- 1 day ago
In this special show on the Bihar assembly elections, catch all the action from the first phase of polling that began on Thursday morning.
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00:00Stree Shakti to decide Shasin
00:07All eyes on the Mahila vote
00:14Can Nitish bank on Nari Shakti again?
00:22What Bihar's women really want?
00:33Decoding Bihar battle's biggest X Factor
00:40A very good evening, you're watching Inglia today, I'm Preeti Chaudhary
00:43I come to you right outside the Vidhan Sabha, the State Assembly in Patna, Bihar
00:48Come the 14th, we'll know exactly who is going to sit in the treasury benches behind me for the next five years
00:55It's NDA versus the Mahagat Bandhan and pitched battles being fought on ground
01:01121 seats are up for grabs in the first phase of polling today
01:06Big-ticket contest, the chief ministerial face for the Mahagat Bandhan, Tejasvi Yadav's fate from Ragupur will be tested today
01:13Along with two deputy chief ministers, be it Samrat Chaudhary and also another deputy chief minister of Bihar
01:23Plus 13 sitting cabinet ministers
01:26Big-ticket contest on the line and this time, even if for a brief while, the power shifts in the hand of the people
01:34The people become the all-powerful
01:37We're going to continue to get you the latest ground reports, the biggest exclusive interviews
01:42And what exactly is taking place on ground
01:44But first up, allow me to take you through the headlines
01:47Bihar deputy CM Vijay Sina attacked, stones pelted, cow dung flung on Vijay Sina's car
02:02He blames the RJD, RJD denies charges
02:05Voting in Bihar picks pace, brisk voting as of 3pm, over 53% voter turnout reported
02:19Begu Sarai sees highest voting, Patna witnesses will turn out
02:22RJD versus EC in state of war Bihar, RJD alleges bid to sabotage boots by cutting power
02:35EC rubbishes Gauls, allegations baseless
02:39Giri Radh Singh's big remark on suspicious burqa-clad women voters
02:48Says suspicious women in burqa will be checked
02:51Wakes controversy
02:58Answer to Rahul's Korn Hai Yeh on India Today
03:01Meet Larissa, the mysterious Brazilian model cited by Rahul
03:05About travelling
03:07Buong
03:30Multiple X factors in every election.
03:45There are always constants and there are variables.
03:48The variable in Bihar the last time was, of course, the woman vote.
03:52The constant has been cast.
03:54The variable this time, once again, is the woman vote.
03:57The crucible of the Bihar election rests on the shoulders of women, many would suggest.
04:04How much will the women vote come together, consolidate behind Nitish Kumar,
04:09who has carefully cultivated this constituency, not just from now, but 25 years, little by little.
04:15The latest 10,000 rupees offering under the Mukya Mantri Yojana for women,
04:19under the umbrella of Jeevika Didi, many would suggest, is only but a top-up on multiple schemes that have happened,
04:26like the 50% reservation for women in Panchayat or the 26% reservation for women where police jobs are concerned.
04:35The national average of women representation in lower police jobs is just about 12 to 13%.
04:39So, all of that, will it help consolidate the NDA vote?
04:44Will Nitish be that factor that women will band together?
04:47That's a big question.
04:48On the other hand, will women, even despite of getting the 10,000 rupees dole, the direct cash transfer,
04:56stick to their caste identities?
04:58That has also been reported by multiple reporters on ground,
05:02where women coming in from various subsets of caste are not so much aligning in name of gender and the cash doles,
05:09but now returning to the caste fault lines and aligning with their caste identity.
05:14That will hold the key.
05:16And what in all of this will be, you know, a good indicator is what the vote percentage is.
05:23If the vote percentage of women is very high, then that could give certain indications of predicting what could
05:30or what has happened in the first phase of election.
05:34Right now, voting percentage is where 3 p.m. was concerned, was recorded at 53, nearly 54%, 53.6%.
05:43It's bound to go up 6 p.m. is when voting will go until after 5 p.m.
05:49You cannot join the queues.
05:50This has also been very contentious with the Mahagat Bandhan closely watching boots now,
05:56because the last time around in other states, a substantial percentage of voters were added post 6 p.m.
06:02So lots of questions there.
06:03But focusing back on the woman vote and what it could mean for this election,
06:09while some women voters have praised the current government and its schemes,
06:13others have voiced their need for greater access to education, employment opportunities in the state.
06:19Listen in to the biggest X-factor this election, the Mahila vote.
06:39How this process happens is when you come here to vote, there is a separate place.
07:04You keep your mobile phones here, check your names on the voting card, on that list, you have the slip.
07:12And once that happens, so big smile on their faces and that perhaps shows the enthusiasm.
07:18The queue of women voters, which is never-ending, unstoppable women voters who are lining up at voting stations across Bihar and more so in Siwan as well.
07:28Since morning, we have seen every polling booth that we are going to.
07:32You have women voters in big numbers who have turned up.
07:35You have to demand for that.
07:42What you are going to do to do is the government, the government, the women voters in big numbers.
07:45We have all the people who are living with the children and we have all the money to give to the kids.
07:51We have all the things that they need to give to the people.
07:54Do you feel comfortable with that?
07:57Yes sir.
07:58There is a lot of great and hope to make this sign that the place for the world is a good place.
08:07And the quality of the world is a good place.
08:11Do you want to give the people a good place?
08:12Yes, the people a good place.
08:14So the big question, viewers,
08:40is women vote emerging as a caste-neutral vote bank
08:45like it did in 2020 in Bihar?
08:48Well, you know, a vote bank allegiance of women
08:51coming together is a slow cultivation process
08:55and that has happened and taken years for Nitish to do.
08:58Will that vote bank galvanize behind Nitish Kumar this election?
09:02That's the big question.
09:03Or will it now return to, you know, gender coming back to caste?
09:07That also needs to be watched very carefully.
09:10However, when you translate into literal percentage,
09:14where voting percentage is concerned,
09:16a lot of political analysts would be looking at that number closely.
09:19I want to just take you back to 2020 and look at the figure there.
09:23Overall voting percentage in 2020 was close to 57%
09:27in Bihar in all phases.
09:29The women vote defined that election with 60% women voting,
09:33with men just voting at 54%.
09:35One of the reasons for that has always been
09:38because there is a huge migrant population,
09:40especially in rural Bihar, to give you a figure,
09:43about 9% of men in rural Bihar are out of Bihar
09:47and earning their livelihood elsewhere.
09:50This is a big figure.
09:5164% of rural Bihar salaries,
09:55where households are concerned,
09:56are dependent from other states,
09:58which is on migrants.
09:59So one can well imagine that how many numbers of men actually go
10:05and earn their livelihoods outside.
10:08Therefore, the number of women who are there to left in Bihar
10:11to fend for themselves,
10:13keep their families together,
10:15you know, take the role of a breadwinner as well for their families
10:19gets that much more importance.
