03But do you think it might provide any other type of support to Tehran?
05:07Well, China is, in terms of international crisis,
05:15not taking as high a stance as its geopolitical importance
05:19and the GDP important should be.
05:23In a way, China's geopolitical status, of course, is quite important.
05:30Its footprint is quite important.
05:33However, China's voice is not as loud and as influential
05:41as should supposed to be,
05:42except in what used to be called Global South.
05:46If you now look at what's happening in Iran,
05:50which is supposed to belong to Global South,
05:52which is belonging to the BRICS,
05:54to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,
05:57you can see that China is, in a way,
05:59impeached by lots of weaknesses in terms of international relations,
06:04as opposed to, I would say, to what common sense would dictate.
06:08Now, China is the largest importer of oil from Iran,
06:13and this is obviously something that there will be a chokehold on
06:17if this war continues.
06:19How might that actually play out in Beijing?
06:24What might the consequences be?
06:26Of course, contingency plans exist everywhere.
06:31We do have contingency plans in Europe,
06:33and in China, there's no question about contingency plans existing.
06:39So, the common knowledge says that they, just like us,
06:44have three months of strategic reserves
06:47to look forward in terms of energy security.
06:54Of course, Iran is selling 80% of its production to China
07:01because of the various embargoes.
07:03For China, it's asymmetrical.
07:05China has always been very cautious to diversify its sources of oil.
07:10But still, 20% represents quite a lot for China.
07:15So, I'm sure that currently, there is a lot of thinking in China
07:19about how to replace this source of oil.
07:24We have to remember that in this big game plan by the US,
07:32it's very interesting that Venezuela was first struck.
07:35Now, it's Iran.
07:37And you can maybe wonder whether behind the attack on Iran,
07:43there is also another plan,
07:47kind of strangling China's imports of oil,
07:51knowing that, of course, China is extremely depending on oil from everywhere.
07:56And, of course, this is a hit on China's growth.
07:59So, you may think of a potential game plan by the US
08:03to circle around China's exporters of oil
08:09and look at what's happening for China in terms of growth
08:13if China has problems sourcing its energy.
08:17Now, with regard to the United States,
08:19do you think that China is perhaps a little bit reluctant
08:23to go up against Washington
08:25when we've just seen a thorn in relations between the two governments?
08:30There will be a meeting, supposedly, by the end of March
08:34between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
08:37So, at the current stage and before the Iran crisis,
08:42the trend was rather to find areas of potential agreements.
08:49Of course, the trade war is still on.
08:51There's no question about the trade war being still on.
08:53But there is an aberrant will to reopen the discussion.
08:59And as we speak, and in preparation for the late March meeting,
09:04there are some preparatory meetings between US and China.
09:07So, it's not a G2.
09:09It's not an agreement on a lot of things.
09:14But there is still a will to keep at least a thread of talks
09:19and conversation between US and China.
09:21Thank you very much for that, Jean-Francois D'Emilio,
09:23Honoury Chair at the Asia Centre.
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