- 4 months ago
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Let's go, people.
00:01This is Major League Baseball.
00:02I know you love your NFL.
00:03I know you love your college football.
00:05But I love me some Major League Baseball, particularly the month of September
00:08when everybody's eyes go over to the NFL and college football.
00:11I still have at least one of those peering at Major League Baseball.
00:15We're going to do that again tonight, Joe.
00:16From the city of Brotherly Love, a 1-0 game last night.
00:19Aaron Nola was the superstar.
00:21And the Phillies are now of eight games over the New York Mets in the NL East.
00:25Minaya on the mound.
00:26The lefty hasn't had a very good season, to say the least.
00:28Ranger Suarez, very good season for the Philadelphia Phillies.
00:31As the Phillies show up here overnight, minus 140s, minus 145s.
00:35That's dipped back here to a minus 130 price in a total that's listed at 8.5.
00:40The Phillies are punchless right now at the plate,
00:42losing a couple of key batters in that lineup.
00:44But the one thing that always seems to stick out is
00:46that Phillies pitching staff on a night-to-night basis is usually pretty good.
00:49I look at this game, Joe, and I say, I don't know if we get the nine runs.
00:52I don't know if the Phillies can win this game.
00:54But my goodness, I expect good pitching performances,
00:56at least out of Ranger Suarez.
00:58I don't think we get nine runs tonight.
01:01I did the math for you, Donnie.
01:03So, you know, the magic number for the Phillies to take down the National League East is 11.
01:09It's 11.
01:10Any sort of combination of win, losses, Phillies, Mets, we'll wrap it up there.
01:16But the Mets, listen, if you're worried about the Phillies, I don't know if they can win it.
01:19I'm not sure Sean Minaya is the guy who's going to stop this bleeding here.
01:25I'm really not.
01:26We're talking about a guy that's got a 7.81 ERA across his last six starts,
01:30dating back to the beginning of August.
01:33It has not been good.
01:35Ranger Suarez, listen, he had some issues there over the last month or so,
01:40but still seems to have figured it out.
01:421.09 ERA in his last four starts.
01:46The Phillies love playing at home.
01:48Yes, they're down a couple of bats.
01:50But, man, do I trust the Phillies lineup more than I trust Minaya here shutting down the Phillies.
01:59I think it's going to be all Ranger Suarez tonight.
02:02Yeah, last 45 days.
02:03Minaya's interesting because analytics does love him.
02:05He's got a 6.21 ERA, which is horrendous, but a 3.19 Sierra.
02:09Something has to give tonight.
02:10I just look at this as one of those, again, playoff-type atmospheres, Joe.
02:133-2-type final score.
02:15That's where I'll bank this game on the under.
02:17Let's take a look at Detroit and New York.
02:19That's Mize versus Warren.
02:20Again, New York, not the Mets.
02:21This is the New York Yankees.
02:23A favorite at home for the Yankees, which opened up overnight around a minus 150 price.
02:27That's rising.
02:27You'll see the graphic coming up here at minus 156.
02:30Anywhere between that and 160 in the sports markets here.
02:34Eight and a half as a total in this game.
02:36Mize versus Warren here.
02:37Yankees trying to still chase down those Toronto Blue Jays on the way to the playoffs.
02:41And Detroit, just looking at secure seating at this point.
02:44Yeah, I mean, temperatures in the 60s, I believe, tonight in the Bronx.
02:50Yeah, I know.
02:52And by the way, I mean, it's wondering because the Yankees are in a battle, right?
02:56Trying to catch down the Blue Jays here.
02:58And I think it's, what, a two-game lead.
03:00But the Tigers are nine games up in their division.
03:03So, they're looking at the number one overall seed here.
03:07Urgency in the final two and a half, three weeks of the season.
03:10Not a whole heck of a lot here for Detroit.
03:13Mize seems to have figured it out last time out.
03:17But, I mean, they're going to need Warren to show up here.
03:20With him, it's either a fantastic quality start or he's out by the, you know, fourth inning, Donnie.
03:25And things have fallen off the track.
03:27So, I do think an over might be in play, though, in this game.
03:32I like both offenses to get some runs.
03:34Yeah, mid-60s here in the Bronx and a wind blowing in.
03:38It's not the greatest temperatures.
03:39Oh, just a couple weeks ago.
03:41It's like 88 degrees, wind blowing out.