10:21And this vote bank becomes very, very prominent
10:25when voting is concerned.
10:27And because the men are not there in that many numbers.
10:30So will the voting patterns go down the same lines?
10:33If so, the last time around,
10:35the women had backed Nitish Kumar.
10:37And that was clearly seen with post-poll data.
10:40Will that happen this time around?
10:42Because a lot of pollsters had under-interviewed
10:46or under-surveyed the women vote.
10:49This time around,
10:50is there over-emphasis on the women vote?
10:52That's also a question.
10:54Let's cut across to our band of reporters
10:56who've been tracking the women vote,
10:58the youth vote across the country.
11:00Joining me right now is my colleague,
11:03Amit Bhardwaj,
11:04who's joining us from Sivan, from Saran.
11:06There is Moshmi from Darbhanga.
11:07There is Rahul Gautam.
11:09And we have Anupam,
11:11who's joining us from Tarapur.
11:12I want to cut across to Anupam first,
11:14where Tarapur...
11:15All right, we'll go across to Amit Bhardwaj first,
11:18not Anupam, from Sivan district.
11:20Sivan was one district, Amit,
11:21that we have discussed very closely.
11:25A district where eight seats in the entire district,
11:28two only went to the NDA,
11:30six to the Mahagat Bandhan.
11:32It's a district that the Mahagat Bandhan
11:33would be hoping to consolidate,
11:36especially because we are talking of the women vote.
11:38You've been tracking the area of Sivan.
11:40Sivan is also the nerve center,
11:44ladies and gentlemen,
11:45when it comes down to migrants.
11:47Sivan, Saran, Chhapra.
11:49The entire region is dependent
11:51on their migrant population
11:53that goes out and earns their livelihood.
11:56Making the number of women
11:57in these, you know,
11:59constituencies very, very important
12:01because the men are clearly not there.
12:04Some of them have stayed back
12:05after Chhat to cast their ballot,
12:07but most of them have also gone.
12:09So, Amit, you have been tracing,
12:11you know,
12:12the vote pattern
12:14through the course of the day
12:15in Sivan.
12:16What have you gauged?
12:17Well, Priti, you know,
12:23two kinds of migrations
12:24certainly bother Sivan.
12:26One which happens across the country,
12:28the other one is a happy migration
12:30because many of these youth
12:32have traditionally been working
12:34in Gulf countries as well,
12:36and Mohammed Shahbudeen's era
12:38is very much credited for that as well,
12:40that kind of change that happened.
12:41But today in Sivan,
12:43there are two constituencies
12:45that were certainly the focus
12:47of the electoral, you know,
12:49battle in Sivan as well.
12:51One being Raghunathpur,
12:52where you had Virasad versus Siasat,
12:55essentially Mohammed Shahbudeen's son,
12:57Osama, being in the electoral fray
12:59for the first time,
13:00avoiding the media,
13:01not speaking much,
13:02maintaining a calm, you know,
13:04calmness all through the campaign
13:06and even on the day of polling.
13:08But his mother, Hina Sahab,
13:09while speaking to me,
13:10did say that, you know,
13:12whatever the BJP leaders
13:13want to say about Osama,
13:15they can,
13:15but Raghunathpur and Pratapur as well,
13:17the village from where
13:18Mohammed Shahbudeen belonged to,
13:21are like family
13:22and they will back Osama's
13:24electoral debut as well.
13:26But there you have Vikas Singh,
13:28who is in the electoral fray
13:29from Janata Dal United,
13:31NDA leaders backing him as well.
13:33But, you know,
13:34it is to be noted,
13:35the way women voters
13:36were queuing up
13:37at the polling station,
13:38certainly you had a certain kind of
13:40polling trend
13:42when it comes to
13:43a specific caste
13:44and specific religion,
13:45but more so,
13:47we also found out
13:48in the very Raghunathpur,
13:49you know,
13:50such as
13:50adjoining villages
13:52of Pratapur,
13:53which used to be
13:53the native village
13:54of Mohammed Shahbudeen,
13:56women voters
13:57at the polling station
13:58in the queue
13:58speaking about
13:59the 10,000 loan
14:01that has been given to them
14:03for starting businesses
14:04and they had business ideas
14:06on their mind
14:07that they were
14:07speaking about.
14:08One lady
14:09did mention about
14:10Amit,
14:10one quick question
14:11before we go to
14:12our other reporters.
14:13When you've been speaking
14:14to women,
14:15do you see them
14:16band together
14:17on their role
14:18as gender
14:19where the 10,000 rupees
14:21dole is concerned
14:23or do you see them
14:24not really go,
14:25you know,
14:26and band as gender
14:27but return to
14:28their caste fault lines
14:29this time?
14:30What are you witnessing more
14:31in the area
14:32that you are?
14:37Priti,
14:38I think
14:38for a certain
14:39community
14:40and a certain caste
14:41they might be
14:42following the caste line
14:43but for many
14:44of these women
14:45it's about the welfare
14:46schemes of the
14:48Nitish Kumar government
14:49which is sort of
14:50resonating in them
14:51even when they are
14:53standing in the queue
14:54to cast their vote.
14:55So we have met
14:56male members
14:57of the families
14:57by the way
14:58who are really doubtful
15:00one from in fact
15:01Yadav community
15:02voter in the
15:04adjoining village
15:05of Pratapur
15:05who did mention
15:06that he is not
15:07very sure
15:07as to where
15:08women from his
15:10own family
15:11might have cast
15:11the vote
15:12when they went
15:12to the polling station.
15:14So that is the
15:14kind of confusion
15:16that even the
15:17family members
15:18are facing
15:19at this point in time.
15:20Let alone the
15:21NETAs
15:21who is electoral.
15:22That actually
15:23is healthy democracy
15:24where at least
15:24women are coming
15:25out and voting
15:26exactly where they
15:27want to.
15:27I'll come back
15:28to you.
15:28Amit is short
15:28on time.
15:29I want to bring
15:29in all our
15:30reporters and
15:31editors on ground.
15:32Anupam has been
15:32tracking the
15:34Tarapur constituency.
15:35Very, very important
15:36because it's going
15:36to test the fate
15:37of one of the
15:37deputy chief ministers
15:39Samrat Chaudhary
15:40standing from
15:41Tarapur constituency
15:42fighting an election
15:43after 14, 15 years.
15:45He's an MLC right now
15:46has never contested
15:48from Tarapur
15:48coming in together.
15:50It's going to be
15:50a very tough contest
15:51where Tarapur is concerned
15:52and the deputy chief
15:54minister who already
15:55is facing enough
15:56flak
15:57especially from
15:58Prashant Kishore
15:59and even the RJD
16:00on his educational
16:01qualifications
16:02is fighting a very
16:03tough battle.
16:04One of the two
16:05chief ministers
16:06whose fate is going
16:06to be tested
16:07the deputy chief
16:08ministers whose fate
16:09is going to be tested
16:10today is Samrat Chaudhary.
