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00:00We've got a full Tuesday slate in Major League Baseball.
00:03That's all 30 clubs.
00:04That's 15 games on the diamond.
00:07And the brilliant baseball mind of one DRS is here to break it all down.
00:13DRS, we continue with our Southern California rivalry late night tonight
00:17out in SoCal, specifically San Diego, as the Padres host the Dodgers
00:22for game number two of this three-game midweek set.
00:25Again, these two teams will face off next week in the midweek
00:28for a four-game series in Los Angeles.
00:31The Dodgers taking game one, the first matchup this year,
00:35between these NOS divisional foes, winning eight to seven in extras.
00:40Pitcher listed right now, as I see it, on FanDuel for San Diego,
00:44it's Dylan Cease.
00:45And the Padres, an ever-so-slight favorite, minus 110.
00:49Minus 106 on the other side for LA,
00:52who have only been booked as an underdog 12 times this season.
00:56DRS, total eight and a half.
00:58Are you seeing a starter named by Dave Roberts just yet?
01:02I have one showing Sauer is the starter.
01:06Let me see if I can get something on the opposite side here.
01:08Let's see.
01:09I see Sauer in both locations that I'm looking at here.
01:12Now, granted, when you take a look at a guy named Matt Sauer,
01:14not a lot this season.
01:1578 total batters that he's faced, only 39 in the last 30 days.
01:19But here's the interesting part about this again.
01:21We talked about it.
01:22Close line, you always favor the Los Angeles Dodgers.
01:25This might be a little bit different because we don't have a pedigree pitcher, per se,
01:28on the mound for Matt Sauer.
01:30He's struggled over the past 39 batters he's faced to a 278 ISO power number.
01:35Not a great lineup hitting-wise against right-handed pitching for those Padres
01:39over the past 30 days.
01:4068-degree temperatures.
01:41But here's what I want to focus on, though.
01:43It's Dylan Cease on the opposite side.
01:45Of course, we know the Dodgers have a better lineup than the San Diego Padres tonight.
01:48Cease's numbers over his past 114 batters, they're not great, Ben.
01:52It's a 192 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of 314, which isn't that bad.
01:57Lefties have gotten the best of them, righties not so much.
01:59But here's the issue.
02:00What are you trusting here?
02:01What's happened at the plate?
02:03Or maybe he's being a little bit unlucky.
02:04Because if you look at the card today,
02:06there's 27 pitchers over the past 30 days with a minimum of five innings pitched here.
02:11Dylan Cease, out of those 27 pitchers, Ben, he's number two on the card in XFIP here.
02:1628 in the third innings pitched, an ERA of 4.45, which isn't good.
02:21But look at that XFIP number, 2.42.
02:24Absolutely spectacular.
02:25So it's one of those times where, yes, the Dodgers on an even-money split.
02:29Why don't you just go with the Dodgers?
02:31But I do think the better pitchers on the mound here with the Padres,
02:33and that's probably the way I'll lean in this one today,
02:35just because I don't have a big backlog here on Sauer,
02:38where I know Cease can turn it up with the strikeouts.
02:40Matt Sauer, the 26-year-old, made his MLB debut for the Dodgers in 2025.
02:47He has made seven appearances so far this year, but not since May 23rd.
02:52A 1-0 record, a 3-0-5 ERA.
02:57Again, Matt Sauer doesn't seem to have all that much of a background and pedigree as of this moment.
03:03If the Padres, the RS, trailing the Dodgers by two games in the NLS,
03:08can win the final two to take this midweek set,
03:10will have a tie atop the division at the end of this midweek series in San Diego.
03:16The Dodgers, if they hold as the underdog, even ever so slightly tonight in San Diego,
03:22would be just the 13th game this year for L.A., booked as the underdog, 12 of those 13 on the road.
03:28Another midweek series that got started on a Monday, and thankfully for Philadelphia,
03:34with a victory, snapping a five-game skid.
03:36Also went to extras.
03:38The Phils beat the Cubbies in 11, courtesy of a walk-off RBI winner from Brandon Marsh.
03:45It's the young buck for the fighters today.
03:48Mick Abel gets the start against the Cubs.
03:51It's a minus 108 price.
03:53A direct updated money line pick-em on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
03:56Total DRS, nine and a half.
