- 3 months ago
The top focus of this episode of To The Point is on the escalating war of words in the final days before the first phase of the Bihar assembly elections.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching To The Point. I'm Preeti Chaudhary. We come to you from Gaya.
00:06Gaya goes to polls in the second phase of elections. But the countdown has begun in the next two days.
00:15The first phase of polling will kick in where Bihar is concerned come the 6th of November.
00:20And in midst of all of that, the politics is peaking, the war of words defining the battleground that is the state of Bihar.
00:29Three incidents have happened in the last 24 hours that have lit the battleground of Bihar.
00:37Number one, you've had the Prime Minister who did a roadshow in Patna yesterday and went out to use an analogy
00:46which seemed to point towards a dig at Jungle Raj of the Lalu period and also making a slight jibe at the alliance of the Mahagat Pandar.
00:58On the other hand, you had Rahul Gandhi who was in Begu Sarai who took what many would call a political dip
01:04with his VIP partner, the alliance with the VIP and with other members of the Malla community
01:16where he jumped down from a boat and fished with the Malla community.
01:21Is there a stronger political messaging there?
01:24And lastly, you have Yogi Adityanath who's been campaigning in Bihar
01:28and this time called, used certain words for Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav and Tejasvi Yadav.
01:39The opposition, of course, Mahagat Bandhan finding it all too unsavory,
01:44but will it have impact on the ground?
01:47That's the big question.
01:48With just few days to go before Bihar heads to the polls in the first phase,
02:13the political temperature is soaring.
02:16From caustic insults to splashy campaign stunts,
02:20the battle for Bihar is taking every form.
02:23On the campaign trail in Darbhanga, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath
02:28bated into the contest with sharp barbs.
02:31Taking a swipe at the Mahagat Bandhan,
02:33he invoked Mahatma Gandhi's monkey analogy,
02:35calling Rahul Gandhi, Tejasvi Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav,
02:39Pappu, Tappu and Appu.
02:45Lekin, آج, Indi Gharbandan ke teen aur bender a gaye.
02:51Ye teen bender,
02:56Pappu, Tappu aur Appu ke nama par,
03:02Pappu, such bol nahin sakta.
03:05Pappu, acha dek nahin sakta.
03:11Aur,
03:13Appu,
03:16such sun nahin sakta.
03:21Prompt came the response from the Opposition Alliance.
03:26Yeh,
03:27Amrika se dhokar khae hoe loo hai.
03:29Amrika inheh dhara ra hai.
03:31Is liyeh chunaan mein inke nagaami par bhehes na ho ho.
03:36Is liyeh yeh serehi elemij kata hai.
03:38Is,
03:39DJP mein bade-bade guptu hai.
03:41Aur,
03:42unke chappu hai humare.
03:44Unke chappu hai humare.
03:45Unke chappu hai humare.
03:46Chappu hai.
03:47At another rally,
03:52the India's biggest vote magnate,
03:53Prime Minister Narendra Modi,
03:55sharpened the rhetoric by calling the Mahagatabandhan's leadership,
03:59tussle,
04:00a katta,
04:01or country gunfight.
04:02The Prime Minister not only highlighted the fisheries within the Opposition Alliance,
04:07but also revived the Jungle Raj debate,
04:10a central theme of the BJP's Bihar campaign.
04:13Congress and RGD meh dhamaas saan matah hua hai.
04:22RGD nene Congress ki kaan kaan pati par kattar kattar kattar cm pa chori kar liya.
04:37Prime Minister's kattar remark was met with a fierce counter-attack from the Mahagatabandhan.
04:46Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
05:16RGD nene Congress ki ka joh samay hai,
05:18ho rozgaar dilwane mein,
05:20dhikas lane mein,
05:22bade-bade udhyogo ko lagwane mein lagna chahiye.
05:26Isi liye meera sujhav ye hai,
05:28ki wo ek naya mantrale bana de.
05:31Or usko,
05:32uska naam rakhye apmahn mantrale.
05:35Ho bade-bade sujiya nikal de te hai,
05:37ki hume isne gali di,
05:38usne gali di,
05:39isne humara apmahn kiya.
05:41To ho khud kya bẹtke suji banayenge?
05:43Apmahn mantrale bana de ga.
05:45But as the war of words raged on the rally grounds,
05:52Congress leader Rahul Gandhi made waves in Baigusarai.
05:56In a dramatic outreach to the Malah community,
05:58he jumped into a muddy pond,
06:00joined local fishermen and said,
06:02they have always had his back.
