- 2 days ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Could we see a stormy spell? Dramatic changes are on the way and it’s all thanks to 2 tropical cyclones. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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You may also enjoy:
– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
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NewsTranscript
00:00Are we in for a stormy spell on Friday night? How wet will it get before then?
00:07And could a tropical tango influence both of those things?
00:12There's an awful lot going on in this week's Met Office Deep Dive.
00:16Welcome along. My name's Alex Deakin. I'm a meteorologist here at Met Office HQ.
00:22Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for watching.
00:24If you could do us a big favor and hit that thumbs up button, give us a like.
00:28That would be brilliant. If you haven't already subscribed to our YouTube channel, then you could do that as well.
00:33This week's Deep Dive is action packed. Got some sexy new graphics to show you as well.
00:39So there's plenty to pack in. I've had to make some notes.
00:42That's how extensive, that's how much I've got to pack into this Deep Dive.
00:46I've actually made some notes and got a bit of a running order.
00:48So I'll be referring to those as we go through.
00:52But yes, lots and lots to talk about.
00:54We'll start, as always, with a look at the satellite picture because it's always a little bit mesmeric watching all these swirls and curls floating by.
01:02But we can pick out a few things from this.
01:05Notice the storm track, as it's known, the way the low pressure system's all pushing up towards Iceland over recent days because the jet stream has been in this position.
01:14But also draw your attention to this little swirl. Doesn't look much here, but it's been crossing Spain, been providing some very heavy rain.
01:21And in particular, over the past 24 hours, if we just pause it there and zoom in, not to the UK for the time being, but across eastern parts of Spain, we've had some very heavy rain in here.
01:33You can just see the thunderstorms blossoming as we've been through Monday, individual cells there, circulation from the remnants, actually, of Gabriel, that old tropical cyclone that we've been talking about for a couple of weeks.
01:47The remnants of it crossed Iberia and it dropped 200 millimetres of rain in and around Valencia during yesterday.
01:54And there's a red warning in place, I think, for Ibiza for today, for further thunderstorms, for further thunderstorms.
02:02But that is now easing. It is all kind of clearing away.
02:05But you can just see those individual storm cells blossoming there across the Balearic.
02:09So we've seen some torrential rain in this part of the world.
02:12But let's zoom out a little bit, concentrate on what's going on across the UK, because, as I said, if we go through the last few days,
02:20you can see that everything's been pushing way up to the north.
02:24These low pressure systems have been developing and angling more away from the United Kingdom.
02:30And the reason for that, if we put the jet stream on, you can see the pattern of it.
02:35It's all pushing the low pressure systems up this way.
02:39It's allowed high pressure to sit in across the UK, certainly dominating across the southern half of the country.
02:45So the start of the week's been calm.
02:47Well, it's, you know, autumn now, so this time of year, now that the nights are longer than the days,
02:52the nights are long enough for things to turn chilly and temperatures have been dropping where we've had clear skies.
02:57And, of course, no isobars across the southern half of the UK.
03:00So the winds have been light, which at this time of year, particularly after a wet first half of September
03:07and the ground's moistened up a little bit, has led to some foggy conditions in the mornings too.
03:12Certainly here in Exeter, we've had a couple of foggy mornings, been some dense patches elsewhere.
03:17Meanwhile, further north, close to the jet stream, close to the low pressure, close to the weather fronts.
03:22It has been a little cloudy and that is going to continue over the next couple of days.
03:28The jet stream remaining active.
03:30And if anything, if we just jump from current time of recording straight forward to Saturday, look at the change.
03:38Look at how the jet stream has got really angry now across the UK and it's dived much further south
03:43and it's helped to spin up this deep area of low pressure.
03:47More on that in a moment, because that is the big feature that's going to cause a few issues,
03:52be the big talking point over the next few days.
03:54But just wanted to show you that switch in the jet stream.
03:57And as it does so, if we go back, as we play through,
04:01notice how the jet just gradually intensifies out across the Atlantic and starts to shift its way further south.