03:59What's the play today at the bank?
04:02Again, you have a couple starts under your belt for Mick Abel, and they've been really good starts here.
04:08So the expectation is he's coming in.
04:09You know what?
04:10I'm confident now.
04:10Like, I've been around the block here a couple times, faced a couple major league teams here.
04:14I think at Toronto and home against Pittsburgh, and I handled myself well.
04:18Back at home, the double home starts, like a whole new environment where I'm pitching here.
04:21But my focus isn't really on Abel and can he hold down the Cubs, who are a good lineup.
04:25It's the fact that Colin Ray has really not been good over the past month, Ben.
04:28He's 25th out of 27 pitchers on the card.
04:3128 total innings pitched here.
04:324.82 ERA, but pretty much a matching X with a 4.61.
04:37You look at who he's pitched to, he's struggled, Ben.
04:39Last 119 batters he's faced, the total is a 224 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of 384.
04:45And look at the K rate, 15%.
04:47Doesn't strike anybody out.
04:48Lefties have gotten the best of him here.
04:50It's a shame that Bryce Harper's not in the lineup.
04:52But again, Kyle Schroeder should be able to get down tonight.
04:54The Phillies haven't hit right-handed pitching all that well, and particularly from their left-handed batters.
04:59But this is one of those games where I was wrong with yesterday.
05:02I didn't get five runs out of Cleveland.
05:03We didn't.
05:03We got four and had a chance to get five, but didn't get there.
05:06But this is one of those, we look at the Phillies going, there's been struggling at the plate.
05:09They should hit.
05:10It's 80-degree temperatures with a wind blowing up in the midfield.
05:13They should hit Colin Ray.
05:15Plenty more around the base.
05:17Up next.
05:20There is plenty of baseball to break down for you here on this Tuesday on the Early Line on Sports Grid.
05:26It's a full Tuesday slate around the bigs.
05:28And from the brilliant baseball mind of Donnie Wright's side, we do continue.
05:32Under the arch yesterday, DRS, a battle of the birds.
05:36The Blue Jays, who are red hot.
05:38And the Redbirds of St. Louis, who have been one of the surprising teams around the National League this year.
05:44A wild game yesterday.
05:46The Jays had a 3-0 lead into the eighth.
05:49The Cardinals respond with four runs in the eighth, courtesy of a three-run shot from Yvonne Herrera, who put St. Louis up by a run, only to be tied in the top of the ninth.
06:02And then Alejandro Kirk, an RBI double in the top of the tenth in extras, wins it for Toronto.
06:07Speaking of winning it for the Jays, Toronto has won 10 of its last 12 games, entering today's matchup against St. Louis.
06:16So under the arch, another pick-em price.
06:19Minus 108, that updated Moneyline number on both sides on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
06:24Chris Bassett gets the nod for the Jays.
06:26Miles Michaelis on the other side for St. Louis.
06:29Eight and a half is the total.
06:31What do you like today under the arch?
06:33I always, I'm liking the way this Toronto lineup projects itself.
06:37Now, yesterday, a three-and-a-half total, which was about like a minus 140 price point.
06:40They ended up getting that there.
06:41Needed a home run, I believe, in the ninth inning just to get it to extras here to get that fourth run.
06:45But ended up taking that down.
06:46Kirk had a decent game with a home run and a couple of base knocks here.
06:5078-degree temperatures.
06:51Love to see that.
06:52Light wind blowing out to right field.
06:53That's all great.
06:54Miles Michaelis, not a great pitcher.
06:55If we take a look at him even over the last 30 days, Ben, 27 and a third innings pitched here.
06:59296 ERA, which isn't bad, but the 4.35 X fifth number.
07:03Why?
07:04He doesn't strike out batters.
07:05That usually lends to self to get yourself in trouble.
07:08If we look at the lineup today, only two players in that lineup once again presenting themselves for the Blue Jays as high strikeout guys.
07:14Which means you have seven quality batters.
07:16And of those seven, the first six in the lineup, 321, 334, 404, 357, 367, and 386 are the weighted on base percentages here for the Toronto Blue Jays going up against right into pitching over the past month.
07:29So I do give a slight lean to that.