06:03Rahul was accompanied by son of Malah Mukesh Sahani,
06:13the deputy chief minister face of the Lions,
06:15as part of Congress' outreach
06:17to the Nishad on Malah community,
06:19which makes up around 2.6% of Bihar's population.
06:23As phase one voting nears,
06:28Bihar's campaign has turned into a spectacle of one-liners and optics.
06:32The real pole issue of jobs, migration,
06:35inflation are lost in complex caste churn
06:38that tends to decide which way Bihar swings.
06:41Bureau report, India Today.
06:46There's optics in one-liners,
06:50which could lead to larger messaging as well.
06:53What does it mean?
06:55Where do both the ND and the Mahagat Bandhan
06:57stand two days away from the first phase of voting?
07:00I'm joined this evening by Amitabh Tiwari,
07:03founder of VoteWive.
07:04I also have with me political analyst Javed Ansari,
07:07Rajat Sethi, political analyst.
07:09Amitabh Tiwari, who himself has been travelling
07:11through the course of Bihar.
07:13What do you make of it, Amitabh?
07:15At one end, of course, there will be the jibes,
07:18the taunts that come with electioneering,
07:19like with what Yogi Adityanad said.
07:22But interesting to see the other two,
07:24one in terms of optics,
07:26Rahul Gandhi jumping in with the Malla community,
07:29hoping that the larger political messaging
07:31reaches the Mallas as well as Nishadza,
07:34who could proverbially push the Mahagat Bandhan
07:37from where they could stand at 36-37%,
07:41a little more,
07:42which could define a lot for the MGB.
07:45On the other hand, Amitabh,
07:46you had the Prime Minister yesterday in Patna
07:50making a straight jibe at the MGB,
07:53but with a larger connotation of Jangal Raj and the RJD.
07:57Now, of course, amongst the core voters of NDA,
08:03the fear of return of Jangal Raj still works.
08:07And this largely works among the 35-plus or 30-plus age group.
08:12That's why it is significant.
08:14So one, despite all the development
08:16which can be credited to Nithish Kumar,
08:19Jangal Raj or the return of Jangal Raj
08:21is still one of the key factors of the election.
08:23And the announcement or the formal announcement of Tejasvi
08:27meant that the Prime Minister's attack
08:29would be focusing on Jangal Raj
08:31or the return of Jangal Raj,
08:33corruption and nepotism or dynastic politics.
08:35These three largely.
08:37Now, if you see the campaigners from both the sides,
08:40all star campaigners have their own defined roles.
08:44So you have a Yogi Adityanath
08:46who is talking about batenge to katinge.
08:48The North of Bihar, 70% of the Muslim population
08:52actually resides in the North of Bihar.
08:55And polarization seems to be working
08:58or has worked in Bihar in the past.
09:01We've seen in Simanchal that the NDA gets 12
09:04and the Mahangad Bandhan plus AIMIM 12,
09:07even in Lok Sabha, 2-2 seats.
09:09So that's how his statements can be ascribed towards that.
09:14And Rahul Gandhi is trying to woo the EBC vote
09:18because the EBC vote is largely the support base of Nitish Kumar.
09:23And with the announcement of Mukesh Shani as the deputy CM,
09:27the Mahangad Bandhan hopes that the Malla voter
09:30which traditionally have voted for the NDA
09:33shift towards Mahangad Bandhan.
09:35Now, when any voting bloc shifts from one alliance to another,
09:40it creates a double impact.
09:41It creates a bigger swing than otherwise.
09:44So that's why I see Rahul Gandhi also making his attempts
09:47to get this vote back
09:51because it is a very, very crucial vote bank in this election.
09:57Well, you're right there, Amitabh,
09:58because it will be extremely crucial.
10:01The Mahangad Bandhan would or has,
10:04at least in the past,
10:06found itself stuck between, you know,
10:08the MY plus question mark combined
10:10where and how to get that incremental over 37% vote
10:14and the Malla community
10:16could prove to be that game changer
10:18if at all they vote for the Mahangad Bandhan.
10:21So all those optics there.
10:23And Amitabh Tiwari was right.
10:25And I'll bring in Rajat Sethi and Javed Ansari
10:26into this conversation.
10:28You know, while the religious connotation
10:31might not work in most of Bihar
10:33because caste cuts religion,
10:35but in key areas like, see, Machal or even
10:37where the Darbhanga city seat is concerned,
10:40where it's religion that actually plays a huge part.