04:08We're seeing more of these weather fronts just drifting in, being pushed along on it.
04:12And they are sitting across western Scotland in particular over the next few days.
04:18And that's going to bring some heavy bursts of rain here.
04:20And then this one in particular, and that interaction with the jet there, that little dip is there.
04:26A little trough actually spins up a low pressure system that pushes its way up towards western Scotland.
04:32As we go through Thursday and Thursday evening especially,
04:36and that low forms in there, going to generate some pretty heavy rain over the next few days.
04:42So we'll see those weather fronts building the rain up.
04:45And then this low in particular, bringing a heavier spell of rain during the course of Thursday night and into Friday.
04:52So that is our first point.
04:53So I did say that, yes, that deep low on Saturday, we need to keep a close eye on that.
04:58But before we get there, we do have to watch this low coming in,
05:01because the rainfall really building up across western Scotland.
05:04Let's take a look at the maps and see what they're showing for the next few days.
05:08So this is the broader outlook, it's a time of recording, generally a fine day for many and temperatures up into the high teens.
05:15The wind's pretty light across England and Wales, stronger winds further north.
05:19And then if we fast forward to Wednesday, you can see that first waving weather front coming in.
05:24So we're going to see some wet weather setting in across western Scotland, and then it lasts through Thursday too.
05:30So that rain just then gets heavy as that next weather system, as that little trough develops this area of low pressure here.
05:38And the rain really peps up as we go through Thursday.
05:41The wind's also notably picking up there.
05:43There's isobots squidging together, so the wind's picking up, especially around Irish sea coasts.
05:48Still quite mild across the east and the south, still generally a lot of fine weather.
05:52So a real southeast-northwest split for the next few days, with much of the south and east dry, fine, quite pleasant, coolish mornings, bit of fog around.
06:02One side of autumn, if you like, and then the other side of autumn, with the wet and windy weather coming in, particularly so to western parts of Scotland.
06:10By the time we get to Friday, we will eventually see some of that rain, or Thursday night really, moving in.
06:15And we will finally start to see some rain on Thursday night, further south and east.
06:20But over the next day or so, we do need to keep our eye on those rainfall totals.
06:25Let's have a look at what they look like.
06:29And let's just play through and build up the rainfall accumulations.
06:34Nothing particularly heavy today, but then it does start to pep up.
06:38The rain will really start to build up as we go through Thursday evening, sorry, Wednesday evening and into the early hours of Thursday morning.
06:45So you can see here, not much rain across the southeast, lots of rain across, yeah, some for northern Ireland, particularly so in the west, but particularly this western side of Scotland.
06:54As the winds pick up, pushing the clouds up the hills, and that generates more rainfall, orographic rainfall, we call it.
07:02As the winds pick up, that rain will be increased.
07:04So the hills and mountains of western Scotland really seeing quite a bit of rainfall by this stage.
07:09So this is the total over the next day or so, those yellow colours, 100 millimetres suggested.
07:14The oranges, hints of orange there, 150 millimetres, and even one or two spots of red where we could see 200 millimetres.
07:20That'll be over the tops of the hills.
07:22But of course, once it's fallen over the hills, it's all got to come down and into the system.
07:26Now, this is a particularly resilient part of the world.
07:29We see quite a bit of rainfall in western Scotland, but, you know, these kind of amounts building up over just that constant nature, building up over 36 hours could cause a few problems.
07:39And you can see that even as we go through into Friday, we don't see the totals building up as much because we do get a bit of a respite.
07:46But certainly through Wednesday and Thursday, those totals building up.
07:49Notice also Dumfries and Galloway also, the model runs yesterday, the computer model runs weren't generating as much rainfall here.
07:58But now right across from Dumfries and Galloway up to the western isles, those totals up to 50 millimetres quite widely.
08:06I'd say a few spots giving 100 millimetres and some places could see a little bit more than that.
08:11So we're a little bit concerned about the rainfall here, which is why we've got a Met Office yellow warning in place.
08:17There is the potential for some disruption as that rain sets in through Wednesday, lasts for most of Thursday.
