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00:00We got a doubleheader today in the Friendly Confines, Joe.
00:02We were supposed to have a doubleheader yesterday, but windy conditions, rainy conditions, forced
00:06the cancellation, and by the way, probably good for the Cubs, because they got whitewashed
00:10in game number one, 7-0.
00:13Game number two could have been the same, but today it's going to be Patrick versus
00:16Boyd in game number one, and game number two, it's going to be Woodruff versus Tyone.
00:20Good luck at that.
00:20By the way, Matthew Boyd has been very good for the Cubs, but the question is sometimes
00:23not really the pitching for the Cubs, it's the hitting, which is going absolutely dormant
00:27over the past month here.
00:28Game number one is a total of 7.5.
00:30Game number two is a total of 7.
00:32Without checking the forecast, Joe, can you tell me which way the wind is blowing today?
00:40Yes, I can tell you that the wind is blowing in, Donnie, because once again, we've got
00:45a under 7 right now in this spot here with the Cubs and the Brewers, and if it ain't
00:51broke, don't fix it.
00:52I don't trust the Cubs lineup at all, so I'm going under.
00:56I'm telling you, it sounds like Joe's going with the under.
00:58You're going with the dog as well right now, Joe.
01:00Look at that dog.
01:01You can dog it up.
01:02By the way, if you just dog it up here, Chicago getting about a plus, or excuse me, a plus
01:06120 game number one, Chicago game number two, roughly that, yeah, plus 100 if you can find
01:12it out there at the Westgate in Vegas.
01:13Come on now.
01:14You go dog, dog, Joe.
01:15You're making money today.
01:16Or do you just say, hey, look, it ain't broke.
01:19You don't need to fix it.
01:20They won 14 games lost, came back with a smoke show, 7-0 touchdown win yesterday.
01:26Are we getting another smoke show from Milwaukee that goes, we're just going to beat down the
01:30Cubs in the submission for there's no reason for them to show up in September?
01:33Just wait to find out exactly what you're going to get in the first one, Donnie, because I
01:39think if the Brewers lose the first one, and I think that's the best shot for the Cubs
01:43is to have Boyd get it done, then I'm looking to come back the other way in the night game
01:48with Woodruff.
01:49So my hope is, yeah, you know what?
01:51Maybe Boyd pitches lights out, get the Brewers on the ropes in game one, and then come back
01:56in big over the top with Woodruff in game two, because I think this has got split written
02:02all over it, but I think the Cubs' best chance is this game coming up this afternoon.
02:07They've got to get a win behind their top pitcher in Boyd.
02:10If they don't, then the wheels might fall off tonight with Woodruff on the mound.
02:16By the way, that last game that they lost in Milwaukee Brewers, like the extra inning
02:20game, 3-2 game, every other game, it feels like they score 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 runs.
02:24It's almost like you're just taking team totals on a day-to-day basis with Milwaukee, regardless
02:27of who the pitchers are, Joe, and you just let it ride.
02:30But a doubleheader today in the Windy City, which is windy, but it is blowing in today
02:34at Wrigley.
02:35Let's get out to Detroit.
02:36Scene of the crime, man.
02:3710-0.
02:38Absolute smash job by the Detroit Tigers over the Houston Astros yesterday.
02:42You've got pedigree pitchers on the mound, though, today.
02:44Brown versus Scooble.
02:46640 start, 961, 962 on the rotation.
02:49A total that opened up at 6.5.
02:51It's actually a little bit higher to 7 today, Joe, but a favorite here for Scooble overnight
02:55in that minus 150 range.
02:56No longer there.
02:57Minus 168s, minus 175s, and minus 180s out here in the sports landscape, the spending
03:03on where you're shopping.
03:04But Scooble is the better pitcher.
03:06Detroit's the better team.
03:07And by the way, back-to-back shutouts for Houston.
03:09Something.
03:10Can they get a run today off Scooble?
03:13Well, look at that.
03:15The price is interesting, too.
03:16You would have thought that maybe it was going to be a little bit higher with Scooble on
03:20the mound.
03:20But you got two guys at the top of the Cy Young race here with Scooble and Hunter Brown.
03:26Scooble has had some issues here.
03:29But does it make a difference?