10:44So you have the likes of Yogi Adityanath
10:46who are campaigning across Bihar.
10:48But Rajat Sethi, to bring you on this,
10:50how do you view all these optics?
10:51But I think optics do play a role,
10:57especially when you have to tighten your narrative
10:58around core offerings.
11:01And when it comes to the UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath,
11:05he brings a message of consolidating the Hindu base,
11:09but also giving a no-nonsense governance
11:12which remains, you know, deeply attractive
11:16across the hinterland of our country.
11:18And he carries that double message.
11:21And I believe, you know, over the past two weeks or so,
11:24we've seen this attack on Jangal Raj
11:27getting piled up against the opposition.
11:29And there seems to be a lack of a coherent way
11:32of, you know, coming out of this Chakraviru.
11:35We've seen this almost over the past three or four
11:38assembly election cycles
11:40that Bihar elections happen
11:41and then opposition doesn't have a clear plan.
11:44And Congress is seen like deer in front of the headlights
11:47where they believe that they haven't done anything
11:50when it comes to Jangal Raj,
11:51but they still get accused and bucketed
11:53along with RJD.
11:55And this unease between the two parties
11:58because of multiple reasons
12:01comes out to the front,
12:03comes out to the foray
12:04and they tend to result in
12:06all of the other attacks
12:07that the BJP was able to pile against them,
12:10exploiting the differences in strategy
12:11between the two parties.
12:13Therefore, I believe optics helps.
12:16I mean, Prime Minister has been ensuring
12:17that right from the very front,
12:19he is giving anecdotal evidences of Jangal Raj,
12:23trying to bring the gory details of Jangal Raj
12:26up to the people's conscience
12:28and trying to, you know,
12:29evoke that same sort of imagery
12:31which basically creates anxiety among people.
12:36And that anxiety has a lasting impact.
12:39Election over election, you've seen that.
12:40And I believe BJP has a very,
12:42you know, easy script cut out.
12:44The real creativeness could have come
12:46from the opposition.
12:48What creativity have they shown so far
12:50in order to break out of this mold?
12:53And, you know, this is where I feel
12:54that they did not put in the amount of thought
12:56because this kind of attack
12:57was largely on predictable lines.
13:00So I believe would Rahul Gandhi's dip in water,
13:03get him the EBC vote?
13:04Absolutely not.
13:05It is not as easy.
13:06Look at the dominant Yadav community.
13:08community has an influence
13:10over the larger OBC politics.
13:12You don't see space,
13:13a political space for EBC
13:14in the Mahagadbandan fold.
13:17And just taking a dip may not be sufficient
13:19for Rahul Gandhi or for Tejasui
13:21to build confidence among the EBCs
13:23that they will get space
13:24in the Mahagadbandan equation.
13:26Okay, I want to bring in,
13:29I want to bring in Javed Ansari into this.
13:32Javed, you know, three separate,
13:34one can call them, you know,
13:37optics that have played out
13:38in the last 24 hours,
13:40hoping to define what the next 72 hours
13:42could bring because voting is
13:43on the 6th of November.
13:45You know, on the face of what
13:47the Prime Minister said, Javed,
13:50Rajat said, you know,
13:51to play on anxiety.
13:53You can only play on anxiety
13:54if there is deep-seated fear.
13:56Many of us who are on ground
13:58do pick up the fact, Javed,
14:00that the ghosts of Jangal Raj,
14:02Forte, Tejasui,
14:03are more difficult to shake
14:04than even the anti-incumbency
14:06against this government.
14:08So, how do you see it all come together?
14:11So, look, it is my belief,
14:14I could be wrong,
14:15but it is my belief,
14:16that this is going to be
14:17an election of small margins.
14:19The outcome will depend
14:21on whether or not
14:22the opposition is able
14:24to enlarge its bokeh
14:25to be able to wean away
14:27some of Mr. Nitish Kumar's support.
14:30On the other hand,
14:32the India Alliance,
14:34the big task is to keep
14:37its flock intact.
14:38If it's able to keep
14:39its social combination intact,
14:41then they'll get through.
14:43But then, let's not forget,
14:46during the last elections,
14:48there was only a difference
14:49of 15 seats.
14:50If you actually calculate,
14:52then seven seats,
14:54if the opposition had won
14:55seven more seats,
14:56the election would have been,
14:57the results would have been
14:58totally different.
15:00So, therefore,
15:00everything will depend,
15:02a hinge,
15:03on whether or not
15:04the opposition
15:04has been able to wean away.