08:24The warning is invalid, in fact, until the six o'clock on Friday morning for those totals really building up potential to cause some flooding, certainly some travel disruption.
08:33So if you are travelling in parts of western Scotland during Thursday, especially, you know, there could well be delays to public transport and there may be some flooding issues also.
08:43So do keep up to date with the forecast and bear that in mind.
08:48Meanwhile, say across the rest of the UK, the weather's pretty, pretty calm, pretty fine.
08:53Say mist and fog likely to be a bit of an issue, but then some fine weather and some pretty pleasant autumn sunshine with the temperatures around or a little bit above average.
09:04Now, the exact details of that rain coming in, as I said, we've seen model runs oscillate a little bit, how much rain we see across western Scotland.
09:13That is all tied into the bigger picture, which, well, let's run through that now, because if we fast forward to Thursday and this low that's coming in here,
09:25that's the one that will bring the rain on Thursday night, but if we zoom right out, we can actually see that one of the catalysts or one of the factors affecting that rainfall on Thursday is actually way down here in the tropics.
09:44I'd like to introduce you to Umberto and Imelda.
09:49These are tropical weather systems.
09:51Let's put the temperatures on or the air mass temperatures on.
09:56You can see very tropical air down here.
09:58That's Florida.
09:59And these two are tropical weather systems.
10:02Imelda at that time of recording, Tropical Cyclone and Umberto.
10:05I've got to get the pronunciation right because I've been calling it Humberto and that's wrong.
10:10It's Umberto.
10:10Um, what's a Category 5 hurricane at the weekend?
10:18And we've only, it's almost 100 years since we've had back-to-back seasons of hurricanes with two Category 5s.
10:26That was the second Category 5 of this season.
10:28We had two Category 5s last season.
10:30The previous time, the only time recorded we've had back-to-back Category 5s was 1932.
10:38Um, so, yeah, quite rare to have back-to-back Category 5 storms.
10:44It has weakened since.
10:45No longer a Category 5, but it is still a tropical system.
10:49And it is, they're both kind of gradually interacting with each other, as we'll see in a minute,
10:53and pushing further northwards.
10:55And that, in effect, is also going to then impact the jet stream.
10:58Now, at the moment, they're kind of down to the south.
11:02The jet stream's up here.
11:03I'll take the temperatures off because that's a bit misleading.
11:05They're not really interacting with the jet stream at the moment, and the tropical systems tend not to.
11:11But as they drift northwards, Umberto will stop being a hurricane.
11:16It will undergo what's called extra-tropical transition.
11:19We've covered that before on the deep dive.
11:20It will just become a kind of standard area of low pressure.
11:24But when it does that, it also kind of interacts with the jet stream.
11:27Now, normally, we talk about jet streams influencing low pressures and moving them around.
11:32But when you've got a tropical system, particularly with a lot of energy,
11:35then the opposite can be true.
11:38Or can they both kind of feed off each other, and they both can impact things.
11:41So these tropical systems, as they move closer to the jet, they can impact the jet stream.
11:46And what's likely to happen in the first instance, that jet pushes a little, as Umberto pushes further north,
11:53it develops a bit of a kink in the jet stream.
11:55And that influences downstream the shape of the jet and how it picks up this next low that's ahead of it.
12:03This is the one that's bringing western Scotland to rain during Wednesday night into Friday.
12:08So how Umberto affects the jet stream will have downstream consequences
12:14and the effect on this area of low pressure as it approaches the UK.
12:19So some tropical influences, even before we get to the weekend, on this system as it approaches.
12:26Because if it interacts a little bit more, you could see a bit more of a ripple.
12:29That would create more of a dip here, more of a trough.
12:31And that could spin up this low into being a little bit stronger.
12:34And just those subtle shifts will move the rainfall pattern just by, you know, 50 miles or so.
12:40But that could have a big impact about where we see the heaviest rainfall across Scotland
12:44as we go through the next, what, 48 hours to 72 hours.
12:49So the tropical system's already likely to influence things in the medium to short term.
