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00:00Major League Baseball, we love it. We love to bet it. We love to watch it. It's a hump day Wednesday.
00:04It's a perfect day to sink your teeth back into baseball. So many times, Joe, we talk about, look, it's the month of September.
00:09We know you love your football out here, but don't you dare turn your back on the Major League Baseball season.
00:14There's some angles, some fun you can have, and also afternoon baseball on a Wednesday to get you over that hump day into Thursday where you watch the NFL.
00:21Who says no? Not me and not Joe Ranieri.
00:24Let's get after some action here. 975, 976 on the rotation. A 235 start today.
00:29Milwaukee and Texas. That's Peralta and Kelly.
00:32And if we line this game up overnight, minus 135s in the marketplace, that's now gone.
00:37They're moving higher here. FanDuel, minus 142. DraftKings, minus 148.
00:41BetMGM, minus 145. Those numbers are on the move in a total, Joe, of 7.5.
00:46Any thoughts on Milwaukee and Texas for you today in the afternoon?
00:52Well, heck of a pitcher's battle, right?
00:53Good old Freddie Peralta versus Merrill Kelly here.
00:57And, I mean, don't look now, but it looks like the Rangers might just sweep the Brewers.
01:05But Rolta has been unbelievable, Donnie, over the last month here.
01:10His last five starts, right? No runs allowed.
01:14He had a scoreless, I believe, ending streak now that rested, what, 29?
01:18But he labored his last time out last Thursday against your Philadelphia Phillies here.
01:25So, can the Rangers do the same? They are hot. Make no mistake about it.
01:29Texas, 13-17, I believe, now putting the pressure on both Seattle and Houston.
01:36So, the Rangers have won the last three starts for Merrill Kelly.
01:40He, too, 1.77 ERA in those last three starts.
01:44This is a dead under to me. There is no way I'm expecting an early start we're going to get some sort of crazy offensive output from either of these teams.
01:54I'll take the first five under. I think it's four, Donnie.
01:57And I think this is going to be a pretty good pitcher's duel for a while in this game.
02:02Gotcha. I don't think we're in the pitcher's duel in this next game we're going to talk about,
02:05even though it is a true pitcher's ballpark out there on the West Coast.
02:08So, it's Arizona and San Francisco, this game taking place in San Francisco at an all-team total yesterday on the Diamondbacks.
02:13Just needed three runs. Joe, what'd they got for me?
02:15Yeah, they got me three runs. Thank you, Diamondbacks.
02:17But a victory there for San Francisco, trying to close that gap here on the New York Mets and make the playoffs.
02:22My goodness. Seymour is going to be on the mound. Not myself.
02:25That's Carson Seymour here, the favorite in this game.
02:28Actually, he's not really a favorite anymore. Minus 115, minus 110.
02:31Caught roughly a pick-em here in the total.
02:32Let's listen, at eight, between eight and eight and a half, depending on where you're shopping at.
02:35Rodriguez, bad pitcher. Seymour, not a great pitcher.
02:39Joe, I never like to go over the total there in San Francisco.
02:42Afternoon game, balmy 69 degrees.
02:45Sign me up for the over eight today. Let's go.
02:48Well, the power surge continues for the Giants, Donnie, right?
02:51Seven home runs in two games.
02:53They won 11-5 and 5-3 in the first two games.
02:57They're getting ready for the sweep here.
03:00I mean, that's not exactly conducive to a home run ballpark there.
03:05But the power is there now.
03:07They're really starting to hit the ball.
03:08There is no reason to think they can't continue both these guys.
03:11I mean, Rodriguez is a gas can, too.
03:13Who are we kidding?
03:14And we know that Arizona can chip in a few runs.
03:19I'm kind of with you here, man.
03:20I think runs are coming.
03:23And I'd even look early, too.
03:24Maybe a team total over two and a half in the first five for the San Francisco Giants.
03:30There you go.
03:31Giants stay hot at home.
03:32Close that gap.
03:33Make the playoffs.
03:34We'll see if it plays out here.