15:06That is why this effort
15:08of avoiding the Mullah community,
15:11the other ABCs,
15:12that's why this political messaging
15:14of taking a dip
15:16in the gadae,
15:18in my part of the world.
15:20This is called gadae.
15:21We try and,
15:22you know,
15:23camouflage it
15:24by calling it a pond.
15:25If you've seen
15:26what a gadae is,
15:27then taking a dip,
15:29I mean,
15:29I won't do it.
15:30I don't know about the others,
15:31though I belong to
15:32that part of the world.
15:34So, yes,
15:35these are all messages,
15:36messaging,
15:37messages,
15:38and much of it
15:40is aimed at consolidating
15:42their own vote back,
15:43the Prime Minister
15:43talking of Kata,
15:46Mr. Aditya Naath
15:47in trademark style,
15:49talking of Appu
15:50and Papu
15:51and Tapu
15:51and so we have to wait
15:54and see what more
15:55there is to come.
15:56Rahul's attempt,
15:58I think the onus
15:59has now been put on
16:00the task
16:01to woo the EBCs
16:03and woo the Dalits
16:03who have so far
16:05not voted
16:06for the Mahabharj Mandan
16:07earlier,
16:07has fallen
16:08on Mr. Rahul Gandhi.
16:10So,
16:10much will depend
16:11on the level
16:13of success
16:13he achieves
16:14or he does not achieve.
16:16The results will hinge
16:17on that.
16:19You know,
16:20but Javid,
16:20will it be as simple
16:22and I'll come back to you,
16:23I'm going to take
16:24final comments there,
16:24would it be as simple
16:25as just taking the dip
16:26because where the
16:27smaller EBC communities
16:28are concerned,
16:30you know,
16:30usually,
16:31the jungle Raj fear
16:33is more instilled
16:34in them
16:35than anyone else.
16:36For them,
16:36they might want
16:37to vote for a candidate
16:38but when you speak
16:39with them,
16:40the fear
16:41is so strong
16:42that it's a negative vote.
16:44They are voting
16:45to make sure
16:46that a particular community
16:47doesn't come to power
16:48and you can,
16:49you know,
16:49pick up that sense
16:50from them.
16:51So,
16:51will it be enough
16:52is the big question
16:53but I want to bring in
16:54all three of our
16:55panelists back
16:56into this conversation
16:57starting with you
16:58Amitabh Tiwari.
16:59We are two days away
17:00from the first phase
17:01of polling.
17:02Who do you think
17:02has the edge?
17:03Who do you think
17:03has the advantage?
17:04And what would be,
17:06what you would be
17:07watching for
17:07very closely?
17:11No,
17:11essentially,
17:12the contest is
17:12hyper-local
17:14seat-by-seat also
17:14because various seats
17:16have different dynamics.
17:18Somehow,
17:18on the ticket distribution
17:19front,
17:20the BJP has denied
17:22lesser or the least
17:23number of tickets
17:23to its sitting MLAs.
17:25that is a deviation
17:27from the strategy
17:28which is normally
17:29follows and that
17:30is creating some
17:31sort of issues
17:32especially in the
17:33northern Bihar
17:34which is Darwanga
17:35Madhubani,
17:35Kosi Chetra.
17:37The entire outcome
17:39of this election
17:40depends upon two
17:41factors.
17:42One is the alpha
17:43vote which the
17:45Mahila Rozgar
17:46Yojna brings to
17:47the NDA fold.
17:49That is largely
17:49how much of
17:51Muslim Yada
17:52women get attracted
17:53by this 10,000 scheme.
17:55But isn't Amitabh
17:56that already a
17:57converted vote?
17:57Aren't you preaching
17:58to the choir there?
17:59Have you been able
18:00to add more votes
18:01on that account?
18:02That's what I'm saying.
18:04Where the Mahila vote
18:04is concerned.
18:05It's not a vote
18:05of the NDA.
18:08It is about
18:09the shift vote.
18:10That is the vote
18:11which the Yada
18:12or the Muslim Mahila
18:13could shift to NDA
18:15because of this
18:1610,000 scheme.
18:17That's number one.
18:18So that's the extra.
18:19And that is very,
18:20very difficult to gauge.
18:21Second is
18:22that the Congress
18:23is fighting
18:2450 of its 60 seats
18:26against BJP
18:27and JDU.