12:56But obviously, these tropical systems are then going to have a big impact on our weather as we head into the weekend too.
13:02Now, at the moment, so those two systems are kind of milling around.
13:07That's Imelda and that's Umberto.
13:09Really quite close together, these two weather systems.
13:12You don't often see these two systems as close as this.
13:16And in fact, I've got a little graphic to show you, courtesy of our tropical cyclone experts, Julian Hemming.
13:24And he spotted this from Michael Lowry, who's done all the analysis on this via social media, Michael R. Lowry.
13:33And he's come together, he's put together this list of the closest Atlantic storms in the past, what's that, 50, almost 60 years.
13:45And you can see that Umberto and Imelda, at just less than 600 miles, come in to the top, what is that, 10?
13:541, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, yes, the top 10.
13:58In at number 10, top of the list, Iris and Karen.
14:02At under 300 miles, they got within each other.
14:07So, really quite rare to have two systems kind of milling around each other.
14:12And when they do get close to each other, they tend to interact.
14:16Now, I've got a nice little picture here to show you, not that one.
14:21This is what Iris and Karen looked like back in, what was it, 95, I think it was.
14:27Let me just check that.
14:29Yeah, back in 95, Iris actually interacted also with another Umberto, I think, at the time.
14:35But this is Iris and Karen, satellite picture from 1995, and those two storm systems interacting.
14:44And you can see that there, the pattern almost of them interlinking.
14:49I haven't got a video, unfortunately, but it's a beautiful little satellite image of those clouds being entrained into one another.
14:56And these tropical cyclones, when they get close enough, within about 800 miles, they can have 850 miles, I think is the kind of threshold that they classify for these tropical cyclones to interact with each other.
15:08And actually, they can start rotating around each other.
15:12Something called the Fujiwara effect, discovered by a Japanese meteorologist back in 1921.
15:19That was when he named it after himself.
15:21The Fujiwara effect, where tropical cyclones, or indeed any cyclone, anything that's rotating, can start to rotate and dance around the other one.
15:30They don't kind of move as you'd expect them to move.
15:32If they were just on their own, it's not the normal shifting patterns of what's going on in the atmosphere that move them.
15:38They will interact each other and start to dance around the central point.
15:42I've got a little video of this happening here.
15:45Now, this is from Saroja, Saroja, and Odette.
15:50These two tropical systems, this is from 2021.
15:55And Saroja actually was quite a powerful storm, one of the most deadly that hit Australia.
16:00So these two storms, you can see them as they're kind of moving around each other here, the two circulations.
16:06So there's a central point, and they can dance around each other.
16:09If one is much bigger than the other, it tends to draw out and kind of subsume the other one gradually.
16:15If they're of the same, similar size, they can eventually kind of collapse on each other and morph into one storm as well.
16:22But what normally happens is that one dominates and gradually sucks energy or sucks, yeah, sucks the energy from another one.
16:29So that's just an example there of the Fujiwara effect from two tropical cyclones back in 2021.
16:36What's happening with our two systems?
16:39So this is the satellite picture from this morning of Umberto and Imelda.
16:45And you can see, actually, that Umberto, the biggest storm, the more powerful storm, it's a hurricane at this stage.
16:49This is just a tropical cyclone.
16:51But actually, some of the outflow, you can see there.
16:54So tropical systems generate their energy from the sea, from the warm seas, a lot of rising air.
16:59But out of the top, that air's got to go somewhere.
17:01So they tend to spew out lines of cloud or cirrus.
17:06And you can see that there.
17:07But you can also see some of it feeding in here to Umberto as well, from Imelda into Umberto.
17:14And perhaps influencing it and weakening it a little bit as some of the upper air, some of the cooler air, then drifts into it.
17:21And that obviously reduces the energy because it's been through the system.
17:25So it's lost its energy.
17:26It's lost its moisture as well.
17:27So cool, drier, then feeding into another system will kind of kill it off a little bit.
17:32Now, these two aren't expected to dance quite beautifully in a fantastic tango like those two we saw earlier in a classic Fujiwara.