16:11The other one
16:12you just saw
16:13whose car was
16:14attacked in
16:14Lakhim Sarai
16:15is chief minister
16:17Rajiv Sinha.
16:17But I want to bring
16:18in Anupam.
16:20Anupam, Tarapur
16:21constituency
16:22extremely important
16:24will hold the fate
16:25of the deputy chief
16:26minister Samrat Chaudhary
16:27but it is not
16:28an easy fight
16:29for him.
16:34Well, yes, Priti.
16:35When I spoke
16:35to Samrat Chaudhary
16:37in the morning
16:37he looked very confident
16:38he spoke very confidently
16:39but let me tell you
16:41this contest
16:42is very close
16:43because if we look
16:45back the previous
16:47results
16:47in Bipole
16:50of 2021
16:51the JDU
16:52won here
16:52but they won it
16:53narrowly
16:54and for the past
16:55few years
16:55JDU had kept
16:57their seats here
16:58but the margin
16:59was very narrow
17:00so this time
17:01also it's a very
17:01tough fight
17:02between Arun Shah
17:04and Samrat Chaudhary
17:05and some of the people
17:06and I have also
17:07spoken with some
17:08of the women
17:09and women came
17:10out in large
17:11numbers
17:12in every booth
17:14and the one thing
17:15which I noticed
17:16which I witnessed
17:17was that absence
17:18of youth
17:19the number of youth
17:20were not sufficient
17:21in every booth
17:23so this might affect
17:24the outcome also
17:26but let me tell you
17:27the previous results
17:29and the people
17:30who were speaking
17:31about things
17:32not on the camera
17:34but without the camera
17:36so it will be
17:37a very close fight
17:38between Samrat Chaudhary
17:40and Arun Shah
17:41okay
17:44a very very close fight
17:46a lot of people
17:47are predicting
17:47a very tough contest
17:48for the incumbent
17:49Deputy Chief Minister
17:51Samrat Chaudhary
17:52there
17:52one of the two
17:53deputy CMs
17:53testing their fate
17:54in the first place
17:55I want to cut across
17:56right now to Moshmi
17:57who's joining us
17:57from Saran
17:58Saran is also
17:59the hotbed
17:59of migration
18:01palayan
18:01young boys
18:02going out
18:03in the search of jobs
18:04Moshmi
18:05that has been
18:05one big factor
18:07where Saran is concerned
18:08we even saw
18:09Prashant Kishore
18:10hold multiple rallies
18:11in Saran area
18:12this is where today
18:14Priyanka Gandhi
18:14was also campaigning
18:15but the larger factor
18:17Moshmi
18:17you've been now
18:18tracking this election
18:19over the last
18:20eight days
18:20micro if we look
18:21at the district
18:22that you are in
18:23Saran 73
18:24was what
18:25the dynamics
18:27were the last time
18:28in favour of
18:28the Mahagat Bandhan
18:29where seats
18:30were concerned
18:31but Moshmi
18:32speaking to the
18:33woman voter
18:34what is it
18:35that you have gauged
18:36where do the women
18:37stand this time
18:38with caste
18:39or with
18:40the doles
18:41that they are getting
18:41Priti I'm glad
18:46you asked me
18:47that question
18:48and you know
18:48I've been in Bihar
18:49ever since
18:50I did that
18:51entire investigation
18:52on SIR
18:53and then the voter
18:54Adhikar Yatra
18:55and after that
18:57I've been here
18:57for about a month
18:58or so
18:59and I wanted
19:00to decode
19:01for you
19:02my observation
19:03as far as
19:04you know
19:04the much
19:05Allah Balu
19:06about the women
19:06voters is concerned
19:07if you talk
19:09about what I
19:09observed in the day
19:11in Chapra
19:12I didn't see
19:13a lot of enthusiasm
19:14in the women voters
19:16I didn't see
19:17long queues
19:18I saw the line
19:20of male voters
19:22longer than the
19:22women voters
19:23I don't know
19:24the reason
19:25is it because
19:26you know
19:27there could be
19:28one that
19:29Chapra is
19:30swinging
19:30towards the
19:32Mahagatbandan
19:33and so the
19:35Mahagatbandan voters
19:36were more in the
19:37queue
19:38and thereby
19:40the women voters
19:41of the Mahagatbandan
19:43didn't come out
19:44much
19:44it could mean
19:45that
19:46because they
19:48didn't want
19:49to vote
19:49against Nitesh
19:50is it that
19:51or is it
19:52that the
19:52MY combination
19:54is
19:55which
19:56RJD
19:58thinks
19:58is its
19:59core vote
19:59bank
20:00there
20:01the women voters
20:02are sticking
20:02to
20:03RJD
20:05but other
20:06than the
20:07MY combination
20:08the women voters
20:09are swinging
20:10towards Nitesh
20:11on the other
20:12hand
20:13if you've seen
20:14that there is
20:14a non-Yadavar
20:15a non-Muslim
20:16candidate
20:17of the
20:18Mahagatbandan
20:19then are the
20:20women voters
20:21in terms of
20:23supporters of the
20:24Mahagatbandan
20:25going with that
20:26candidate
20:27so
20:28are the
20:29caste
20:30fault lines
20:31the women voters
20:33are breaching
20:33that
20:34and
20:34the upper
20:35caste
20:36or the
20:36EBC
20:37which is the
20:37core vote
20:38bank
20:38of Nitesh
20:39if there is
20:39an EBC
20:40candidate
20:41which is a
20:42strong candidate
20:42of the
20:43Mahagatbandan
20:44are women
20:44going
20:44for that
20:46candidate
20:46that is
20:47also a
20:48grey area
20:49so we
20:49cannot
20:50really
20:51clearly
20:53say that
20:54they are
20:55just
20:55being drawn
20:56towards
20:56whatever
20:57the freebies
20:58are being
20:58given
20:59there could
20:59be
21:00some
21:00reading
21:01between
21:01the lines
21:02there
21:02and
21:03lastly
21:03I would
21:04like to
21:04say
21:04that
21:04I went
21:05to a
21:06chai shop
21:07and
21:07at the
21:08Dhabha
21:08I asked
21:09one of
21:10the youth
21:10that
21:11you are
21:13you are
21:13and
21:16the chai
21:16wala
21:17told me
21:17you are
21:18so
21:20that
21:20actually
21:21underlines
21:22the entire
21:22political
21:23permutations
21:25and
21:26combinations
21:26in Bihar
21:27you know
21:27that
21:28you are
21:28so what
21:30caste
21:30is
21:31you are
21:31so
21:32are
21:34the
21:35caste
21:36fault
21:36lines
21:36really
21:37breaking up
21:37this
21:37youth
21:38this
21:39women
21:39voter
21:39one
21:40will
21:40have
21:40to
21:40wait
21:40and
21:40see
21:41because
21:41because
21:42you know
21:43there could
21:44be
21:44a
21:44end
21:46block
21:46voting
21:47for
21:47Nitish
21:48Kumar
21:48or
21:48there
21:48could
21:49be
21:49a
21:49breaking
21:49of
21:50the
21:51women
21:51voters
21:51amidst
21:52the
21:52caste
21:53fault
21:53lines
21:53right
21:54okay
21:57interesting
21:57observations
21:58Moshmi
21:58especially
21:59if you
21:59you know
22:00suggest
22:00that
22:01long
22:01queues
22:02in
22:02favor
22:02of