18:28These 50 seats
18:30are going to decide
18:31the Dasha
18:32and Dasha
18:32of this election
18:33because JDU
18:34had the lowest
18:35strike rate
18:35amongst NDA
18:37in 2020
18:37and Congress
18:39had the lowest
18:39strike rate
18:40amongst
18:40Agadbandan
18:41in 2020.
18:43But
18:43JDU had defeated
18:44I'm running out of time.
18:45I want to bring in
18:46our other two guests
18:47as well, Amitabh.
18:49Right.
18:49Make your point.
18:50I get the point
18:51I think you're making
18:52Amitabh is also
18:53that the Congress
18:54is fighting
18:55a fair number
18:56of seats
18:56against the BJP
18:57where its strike rate
18:58has been abysmal.
19:00But I want to
19:00quickly cut across
19:01to our other two guests
19:02and give them
19:03some time each.
19:04Rajat Sethi,
19:04what are you going
19:05to be watching out for?
19:06Sorry,
19:12you know,
19:13what I'm keen
19:13to understand
19:14is that what is
19:15Rajat,
19:16please unmute yourself.
19:17Yeah,
19:17Congress party
19:18in terms of
19:19their strategy,
19:20if they think
19:20that 2020
19:21is their starting point
19:22and all they need
19:23to do is to get
19:24that one extra
19:25percentage vote
19:26switched from
19:27the NDA
19:28towards
19:29Magadbandan
19:29then that is a
19:30fatal strategy
19:31in my opinion.
19:322020 was a very,
19:34very different scenario.
19:35Back then,
19:36there was a genuine
19:37angst because
19:38in the shadows
19:39of COVID
19:39that seems to be
19:42not working
19:43right now
19:43and right now,
19:45you know,
19:45frontal attack
19:46on age of
19:47Nitishji
19:47is also not working.
19:49There is a degree
19:49of respect
19:50that people have
19:51for elderly,
19:52especially in Bihar
19:53and I am therefore
19:54not seeing a lot
19:56of attack
19:57around the age
19:57itself being
19:58the sole purpose
19:59around which
19:59the election
20:00can be run.
20:01I personally feel
20:02and what I am
20:03going to watch out
20:04is what is that
20:04core election issue,
20:06that one line
20:06election issue
20:07which sticks
20:08with the voter
20:08when they go out
20:09and consider voting
20:10for the Mahagadbandan
20:11because so far
20:12the overall message
20:14has been so muddled
20:14and so all over
20:15the place
20:16that I cannot see
20:17a distinct
20:17one line message
20:18that the voter
20:19can carry
20:19so far.
20:23Okay.
20:23One minute,
20:24I would like to give
20:25you know,
20:26Javed Ansari,
20:26if you would come in,
20:28what are you looking at?
20:29Well,
20:30I am looking
20:31at whether
20:32there has been
20:33a depletion
20:34or not
20:35in Nitish Kumar's
20:36support
20:36amongst women
20:38and whether
20:39the Mahagadbandan
20:41has been
20:41able to add
20:43more votes
20:45to its social
20:45combination.
20:46If that happens,
20:48it could be
20:48a close election.
20:49Well,
20:54I think I would
20:54also agree
20:55with what
20:55Amitabh ji said.
20:56One needs to
20:56closely watch
20:57how the Congress
20:58does in this election.
20:59I'm actually coming in
21:00and you know,
21:01the report that we
21:01filed earlier
21:02was from Bacchwada
21:03and that's where
21:04a friendly fight
21:05is taking place
21:06which is
21:06to say
21:07not friendly
21:09in the least
21:09between the
21:10left
21:11and the
21:12Congress party
21:13where the RJD
21:14itself doesn't know
21:15who to support.
21:15To support
21:16the left
21:17or to the
21:17Congress
21:18and in midst
21:19of all of this
21:20it's been a seat
21:20which went down
21:21to the wire
21:21in 2020
21:22was lost
21:23with just a little
21:24over 400 votes
21:25less than 500 votes
21:27and was never won
21:28by the BJP
21:29but the last time
21:30around
21:31and a similar
21:31story goes
21:32and once again
21:33this is just
21:34one of the
21:3511 friendly
21:36fight seats.
21:37So we're going
21:37to leave it at that.
21:38We're going to
21:38keenly watch
21:39all developments
21:40that are taking place.
21:41One thing is also
21:42correct.
21:42It's a hyper local
21:43elections on many seats
21:45which could be
21:45advantage the
21:46Mahagarhpamgad.
21:47Trust us to get you
21:48the latest.
21:49We thank all our
21:50panelists for joining us.
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