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00:00At game three, Los Angeles Dodgers favorite at minus 205 in a World Series game.
00:06That's because Max Scherz is on the mound.
00:07Hint, hint.
00:08I'm going to be able to go on my bye-bye-bye and say, you know what?
00:11I'm focused on this World Series game three.
00:13What's your spread line tonight for this game, Joe?
00:15Well, the thing that stuck out to me, Donnie, was the total.
00:18I mean, we saw two seven-and-a-halves in a hitter's ballpark in Toronto.
00:23Now this opened up at eight.
00:25Now we're seeing eight-and-a-halves.
00:26The overmoney is what's interesting to me, and it can't be because the starting pitching got worse for the Dodgers, Donnie, can it?
00:34No, Max Scherzer, let's wave that white flag tonight.
00:38Could it be an easy Dodgers victory?
00:39We'll hit this game much more in our number two.
00:41Interesting stuff here.
00:42Before we get you out of here, Tom, World Series game number three is tonight.
00:45Monster favorite for the Dodgers.
00:471-1 series as it heads back to L.A.
00:49Any thoughts tonight on this game?
00:51Scherzer needs to go at least five innings with two runs or fewer.
00:56Or this game is flying over because if the Blue Jays cannot – if it gets to Blue Jays' bullpen and the Scherzer's already given up three runs, this game's going way over.
01:06I smell team total possibility and bye-bye-bye coming up a little bit later in the show.
01:10That's how we get down.
01:11We always like to thank Tom for rising and grinding with us early on a Monday.
01:14Play a little armchair quarterback.
01:16Thank you, Tom.
01:16We'll talk to you soon.
01:17As for Donnie and Joe, we'll be right back after this short break.
01:20Donnie right side in Joe Ranieri, the early line on a Monday.
01:23Hey, it's football season.
01:24It's armchair quarterback.
01:25Yes, did you know the World Series was going on?
01:27Because we had two pretty good games from Friday night into Saturday night, which left us with a 1-1 series and a travel day on Sunday before we take another game, game number three, at Chavez Ravine tonight.
01:37We're going to handicap that game in just a few moments.
01:39But to recap what happened, Joe, I told you, I like the over in game number one.
01:4315 total runs, Blake Snell was hit, grand slams, popping off the Blue Jays, finally bloodied the Dodgers in game number one to take that 11 or take it 11 to four and a 1-0 series lead.
01:54Yeah, it was, to say the least, an interesting turn of events here between game one and game two here because you kind of had to scratch your head and go, wow, if Toronto can do this, this and game one, like how many runs are we getting?
02:12And yet, you know, for game two, Donnie, they came out and, well, wouldn't you know it, the total was still seven and a half in that game two.
02:19What a totally different outcome.
02:22Crazy stuff because then that flip around Saturday where the pressure was on the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road, you don't want to go down 0-2, even though you're headed back home for three games.
02:31So they lean toward Yamamoto and be like, yeah, it's your time of the year.
02:33Just throw complete games and don't worry about our bullpen.
02:36He did exactly that.
02:37The Jays scored 11, game one, one running game two and only four hits.
02:41The Dodger bats came alive and came up with the victory to even the series, Joe, 1-1 Saturday night.
02:47If you can protect that bullpen with your starting pitching, if that's Dave Roberts, then you are good to go here in this series and you will win it again.
02:59The problem seems to happen, and we've talked about it all season long, is what happens if your starting pitching can't go five innings or only five innings and then you've got to hobble together the second half of the game with bullpens.
03:11I mean, both these bullpens aren't great, Donnie, and that's the fear here if you're backing either the Dodgers or the Blue Jays in this series.
03:22Absolutely.
03:23Which then swings our attention to game number three tonight, 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 o'clock out there Pacific.
03:28A heavy favorite for the Toronto Blue, excuse me, for the Dodgers today going up against the Toronto Blue Jays.
03:33The reason I bring up Toronto is Max Scherzer's going to get the call.
03:36He gutted out his last start, but Max Scherzer is just not a good pitcher.
03:40And this was a thought probability, Joe, before the series started.
03:43Every single game the Dodgers are going to pitch, there's no, hmm, wonder who we're going to put out there and wonder how he'll do.
03:48You're expected an ace performance out of the Dodgers when Toronto's now in that mode of,
03:53I hope we can get a couple innings here and piecemeal this game together.
03:57That's why we have a minus 205 price point as a favorite towards the Dodgers and a total listed at 8.
04:03Monster favorite.
04:04Toronto has shown that they can bring out the bats.
04:06They scored 11 runs game number one, shut down in game number two.
04:09Can they bounce back tonight?