07:30If we're looking at Chris Bassett, his ERA is a little bit high at 3.90 over the past month through 27 and two-thirds innings pitched.
07:37357 X fifth number, so not too bad.
07:39So when we're looking at the lineups, I like the Toronto lineup better, and particularly the pitching a little bit better from Toronto's side.
07:46Some guys that you might want to look at from a Cardinals perspective, though, right-handers have gotten the best of Bassett over the past month.
07:52So maybe you take a look at maybe a Wilson Contreras in that lineup or a Nolan Arenado, even though they don't have very good statistics against right-handed pitching over the past month, maybe a chance for an RBI.
08:01But for me, I'm actually looking at Toronto here.
08:03I think there's a better team, better pitcher, and better lineup to get the victory today.
08:08Jonathan Classe was the guy to hit the solo dinger.
08:11DRS at the top of the ninth for the Blue Jays to extend to extras.
08:16The Blue Jays, again, 10-2 in their last 12.
08:19St. Louis, a surprising team around MLB this year, still 36-30, and yet four games back of the Chicago Cubs for that top spot in the National League Central.
08:31That game, the opener of the midweek set in St. Louis, was wild yesterday late.
08:36So, too, was the one late night out in the desert in downtown Phoenix.
08:41The D-backs held a 4-0 lead into the ninth against the Mariners, who then tied it up with four runs in the ninth.
08:47So then we go to extras, and then Josh Naylor hit a walk-off grand slam for the Stakes to win it 8-4.
08:55Seattle struggling.
08:57The M's have lost 11 of their last 15 games.
09:01They face off tonight once again in Arizona, where Brandon fought.
09:05DRS has been stacking up the wins throughout this season.
09:08Nine-and-a-half now that updated total.
09:10The D-backs, a home favorite tonight around that minus-126 number.
09:15What's the play in this desert duel late night out in Phoenix?
09:19The one thing we do know is Fault's been stacking up that ERA, because over his last 18-2 innings pitch over the past month.
09:25How about an 11-ERA fry guy out here?
09:27Talking about Brandon Fault.
09:28When he came out, I was like, how do you pronounce that fat?
09:30The only thing fat now is that ERA going higher for him.
09:335.53x fifth number.
09:35Here's the issue, though, Ben, right?
09:37Look at the Mariners.
09:37Are we back to the old Mariners that can't get key base hits at times and we're struggling at the plate?
09:42Because that's what I'm seeing here in the numbers.
09:44Going up against Fault, who over his last 91 batters, Ben, how about a .309 ISO against and a .422 weighted-on-base percentage and a strikeout rate of 11%.
09:52To lefties, it's 5%.
09:54He's not doing any damage whatsoever.
09:56Two guys in the lineup I like, though.
09:57J.P. Crawford, leadoff spot, left-handed batter, a .172 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of .400 against ready-to-pitchers.
10:03But always, Cal Raleigh, man, just pops up on that card every single day.
10:07His last 72 at-bats against ready-to-pitching.
10:09How about a .475 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of .455?
10:13Now, he has a K rate of 30% against right-handed pitching, which a lot of power hitters do because you're trying to get the most out of your three swings.
10:20But now we're saying, all right, a guy that strikes out a lot, but a guy that doesn't strike out lefties at all, and Cal Raleigh is a switch hitter, he'll be batting from the left side.
10:27Maybe that's an added advantage for a legitimate chance for a Raleigh home run tonight.
10:31Then we flip it over to the Arizona side.
10:32Their lineup always looks good on a night-to-night basis.
10:35Logan Evans on the mound today.
10:37Take a look at his last 76 batters he's faced.
10:39That's a .233 ISO power number against.
10:41So, for me, I need, I need the Mariners to show up tonight at the plate, and they should be able to do that against Brandon Fott.
10:48Probably an over is in perspective, but just from a home run standpoint, like Cal Raleigh, man, just checks all the boxes tonight.
10:54He really does.
10:55Fott has been getting hammered, DRS, and big dumper, that being Cal Raleigh, still leads the bigs in home runs this year.
11:03Fott through April, had a 5-1 record in a 2-7-8 ERA.
11:07A couple of good early outings against the Dodgers in May.
11:11Got him to 7-3 on May 19th.
