- 3 months ago
This special report unpacks the internal turmoil within Bihar's Mahagathbandhan alliance ahead of the 2020 assembly elections, as key figures like RJD's Tejashwi Yadav and Congress's Rahul Gandhi struggle with seat-sharing. BJP spokesperson Ajay Alok delivered a scathing critique, stating, ‘There is no oil left in the Mahagatbandhan. It's actually a thugbandhan, it's a fraudbandhan.’ The disarray is evident as alliance partners are pitted against each other in at least 12 constituencies, creating confusion and potentially splitting the anti-incumbency vote. This contrasts sharply with the NDA, where Amit Shah is shown to be actively managing the coalition, including quelling rebellions, to present a united front under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The programme analyses whether this internal conflict and lack of a cohesive strategy could hand a decisive advantage to the NDA on counting day.
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00:00on Bihar is not just about who is campaigning but also about who is colliding as allies within the
00:15Mahagat Bandhan are against each other even while trying to fight the NDA as the polling dates of
00:22November 6th and 11th come near the window to fix alliances is closing fast with withdrawals for
00:31phase two ending on October 23rd yet the Mahagat Bandhan and still hasn't cleanly settled seats
00:40turning partners into rivals in 12 seats where direct clashes are now playing out RJD has unilaterally
00:48unveiled 143 candidates Congress has lagged in finalizing its slate and smaller partners have
00:56put up their own names so much so that the block briefly fielded more candidates than available
01:03seats that's how the confusion is playing out in Mahagat Bandhan rather than cohesion which is the
01:11need of the hour this isn't strategy it is a signal to voters that negotiations faltered and that
01:17precious campaign energy may now be consumed by friendly fire instead of taking the battle to
01:25the NDA meanwhile Bihar chief minister and NDA face Nitish Kumar was on the stump today in Meenapur and
01:32Kati so here are the stakes two weeks out allies in open contest split the anti-incumbent vote
01:42unclosed seat sharing breeds confusion at the at the booth and every day lost to internal wrangling is
01:52essentially giving opposition camp its gains two pictures are emerging from Bihar right now one alliance
02:02still drawing its map another already on the road and the differences may be tallied on November 14th
02:10when the counting decides who turned timing into victory that's how the cards are stacked up as we look at these
02:18elections two weeks from now but first up the story and then I bring in the guests
02:22a Mahagat Bandhan in Bihar the alliance seems to be unravelling seat by seat in the nth hour ahead of
02:34polls with less than three weeks to go before the first vote is cast cracks jibes and political mind
02:40games dominate the alliance with a consensus nowhere in sight ticket distribution disputes and rival
02:48candidates on same seats have turned the contest into a Mahagat Bandhan versus Mahagat Bandhan war in 12 key
02:54constituencies out of this RGD faces the Congress in six seats Congress battles the left in four and
03:01the RGD takes on VIP in two of them but the war within allies doesn't end with a squabble over seats
03:09despite repeated requests by the RGD the Congress is yet to declare Tejasvi as the alliances CM face and to
03:16now add insult to injury there are overtures being made to Nitish Kumar to join hands with them
03:21in contrast in the opposition camp Amit Shah has taken full control for the NDA late-night closed-door
03:27meetings and Patna with rebel candidates aim to keep the house in order the confidence is leading to
03:32the opposition camp Amit Shah has taken full control for the NDA late-night closed-door meetings and Patna with rebel
03:39candidates aim to keep the house in order the confidence is leading to push the
03:45in the opposition camp Amit Shah has taken full control for the NDA late-night closed-door meetings and Patna with rebel
03:53candidates aim to keep the house in order the confidence is leading to pot shots being taken at their rivals
03:59If there are people in this brahman, there is nothing called as friendly fight, either you are friends or you are fighting with each other
04:11This is not a good word in Sankharsh Rajneetim, this is a wrong word
04:17While the Bandhan and the alliance is breaking down, Rahul Gandhi was busy in the national capital making Diwali sweets
04:25Sweet celebrations, but sour politics
04:28Bureau Report, India Today
04:31We have Dr. Ajay Alok, national spokesperson of the BJP
04:35Dr. Sanjay Kumar, spokesperson of the JDU
04:37And Dr. Pooja Tripathi, congress spokesperson is also joining us
04:41Dr. Pooja Tripathi, the question is, what is visible here is that all is not well in Mahagadbandhan
04:49You have an important election to fight, but what is visible is that you are fighting within
04:59I don't think so, it's a media speculation that we are fighting within
05:03Mahagadbandhan is a formidable alliance, every alliance partner is an equal, there is no junior or senior partner
05:09And there would be friction within some seats, I have been saying this for so many days
05:13that the seat sharing talk is not an easy path to take
05:15And having said that, there are few seats where friendly fights are taking
05:19I think live-in in particular
05:21And that's okay, it's a democracy and everybody has a right
05:25Somebody is not contended with the candidate candidates
05:29They are there to fight, to have a friendly fight
05:31I remember Maharashtra, where the Mahayati candidates had a friendly fight
05:35on 8 seats
05:37And then what happened?