17:41But they're definitely already interacting with each other because we don't see tropical systems this close to each other.
17:48Obviously, when that happens, you know, the computer models can struggle a little bit to identify exactly what's going to happen.
17:54So that just adds a little bit of extra uncertainty as well because they don't see this as often.
17:59It's quite a complex interaction.
18:00So this will be a really fascinating study, I imagine, in a few months' time for meteorologists around the world to see what actually does happen and closely monitor those interactions.
18:13But in real time this morning, that is how that system is or those systems are.
18:18And gradually, they're both going to track their way northwards.
18:21That's Bermuda in there.
18:23They're both just going to steer away from Bermuda.
18:25But particularly in Melda, could get close enough to bring some heavy rain and even some strong winds to Bermuda over the next day or so.
18:33But they're both going to track northwards and they're both going to head out away from the warm seas.
18:39So they'll lose their energy a little bit.
18:41And then they're going to interact with the jet stream and they'll both go through post-tropical transition, extra-tropical transition.
18:48And they'll stop being tropical systems.
18:50But they could still impact our weather, kind of.
18:54Let's have a look at what we're expecting to see from these two systems and how we go through this.
19:02So this is where we are at the moment.
19:05I say they're both kind of interacting with each other a little bit.
19:08Imelda is expected to intensify and become a hurricane before drifting northwards.
19:12And instead of kind of rotating around each other, they kind of just, well, Umberto kind of just looks like it pulls Imelda along a little bit.
19:21So they do kind of oscillate a little bit, but they're not really, you know, they're not classically spinning around each other like, like we saw in that, let's put up that over there.
19:30I know the time bar, we are working on getting the time bar to move up there.
19:35People keep suggesting that and it's a very good idea.
19:37And we are working on that because I know it's quite annoying when the presenter is kind of leaning across.
19:41But there you go.
19:42They're not really spinning around each other.
19:45They're just kind of getting pulled across and drift further northwards.
19:51Let's put the air on as well, because still, still the tropical air in here.
19:55But what actually happens, ahead of Umberto, another little low is formed in here.
20:02At this stage, Umberto's stopped being a hurricane.
20:06Now just a kind of post-tropical system.
20:09Imelda taking a while to do the same, but will do it by the end of Thursday.
20:14But then it's this little system in here that forms as Umberto gives rise to another area of low pressure.
20:24And that then tracks its way northwards.
20:25And this little weakness ahead of Umberto and how it interacts with the jet stream.
20:30Well, that will dictate the weather that we see over the weekend.
20:33And it could be pretty lively, to say the least.
20:36So this is Thursday evening going into Friday.
20:41Initially, let's get back to here.
20:43Initially, as this low forms, it's kind of, um, in what we call a right entrance.
20:53So there's a jet streak here.
20:55So the jet, now let's take the temperatures off again.
20:57The jet, whoa, steady.
21:00This is the jet here, high up in the atmosphere.
21:03And we have, when we've got these little kind of sections of the jet,
21:07we have what's called a right entrance to the jet, a left entrance and the right entrance and the left exit are where we see systems developing.
21:18And we've talked about this again before on the deep dive.
21:20And this little system is just in this right entrance section, which allows it to spin up and form into a low.
21:28But the crucial part of the development happens as it crosses the jet through Thursday evening and into Friday.
21:37And then it gets into this section here because now notice those darker purple colors on the jet stream.
21:42The jet's intensified, so it's a stronger jet.
21:45As we get to this left exit portion of this jet, that low is really going to pop.
21:50It's going to really intensify.
21:52I haven't actually checked the numbers on it, but it's going to really intensify in terms of how quickly it deepens.
21:56We'll look at that over the next day or so, no doubt,
21:58because that is going to be a really interesting feature to see how quickly it develops as it crosses the jet.
22:05Now, you've got a lot of complex interactions with the tropical systems and with the jet and everything before that.
22:12This is still three days away.
22:14But how it interacts and how it crosses that strengthening jet will determine where this low goes.