22:03the
22:03Mahagat
22:04Bandhan
22:04in
22:04Chapra
22:04well that
22:05would be
22:05music
22:05to
22:06the
22:06years
22:06of
22:06the
22:07RJD
22:07they
22:07want
22:08to
22:08reclaim
22:08Chapra
22:09which
22:09was
22:09the
22:09Karam
22:10Bhoomi
22:10and the
22:11seat
22:11of
22:12Lalu
22:12where
22:12he
22:12built
22:13his
22:13political
22:13muscle
22:14and
22:14now
22:15with
22:15the
22:15BJP
22:16and
22:16they
22:16fielded
22:17Kishari
22:17Lali
22:17the
22:18popular
22:19Bhojpur
22:19singer
22:21so if
22:22Chapra
22:22is going
22:22the RJD
22:23way
22:23they'd be
22:24very very
22:24happy
22:24on that
22:25account
22:25if at
22:25all
22:25that's
22:26happening
22:26but
22:27I want
22:27to bring
22:27in
22:27Rahul
22:28Gautam
22:28Rahul
22:28Gautam
22:29joins
22:29us
22:30from
22:30Darbhanga
22:30Darbhanga
22:31could be
22:31very well
22:32one of
22:32the swing
22:33regions
22:33this election
22:34along with
22:34Madhubani
22:35Kosi
22:35because
22:36these
22:36areas
22:37where
22:37the
22:38Mahagat
22:38Bandhan
22:39had done
22:39rather poorly
22:40last time
22:41has a
22:41fair amount
22:42of influence
22:42of the
22:42Mala
22:43vote
22:43in favor
22:45of the
22:45VIP
22:45candidate
22:46which
22:46went
22:46the
22:47NDA
22:47last time
22:48so the
22:48Mahagat
22:48Bandhan
22:49will be
22:49looking at
22:49making
22:50games
22:50here
22:50but Rahul
22:51through the
22:52course of
22:52the day
22:53speaking to
22:54women
22:54where do
22:55you think
22:55the women
22:56in this
22:56region
22:57stand
22:57well
23:03you know
23:03I'll also
23:03agree with
23:04Moshmi
23:04I think
23:05you know
23:06women voters
23:07holding
23:07key
23:08this is
23:08something
23:08which is
23:09overhyped
23:09at least
23:10in this
23:10election
23:10and it
23:10seems
23:11that
23:11you know
23:12the caste
23:13is getting
23:13consolidated
23:14this time
23:15around
23:15you know
23:16and one
23:17thing
23:17which is
23:17not
23:17you know
23:19discussed
23:19enough
23:20are they
23:20here
23:20this side
23:21how
23:21you know
23:22extremely
23:23backward
23:23communities
23:24this time
23:27am I
23:28audible
23:28you're audible
23:32go ahead
23:33Rahul
23:33am I
23:34audible
23:34okay
23:37so
23:37one thing
23:38which is
23:38not
23:39discussed
23:39enough
23:39is
23:40extremely
23:40backward
23:41communities
23:41this time
23:42and
23:43you know
23:43the breach
23:44that is
23:44happening
23:44happening
23:44with them
23:45because
23:45of the
23:45fact
23:45that
23:46you know
23:47we have
23:48a Mullah
23:48leader
23:49Mukhesh Chani
23:49already declared
23:51as Deputy
23:52Chief Minister's
23:52face
23:52he has been
23:53given 12
23:53seats
23:54then there
23:55is a
23:55community
23:56which is
23:56called
23:56Pantankia
23:57community
23:57they have
23:58got 2%
23:58population
23:59they also
24:00have influence
24:01in over
24:02half a dozen
24:02districts
24:03so
24:04and also
24:05you know
24:05Congress
24:06has got
24:06their PCC
24:07president
24:07from
24:08Dalit
24:09community
24:09Rajesh Ram
24:10community
24:10and in
24:12fact
24:12I have
24:13been
24:13speaking
24:13with
24:13many
24:14of
24:14them
24:14and
24:14they
24:14have
24:14been
24:15decisively
24:15voting
24:15for
24:16BGP
24:16in the
24:18past
24:19election
24:19but this
24:19time around
24:20they are
24:20saying
24:20that we
24:20are going
24:21to
24:21change
24:24our
24:24voting
24:25preferences
24:25so this
24:25is what
24:26is happening
24:26on ground
24:27zero
24:27also
24:28one thing
24:29is very
24:29important
24:30see
24:30Bihar
24:31is
24:33you know
24:34the
24:34state
24:35which is
24:35lower
24:35lowest
24:36per capita
24:37income
24:37so you
24:38know
24:38women
24:38getting
24:3910,000
24:39rupees
24:42in their
24:42own
24:43account
24:43is something
24:43which can
24:44be a
24:44lifeline
24:45for them
24:45so that's
24:45why you
24:46could see
24:46it matters
24:49a lot
24:49obviously
24:49you know
24:50she can
24:50buy
24:50new clothes
24:52books
24:52for her
24:53children
24:53and the
24:54running
24:54household
24:54is a
24:55responsible
24:55Rahul
24:56you are
24:56right
24:56so therefore
24:57it's an
24:58extremely
24:59important
24:59thing
24:59you're
25:00right
25:00there
25:00Rahul
25:00because
25:01the
25:01point
25:01that
25:01you
25:02made
25:02I
25:03just
25:03want
25:03to
25:03underline
25:04that
25:04for
25:04our
25:05viewers
25:05right
25:05now
25:05because
25:0660%
25:07of the
25:07household
25:08in Bihar
25:09viewers
25:09and you
25:10know
25:10this needs
25:10to be
25:10underlined
25:11per household
25:13make less
25:13than 10,000
25:14some of them
25:15even less
25:15than 6,000
25:16a month
25:17so to give
25:17them 10,000
25:18rupees
25:19is a big
25:20amount
25:21for them
25:21and you
25:23know
25:23that plays
25:23on the
25:24psyche
25:24especially
25:25where it
25:26comes with
25:26the promise
25:27that if you
25:27invested
25:28and you can
25:28prove that
25:29you've invested
25:29in a good
25:30business
25:30we'll give
25:31you 2,000
25:31rupees
25:32as loan
25:33that's huge
25:34so you
25:35know I
25:35want to
25:35you know
25:36leave it
25:36at that
25:37where the
25:37woman vote
25:37is concerned
25:38with our
25:38reporters
25:38we'll pick
25:39up that
25:39factor
25:40with our
25:41political
25:42panelists who
25:42are joining
25:43us
25:43but right
25:43before that
25:44it's phase
25:45one
25:45and there
25:45are some
25:46big ticket
25:46contests
25:47which are
25:48taking place
25:49number one
25:49the chief
25:51ministerial face
25:52of the
25:52Mahagat
25:52Bandhan
25:53Tejasvi Yadav
25:54is in the
25:54poll fray
25:55from the
25:55seat of
25:56Ragopur
25:56and it's
25:57not an easy
25:58contest by
25:58any means
25:59for Tejasvi
26:00as well
26:01where Ragopur
26:01is concerned
26:02sitting MLA
26:04from Ragopur
26:05earlier on
26:05there were
26:06indications he
26:07might contest
26:07from two
26:08seats but
26:08that would
26:08have given
26:09the wrong
26:10message
26:11where and
26:12in politics
26:13messaging is
26:13very important
26:14so he stuck
26:15to Ragopur
26:15and it remains
26:16to be seen
26:17how he does
26:18on that seat
26:19once again
26:20not an easy
26:21seat where
26:22Tejasvi is
26:23concerned
26:24Samrat Chowdhury
26:25another one
26:25who's facing
26:26a tough
26:26time
26:27the deputy
26:28chief
26:28minister
26:29of Bihar
26:30he is
26:32contesting
26:32from the
26:33seat of
26:33Tarapur