05:39And what happened in Maharashtra?
05:41What happened in Haryana?
05:43You went on to lose both those elections
05:45No, I am saying Mahayati had a friendly fight on 8 seats
05:49Thank you for saying that
05:51They went on to win the Maharashtra
05:53They went on to win the Haryana
05:55Telling about the NDA seat sharing
05:57In Tribura in 2019, the IPT of the major ally in NDA
06:01They declared that they will contest both the parliamentary seats
06:05In living and being a part of NDA
06:07They declared that they will be contesting both the parliamentary seats
06:11Dr. Pooja Tripathi, you know
06:13Yes, you have corrected me here
06:15But how do we forget that in both these states
06:19It was the BJP which was in power
06:21So when they have friendly fights
06:23The equations are different from the challenger
06:27The Mahagatbandan here is the challenger
06:29You are looking to get a toehold in Bihar
06:33Why should people in Bihar trust you right now
06:38Given the fact that you have not ironed out your differences
06:41And then in close to 12 seats you are fighting with your own alliance partner
06:45And we will get a toehold in Bihar
06:47Because Bihar will vote on the issues of CAM
06:50Bihar will vote on the issues of Pallayan
06:52Bihar will vote on the issues of absolutely no industrialisation in the state
06:56Bihar will vote on the issue of why per capita income in Bihar is so less than national average
07:01Why female labour force participation rate is at 9%
07:05Bihar will vote on the issue of why 138 bridges have collapsed due to corruption
07:10While tons of litres of alcohol is being drunk by rats I presume
07:15So it's being said in Bihar
07:16You know at the moment
07:18What is evident here is
07:20That you have not got your house in order
07:22And if you have got your house in order
07:24Then you could have taken on the NDA
07:26Right now your house is collapsing
07:29It's collapsing like a pack of cards
07:31Where Tejasvi Yadav and Mr. Alavaru have trust deficit which is also evident here
07:38Dr. Manisha Priyam I tend to agree with what Chirak Paswan says here
07:42That there is nothing called friendly fight
07:45You are either fighting or your friends
07:48Yeah
07:49So that tells you that on both sides you can say oh the scale is more there and the scale
07:58is less here
07:59There are issues of political start-ups look parties like Chirak Paswan or even more the
08:06Hum are really not Pan Bihar parties or not even you know parties with very large mass base
08:15And on the other side you also have something like the VIP or the IP
08:19Nobody even refers to IP Gupta's party as the name of that party
08:24So specific sub-Jati based sub-caste or Jati based parties
08:29So these are not parties with the programmatic and ideological appeal
08:33And I think on both sides genuinely there are Gatbandhans there are not political parties but Gatbandhans
08:40And different order of magnitude but both sides have had these problems
08:44And it seems both sides are also punishing some of the political start-ups
08:49I mean Chirak Paswan certainly remains an unsettled issue with Mr. Nitish Kumar
08:55Nobody can deny the fact that Nitish Kumar was politically very upset about what had been done to him
09:02To reduce his might to a number 43
09:05And I think those issues still remain
09:08So if we take it that Nitish Kumar is politically very active and leading his party
09:14Then certainly it will be the case that he is asking his coalition partner that look we need to
09:20Corner this gentleman for what he did to my party in the last elections
09:25And if he is politically inactive then let's say that across the BJP and the JDU
09:30While they need Chirak Paswan they are also trying to say that ok this is your specific role
09:36So the BJP perhaps needs this small political start-up but also wants them to be in their particular place
09:43What's happening on the other side nobody can understand
09:46Because there the Congress and the RJD are not coming to an agreement
09:50Apart from whatever may have happened with VIP etc that's now in the past
09:54But the Congress and the RJD sparring over seats
09:57That seems like the bigger magnitude issue right now
10:00Absolutely I mean all the momentum which was evident
10:04Initially seem to have been lost in this bickering which is playing out
10:08And close to 12 seats at the moment where this is going to be like a friendly fight
10:13Sarjan Kumar as someone who has been doing extensive research on ground
10:17Do you say do you think now that this image of Tejasvi and Rahul Gandhi not being in sync
10:27I'm taking the name of these two leaders is because let's be clear
10:30I mean it's leaders who fight these battles
10:32Yes, their leftenants play an important role
10:35But if there was difference of opinion over seat sharing
10:39Then Tejasvi and Rahul Gandhi could have spoken over the phone and sort of settled this out