22:20And that is really important because, as you can probably tell, particularly so if I take the jet off,
22:26it's a bit of a powerful low.
22:28It's an intense area of low pressure.
22:30There's a lot of isobars on it.
22:32Just rewind it.
22:33See how it goes from here.
22:35Friday at three o'clock in the morning.
22:38Pop, pop, pop.
22:39The isobars just start jumping out of it because it's really intensifying.
22:42Way more isobars on it.
22:44And just as it gets to the UK and the Republic of Ireland.
22:49So that means we're going to see some strong winds.
22:51At this stage, it's not that deep.
22:54It's not that big a deal in terms of its area of low pressure.
22:56But just in those 24 hours, less than 24 hours, it has developed into a pretty serious area of low pressure with some strong and gusty winds, courtesy of those tightly packed isobars.
23:08So we know it's going to pack a punch, this area of low pressure.
23:11But we also know that a lot has got to happen beforehand for it to get to this stage.
23:17So that develops, that creates uncertainty.
23:20Now, this is what our model is suggesting will happen with the area of low pressure from when we just run the main computer model run once.
23:28But if you watch a lot of our output, if you watch the deep dives and our 10 day trends, you'll know that that's not necessarily the best way to look at these kind of systems.
23:39So what we do is an ensemble forecast where we just shake the initial conditions a little bit.
23:44And that gives us a projection of a number of outcomes and ensemble forecasts where we've got a whole range of different possible solutions to look at.
23:54And that gives us a better probability of certain scenarios happening.
23:58So this is the Met Office raw, the deterministic computer model run.
24:02But what I'm going to show you now is some funky new graphics, courtesy of Mr. McGiven.
24:08He's been working hard on these over the well for many months.
24:12He's kind of the go to graphics guy.
24:14He's been working on these graphics.
24:15I showed a kind of an example of them yesterday during the week ahead.
24:18But this now, if you get to the right time frame, is the ensemble forecast from the European model when it's run 50 times.
24:32So you get the main model run and you shake it up a little bit and you tweak a temperature here, tweak a pressure reading here.
24:41And you get 50 different scenarios and we can show them here now.
24:47So these are the difference.
24:48Each number here represents a different potential forecast.
24:52I've moved it to the time frame we're really interested in, which is overnight Friday into Saturday.
24:57So three o'clock on Saturday morning.
24:59And each of these ones now is showing each of those different ensemble runs.
25:03We used to show you the postage stamps and they were really quite small.
25:07This is basically just showing you that in bigger form.
25:09And just to give you a few examples here.
25:11So that's a pretty deep area of low pressure there.
25:14We can zoom in a little bit.
25:16That's crossing through central parts of Scotland.
25:19The strongest winds with these lows are always going to be kind of in this southwestern quadrant.
25:23That's where the isobars are tightest together.
25:25So that's where the strongest winds can be.
25:27If we look at number seven, that's got the low a little further south, but not as deep.
25:3213 and lucky for some, it's got another one further south across northern England with some of the strongest winds here.
25:37But that is a bit of an outlier, as we will see.
25:39Many more of them have the low up away to the northwest of the, well, not many more of them,
25:45but some of them have the low pressure up here.
25:47Most of them kind of in this scenario where the low is kind of skirting through some parts of Scotland.
25:53Let me show you that by putting this on, which is the track of the lows.
25:59What I'll do, actually, I'll just zoom out a little bit.
26:04So instead of just looking at one, this now is showing the track of all 50 of those.
26:10And that's really quite useful.
26:11It's giving you this cone.
26:12This is from the ECMWF Ensemble.
26:14And it's showing that, yeah, there are one or two that just take the low pressure up across towards Iceland.
26:21A few that have it between the UK and Iceland.
26:24But there are quite a significant chunk of them sending it down across Scotland.
26:28And as we saw, one or two of them a little bit further south with the center of the low,
26:32taking it more into perhaps southern Scotland or maybe even northern England and across northern Ireland.
26:37So we know that a pretty potent area of low pressure is going to be heading in somewhere in this zone.