26:34he's a
26:35sitting
26:35MLC
26:36coming back
26:36into the
26:37election fray
26:37after 15
26:38years
26:38has never
26:39contested
26:40from Tarapur
26:40a very
26:41tough seat
26:42and a very
26:42tough contest
26:43where Tarapur
26:44is concerned
26:45as well
26:45the last
26:46time
26:46the RJD
26:47candidate
26:47from this
26:48seat
26:48had lost
26:49from a
26:49very very
26:50slim margin
26:50and he's
26:51been fielded
26:52against
26:53Samrat Chowdhury
26:54so a tough
26:55contest there
26:55Tej Pratap
26:56Yadav
26:57the estranged
26:57brother of
26:58Tejasvi
26:59and the
26:59estranged
27:00son of
27:00Lalu Yadav
27:01has floated
27:01his own
27:02political
27:02outfit
27:03and is
27:03contesting
27:04from the
27:05seat of
27:05Mahua
27:06once again
27:07it's not
27:08an easy
27:08contest
27:08one thing
27:09that has
27:10happened
27:10this time
27:11in Bihar
27:11is it's
27:12come down
27:13to a
27:13seat by
27:13seat contest
27:14in various
27:15pockets
27:15hyper local
27:17issues
27:17well so
27:18Tejasvi
27:18Yadav
27:19he said
27:19Raghopur
27:20his brother
27:20Tej Pratap
27:21from the
27:22seat of
27:23Mahua
27:23then you
27:24come down
27:24to the
27:25second
27:25deputy
27:25chief
27:26minister
27:26whose
27:26fate is
27:28being tested
27:29from the
27:30district of
27:31Munger
27:31Lakhim Sarai
27:32and that
27:32is Vijay
27:33Kumar
27:33Sinha
27:34we just
27:35saw what
27:35happened
27:35a pitched
27:36battle
27:37a bitter
27:37contest
27:38taking place
27:39on his
27:39seat
27:39where he
27:40faced off
27:41with
27:41RJD
27:42workers
27:43there
27:43he alleges
27:44his car
27:44was attacked
27:45RJD
27:45says it
27:46was all
27:46orchestrated
27:47but lots
27:47of these
27:48battles are
27:48playing across
27:49Bihar on
27:50121 seats
27:51many of
27:52them
27:52similar
27:53situation
27:53lastly the
27:54seat of
27:55Chapra
27:55Kesari
27:56Lali
27:56Yadav
27:57Kesari
27:57is a
27:58Bhojpuri
27:59singer
27:59and has
28:00been fielded
28:01on an
28:01RJD
28:02ticket to
28:02reclaim
28:03what the
28:03RJD hopes
28:04will be
28:05Chapra
28:06where the
28:07original seat
28:09of Lalu
28:09Prasad
28:10where he
28:10built his
28:10political
28:11muscle
28:11so these
28:12are some
28:13of the
28:13big ticket
28:14contests
28:14there is
28:14also
28:14Ali
28:15Nagar
28:15where you
28:16have
28:16Meithli
28:17Thakur
28:17who is
28:18on a
28:18BJP
28:18ticket
28:19young
28:19girl
28:20woman
28:20singer
28:21lots of
28:22other big
28:23contests
28:24that are
28:24taking place
28:25but some
28:25of the
28:26ones we
28:26just gave
28:26you there
28:27alright
28:27I would
28:27like to
28:28cut across
28:28right now
28:29to our
28:29political
28:30panelists
28:30who are
28:30joining us
28:31this evening
28:32introducing
28:33to you
28:34Javed Ansari
28:34senior
28:35journalist
28:35Sajjan
28:36Kumar
28:36political
28:37analyst
28:37Arati
28:38Jairat
28:38senior
28:38journalist
28:39Amitabh
28:40Tiwari
28:40founder
28:41vote
28:41I want to
28:42cut across
28:42to Amitabh
28:43Tiwari
28:43someone I
28:44think who
28:45has travelled
28:45than most
28:46of us
28:46journalists
28:47on ground
28:48in Bihar
28:48right now
28:49Amitabh
28:49if you are
28:50looking at
28:50the voting
28:51percentage
28:51the numbers
28:52that we
28:52have are
28:53at about
28:533pm
28:54close to
28:5454%
28:55healthy
28:57voting
28:58I will
28:58definitely
28:59cross
28:59what was
29:00the total
29:00voting
29:01percentage
29:01in 2020
29:02how are
29:03you studying
29:03it
29:04what are
29:04you gauging
29:05of it
29:05essentially
29:07we have
29:08to look
29:08at the
29:09female
29:09and male
29:11voter
29:11turnout
29:12the numbers
29:13which should
29:13be released
29:14in some
29:15time today
29:15or may
29:16not even
29:17be released
29:17today
29:18it might
29:18be released
29:19tomorrow
29:19correct
29:20interestingly
29:21when I
29:21see out
29:22of the
29:2218 districts
29:23where the
29:24elections
29:24are held
29:24today
29:25in 9
29:26districts
29:26the turnout
29:27is lower
29:27than 53.77
29:29and in 9
29:30districts
29:31the turnout
29:31is higher
29:32correct
29:32I could not
29:33see seat
29:34by seat
29:35unfortunately
29:36but at least
29:37in districts
29:38it is 50-50
29:39in terms
29:40of turnout
29:41now we have
29:42seen in the
29:43past that if
29:44the female
29:45turnout is
29:45higher it
29:47benefits
29:47JDU and
29:49the NDA
29:50because 37
29:51out of 43
29:5261 out of 71
29:54and 79
29:55out of 115
29:56seats won
29:57by JDU
29:58in 2020
29:5915 and
30:002010
30:01were on
30:02seats where
30:02the woman
30:03turnout is
30:04higher or
30:05was higher
30:06than the male
30:06turnout
30:07so specifically
30:08I think this
30:09is a key
30:09number which
30:10we need to
30:11observe
30:11we have seen
30:12that a higher
30:13turnout could
30:14be indicative
30:15of pro as
30:16well as
30:16anti-incumbency
30:17whereas in
30:18case of a
30:19lower turnout
30:20I believe
30:21that it
30:22points to
30:24the incumbent
30:25largely
30:26retaining the
30:28power
30:29one misconception
30:30I think people
30:31have is that
30:32the number of
30:33voters has
30:33declined
30:34actually if
30:35you compare
30:35to the
30:362020 Vidansaba
30:37election the
30:38number of
30:39voters has
30:39increased so
30:41the decline in
30:42turnout rather
30:43the increase in
30:44turnout is not
30:45on account of
30:46deletions because
30:48the number of
30:49voters has
30:49increased it is
30:52actually on account
30:53of a higher
30:54number of voters
30:55coming out and
30:56vote specifically
30:57on those in
30:58those nine
30:58districts
30:59okay but
31:03Amitabh ji you
31:04talk about you
31:05know the numbers
31:06that have been
31:06added the numbers
31:07that have been
31:07deleted now
31:08election commission
31:09data seems to
31:09suggest maximum
31:11deletion has
31:11happened in the
31:12Cimanchal area
31:13maximum addition
31:14has actually
31:15happened in the
31:15Magad area which
31:16is voting in Magad
31:17is one region that
31:18could prove to be a
31:19swing region this
31:19time
31:20so see again when
31:23we are comparing
31:24deletions and
31:25additions we are
31:26comparing with the
31:27January 1 voter
31:29roll or the
31:302024 election
31:32voter roll the
31:33number of voters
31:34in Bihar in
31:342020 was 7.36
31:36crore number of
31:38voters in Bihar in
31:392025 is 7.42
31:41crore only in 37