11:13That matched the most wins at the time in MLB.
11:17But, Donny, the ERA in May, an 8-1-0.
11:20He allowed five earned in his only start so far in June against the Braves.
11:24Yeah, to your point, he has been struggling mightily as of late.
11:28You know who is not in his debut season for the New York Yankees?
11:32That's Max Freed.
11:33He's on the bump today in Kansas City for the Pinstripes as they take on the KC Royals.
11:38Of course, a postseason rematch of the division series a year ago.
11:43The Yanks a minus 200 favorite inside Kauffman Stadium tonight.
11:47Total 8-1-2.
11:49Minus 200 on the road, even with Freed on the bump.
11:53Is it too steep in favor of those Yanks?
11:56Look, Noah Cameron has been really good on the season.
11:59119 total batters faced on the season.
12:01How about an 0-64 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 194?
12:05Now, he's doing this a little bit with smoke and mirrors.
12:07Why do I say that?
12:07He's only got a 16% K rate, which is really hard to do.
12:10Which means baseball is getting put in play.
12:12Eventually, you're all going to get damaged.
12:13Now, here's the interesting part about it again when we take a look at the ERA as compared to the analytics.
12:19Noah Cameron in the last 30 days, 25 of the third innings pitched here.
12:22He's got a 1.07 ERA, which is spectacular.
12:26But that XFIP is at a 4.27, a market disagreement between what he's given up and what he possibly should have given up.
12:34And now you're taking a look at temperatures at 83 degrees here at Kauffman Stadium and a light wind blowing out.
12:39You've got four mashers in that lineup against left-handed pitching over the past month.
12:44That's Paul Goldschmidt with a .238 ISO power number.
12:46That's Ben Rice with a .462 ISO power number.
12:49Aaron Judge with a .250 ISO.
12:51And Cody Bellinger at a .259.
12:53All of those guys as well with high weighted on base percentages and high walk rates.
12:57We're expecting traffic on the bases.
12:59I don't know if I want to lay a minus 200.
13:01Even though Max Fried is sensational, Cameron's been a good pitcher.
13:04But does it catch up to him tonight against those New York Yankees?
13:07Yeah, we shall see, DRS.
13:10Max Fried has been unreal so far this season.
13:14Let's go back to Boston, where, of course, yesterday, the debut for Roman Anthony at Fenway.
13:19Of course, a day he will remember forever.
13:21But a couple of mistakes, especially out in right field, that did end up costing the Sox.
13:27So tonight, DRS inside Fenway Park once again.
13:30I'm trying to track down the odds for this game.
13:32There they are.
13:33Lucas Giolito gets the start for the Red Sox.
13:35They're in an ever-so-slight home underdog against their divisional foe in the Tampa Bay Rays,
13:41who have won 15 of their last 19.
13:44Total tonight is nine in Beantown.
13:47What's the play?
13:48About the good times roll.
13:49We expect probably more also earned runs in this game.
13:5264-degree temperatures.
13:53You don't love that.
13:54Light wind blowing him from right field.
13:55Shouldn't have any impact.
13:56Didn't impact anything last night.
13:58We had a ton of runs and a ton of runs late in that game.
14:00You look at Lucas Giolito on the mound, Ben, his last 30 days in Major League Baseball.
14:04Five starts, 24 innings pitched, a 5.63 ERA, but a 4.37 XFIP number.
14:10Sometimes you just want to ride the hot hand with that lineup here for the Tampa Bay Rays.
14:15You look at Lowe, Lau, Diaz, Aranda, Caminero, everything high with weighted on base percentages here.
14:21We look at that Boston lineup.
14:22Sometimes it's tough to judge some of the younger players there.
14:25But Pepio's last 30 days.
14:27He doesn't have sensational numbers here.
14:29The ERA is a 2.27, which you'll love, a 3.59 manageable XFIP number.
14:34I'm going to go Tampa today.
14:35Late number?
14:36Give me the hot team.
14:37That would be 16-20 for the Rays.
14:40More baseball next.
14:43The Fork is still very much in the Atlanta Braves as of this moment.
14:48But how deep are we sticking that?
14:51See, it just, some of the phrasing behind Fork Boss sounds a little bit crazy.