03:30Because Houston looks like a shell of itself right now.
03:34You never like a team that just got shut out and embarrassed the way they do.
03:38You don't like to go against them with their ace on the mound the next game.
03:42But call me crazy.
03:44Where are the runs coming from?
03:46If you couldn't score a run last night against Flaherty, how many runs are you getting against
03:51Scooble here tonight, Don?
03:52It feels like an under to me.
03:54Yeah, that's funny you bring that up, too, because sometimes you see teams that break
03:58out.
03:58It's like, well, we're really struggling against decent pitchers.
04:01But now you might get the best pitcher in major leagues when you haven't scored.
04:04And also understand this from a team perspective, Joe.
04:07It creeps into your head.
04:08You haven't scored in two ballgames.
04:10Now they go, OK, that's 19 straight innings.
04:12That's 20 straight.
04:1421 straight innings.
04:15Oh, look, we got second and third one out.
04:17Strikeout, strikeout.
04:1824 straight innings.
04:20And away you go, because Tarek Scuble over the past 45 days, he's got a 65 XFIP minus
04:25number, which is incredible.
04:26And his ERA is a 3.12, which is not really bad.
04:29But Tarek Scuble, it's like, oh, my goodness, what's going on?
04:31I'm breaking down at this point right now.
04:33But Hunter Brown has got back into form.
04:34He's got an ERA of four, but still his XFIP minus, Joe, is an 89.
04:38I'm with you.
04:38It's 78 degree temperature.
04:40So it's nice weather in Detroit.
04:41It is a pitcher's ballpark.
04:43But understand this.
04:44These two pitchers on the mound.
04:45Like, what's the worst case scenario for Scuble?
04:48Like, if we're just talking about, oh, that's baseball, where it's like, hey, today, nine
04:51to one victory for the Astros, where they don't score two games in a row and then light
04:55up Scuble in his own ballpark.
04:56I don't see that.
04:57Like, what's actually honest in this game?
04:59Three to two, three to one really feels like that today.
05:03Two one.
05:04I mean, it could literally be the first one to two runs wins here.
05:08You got to worry a little bit about the bullpens.
05:11But Houston, while their bullpen didn't get a whole lot of work last night, no need to.
05:15So both bullpens will be rested.
05:18I think both starting pitchers have advantages here over the lineup.
05:22So I don't think Detroit's in what they hit four home runs last night.
05:26I don't think they're getting that today against Hunter Brown under for me across the board
05:30here, I think.
05:32Yeah, by the way, started a little bit late with that offense yesterday.
05:34But once it got started for Detroit, it kept hammering away on that Houston Astros team.
05:39If we go to Philadelphia, talk about hammering away.
05:41The Phillies were cruising in that game.
05:42Bullpen got a little shaky for the Philadelphia Phillies.
05:44So the heavyweights came in at the end, but the Phillies bats certainly came out to play
05:47yesterday.
05:4820 plus hits.
05:49And I told you, first time since the early 1960s, the Philadelphia Phillies, every starter
05:53had at least two hits in that game.
05:55If we set the table today, Miller's going to be on the mound.
05:58Has a pitch in a while in Major League Baseball coming back into this game versus the Philadelphia
06:01Phillies versus one of the better pitchers in Major League Baseball, Joe.
06:04And that's Mr. Sanchez.
06:06If we look at Christopher Sanchez on the mound, how about a 64 XFIP minus since July 1st?
06:11How about an ERA, Joe, of 1.89 and an XFIP of 2.60?
06:16Looking at Miller's statistics to start the season, not very good.
06:19A couple rehab starts in AAA, not really good to be honest.
06:23He's going to pitch in Philadelphia.
06:24The Phillies are a heavy favorite.
06:26Minus 190s, we'll call it across the board, and a total that's listed at eight.
06:30The bats came to play last night.
06:32Will they do the same tonight?
06:33Well, that's a big question.
06:35We've got to see some consistency offensively from Philadelphia.
06:39It's great that they did it last night, but they've got to do it here again today.
06:43The money is coming in on Sanchez.
06:45It's kind of hard to fade him right now, isn't it, Donny, especially at home?
06:50And I'm tired.
06:51This is a rough stretch for Seattle.