03:35No other two teams fighting for playoff spots.
03:37The Phillies look like they have the NL East all but wrapped up with a nine-game lead.
03:41And we sit here on September the 10th.
03:43They're going up against Clay Holmes tonight.
03:44But they got their ace on the mound.
03:46Christopher Sanchez, heavy favorite for the Phillies, Joe, in that middle of the minus 170s.
03:50You see the placard coming up there to minus 172.
03:52We're as high as minus 176 at DraftKings right now.
03:55Now, the total, which opened up at eight, that's now dropped across the board at just
03:59about every outlet to seven and a half now.
04:01Holmes versus Sanchez.
04:03Do the Phillies break out the bats once again and embarrass the Mets and have a 10-game lead
04:07when it's all said and done tonight, Joe?
04:09Do they?
04:11Well, again, it's the lesser split for the Mets.
04:13They're not great against left-handed pitching.
04:15We saw that last night with especially elite left-handers like Ranger Suarez last night.
04:20Well, what are you going to get now from Christopher Sanchez, who is what?
04:24I mean, when you look at his last couple of starts, Donnie, he has been absolutely lights
04:30out here.
04:31And yeah, got to give the edge to Philadelphia early.
04:34And that would be another first five for Philly for me jumping all over the Mets pitching.
04:40Nine is the lead.
04:42And also nine, Joe, is the actual magic number for the Philadelphia Phillies.
04:45The Phillies win.
04:46You take two more off there.
04:47It'll go to eight to seven by the end of the night.
04:50Could be incredible here.
04:50We'll watch as this one plays out.
04:52We're going to set the table for the next one because we talked about it a couple of
04:55times during the show already.
04:56New York Yankees, a two to nothing lead yesterday on the Detroit Tigers at home in the Bronx.
05:00Twelve unanswered runs scored by the Detroit Tigers.
05:02They're going to get it going once again in the Bronx tonight, starting at 705, 969, 970
05:07on the rotation.
05:08Flaherty versus Rodon.
05:10Both of these lines look really good.
05:12The Yankees against right into pitching and certainly the Tigers against left-handed pitching.
05:16Let's handicap this one and see if those Yankees can afford another loss or if they even
05:20are going to take a loss tonight for baseball up next.
05:23The Yankees win.
05:25Will they tonight?
05:26We'll find out.
05:27Flaherty versus Rodon as we teed it up before the break here.
05:29Joe, heavy favor for the Yanks once again with Rodon on the mound.
05:32Minus 168s, minus 172s across the sports betting landscape and a total that's listed at eight.
05:37Flaherty, Rodon, two pretty good pitchers, but the lineups look really good today.
05:41Could we get runs in the Bronx?
05:42We got them yesterday, at least from a Detroit side.
05:46Yeah, we did from the Detroit side on what was a cold and big wind blowing in last night
05:52didn't make a difference for Detroit because, well, they had to face the Yankee bullpen.
05:57And when that happens, yeah, nine runs usually come in the seventh inning, which is exactly
06:02what we saw.
06:03But listen, Rodon has been the guy for the Yankees, especially down this stretch here,
06:08right?
06:08He has been the stopper.
06:10He's what Garrett Cole was for him the last couple of years.
06:14That is the role he is right now.
06:15When they have needed him, he has shown up here.
06:19And now that they lost ground on the Blue Jays, every win is important.
06:24And I think having your ace on the mound kind of makes you forget about what's going on with
06:28the bullpen situation there.
06:30So, yeah, I'm good, man.
06:32I mean, he's what, 5-0?
06:342.05 ERA has passed five starts, one earned run in six innings.
06:38Last time out at Houston, I think he's good to go in this one, too.
06:43It will only be Yankees for me here.
06:46Paul Skeen should be good to go tonight here.
06:47He's going to win the Cy Young in the National League.
06:50But also, we're going to probably get one of those awkward videos where he's in some sort
06:53of like a chair and Libby Dunn's in the room and he gets prevented with his Cy Young
06:58award.
06:59It's kind of awkward at that point.