10:44But it's evident that they're also not making enough effort
10:46Yes, precisely and that's leading to what you call loss of perception
10:52Because in electoral arena before winning election you need to win the war of perception
10:57And certainly in war of perception the parameters are leadership coherence
11:02Which is not there in Mahagatbundan
11:04Then you have about the narrative coherence which is not there
11:07Because we do not know whether it's the SIR virtually issue
11:10It's the one job to every family issue
11:13Or it's the EBC centrality promised by the Congress
11:16So what is the narrative synchronization that's not there
11:18And then you also see the kind of what they are calling friendly fight
11:22So it's creating a sort of a perception loss already
11:26So in terms of the war of perception you already see an edge among the NDA constituents
11:33And that way Rahul Gandhi and Tejasvi needed to have some sort of a chemistry
11:39Because certainly the Congress-in-Chair Dallavori and Tejasvi
11:41And there were credible reports they were not at the good terms
11:44Not many meetings had happened until two weeks back between the two leaders
11:49So that way it has created a sort of loss of momentum for the challenger
11:55This is one
11:56Two also you see with regard to you take two leaders Rahul Gandhi and Tejasvi
12:00What is the problem? Rahul Gandhi talks about vote chauri
12:03Which is not the talking point right now
12:05He talks about giving centrality to the EBC government job
12:09To EBC some land for the plots in urban areas
12:13But you see the ticket distribution
12:15How many EBCs have been fielded by the Congress?
12:19You cannot have a radical narrative and a very conventional practice in reality
12:24Exactly, so that's the gap
12:26And also you see Tejasvi
12:28When Tejasvi needed to send a sort of a message
12:32Because when you talk about the caste censors create a sort of bowjan
12:35And the radical bowjan mobilization vis-a-vis the traditional upper caste
12:39You cannot afford to fill around 40% of your own caste men as the candidates
12:45You know, because where is the caste diversity?
12:47Yes, that has a significant percentage
12:50But that doesn't mean they will cater to the other's aspirations
12:53So that way you see this sort of a lack of chemistry between the top leaders of the constituent
12:58Primarily Rahul Gandhi and Tejasvi is leading to a loss of moral perception
13:03And there is certainly the ND has an edge
13:05Yes, so they do not have the arithmetic edge
13:09And now you have the chemistry failing as well, Dr. Pooja Tripathi
13:13This is certainly not good news for Mahagarbandan
13:17You may call it chemistry failing, you may call it collapsing
13:20But Mahagarbandan is solid on front
13:23And they will file the election
13:25They will file the election for the issues of people centric
13:28What matters to people?
13:30Festivals around the corner
13:32Look at very, very simple thing
13:34Air fare has cost 5000 plus rupees from Delhi to Bihar
13:39And it's not a per capita income in the state
13:42And look at the streets
13:44They have been clogged into the neck
13:47And that's what I am saying
13:48In these elections, people will vote out
13:51A government that has delivered absolutely nothing in 20 years
13:54Be it poverty, be it health indicators, be it education
13:58Be it massive corruption that is going on
14:00Be it everything
14:02Be it the biggest problem, the unemployment
14:05And that's what we are saying
14:07People will vote out the present government
14:09And Mahagarbandan would fight as a formidable
14:13Four, fight as a unified
14:14Because there are some frictions
14:16I am accepting that
14:17There are some frictions
14:18And I am thinking while the second phase
14:20The list would be out
14:22The second phase the date
14:24The timeline date ends
14:26The nominations for the second phase is also over ma'am
14:30Now we are looking at just two days
14:32When the second phase candidates will have to withdraw their
14:37Yes, the withdrawal has to happen on 22nd
14:40So what we are looking at is
14:42In a number of these seats
14:43The friendly fight
14:44The apparent friendly fight will continue
14:46Which certainly is giving disadvantage to your coalition or alliance here
14:52We would, there is not even a single press conference which have been jointly done by Rahul Gandhi Tejasvi Yadav so far
14:59There have been no effort of imagery which is so essential soon after the election dates were announced
15:06That hasn't happened
15:07So when it is about unity
15:10That is evidently not there ma'am
15:13Can you please point out a joint press conference done by BJP, JDU with Chirag Paswan and everybody
15:20We saw Aamish Shah Ji saying that Vidhayat
15:22First of all, Vithish Kumar's face there were fighting elections