06:53We knew it was going to be a rough stretch.
06:55This whole trip out east is a little bit taxing here.
06:59So what are we going to get from?
07:01What's the bullpen going to be like here tonight?
07:04I think if Philly continues to swing the bat the way they're doing it, it's all Philly to me.
07:10Maybe even early in the first five as well.
07:13Yeah, take a look.
07:13Again, the struggles early in the year for Bryce Miller certainly didn't work out in his favor.
07:17He wasn't terrible, but wasn't good.
07:19We just don't have that last 30 days to sort of work awful.
07:21But sometimes you take a look at a team that's hot at the plate.
07:23The Phillies were red hot at the plate on Sunday, smashing baseballs down in Washington.
07:28That carried over.
07:29And also, Joe, we weren't talking about last night.
07:31Well, Donny, what do you want?
07:32Wind blowing out, 95-degree temperatures.
07:34It was a chilly night in Philadelphia in the low 60s, and the bats both sides got humming here.
07:38There's a chance that both of these teams can do it today.
07:40It's really up to Christopher Sanchez.
07:42If he's the one that this game doesn't go over, but if he's a little bit shaking, it's not that after five or six innings.
07:47You saw yesterday when the Jordan Romanos of those bullpens come in for the Philadelphia Phillies.
07:50They do have a tendency to struggle at times because, let's be honest, both of these teams, if you're just looking at name recognition, Joe, it's really good on both sides for hitting.
08:00Very good.
08:01Both teams are very capable of putting up runs in a hurry.
08:05I mean, what, we had 19 runs, 21 hits for Philadelphia last night here.
08:09Is anything going to change tonight?
08:10Well, if I had to bet on a team not, you know, decreasing their production, it would be Seattle against Sanchez.
08:18But that bullpen, I mean, is Duran available here tonight in a close game?
08:24Yeah, I think he is.
08:25So, I still think the Philadelphia Phillies are a team to back right now, especially at home.
08:32They feel like they're starting to come into their own again.
08:3573-degree temperatures in Philadelphia tonight.
08:38Looks like a seven-mile-an-hour wind blowing out to left field for a cooler night last night.
08:41Guys, JT Romito almost hit one in the upper deck in left field, which never happens at the Philly Stadium here at Citizens Bank Park.
08:47And Bryce Harper just hit two absolute launch pads.
08:50And was it Mitch Garver that sent one into the second deck as well?
08:54I mean, Bo was flying last night.
08:56And we can say that's baseball one to nothing tonight with Christopher Sanchez absolutely dealing.
09:00The expectations are possibly for runs, but good pitcher on the mound on one side, questionable on the other.
09:05We'll see where that one lands.
09:06More Major League Baseball talk coming your way next, which includes a game down where the Yankees are on the road.
09:11But really, are they on the road?
09:13And do they get their spring training locker rooms?
09:15They're used to that ballpark.
09:17We're going to handicap that next.
09:18So make sure you keep it right here on the early line.
09:21On the road again.
09:22The New York Yankees on the road, but really at home?
09:26Can some of those players stay at the condos they probably rent or just have purchased there in Tampa in that area?
09:31We'll find out tonight because the Tampa Bay Rays are playing the New York Yankees.
09:34But it is George Steinbrenner Field, which is hilarious, with the same exact dimensions of Yankee Stadium in New York.
09:42If there was ever a road game where you feel at home, it's going to be the New York Yankees tonight.
09:46Carlos Rodon, the lefty, is going to be on the mound, Joe, going up against Shane Boz.
09:50965-966 on the rotation, 735 tonight.
09:53Heat and humidity into the ballpark.
09:55But are runs really expected tonight, Joe?
09:57Eight and a half at the opening number here, down to eights across the board.
10:01A Yankee favorite at minus 142.
10:03You're seeing as low as minus 126s and minus 120s across the board.
10:07What's the deal with that crash on the Yanks?
10:09And who's buying the Rays?
10:12Yeah, well, not me.
10:13I mean, you can't buy the Rays right now.
10:15They are one of these teams coming off of a very long West Coast road trip, Donnie,
10:22in which they have not been playing their best baseball in any way, shape, or form here.
10:27It feels like they're kind of mailing it in down the stretch.