26:44But I should expect at this kind of time frame, almost four days away, there's a bit of scope on its exact track.
26:51And that will have an impact also on the strength of the wind.
26:54Another way of looking at that is with the Dalmatian plot.
26:59Again, this is data from ECMWF.
27:02Each of these little dots in here, let me just, yeah, the UK is in here, basically.
27:10So that's the UK in there, in case you can't see very well.
27:13But I'll take that off.
27:14Each of these little dots represents a different central position for the low.
27:19And the color represents the intensity.
27:22Now, I'll just zoom in a little bit on that because to help you see a little bit better on that.
27:29Hopefully we can play through that.
27:31There we go.
27:31There's a zoom.
27:32So there's the UK in here, southern England.
27:35Now, these peachy dots are further south than the red and the darker, bright pink colors.
27:41Now, they're the more intense ones.
27:43So generally speaking, the deeper the lows are veering more up to the northwest of the UK.
27:49And the less intense ones, but it's only a matter of a few millibars, are generally speaking a little bit further south.
27:55And we often find that due to the dynamics of the low pressure system.
27:58But that's the cluster of where that low pressure could go.
28:03And say the intensity will determine the strength of the wind.
28:06We are likely to see some pretty strong gusts with this low pressure system, depending on exactly where it goes.
28:13Let's take a look at some of the wind gusts from this system.
28:18Now, this is based on the Met Office model.
28:22So we're not on the ensembles now.
28:23We're just looking at the Met Office model.
28:25And it's showing the winds picking up, actually.
28:28And that first system noticed some pretty strong gusts up there through the Irish Channel.
28:31So we need to keep an eye on that for the Thursday weather system as it comes up.
28:36Some quite strong gusts.
28:37But the strongest gusts then really come in around the low in here.
28:42This is out to sea, but gusts in the 90s of miles an hour out to sea.
28:46And across land, you know, we could easily see those gusts quite a bit higher.
28:49What's that?
28:49In the 60, 70, 80 mile an hour bracket if this were the track of the low.
28:55But as we've seen, there is quite a bit of uncertainty about the exact track of the low.
28:59But that's just to give you the potential for the winds that we could see from this system.
29:03It is going to pack a punch.
29:05It could be further south and a bit less intense.
29:08But that would mean the winds would be a little bit more widespread and potentially, you know, give more people problems from those winds.
29:15Let's look at the scenario.
29:17So let's kind of summarize all of that that we've looked at there with those potential different scenarios.
29:25This is the most likely one.
29:26This is where most of the ensemble tracks take it somewhere across Scotland to the north with its strongest winds on its southern flank.
29:35And this pink zone being where we're most likely to see potentially damaging gusts of wind.
29:41In this kind of scenario, there'd still be some very strong gusts across Northern Ireland, Northern England, North Wales, maybe down to the wash.
29:49And in this kind of scenario, where you've got the low tracking over the Northern Ireland, you see the Northern Ireland may not see some of the strongest winds.
29:55The strongest winds likely in that southwestern quadrant.
29:58So that's the most likely scenario at this stage.
30:02The other scenario that has, as we saw with like member 13 and number 7, was it, that has the low further south.
30:09So the low then tracks its way more across southern Scotland.
30:13And its intensity brings the strongest winds on its southwestern quadrant.
30:17So that could see potentially the more damaging gusts further south.
30:21So across parts of Northern England, through Wales and across Northern Ireland also.
30:26But it also increases the chances of stronger winds further south too.
30:31That is not the most likely scenario, but it is a potential scenario for the system Friday night and into Saturday.
30:38But as we also saw, there is that possibility, least likely scenario, but it could drift away to the north.
30:47That would just bring a spell of pretty strong winds to, well, the north of the Great Glen.
30:51And in this zone, quite a robust area.
30:54They see, you know, regularly see gales.
30:55But still, it would need to be watched because remember, if the low is that further north, it has a greater chance of being deeper and packing more of a punch with some stronger winds.
31:03So they're the kind of three scenarios that we're looking at.