15:25Now Chirag Paswan is saying that Vidhayat decide
15:28Aamish Shah Ji saying that Vidhayat decide
15:30Okay, that's the question
15:31That's the question
15:32That's the question
15:33That's the question
15:35Dr. Sanjay Kumar
15:36You know the question that was raised
15:38Or should I say
15:39The manner in which the Home Minister explained the process
15:43Has given some kind of confusion in the minds of JDU
15:48We certainly know that in 2020 the vote transfer was easier from the BJP to the JDU
15:57But it did not really happen the other way round
16:00Maria, I also told yesterday in your show that please listen to what Aamish Shah Ji said in Saran
16:07When he gave a speech addressing the electors
16:11He said that Bihar is only safe and going to be safe in the hands of Nitish Ji and Modiji
16:19You know, so that clearly means that what he says
16:22You know, when he meant by saying that we are fighting the election under the leadership of Nitish Ji
16:28So we don't have any doubt
16:29You know, it's like the Congress spokesperson and RJDS spokesperson
16:34You know, they are trying to come up with these thoughts and ideas
16:39And you know, trying to create some confusion
16:42Because they don't see any coherence among themselves
16:45She was mentioning about, you know, you asked about joint press conference
16:50Everybody watched that there were several meetings among NDA leaders together
16:55You know, from Patna to Delhi
16:57Did you see any joint meeting after Rahul Gandhi left Bihar and went to Colombia?
17:04Did you see any meeting together? No!
17:07No! You know, even when Tejasviji wanted to meet him in Delhi, he could not meet
17:13So there has been no meeting whatsoever among themselves
17:17And on the other hand, we had series of meetings
17:20We finalized our candidates
17:22We are, you know, like we are on the roads
17:24We are, we are, our chief minister is going
17:27And everyone in the prime minister is going to come to Bihar
17:30And going to address the electors, you know
17:34So we are far ahead
17:36The kind of perception that they are leaving the voters
17:39Yes, one moment
17:40Is very poor, very poor
17:41But let me, let me bring in Sajjan
17:43And he will give the exact statistic
17:45Sajjan, in how many seats in 2020
17:47The vote transfer between the BJP and the JDU did not happen?
17:51So it was basically all the 112 seats wherein JDU has the candidate
17:58And the strike rate of Chirag Paswan
18:01Overall, Chirag Paswan got around 5.8, that is 6% votes
18:04But on the seats he contested
18:06Therein, Chirag Paswan's strike rate was 10.5, almost 10 to 11% of the vote
18:12The challenge certainly is, Sanjay Kumar
18:14That on a number of seats where the Chirag factor damaged Nitish Kumar
18:24Nitish Kumar's party candidates in 2020
18:28What happens on those seats?
18:30Will you be ensuring that the JDU ensures the vote transfer to Chirag Paswan's candidates on 29 seats?
18:39Of course
18:40And how will the vice versa happen because of the acrimony which played out in 2020?
18:44Of course
18:45Of course
18:46So this, this year's election is much, much different than 2020
18:50You know, it was an unfortunate situation where, you know, things did not go well among NDA
18:57Like, especially with Chirag ji putting all his candidates separately
19:02But this time the coordination is at very, very high level and it's very coherent
19:07So we are, and the team on the ground, the JDU team, BJP team, LJP team
19:12Everywhere, you know, we are putting one poster, one thing like it's an NDA candidate
19:18You know, it's not like, JDU candidate, LJP candidate or BJP candidate
19:22Okay, okay, will that really play out? Ajay Alok
19:26Ajay Alok
19:27Well, Maria, first of all you need to understand, you were talking about turmoil in the Mahagadvandan
19:36There is no oil left in the Mahagadvandan, it's actually a thagvandan, it's a fraudvandan
19:41And Lalchi ki dunia mein thag bukhe nahi mara karte hai
19:44They are out to cheat each other and we have no comparison, NDA is no way compared to this Mahathagvandan
19:50Here, NDA is a proud five partners who have completely trust and understanding
19:55Which clear cut seat mentioning, which clear cut candidates coming out in the front and taking the election head on
20:01And there is so much confusion and so much chaos in this thagvandan, there is no oil left in this turmoil
20:07The Bihar election is straight away heading like 2022 Gujarat elections where we are going to come out 225 out of 243 that's for sure
20:14And you can see that the Congress spokesperson doesn't know because they don't have a figure from the AICC that how many candidates Congress is contesting in Bihar
20:25She cannot answer, she couldn't answer because she doesn't have any data
20:28Even the Congress party here sitting in Patna, they don't know
20:31Let her respond
20:32How many candidates are going to field more?