10:31And now you've got Carlos Rodon on the mound.
10:33Very familiar from St. Louis.
10:35A day off, now to Tampa, which is really the sixth borough here for the New York Yankees.
10:41Who are we kidding?
10:43Shane Boz, who likes to walk a lot of guys.
10:46And the Yankees like to take a lot of pitches.
10:49I like Rodon's chances here.
10:51I like the Yankees' bats.
10:53I like their chances here.
10:54I feel it's a really good price with the number one on the mound for the Yankees,
11:00who are starting to feel it again.
11:02They lose a lot in a row, Donnie.
11:04They win a lot in a row.
11:05That's who the Yankees are.
11:07I have a feeling they're going to handle business easily here tonight in Tampa.
11:12Yeah, wind blowing in at five miles per hour, that's nothing.
11:15Don't worry about that.
11:1585-degree temperatures, that's what you like.
11:17Maybe a chance of a passing shower, which is typical there in Florida,
11:20certainly at that time of day.
11:22If we look at Shane Boz, he's an interesting one, Joe, over the past 45 days.
11:25Because if you're old school and you look at ERA, he should get smoked tonight.
11:29If you're newer school and you say, I don't really pay attention to that,
11:32like XFIP minus and XFIP numbers, he's a lot lower.
11:35Like, it's interesting to me that I have Boz analytically sixth on my card out of 28 pitchers.
11:39Hey, man, that seems pretty good.
11:41But his ERA, Joe, over the past 45 days, it's over a six.
11:44It's over a six, which is interesting to play out.
11:47Why?
11:47He does have a pretty good strikeout rate.
11:49You know, sometimes he does walk a little bit too many,
11:51but the strikeout rate is what you pay attention to.
11:53But over the past 30 days, Joe, 92 batters he's faced.
11:56A .222 ISO, that's elevated.
11:58A weighted on base percentage of those 92, Joe, .414.
12:02Look, if he's in trouble, that ballpark's not going to save you like a lot of places do.
12:06You can't hide down there in Tampa.
12:08That ball's in the air.
12:08It's going to go out, dead center field, left field, right center field.
12:12It doesn't matter.
12:13Interesting game.
12:13But the Yankees, of course, always project well on offense.
12:16We'll see if they can hit the Boz man tonight as it sets up.
12:19Let's get out to Los Angeles.
12:20How about the Reds and the Angels?
12:22Hunter Green back on the mound.
12:23You and the Reds looking to make a push possibly towards the playoffs.
12:27Hendricks on the mound.
12:27One of the guys that I can't stand trying to handicap.
12:30Sloppy pitcher out there.
12:32Sometimes he avoids contact.
12:34Sometimes he gets hit hard.
12:35Just a tough guy to gauge.
12:36Eight and a half total, but a favorite towards Green and the Reds tonight out in Anaheim.
12:41As well as they should.
12:43Let's be realistic here.
12:44I mean, Hunter Green on the mound.
12:47His first start back was pretty impressive.
12:49Looks like he has the velocity there.
12:52He's got command back.
12:54Can't trust Hendricks at all.
12:57Can't really trust the Reds offense here.
13:00But I think with Hunter Brown on the mound, I don't think the Reds offense is going to have to do a whole heck of a lot here.
13:06So I would be willing to go with the advantage that the Reds have with Hunter Green versus Hendricks.
13:12I'd be willing to go to first five Reds.
13:15I hate the Reds bullpen, Donnie.
13:16You and I both noticed they've cost us enough money this season.
13:20But I'd be willing to back Hunter Green versus Hendricks.
13:23I would even lay the half run with the Reds in the first five.
13:27Yeah, look at Hendricks there.
13:29116 XFIP minus since July 1st.
13:31Not very good.
13:31And ERA Joe, 5.45.
13:33Not very good.
13:34A 4.85 XFIP number.
13:35Not very good here.
13:36He is a right-handed pitcher.
13:38Really gets hammered by right-handed batters.
13:40If we're looking at, again, forget about lefty and righty splits here.
13:43Just some batters on the Reds that have done very well against righties over the past month.
13:46TJ Friedel, Gavin Lux, Elie De La Cruz has been okay.
13:49Noel V. Marte has been very good, as well as Tyler Stevenson here.