31:43constituencies the
31:45number of voters
31:45has declined whereas
31:47in balance 206 the
31:49number of voters has
31:50actually increased
31:51compared to 2020
31:52because 2020 is the
31:54base not 2024 or
31:56Jan 1 2025
31:57right all right you
32:02know Amita before I
32:03cut across to our
32:03other guests I just
32:04want to ask you one
32:05quick question so many
32:05political analysts
32:06would have us believe
32:07that in Bihar it
32:09doesn't work on the
32:10traditional stereotypes
32:11of sophology that if
32:13the voting percentage
32:13is high that means
32:15advantage incumbent if
32:16it's low that means
32:17advantage you know
32:19if it's high means
32:20advantage opposition if
32:22it's low means
32:23advantage incumbent you
32:24are suggesting it will
32:25all come down to how
32:27much the women have
32:28voted and only then can
32:29we analyze the voting
32:31percentage data correct
32:33sir yeah because we
32:35need to know the male and
32:37the female turnout and
32:38also it also depends upon
32:40the era in the last two
32:42decades we are in an era
32:43where 50 percent of
32:44governments are chosen
32:45back and 50 percent of
32:46the governments are
32:47thrown out so we're in a
32:4850-50 era where it is
32:50difficult to establish a
32:51relationship between
32:52higher or lower voting
32:53and the government
32:54coming back to power or
32:56higher or lower vote
32:57Amitabh ji just stay
33:00with me I just want to
33:01bring in Sajjan Kumar
33:02Sajjan Kumar with just
33:05what we've witnessed
33:05through the course of the
33:06day the voting
33:07percentage the factors
33:08that you're seeing on
33:09ground what are you
33:10picking up
33:11on the ground whatever
33:15insights and reports we
33:17are getting from various
33:18parts and as is being
33:20shown in various channels
33:21also you find that we do
33:23expect that Nitish Kumar
33:26core vote and there is a
33:28text and there is a sub
33:29subtext so the text is
33:30that Nitish Kumar core vote
33:32compared to 2020 is more
33:34secure and women when we
33:37say more women will vote
33:38to NDA incumbent because
33:41of the scheme centric
33:42outreach than the
33:44opposition it doesn't
33:45mean overwhelmingly women
33:46are voting it just mean
33:48maybe 2 percent 3 percent
33:504 percent 5 percent right
33:51and that's a substantial
33:53number and based on the
33:55ground my hunch is that
33:56perhaps we'll find and we
33:58should wait but we'll find
34:00more slightly more voting
34:01preferring NDA VJV MGB
34:05two what is the subtext in
34:07terms of the subtext you
34:08see this time in the first
34:10page it is Maha Gatbandhan
34:12which has a tough task to
34:14retain its 2020 performance
34:17precisely because of the
34:18Bhojpur, Shahabad and the
34:20Magad region because of
34:21demography because of
34:23alliance with the MLCPI ML
34:26who brought Kushwaha's and
34:27EBC's the constituency of
34:29Nitish Kumar to Gatbandhan
34:31for last time this time we
34:33are finding that many of the
34:35ML candidates and the seats
34:37that they represent be
34:38Dumrao be it polygons etc you
34:40know the candidates are
34:42facing some sort of
34:43anti-incumbency so you do
34:45not find the sort of charm so
34:47that way my hunch is that in
34:50terms of the gendered and in
34:52terms of the caste and
34:53community combination you find
34:55that you have a secure base for
34:58Nitish Kumar led NDA in Magad
35:01region and also in Shahabad
35:02region. Now coming to the part
35:04of Tirhut and Mithila right
35:07Darbhanga is undergoing
35:08therein you find Mukesh Sani
35:10factor you know disrupting this
35:13narrative and that's the
35:14subtext and therefore you find
35:15that on many seats where in the
35:17among ABC not all ABC but
35:20particularly the Mallas or the
35:22Bind or KW community are in
35:24good numbers so many of the
35:25seats which are closely
35:26contested say for example
35:28Jalej Ivesh Mishra is
35:29contesting at BJP in Darbhanga
35:31therein you have a significant
35:33Malla voters and people are
35:35expecting that it's going to be
35:36too close to call so you find the
35:38subtext that on many states is
35:40going more towards caste and
35:42community rather than gender but
35:44overwhelmingly when it comes about the
35:46dominant text right I expect and my
35:48hunch is that NDA will do better than
35:522020 and that that is where Mahagatbandan
35:56has a tough task to retain not just to
35:59supersede but to retain its dominance
36:01in Magad and Bhojpur region something
36:03I think is going to be a tough task
36:06right so slightly more women and
36:08slightly more women certainly will give
36:11a swing to NDA right and somewhere and
36:14that's the subtext the EBC factor of
36:17Mukherjani may give edge on seats so
36:20many yeah
36:21so you said slightly more women and if
36:26it is the slightly warm women that
36:28Amitabh Tiwari's vote vibe has recorded
36:30that at least five percent women at
36:33least in his data you know seem to
36:36suggest that they would not vote for
36:38Jan Suraj and Mahagatbandan after the
36:4010,000 cash toll and shift their vote
36:42to the NDA could mean a quite a big
36:45jump for the NDA if it actually
36:46translates between even a three to five
36:48percent vote shift of the women who
36:50are originally voting for the Jan Suraj
36:52or the Mahagatbandan but the overall
36:54picture Javed that has been painted by
36:56Sajjan Kumar at least doesn't all go
36:58well for the Mahagatbandan because if
37:00you pitch this was a phase that the
37:03Mahagatbandan should have retained and
37:05bolstered upon the number of seats
37:08if you look at the hundred and twenty
37:10one seats 2020 Mahagatbandan had 165
37:13and the NDA just 56 so this was an
37:16advantage Mahagatbandan phase so with
37:20all due respect to Mr. Sajjan I was
37:24listening I beg to differ with him and
37:26I'll give you the reasons why and they
37:29are as follows I was very listening very
37:33carefully to vote what your
37:36correspondence most missing and Rahul was
37:39saying in the course of their broadcast in
37:43the course of the broadcast they've said
37:45do not take it as a given and they were
37:49both at pooling boats and they spent the
37:51day there do not take it as a given that
37:54all the women who are turning out are voting
37:57largely or in substantially in favor of Mr.