14:56Just to say, the Braves did snap a seven-game slide yesterday, of course, in Milwaukee,
15:05behind a masterful performance on the bump from Chris Sale today.
15:09Grant Holmes gets the start for the Braves against the Brew Crew.
15:13And Atlanta remains a road favorite in Milwaukee.
15:16Minus 120, the updated price on the money line for the Braves.
15:21The total stands at 8.5.
15:23They had lost seven in a row, that being Atlanta entering yesterday.
15:27They had dropped 14 of their last 17, that being the Braves entering yesterday.
15:33DRS, can Atlanta go on a little run and win multiple games consecutively here today in Milwaukee?
15:39Usually I'd say, yeah, Quinn Priest is on the mound.
15:41It's one of my favorite fade guys, let's just say, over the past year and a half.
15:44But not really fadeable at this point right now, particularly, Ben, over the past 30 days.
15:48Look at his numbers, 103 batters faced here, a 156 ISO against, which is really good.
15:53How about a 268 weighted on-base percentage?
15:55Here's the issue again, though.
15:57He does struggle with striking guys out, which means when the ball is in play,
16:00bad things happen, particularly to the defense and or the pitcher himself.
16:03But Quinn Priest has last 27 and a third innings pitched.
16:06How about a 263 ERA and a 3.67 XFIP number?
16:10It's very manageable.
16:11The top of the lineup is going to have to do the damage for the Atlanta Braves once again.
16:14Acuna, Riley, Olsen, and Ozuna, because after that, Michael Harris, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies,
16:20Alec Verdugo, and Nick Allen, all really bad hitters against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days.
16:26Also understand this, we're in Milwaukee.
16:27It's like a beach day today.
16:2874 degrees of first pitch, light wind blowing out the left.
16:31That roof is definitely going to be open, which helps some of that ball carry in there,
16:35get a little bit more humidity than just shutting it down at that point.
16:38If we're looking from Milwaukee's side, it's a lineup that I don't love on a day-to-day basis.
16:41It almost feels like, let me check in on Christian Yelich if he matches up,
16:45and if not, I'm just going to keep moving here.
16:47Grant Holmes has been decent over his past 30 days.
16:50117 batters, Ben.
16:51He's faced a 150 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 288.
16:55Trying to find here on the roster.
16:57Let me see where he's coming in at today.
16:59Atlanta.
16:59Grant Holmes actually eighth on the card today.
17:01Not too bad, which is he lined him up here against the pitcher on the other side.
17:04Priester, we might be getting an under type of play in this game,
17:07because Holmes is 318 over the past month at 347 XFIP number, which, again, isn't bad.
17:13And not a great look at lineups.
17:14Maybe five total batters I like combined.
17:16How about an under in this game to play to?
17:20Under 8.5 DRS.
17:21I do like that.
17:22Look, a little bit more juice on the over right now for the Brew crew and the Braves.
17:27But, of course, Atlanta has not been great offensively.
17:30Finally got some runs out of Ronald Acuna Jr., a solo shot,
17:33and a Matt Olsen home run as well in that fifth as the Braves started to pull away
17:38to take advantage of that sensational start out of Chris Sale.
17:43You saw the tease for this segment.
17:45Can Andrew Abbott, the starter today for Cincinnati in the interstate showdown
17:50against the Cleveland Guardians, bounce back?
17:53Abbott's been sensational this year, DRS.
17:56Through May, he was 5-0 with a 1-5-1 ERA,
18:00but last Wednesday in his first start of June against Milwaukee, he got shelled.
18:06Five earned, given up over six innings of work, two home runs.
18:10It was just the second start this year for Abbott.
18:13He allowed more than a single earned run.
18:16Also gave up four in-course field earlier at the end of April.
18:21The Guardians are a slight home favorite today in the land.
18:25And now minus 116 against Andrew Abbott and his Reds, my Reds,
18:31since the above 500 now.
18:33Need them to get to 80 victories this year to go over their preseason.
18:37Win total, eight and a half.
18:38Now that total today in Cleveland.
18:40DRS, Central Seas, what do you like?
18:43Yeah, by the way, you take a look at the 72 degrees here
18:46with wind blowing out to Reds.
18:47You'd like that if you're the hitters at this point.