13:52But I do agree with you there.
13:5381-degree temperature tonight in L.A.
13:55Nice weather conditions should be hitting.
13:57We'll see if the Cincinnati Reds can respond here.
13:59Another game will stick out there on the West Coast.
14:01It's the Arizona Diamondbacks taking on the Cleveland Guardians.
14:04And the Guardians with one last gasp effort to try to track down Detroit.
14:07They better keep winning ballgames.
14:09Tanner Bybee back on the mound tonight here for the Cleveland Guardians.
14:12Going against Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled at times.
14:15Slight favor towards the Diamondbacks at home in an 8.5 to 9 total where you're shopping at.
14:20Bybee and Rodriguez tonight.
14:22I actually think Cleveland might do okay tonight, Joe.
14:25Yeah, they might.
14:26It feels like runs could very well be coming here, right?
14:30You know, Bybee on the road has not been great.
14:33He hasn't really been great at home either.
14:35But we know Rodriguez is an absolute hot mess here.
14:38It feels like maybe this could be the over we've been looking for.
14:44Arizona loves to play overs in that building here.
14:46I think we get another one tonight.
14:48Yeah, you look at Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe.
14:50Last 45 days, a 124 XFIP minus, which is elevated.
14:54An ERA of close to 6.
14:55Elevated an XFIP number of 5.10, which is ridiculously bad.
15:00Now, we'll see what we get out of Tanner Bybee.
15:03123 batters he's faced over the past month.
15:06177 ISO against 345 weighted on base percentage.
15:08And so, it is elevated.
15:09And he does get hit pretty hard by right-handed batters.
15:12If we look at the lineup tonight, the expectations, Perdomo, Marte, Carroll,
15:17Gurriel, all really good ISOs and weighted on base percentages and low K rates there.
15:21If we focus on the other side, Cleveland's like that chameleon on offense.
15:24You throw a left-handed pitcher out, they got a million switch hitters.
15:26They probably only have one to two left-handed batters in the lineup tonight,
15:30which means you're going to get, what, seven or eight possibilities
15:33of having right-handed batters.
15:35Some of those guys that have been excelling against left-handed pitching
15:37over the past month, Angel Martinez, David Frye, Gabriel Oreos, and CJ Cephas,
15:42who I believe hit a home run last night for the Cleveland Guardians.
15:44So, an interesting one.
15:46103-degree temperatures, man.
15:48I wouldn't pay money to get that roof open tonight, let that heat and humidity.
15:52But you're right about this.
15:53I don't love that lineup for the Guardians, but I can't stand Eduardo Rodriguez.
15:57I think the Guardians could hit tonight.
15:58Maybe four to five runs certainly could be in store.
16:01Yeah, and they love to hit.
16:04Now, we get runs in that ballpark here at Chase Field.
16:07I think we're going to get a few here tonight as well.
16:09Both bullpens not exactly been their best here, especially as of late.
16:15So, yeah, I'll take an over.
16:16I think it's a cheap price.
16:18Yeah, a lot of games on the card tonight.
16:20On a Tuesday, as we start prepping and preparing for the final week of preseason NFL football,
16:24and more importantly, week zero in college football that starts at 12 noon on Saturday
16:29over in Dublin for a divisional battle, or should I say a conference battle here.
16:34Should be interesting times as we go.
16:36One more segment to go on your Tuesday edition of the Early Line, some best bets next.
16:41Best bets coming up in just a few moments here as we wind down the clock on the Early Line here on a Tuesday.
16:47But also, there are some other hot topics, Joe, that we didn't get a chance to get into
16:50and sort of say, eh, I wonder where this is going.
16:51Like, Terry McLaurin, we understand, is really upset with the Washington Commanders organization.
16:56He wants his money.
16:57It doesn't look like there's an impasse at all.
16:59Like, Diana Rossini had a tweet that goes, like, nobody's caving in this situation.
17:02Like, this is a true stalemate where we might miss football games.
17:06But also, last night on the other sideline, Trey Hendrickson, same thing,
17:09says he's not budging in his standoff with the Bengals.
17:13You got two maybe perennial pro bowlers that want their money
17:16and are key ingredients to their team's successes, Joe.