20:34Okay, how many seats is the Congress contesting on ma'am?
20:38There is an official candidate list released by Congress, I can just take a look at it
20:42When you actually
20:44Nominations are over, there is no official list
20:47Haan toh people are nominated
20:49Nominations are over but there is no official list
20:51They are actually filing nominations
20:53The biggest point here, the question here is
20:55How can they file nominations? The nominations are over
20:58The nominations got over yesterday
21:02You can't file nominations anymore
21:05What can happen is withdrawal of nomination for the second phase
21:09No, no
21:10Yes, please go ahead
21:11Except the applications 23rd is the deadline
21:14So I am saying
21:15For Rahul Gandhi there will be third phase of nomination after 5 years
21:19Let me ask you one simple question
21:21Tell me one instance
21:22Chirag Paswan has come out and say that we are fighting this issue of the dealership of PPSC
21:27Give me one single statement of this
21:29Dr. Manisha Priyam, two contrasting images from 2020 to now
21:342020, the Mahgat Bandhan looked united
21:39There were efforts to come up with a new narrative
21:41There was freshness in Tejasvi Yadav's campaign to now
21:44Now, in 2025, Mahgat Bandhan is looking disintegrated
21:48Tejasvi Yadav is speaking about one job per family
21:51Rahul Gandhi is speaking about SIR
21:54Where are the two alliances when you were to compare it to last time?
21:59So, what you are doing now is doing a programmatic comparison
22:06Right
22:07Now, let me tell you that in the last innings of this election
22:12I think there has been a heavy outpouring of programmatic offerings to the electorate from both sides
22:19The BJP came up with the cash transfer scheme which is the Mukha Mantri Yojana
22:26Of which 75%, two thirds was transferred actually by the Prime Minister
22:32And 25% was transferred by the Chief Minister
22:36So, that was the programmatic offering on that side
22:40On Tejasvi's side, there is the promise of one Sarkari Naukri per family
22:49That is what he is talking about
22:51And the SIR is something on which we are not discussing this
22:56But the CPIML are important constituents
22:59The left parties totally are important constituents of the Mahgat Bandhan
23:04And Rahul Gandhi, the left and Tejasvi seemed together on that plank and platform
23:12Definitely on that issue, it is Rahul Gandhi who was leading
23:16Definitely on the jobs promise, there is Tejasvi who is leading
23:19So, I do not think on the programmatic offerings, both sides seem very coordinated
23:24Be it the Prime Minister or the Chief Minister with their 75-25 ratio of cash transfers
23:30Or on the other side, the programmatic issue of pointing out what Rahul Gandhi feels are issues
23:37With elections as they are being currently conducted and Tejasvi's offering
23:42Now, even in the last election, it was Tejasvi who had become the face of saying that
23:47Look, we will give jobs to the UR work
23:49So, I do not think the issues lie on the programmatic offerings
23:52Both sides did it last moment, but they did it
23:56The real issues are the issues of collaborating or coordinating within themselves for the seats
24:03As I cannot see, I do not have a screen
24:05But as someone pointed out, an esteemed co-panelist pointed out
24:09Chirag Paswan's party is supposed to be a Dalit, Mahadalit face
24:14Look at the fact that they actually feel the upper caste
24:17An important, erstwhile Ramvila's Paswan loyalist Suraj Bahan Singh is jumped over to the RJD side
24:25Look at the fact that Nitish Kumarji did fast track courts to arrest the accused then or charged
24:33for the G Krishnaia assault and murder Anand Vaan Singh
24:38On the eve of this election, Anand Vaan Singh is released
24:42So, if all was well, I think the parties would not be relying on the strong arm tactics
24:49And doing everything they could to go to the voters
24:52I think these are highly localized election
24:55Even for each of the stronger political parties
24:58The small votes, the smaller leaders matter
25:01Upender Kushwa, for example, on this side
25:05Very poor track record of being able to win his own elections
25:08Either in Ujjadpur or in Karakat in the last Lok Sabha elections
25:12But the fact that he made a face and he was seen as bargaining for
25:16What was that about?
25:17I mean, he doesn't even win his own seats
25:20One kept quiet
25:22But that wasn't a great show
25:24But yes, definitely the NDA has managed that home better
25:28The other side has not managed that home better
25:30All right, I think that's the right way to sum up this discussion
25:33Thank you so much for joining us, Dr. Pooja Tripathi
25:35Sanjay Kumar, Ajay Alok, Manisha Priyam and Sajjan Kumar
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