07:00But before we get there, he's a favorite today.
07:02Minus 155 or so as a price point across multiple marketplaces and a total of seven and a half.
07:07Skeen's Wells, Pittsburgh.
07:08And Baltimore, Skeen should be able to dominate today.
07:11Keep that score low.
07:12No?
07:13Well, I mean, it's a red-hot Orioles team.
07:16They've won six of their past seven games.
07:18The Pirates have now lost four straight.
07:22And not to mention that, you know, sometimes I'd rather be lucky than good, right?
07:26The Orioles' last three wins have all been in walk-off fashion with walk-off hits.
07:32So, they are getting it done one way or the other.
07:35And Tyler Wells going for Baltimore.
07:38You know, it's his second appearance of the season coming off the IL.
07:41He was really good in San Diego.
07:44He held the Padres to one run, five hits.
07:46Didn't walk anybody.
07:48He went five innings there.
07:50Listen, it's pretty simple here.
07:52The Pirates and Skeens is always a first five under for me, no matter who he plays.
07:56So, it's three and a half the total.
07:59Yeah, this could very well be a big pitcher's battle early on once again.
08:03But Baltimore, 14-3 all-time in the regular season against the Pirates.
08:09Don't you worry, Pirates fans out there.
08:11Bob Nutting's got your back in the offseason.
08:13You're going to sign a ton of free agents, and you're going to win a lot next year.
08:16Enjoy your ballpark.
08:17Not at that point.
08:19That ain't happening here.
08:20How about Houston and Toronto?
08:21Two teams in first place looking to stay there, Joe.
08:24It's Alexander vs. Barrios on the mound.
08:267.07 start north of the border.
08:28The total was at 8.5 to 9, depending on where you're shopping.
08:31But a favorite here for Toronto.
08:32Opened up at minus 130 as a price point.
08:34Starting to move a little bit further north.
08:36132s, 137s are out there in the marketplace.
08:39Do we get a walk-off winner?
08:40Can Houston stave off the Mariners?
08:43Can you get the Toronto Blue Jays to keep that three-game lead over the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees today?
08:48What gives?
08:50Yeah, well, what gives is last night was kind of hard for Houston
08:54because they had just gotten Garcia back from Tommy John surgery.
09:00And his rehab, he had a couple of delays, but he had already pitched up once.
09:05And then he gets out there, I think, in the second inning.
09:08And he's pointing to his elbow, and he had to get out.
09:11They had to go to the bullpen.
09:12Just a rough situation there for the Astros.
09:17They got some injuries going on here, and it looks like Garcia is going to have to go back to the IL, which is unfortunate.
09:24Having said that, they did lead that game until the bullpen blew it there.
09:28So, I think Houston is in bounce-back mode.
09:32And plus money, I think they're a pretty good bet here to go up against Barrios and get the better of them.
09:38Two teams that absolutely win today, the Cincinnati Reds and the San Diego Padres.
09:42They happen to play each other today.
09:44Abbott, the lefty-billion now, going up against the right-hander, Nick Pavetta.
09:47959-960 on the rotation, Joe.
09:49And 840, start out on the West Coast.
09:51If you look at the side perspective, boy, it opened up heavy.
09:53Minus 198 as a favorite towards San Diego.
09:56We backtrack mightily here, 168s, 169s, 165s in the marketplace, and a total that's listed at 7.5.
10:03It was a walk-off victory.
10:04What was the final score of that game?
10:06Was it a walk-off?
10:06Did I get that wrong yesterday on that one?
10:08But it is today, Cincinnati and San Diego.
10:10What gives you this game for you, Joe?
10:13Well, I mean, the Reds need Abbott to get back to what he was going into the All-Star break, right?
10:218-1, 2.07 ERA.
10:23Yeah, but not good after the break.
10:2621 earned runs and nine starts since that All-Star break.
10:290-5, not good here at all.
10:33So they're going to need Abbott to turn things around here and get it done.
10:38It looks like mechanically he had been dealing with some issues.
10:41We'll see if he gets it straight here.