17:19So, let's have some fun with this for a minute or two.
17:21What do you think happens?
17:23Hendrickson caves and plays football first for the Bengals or gets a contract?
17:28Or Terry McLaurin of the Washington Commanders, same thing?
17:32Well, it's funny.
17:33They asked Burrow last night after the game about Hendrickson
17:38and what he thought was going to happen.
17:41And he said that, quote,
17:43I think historically these deals with us have gotten done closer to week one.
17:49He said he signed the Thursday before the first game.
17:52He said Jamar picked up, he says, he thinks just before the first game as well.
17:57So, Burrow's thinking that this is how they do business here.
18:01And don't be shocked if the deal gets done 24 hours before kickoff.
18:05So, and Burrow obviously wants him on the field.
18:08And the defense, the way they're getting gashed this preseason,
18:12needs him on the field.
18:14So, I think Hendrickson's deal is going to get done one way or the other.
18:19It'll probably happen just before game one.
18:23Yeah, we'll see what happens there.
18:24But two players that need to be on the field if their team wants to have success,
18:26no doubt about it.
18:27You want to have success tonight?
18:28We got best bets.
18:29Bye, bye, bye.
18:30And Joe, your best bet tonight?
18:38Because we're going to say bye, bye, bye.
18:39More ways than one today, I figure.
18:41So, go ahead.
18:43Yes, we are.
18:45But where is my PC Richards whistle there?
18:48Because I can tell you right now.
18:52There it is.
18:53Give me the New York Yankees here tonight to get done against a very short series
18:59against the Tampa Bay Rays.
19:01Also, a cheap price.
19:02I had this price closer to about $1.50.
19:05So, minus $135, minus $140 is a go for me with Carlos Rodon on the mound,
19:11going up against Shane Boz, who's been, like Donnie had mentioned earlier,
19:16a complete train wreck.
19:17But so is this offense.
19:20They are 27th in Major League Baseball right now with a 77 WRC+.
19:25And they're 29th striking out 27.5% of the time.
19:30This is not a very good hitting Rays team.
19:33They are not in their right split here against the lefty Rodon.
19:38I like the Yankees' bats getting it done.
19:40By the way, Judge hitting .229 in August.
19:44Stanton is now a pinch hitter in most games because he can't keep playing right field.
19:49So, guys like Ben Rice, guys like Trent Grisham are showing up and showing out here.
19:55I think that continues.
19:56And I like the Yankees to get it done against Tampa tonight.
20:00There you go.
20:01For me, I'm going to switch it out.
20:02I'm going to go with these San Diego Padres.
20:03Not to win the game against the San Francisco Giants, but they hit tonight.
20:06And by the way, they got robbed of a home run.
20:08They should not have got robbed from a home run yesterday.
20:10That game ended up 4-3.
20:11That home run meant a big deal in their loss.
20:13But the Padres team took over 4.5 for me, Joe.
20:16Simple here.
20:16Kai Wei-Teng, the pitcher here for the Giants, is not very good.
20:19He's been lit up so far in his early Major League Baseball career.
20:22The San Diego Padres lineup does have very good isos and weighted on base percentages
20:26against right-handed pitching over the past month.
20:2875 degrees tonight in San Diego.
20:31I am taking San Diego tonight to have a team total over 4.5 runs.
20:36How do you feel about that?
20:37So, we're going 2-0 tonight, I'm feeling.
20:39Feeling the heat.
20:39I think we are sweeping it here, Donnie.
20:42No more pushes like we had last night or ridiculous ways to actually lose some bets here.
20:50So, I like the Padres bats to come alive here tonight.
20:52I am with you.
20:53I'm expecting runs, runs, and more runs from them.
20:56All right.
20:57So, we're going to be starting with the other people.
20:59All right, if you have the two of them, I've been left wall for 4.6 tons
21:08where we can achieve themakeup time, which means most of them are ideal.
21:13This could be in any way.
21:13This is all you just veio to be able to to set the button right.
21:16The administrations are perfect.
21:16Now, I am looking for people back right now.
21:18This will continue to try to teach them.
21:19This will do a little bit better when we are surprised if you are really those guys
21:20that are perfect.
21:21So, I'm feeling that will be perfect.
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