31:06Obviously, I didn't mention the rainfall, but wherever that low is going in, closer to the low, that's where we're going to see some of the heaviest rainfall.
31:15In this scenario, although the low tracks across Northern Scotland, that could give you kind of, you get the rain on its front and its back edge of it.
31:23So Northern Scotland could see the heaviest rain with this system.
31:26And don't forget, this is following on from Thursday's system, which is going to drop a lot of rain already across parts of Western Scotland.
31:33So, you know, the rainfall, even though this low is likely to move through quite quickly, any extra rainfall, depending on how much we see on Thursday, could cause some further impact.
31:41So in this scenario, the wettest weather would be across Northern Scotland.
31:44And in that slightly less likely scenario, but still, you know, possible, we'd see fairly widespread heavy rain across most areas during Friday night and into Saturday morning.
31:55So they're the kind of main three scenarios that we're looking at.
31:58As I say, this is the most likely one, but it's far from set in stone.
32:04And, you know, there's always going to be some degree of variance.
32:08And the reason for that, as we've already seen, a lot of interactions have got to take place.
32:13Those tropical systems interacting themselves just off the east coast of the United States.
32:18Then how they move northwards and interact with the jet stream and spawn this area of low pressure for this potentially stormy spell heading our way Friday night and into Saturday.
32:28Right. I think I've covered everything. Let me just check my notes.
32:34Oh, the other thing I was going to mention, this system does have the potential to be very deep indeed.
32:43And as it develops, could develop into quite a nasty one that could really pack a punch with its winds gusting in behind it.
32:49And there is the possibility, a few indications we could see something called a sting jet tied into that.
32:54Just a possibility at this stage, something we'll have to analyze afterwards.
32:58And it's also likely to pack in quite a bit of rainfall as it crosses.
33:03How am I going to show that?
33:05If we. Yeah, what did I want to show for that?
33:09The rainfall as it comes in. Not that one, that one, I think.
33:19Yeah, there we go.
33:21Notice that line of heavy rain in there.
33:24As it comes through, that is a sign of what we call line convection.
33:28So on the front, as it moves through, you see a really narrow, but very intense band of rain.
33:34The rain suddenly whips up. You get some really gusty winds as well.
33:37So hinting that as that system moves through, it could have some line convection.
33:41Now, don't take that map literally in terms of where it's going to be, because as we've seen, there's a lot of variability in the position of the low.
33:47But that is just signaling quite strongly that this low may well have some line convection as the fronts move through.
33:54So that could be an extra hazard as well.
33:56Line convection is safe weather.
33:57The winds suddenly gust up and you see some torrential rain in a short space of time.
34:02We've got an explainer online convection.
34:04I think we'll try and put that in the description and in the chat.
34:08Speaking of the chat, please put your comments in there.
34:12We do love reading them.
34:13Any questions you've got around the system, we'll obviously be giving you updates throughout the week.
34:18And we'll be looking at it quite a bit on Fridays live, no doubt, which is with myself and Mr. McGiven.
34:25Speaking of the great man, Mr. McGiven, special shout out again for those graphics.
34:29If you like those graphics, the scenario graphics with the different tracks on, then please put a comment about that in the chat as well.
34:38So he's been working very hard on those.
34:39He will have more and probably even more fun and games with these graphics in the 10 day trend tomorrow.
34:45So make sure you catch that. And the obvious way to not miss that, of course, is to subscribe to our YouTube channel.
34:52So while you're there, do give us a like as well as subscribing also.
34:57So, yes, thank you very much for watching. I think that's pretty much it.
35:00Don't forget the live on Friday. Do subscribe. Do give us a like.
35:03One more thing. I've got a shout out. A chap stopped me in the street the other day and he was called Jack.
35:09And he was very complimentary about all the things we do with the deep dive and the 10 day trend.
35:12So thank you for that, Jack. Very strong handshake you had there, Jack.
35:17So thank you for that. Thank you for watching. Thank everyone for watching.
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35:31But thank you very much. And yeah, I'll see you again soon.
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