10:43But again, at this ballpark with these two pitchers, feels like an under to me.
10:507.5, that's the only way I would look.
10:52Less runs in this game.
10:54Yeah, 4-2 yesterday was not a walk-off.
10:56Their win for the Cincinnati Reds as they move on and try to get closer there to the Giants or stay with the Giants and maybe surpass the New York Mets.
11:03A lot of interesting stuff.
11:04And again, don't forget about baseball, as we said.
11:06Just in the handicapping way, yes.
11:07But also the standings, man.
11:08So many of these games mean so much more now with the advent of the extra wildcard position.
11:13Fun to watch it down the stretch.
11:14Wildcard position possibly here for the Seattle Mariners.
11:16They're going to take on the St. Louis Cardinals.
11:18No chance of a wildcard position.
11:20McGreevy's on the mound going up against Gilbert.
11:22Monster favorite.
11:23Minus 235 overnight here.
11:25We're still sitting at minus 225, minus 233s, minus 230s in the marketplace.
11:31And a total that's listed at 7.5.
11:32I think this could be another easy win tonight for those Mariners here over the Cardinals, Joe.
11:38Yeah, I agree.
11:39And I would almost look to fade the Cardinals offense, especially at this ballpark against Logan Gilbert here.
11:47I don't think a lot of runs are coming from the Cardinals.
11:51I think this is an under.
11:53And I think it's a team total under for the Cardinals here.
11:56Ooh, how about that?
11:57Yeah, Carr.
11:57It's not always tough to get extra hits up there.
11:59Yesterday, if you had a team total in Seattle, that big cash in here.
12:02I thought Seattle was the better team yesterday.
12:03Rightfully so.
12:04As a favorite, they won.
12:05You know, it was another big, heavy favorite.
12:07We'd be getting used to this for the Dodgers.
12:08We expected this for much of the year.
12:10Didn't see it all that much.
12:11Why?
12:11Because the Dodgers not having as grandiose a season as some might have thought.
12:15But they've been a $3 favorite or higher every game against the Rockies so far.
12:19That doesn't change tonight.
12:21A 10-10 start on the West Coast.
12:22Kyle Freeland, the lefties on the mound, going up against Blake Snell, another lefty.
12:26This line opened up, Joe, overnight at FanDuel at minus 4.05.
12:31Now, granted, I don't know if anybody's going to bet that up higher, but most people will
12:34see them against a baseball game.
12:35Anything can happen.
12:36I'm going to take a bite of that.
12:38And they did.
12:38Now we're seeing minus 350s, minus 360s in the marketplace in a total of eight and a half.
12:42But the Dodgers, just monster favorites over that walking dead team, the Colorado Rockies.
12:48Yeah, but the problem is Dodgers also don't hit lefties worth of anything.
12:54And Kyle Freeland, for all his issues, is actually not a bad lefty here.
12:59So I think everyone's expecting Dodgers blowout.
13:04If it happens, it'll have to happen in the latter half of this game here.
13:07So I'd be looking to go contrarian and look to back maybe Colorado early in this one,
13:14especially maybe a first five under, because I don't think either offense is going to have
13:18a ton of success.
13:20Yeah, take a look at Kyle Freeland.
13:22We're going to find out.
13:22I have him 20th on my card at a 31 today, Joe.
13:25450 ERA past 45 days, a 440 Sierra number.
13:28And then we take a look at Blake Snell, who's up higher on that chart at sixth overall with
13:32a 351 ERA and a 2.74 ERA.
13:35I'm interested to see how the Dodgers down the stretch handle their pitching staff here,
13:38because if they can line up with some of those stud pitchers healthy going to the playoffs,
13:41that will help.
13:42But the one thing we can agree upon, those bats really need to wake up for the Los Angeles
13:45Dodgers.
13:46They're way more talented to get the results.
13:48Now, granted, they won last night, scored some decent runs, but overall, it used to
13:51be, man, you don't get a breather in that Dodgers lineup.
13:54If they get back to that before Major League Baseball starts the playoffs, Joe, that's really
13:57going to help them out.