04:10But more importantly, can you take that, let's call it, plus 172 price and say, let me roll Toronto tonight?
04:18I can't because I think, you know, expecting Mad Max, you know, another one of these 40-year-old pitchers here,
04:25to come up and have enough left in a tank after he saved them against Seattle.
04:30You know, to do it now on the road against the Dodgers, a team in which, you know, let's face it, he played for them and then left them hanging when all of a sudden he couldn't pitch in the postseason when he was there and they ended up losing that series.
04:46So, yeah, I don't.
04:48I think there is, again, a clear advantage in starting pitching for the Dodgers, only this time they're in their building and we're going to have to get a lot of innings out of this bullpen.
04:59I don't think Scherzer's going six or seven here to save them tonight.
05:04I think this is a game that could very well get ugly early.
05:07And this tells you everything you need to know, Joe.
05:11Like we talk about in the props tonight for that Monday Night Football game, everybody loves touchdown props.
05:15The same thought process comes through when you're talking about home run props in Major League Baseball.
05:19As I'm looking at some of the pricing, we're in the World Series now.
05:22So, you're just like, hey, sometimes harder to score here.
05:24It's not an 11 and a half total.
05:26You're not playing in Colorado.
05:27Shohei Otani's price point tonight to hit a home run, Joe, plus 146.
05:33Plus one.
05:33That should be to get a base hit.
05:35No, no, no, people.
05:35That's to hit a home run tonight.
05:37So, when I read odds, that's me saying a certain book is telling you, don't you dare bet this.
05:43We know he's going deep.
05:44You do too.
05:45But we're not going to give you a fair price.
05:47Plus 146 in a Otani home run?
05:49What world am I living in?
05:51I don't know.
05:52I mean, that is not a good bet.
05:55That is not a favorable bet for you in any way, shape, or form.
05:59The idea that we got a less than two to one chance of him actually getting a pitch that he likes in order to be like, no, no.
06:06Not to mention, it's not like he's been crushing the ball.
06:09He had one good game in the postseason, the one that he pitched.
06:13And outside of that, what has he done that we've missed here?
06:18Exactly.
06:19And by the way, player strikeouts, Joe.
06:21Max Schurz are over 4.5.
06:23That's juiced at a plus 118 price.
06:26You take a look at Tyler Glass now.
06:27Over 5.5.
06:29Minus 152.
06:30The expectations for one pitcher to strike guys out.
06:33One pitcher to not strike guys out.
06:35Hour number two coming up on a Monday morning edition of the Early Line.
06:38Love to see it.
06:40So, you're talking about killing in high spreads here.
06:42You're getting that Major League Baseball tonight, Joe.
06:44World Series game number three, Chavez Ravine, 8 p.m. Eastern tonight.
06:48And a minus 205 favorite at most outlets right now as it sits for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
06:53And a total starting to see the eight and a halves creep in.
06:56And I agree with it.
06:57I think the Dodgers bats come alive.
06:59They pick up a victory tonight over the Jays and Max Scherzer.
07:02Yeah, this is going to be these next three games in L.A.
07:06Is really, do we get back to Toronto?
07:10We may not here because the pitching advantage is clearly in favor of one team,
07:16which is why these totals are starting to go up.
07:18Yeah, take a look here at Otani World Series NDP.
07:21He's listed at a plus 180 price.
07:23Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at a 6-1 price.
07:25Basically, ascending.
07:26If Otani and the Dodgers win, it's going to be Otani.
07:29And again, if the Toronto Blue Jays win it, it's going to be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
07:32But watch out there.
07:34For anybody that comes up big and hits home runs,
07:35those numbers can change certainly in the blink of an eye.
07:39What a show on the early line.
07:41It's how we get down to business, people.
07:42When you show up at the water cooler this morning,
07:44you have all the information you need to know to show your coworkers
07:47you are in the know, people.
07:49It's Sonny Wrightside and it's Joe Ranieri.
07:51And talking about being in the know,
07:52we talk all show long to let you know the information.
07:55But sometimes, Joe, we like to reach out to the people
07:57and find exactly what they know.
08:00Here's our Fade the Public Poll.
08:09I think we got an easy one today, people.
08:11If you're not following along at SportsGrid on X,
08:14what the heck are you doing?
08:15We ask questions that we need responses to
08:18on some of the biggest topics across the sports landscape,
08:20which includes, Joe, tonight's World Series game number three.
08:24The question we asked in our Fade the Public Poll today,
08:26who do you think will win game three of the World Series?
08:30No lines required here, just a simple yes or no.
08:33Are you going to vote for the Dodgers?
08:34Are you going to vote for the Blue Jays?