38:02of NDA or Mr.
38:05Nitish Kumar if that indeed holds true and
38:09not just for the for the areas that these two
38:12reporters season reporters are reporting from but
38:16also in the in the areas that will go to the
38:19polls of of in the in the next round which
38:22is on the 11th if that indeed holds true if
38:25there is a slight slice in the in the in the
38:30women voters which were the core of Mr.
38:33Nitish Kumar then it could not be as smooth
38:36sailing as some people would have us believe in
38:40in that case the the NDA and the and Mr.
38:45Nitish Kumar will have a lot of thinking to do
38:53all right okay i want to quickly dip into the
38:55latest news break that is coming in right now
38:57where water turnout is concerned fresh figures
38:59viewers coming in of 5 pm water turnout and i
39:03would think this is uh at least in the first phase uh
39:05uh Bihar was recorded uh electoral history 5 pm
39:11onwards uh 60.13 percent water turnout has
39:16been recorded 60.13 percent till 5 pm it's
39:21definitely going to go up there will be certain
39:22additions to it because there will be lines
39:24which will continue to vote after 5 pm so we are
39:28looking at a water turnout in Bihar which will
39:30surpass 60 percent in the first phase so
39:33definitely it has uh a better uh 2020 and it's the
39:38highest voting percentage that Bihar has seen in
39:41the first phase in the last 20 years of course this
39:45is only the first phase we've had cumulative voting
39:47percentage of the last few uh elections and uh the
39:51best of Bihar was recorded in 2020 where it went to
39:55about 57 percent first phase of polling 121 seats voting
39:59percentage right now stands at 60.13 percent
40:03definitely will go up
40:04Begu Sarai has witnessed the highest voting
40:0867.32 percent is what Begu Sarai has
40:14witnessed in terms of voting the highest voting
40:17percentage in the last 20 years that has been
40:20recorded the lowest of course is Patna which has
40:23recorded 55.02 percent and even that is the highest
40:27where the last 20 years is concerned so despite of the
40:32urban rural divide and apathy that we speak of
40:35Patna has also showed up to the polling booths
40:38today so what we are actually looking at in terms of
40:41voting percent let me percentage let me underline that
40:45for you 16.13 percent recorded till about 5 pm
40:49trust it that it will go up in time to come
40:53Begu Sarai which was once called the Lenin guard of Bihar
40:56has recorded the highest voting percentage at 67 percent
41:00i want to just focus on Begu Sarai for once Begu Sarai
41:03viewers has seven seats there the RJD had two the BJP one
41:08two the CPI two and the LJP one
41:11so it was a four is to three combination in favor of the
41:14Mahagat Bandhan so Begu Sarai right now is witnessing a
41:1967.6 percent where voter turnout is concerned
41:24and ultimately it will cross 70 percent in all indication where
41:29Begu Sarai is concerned but overall the macro picture of
41:32Bihar clearly breaking records in voter percentage
41:35turnout what does this actually mean is the big question
41:38how do you decode it because traditional psychology doesn't really
41:42explain voting percentage figures in terms of who it
41:46benefits the micro detailing possibly like many of our analysts are pointing
41:50out will come from how many women have voted what is the women
41:55voting percentage we do have a figure though if you look at 2010 the gender
41:59wise voter turnout at that point of time
42:01male 51 percent female 54 percent but a more relative
42:05one would be of 2020 where women voted at a 60 percent and men voted at 54
42:12percent once again arty jairat who's with us as well as amitabh diwari
42:17uh we have sanjan kumar and uh javed ansari arty jairat to bring you in on this
42:22how do you decode this data that is just about coming in bihar all set to
42:27break records in voting uh percentage and voter turnout
42:43arty jairat can you hear me
42:50okay i don't think we have arty jairat we're going to try and reconnect to arty jairat but
42:54uh amitabh diwari uh if for a moment you want to step back and reflect on these numbers of course we
43:00don't have the micro detailing of the women voters there but bihar is all set to create history this
43:06polling season what was viewed as a silent election is uh speaking very loudly at the polling booths
43:15yeah clearly the the last year's record has been or the last elections record has been broken and
43:21which we still have we will still have some people in the queues so this number might go up further
43:27however what is intriguing is that if i look at the districts again bagu sarai is higher than 60
43:34bhojpur is lower baksar is lower darbhanga 67.3 percent is higher
43:41districts districts at 5 pm darbhanga is lower lower than 60 point yes whatever uh gopal ganja is higher
43:49khagadiya is higher lucky sarai higher madhupura higher munger lower muzaffarpur higher nalanda lower
43:57patna lower saharsa higher samastipur higher saran higher sekhpura lower lower siwan lower vaisali lower
44:07so you have nine out of 18 districts exactly having a higher turnout and a lower turnout so i think we
44:16will have to wait for the numbers because this might reflect a nuanced kind of voting uh bhojpur
44:24you recall bhojpur last time uh had largely voted for the maha gadbandan munger was largely 50 50
44:32and saran in saran zone the maha gadbandan was was leading this time what has happened is all the zones
44:39most of the zones are voting also in first and second phase which is which is complicating matters
44:45for analysis because some of the seats are going in phase one and phase two so i think we'll have
44:51to just wait and see how these numbers pan out because it seems that easily on almost 35 to 50
44:58percent of the seats the turnout might have actually declined uh uh or is lower than the state turnout of
45:0560 percent as of five behavior well well you're right there amitabh tiwari because i'm going through
45:13the data and it's very very interesting sajan kumar how would you interpret it because uh very varied
45:18data and there are multiple layers because you know once you actually go down to these districts and you
45:22go down to the constituencies one could say there are so many factors some of them highly pitched uh
45:29hyper local elections the other ones on caste fault lines the equations have changed the alliances have
45:34changed and then you bring in caste neutral factors like the woman vote uh yes pretty i mean as we told
45:41that there are many subtexts behind the text beneath the text right so one of the subtexts i think uh
45:46which could be accounted for uh this variance in voting percentage is the centrality of candidate factors and
45:53we also because when we start talking about the larger trend we tend to uh talk less about the
45:59minuscule factor and that minuscule factor about which we are not talking is the centrality of the
46:04candidate factor in many of the constituency which supersedes the scheme party and leadership factors
46:12you know so therein you find that at many constituency because there were hyper expectation about the candidate
46:18also and in terms of the candidate's relatability i find that rjd and jdu are doing better than