13:59Yeah, well, they're going to need to figure it out in a big way here, because they have
14:03been very hot or cold here down the stretch in the second half, Donnie.
14:07And it was a rough road trip.
14:09It's good to get home and you get to face the Rockies.
14:12But tougher competition lies ahead for them.
14:15They need to figure it out.
14:17Exactly.
14:18Fun times down the stretch, as we pointed out in Major League Baseball, it is the month
14:21of September.
14:22There's about three weeks left to go.
14:23Playoff baseball is spectacular.
14:25It's sensational.
14:25It happens in the afternoon and we love to see it.
14:28But before we get there, there's a lot of baseball that needs to be played.
14:30It's also a lot of handicaps.
14:32Don't get yourself caught up.
14:33Oh, baseball's dead in September.
14:35Yes, the taxes are higher on the teams that have to win versus the teams that have given
14:38up.
14:38But there's still money to be made, people.
14:40Team total still sit out there.
14:46Joe got a dub last night.
14:48He's ready to double down.
14:49What do you got today, Joe, for the people?
14:51Well, it's Paul Skeen's day.
14:53So let's go to Baltimore, where Pittsburgh is going to try to salvage this and not get
15:00swept.
15:00But they'll have a good opportunity to do it with Skeen's on the mound early.
15:05But, you know, Skeen's on the road is not what Skeen's has been at PNC Park.
15:10And Pittsburgh has now lost four straight games, while the Orioles now have won six of their
15:17last seven.
15:18So they are doing pretty well, and they've got a pretty good pitcher on the mound in
15:23Wells.
15:23Tyler Wells making his second start coming off the I.L.
15:27This was an unfortunate injury for Baltimore because this kid is going to be a very, very
15:34good pitcher for this organization.
15:36He shut down San Diego a week ago in his first start on the road.
15:40Let's face it, Pittsburgh bats.
15:43Yeah, I'm not worried about it on the road.
15:44They've lost four straight for a reason.
15:46So while I already told you the first five under three and a half runs, I'm going to
15:52take the run and a half with Baltimore here for the full game, because I think once Skeen's
15:57gets removed, yeah, the sky is the limit for the red hot Baltimore Orioles right now.
16:03I'll take that run and a half with the home team.
16:06I had a hot streak busted up yesterday by the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets
16:09trying to stay under eight and a half runs.
16:11Took nine to beat me.
16:12They got 12.
16:13Understand this.
16:13There was four runs scored up until the seventh inning.
16:15Thought I was in cruise control.
16:17Not the case here.
16:18Bats busted out.
16:18Oh, well, new week, new money, new day, new money.
16:21For me, I'm just going to keep it simple.
16:22And that's been really effective.
16:24I take a look at the Marlins and the Nationals.
16:25What kind of boring game is that?
16:27Why would you go to that game?
16:28And maybe it's not a great pitch or excuse me, hitting environment.
16:30It doesn't matter.
16:31You got to take a look at the pitchers here.
16:32I have Jake Irvin, pitcher for the Washington Nationals, the worst pitcher on the card today.
16:37An 8.86 ERA over the past 45 days, a 5.45 XFIP, and a 5.70 Sierra number, which is the
16:45worst on the card that we have.
16:47Yuri Perez, which actually had a decent year for the Marlins.
16:49He's starting to fade now, Joe.
16:51A 5.88 ERA past 45 days and a 4.96 XFIP number.
16:56Don't love the lineups, but I can't stand these pitchers.
16:59I'm going over eight and a half runs in a game that, if you need some runs late, these
17:03bullpens should be able to give it to you, Joe.
17:06Feeling a 2-0 night for the boys as we wake up tomorrow and the NFL will be back for us.
17:12Washington, Miami, over, over, over.
17:16I mean, Donnie, listen, Washington quietly is red hot right now and crushing the ball.
17:21Eight and a half.
17:22They can score eight runs themselves in this game.
17:25So, yeah, I like the over spot for you.
17:27Absolutely.
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