08:36And it's not surprising to me,
08:3862% of the people are voting for the Dodgers this morning.
08:41The only surprise to me is that number, Joe, is not actually higher.
08:45People believing in the Blue Jays tonight with Mad Max on the mound.
08:48Yeah, especially given the fact that, what,
08:52they're a two-to-one favorite right now, right, Donnie,
08:55for this full game.
08:57So, yeah, no, it's – I agree the Dodgers are going to win game three,
09:03but it probably – I'm shocked that it's not a little bit higher,
09:08especially given the history of Toronto this year
09:11not being the same team on the road that they have been at that Rogers Center.
09:15I, again, from fandom, I don't like the Dodgers, I don't like Toronto.
09:19I just like to see series extended, gives us better opportunities,
09:22more things to talk about being on the air,
09:24and more importantly, just fun as a fan.
09:26High leverage situations, Joe, game six and game seven,
09:28the big hit, the big pitching performance,
09:30the big error at the end of the game.
09:31We love to see that.
09:32I'm hoping, though, that we do see this series return back to Toronto,
09:36whether or not who has the lead, if it's Toronto or L.A.
09:38Just give me the games six or game seven.
09:41Now, new week, new monies, we like to say here,
09:43Friday night picked up a victory on a total.
09:45I'm heading back to the World Series, but this is Bye-Bye-Bye, people.
09:55Mad Max on the mound.
09:57He wants to party tonight, Joe, like it's 1999.
10:00Where are we going tonight?
10:01We got football.
10:02We got hockey.
10:03We got basketball.
10:05We got everything you need to know.
10:06Is it a World Series pick for you today, Joe?
10:08Hmm?
10:09Oh, it is absolutely a World Series pick here.
10:13And, Donnie, I've been saying it from the get-go.
10:15There is a clear advantage the Dodgers have in not just game one or game three
10:21or maybe game.
10:22In every game, the Dodgers have a clear edge in starting pitching.
10:28And it's even more pronounced here tonight with Glass now on the mound
10:32taking on Max Scherzer, who was fantastic and gutsy in all of those things
10:38in that game against Seattle to save them when they needed him, too.
10:43But that was Seattle, a team that strikes out 30% of the time.
10:47And they had, Donnie, you know, he had nine balls hitting that game at 95 miles an hour
10:53or higher exit velocity and only one went over the fence.
10:57You are not missing enough bats to go into L.A.
11:01and to beat this Dodgers team, Max Scherzer.
11:04So, my advice would be, I'll look, I don't like either bullpen.
11:08So, I am going to take the Dodgers in the first five.
11:11I'll lay the half a run.
11:12The advantage in the edge, too much for me to ignore, Donnie, in the first five here.
11:18Glass now will limit the Blue Jays.
11:21Scherzer will not limit the Dodgers.
11:23I'll lay the half a run in the first five.
11:25You got it.
11:26Let's double down because the minute I heard Max Scherzer,
11:29there's two ways I wanted to go in this game.
11:30I was like, you know what?
11:31Do I just go with the game total to the over?
11:32That's eight.
11:33And I agree it should go over, but it's shifting to eight and a half.
11:35And I agree with that line movement because I do think we get runs.
11:37Or should we just keep it simple?
11:39Is it the Dodgers to win?
11:40But people don't really, hey, Don, it's a minus 200.
11:42Of course, you're going to win.
11:43You just saw that poll question that we had.
11:45Majority think people are the Dodgers.
11:46But if the Dodgers are going to win this game,
11:47I just don't see it being in a two-to-one game.
11:49And also, just looking at Max Scherzer's statistics,
11:55which means, Joe, six, seven, eight, and nine for the Dodgers
11:58against the bullpen.
12:00I look at the Dodgers tonight and say,
12:01what's this final score look like?
12:03Six to three, somewhere in that range.
12:05And that's a victory for LA.
12:07But more importantly, Joe, team total over four and a half
12:09for the Los Angeles Dodgers at minus 111.
12:11Four and a half feels like ten and a half in the regular season.
12:13Like, ooh, that number's high.
12:15You can't get five.
12:16That number's there for a reason.
12:17The Dodgers hit tonight, and they get five-plus runs.
12:19And I cash in this ticket.
12:21And why not, Joe?
12:22Let's get a five-to-one lead at the end of the fifth
12:24so then we can get a 2-0 sweep tonight with the Dodgers.
12:28Yeah, and it's all about the starting pitching, Dottie.
12:31And by the way, the Dodgers have won the last seven games
12:35started by Tyler Glass now here.
12:37So looking to make it an eight with a lot of runs tonight.
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