46:26say bjp and let's not talk about congress ljp and many uh smaller parties so i think one of the factor
46:34could be when you do not have a candidate who is relatable right so the core supporters of this camp or
46:40that camp right they do not turn out and vote and that could be one of the factor that besides we are
46:47talking about gender youth teams leadership parties you know election machinery all sort of thing it's
46:54the candidate which may be one of the minuscule variable affecting voters turn out because when you
47:00do not find candidates relatable it's not a wave election that's there there are certain undercurrents
47:07right now the undercurrent also requires an anchor at the local level when the anchor is a candidate say
47:12for example many of the rd supporters they are considered to be committed supporter but
47:17that seat has gone to vip or congress and the candidates are there so they will come out but
47:21the kind of enthusiasm the same would be true about uh bjp and jdu and that could be one of the factor
47:28i'm just uh going by my experience on the ground that candidate factors their unrelatability and
47:34relatability would be a swing factor to uh ensure and determine the voter you're right there sajan it's huge
47:41yes it's it's huge with what you said the candidate relatability is actually huge i want to just uh
47:49you know bring in uh i was in uh begusara i was in the bachwada constituency and there i did see a
47:55friendly fight which was you know far from friendly uh and uh between the left the congress and the rjd
48:02didn't really know who to support but with what you're suggesting candidate relatability on the other
48:07account also something that we're not really talking about is the jdu carder actually assisting
48:12the ljp carder on ground because on many seats i did see that the jdu carder wants to pay back the ljp
48:19in the same coin uh that of 2020 uh you know i want to quickly bring in for final word here aarti
48:25jarad we finally have you back uh with the voting turnout what does it look like uh bihar all set to
48:31break records but various districts voting very very differently forget about districts because
48:37some districts are going into vote in the first and the second phase but constituencies within those
48:41districts and other constituencies voting on very very different patterns what do you make of it
48:47yeah so i think it really adds up to a very confusing picture and the judging from what your
48:53analysts have been saying now even they are pretty confused about what is happening in behar
48:58uh you know i think what is uh what is really important to gauge and i think you need to wait
49:04for the second phase to be able to gauge that is how strong is the desire for change in behar is it strong
49:14or is it not strong and i you know i would feel that you know what has happened this time and which
49:20may explain why some places have registered a very a surprisingly high turnout is that i think
49:28krashant kishore whether he wins seats or he doesn't he has certainly catalyzed the election into a fiercely
49:35competitive election and today i mean both the rjd and the nda both the mahagat pandan and the nda
49:45have really pulled out the stops to compete contest these elections with everything they've got and that
49:52itself energizes an electorate it energizes voters and which is why many areas where you know you where
50:00where the campaign has been energetic and electrifying you you see a very high voter turnout surprisingly
50:06high for bihar because bihar and upi two states are really known for very low turnouts i mean 57 last
50:14time was high by bihar standards and 60 percent this time is really high by bihar standards so um you
50:22know i think what we need to gauge and we need to wait for more figures we need to wait for the second
50:28phase to finish is how strong is the desire for change uh because that will determine okay javed al-sari
50:37getting you in for a quick comment while we are reflecting on multiple aspects multiple facets of
50:42it mahila vote youth vote cast calculations mala vote uh you know the se water all of that uh you
50:49know and juxtapose it with uh what certain seats are projecting where the candidates uh hold the key
50:55hyper localized elections what's your final take is that question to me
51:04yes sir quickly so my final take is let's keep our powder dry let's keep our predictions
51:12in control wait for the second rank to get to get over a lot of interesting things all i will say is
51:19and i because i've been a reporter all my life i go more by reporters than by what we now sitting in
51:26studios say so going by them this could turn out to be an interesting election and this might make all
51:33all of us you know the kind of violence that has been reported through the course of the day javed
51:37the powder isn't dry in bihar at least on the day of polling but i want to take one one quick line
51:43amitabh tiwari will you hold your jury right now on which side uh you know things are tilting or tipping
51:49in favor of because we practically reach the end of polling now uh what's your final take sir
51:55no i mean just going by the turnout i think it is a more nuanced analysis which we will have to do
52:02not only male female but also districts and constancy specific and just wait for some further numbers to
52:10to rather predict the results just basis on the the turnout at 5 pm because we know that the numbers
52:17might significantly change as well you're right there there would definitely be an increase a
52:2510 seconds sajan kumar and 10 seconds arty jareth and then we go into a quick break sajan kumar
52:30yes i mean one question that i would uh like to uh engage with that do people want nitish out and
52:36they just way in i have not seen that sort of a momentum uh being there so therefore i think it's uh
52:43going to stay the way uh it's there it's the undercurrent is for a status quoism here and there
52:48you may find some change but overall i do not see a surprise all right status quo under current
52:55for status quo is what you're saying arty jairat well i mean i think the voting figures don't
53:00suggest an undercurrent for status quo although we it's still early we have to wait for the second
53:05phase but the very fact that half the number of half the number of constituencies that have voted today
53:11have recorded a surprisingly high turnout suggests that it's not an undercurrent for status quo it could
53:17be an undercurrent of change or it could be an undercurrent all right of income but something
53:22i'm going to cut you short we've run out of time i'm told but uh we're going to have you all of you
53:28back uh on the show again uh thank you for joining us so the voter percentage right now viewers has
53:33surpassed uh what has been recorded in bihar in recent uh elections we are going to leave it at that
53:39what many of us thought on ground was a silent election the voter has spoken very loudly at the ballot
53:45who does the ballot favor the nd or the mahagat bandhan we only know when that last vote is counted for
53:50now it's goodbye for me
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