18:49Abbott is a lefty, same thing as Miley was on the mound yesterday,
18:52and they got three runs before the fifth inning.
18:54So maybe it's one of those where, hey, take a team total first five innings,
18:56one and a half around it, you probably should cash it in.
18:59But the theory is different from what I played yesterday, Ben, until today.
19:02Hey, lefty on the mound sooner or later than the Guardians have to be able to hit him.
19:05Well, that was a tomato can pitcher.
19:07Abbott, even though he can get roughed up at times,
19:09hasn't been a tomato can pitcher this year.
19:11And even over the last 116 batters he's faced,
19:13how about a 121 ISO power number against him and weighted on base percentage of 261?
19:17That's really good.
19:18And you look at the lineup today outside of Jose Ramirez,
19:21who is a switch hitter.
19:23Everybody looks bad, weighted on base percentage-wise against lefties here.
19:26So I don't know if that's going to change today,
19:28where yesterday was like, you know what?
19:29This guy shouldn't be in Major League Baseball.
19:31You should be able to rough him up.
19:32Five innings, pitch, clear on runs, you'll take that.
19:34But you lost that game.
19:35You shouldn't have lost yesterday.
19:36If we take a look at the opposite side, though,
19:38Slade Ciccone on the mound, I'm not a big fan of his at all.
19:41Not a huge strikeout guy.
19:42And look at the weighted on base percentage against him over the past month.
19:45A 382, an ISO power number of 284.
19:48TJ Friedel, Gavin Lux, Ellie De La Cruz, Tyler Stevenson, Will Benson.
19:52Those guys really pop up for me.
19:54So I'm looking at the better pitcher on the mound today
19:56and the better lineup on the mound today.
19:58I've got to have the Reds, man.
19:59Give me the Reds today.
20:00Yesterday in Cincy's win, DRS in Cleveland,
20:04they had five guys in that starting lineup that recorded multiple base knocks,
20:09including the first three in their order.
20:11TJ Friedel, as you mentioned, Gavin Lux, and Ellie De La Cruz.
20:15It was a really nice offensive outing out of Cincinnati.
20:19DRS, both of the best teams in baseball.
20:21The Tigers, who have the best record around the bigs,
20:24best mark in the American League, 43 and 24.
20:27The Mets have the best record in the National League, 42 and 24.
20:31Had Monday off following the weekend.
20:34Both back in action today.
20:36The Tigers, an underdog in Baltimore against the atrocious Orioles.
20:42Cade Povich, is he turning things around?
20:45The former Nebraska hurler now for the O's.
20:48Griffin Cannon gets the start today for the Mets
20:50as they host the Nats as a home favorite.
20:53DRS, should the Tigers be an underdog
20:56in the Charm City?
20:5881 degrees, man.
20:59You like that.
21:00So, you know, in Baltimore,
21:01we're starting to see that heat and humidity come in.
21:03Six-mile-an-hour winds blowing at the right.
21:04But understand this, you.
21:05Like, Cade Povich is supposed to be a paid guy.
21:0720 to 30 innings pitched year, Ben, over the past month.
21:09He's got a 4-3-5 ERA.
21:11It's like, ooh, that isn't good.
21:12But a 318 XFIP number, which is really good.
21:15Herter on the other side, not a lot of statistics,
21:17but he's been solid as well.
21:18Here's the issue.
21:19We're waiting for the Baltimore lineup to absolutely start hitting.
21:22Outside of Jackson Holiday, Adley Rutschman, and Dylan Carlson,
21:25everybody else is really poor against lefties,
21:27so that's hard to trust.
21:28On the opposite side, you've still got Detroit.
21:30They hammer left-handed pitching.
21:33So, if we're doing like a toss-up of pitchers,
21:35which should hold them down,
21:36the battles are way better for Detroit
21:38than they are for Baltimore today, in my opinion.
21:41Yeah, total is nine today at Camden, by the way.
21:44Baltimore had entered the weekend,
21:46winning six straight and nine of its last 11,
21:49maybe turning things around.
21:51They lost the weekend series against the A's.
21:53DRS, we send you off to the Moneyline now, my friend.
21:57Have a lovely time.
21:58We'll chat tomorrow on a Wednesday.
22:00We're on the early line, including a preview of Omaha.
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