03:43We need to get back because it certainly helps the baseballs travel into the seats,
03:46which means more runs and more opportunities for those prop bets here.
03:49Houston and Toronto, 7-0-7 start in the sixth tonight.
03:53Garcia and Bieber, that's the Astros and the Blue Jays, a price point here opening up around a minus 150.
03:59And now we see that into the 160s at some outlets here.
04:03And a total that's listed at 8.5.
04:05Almost a similar line move to what we saw between Houston, or excuse me, what we saw between Detroit and the Yankees.
04:10Now we're seeing with Houston and Toronto.
04:13Biebs is on the mound here.
04:15Did that guy let you down last time?
04:16What happened to the Biebs last start?
04:18Yeah, well, last couple of starts, right, Donnie?
04:21He's kind of gotten beat up here a little bit and given up some runs.
04:27I mean, Garcia also wasn't great, also had a problem there.
04:32But Toronto has always been very, very good at home.
04:36So, and we said this, they're a different team on the road than they are at home.
04:41I think, you know, basically one bad inning is what did Bieber in his last time out.
04:47I like Toronto at home in this spot here.
04:50I think they can get it done.
04:52And I'd be willing to do Blue Jays get to Garcia before the Astros get to Bieber.
04:57So a first five for me with the Blue Jays.
05:00Milwaukee and Texas.
05:02Patrick versus Leiter on the mountain.
05:03An 8.05 start from Texas here.
05:06A minus 115 or so at the opening number.
05:09We're still seeing that across the board.
05:10So call it roughly a pick-em, depending on where you're shopping at.
05:13And a total that's listed at 8.
05:15Milwaukee, Texas.
05:16Now, Milwaukee's not struggling here.
05:17A five-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies for that number one overall seed.
05:20They're just looking to pick up wins where they can get them tonight.
05:23Cheap price, though.
05:24You trusting Milwaukee here at that price?
05:26Or Texas with one last stand for them on the Major League Baseball season?
05:30Well, I mean, they have been red hot, right?
05:33So they've won now the opener here.
05:36They're getting it done without a couple of their best players, right?
05:40They're anchor of that rotation there of Aldi, gone.
05:43Seager, gone.
05:44And, yeah, the young guys really stepping it up.
05:47And they're not that far off, right?
05:50I mean, they gained a half a game in the American League West standings there.
05:54And now just three and a half games behind the Astros?
05:58Yeah, I think it continues here tonight.
06:00I mean, Leiter's been very good at home.
06:02They've gotten a great season out of this rookie.
06:05Patrick, it feels like we're going to get bullpen game for Milwaukee.
06:09And that bullpen's a little worrisome because they've gotten a ton of work over the last
06:13month and a half here.
06:14So I think Texas can win this game again at home.
06:19Cincinnati and San Diego, they're going to do it again tonight.
06:21Last night, an extra innings victory for the San Diego Padres.
06:24Zach Littell is going to go for Cincinnati.
06:25How about Michael King working his way back into that rotation for the San Diego Padres?
06:29That could be key for the playoffs.
06:30And people are buying in.
06:31This price point here on that placard, you'll see at a minus 184 price.
06:34It's now up to minus 196 as a favor for the Padres tonight.
06:38Seven and a half's at the opening number.
06:40Eight's now creeping into the sports betting markets here as we speak.
06:44You take a look at Cincinnati, now jumped here in the wildcard race by the San Francisco Giants.
06:49Time running out for the Reds.
06:50They need victories.
06:51But the same thing can be said about the Padres trying to chase down the Los Angeles Dodgers.
06:56Right.
06:57And what are we going to get from King?
06:58And this is the problem here, Donnie, right?
07:00I mean, last time he did this, he came out.
07:03It was nice.
07:04Everyone was happy to get him back.
07:05And then what happens, Donnie?
07:07You know, a couple innings later or the next start, he's scratched.
07:10He's got to go back on the IL here.
07:12So I appreciate him trying to make the comeback here.
07:15But it's impossible to lay that kind of number with a pitcher where he's already, we've been
07:20through this when he came back the last time and it didn't work.
07:23So I would lean towards the Reds here at this price because just because that's where all
07:28the value is right here.
07:29Absolutely.
07:30And is there any value left in the Los Angeles Dodgers as high yesterday as a minus 350 to
07:34minus 360 favorite?
07:36Get used to it, people.
07:37The Dodgers once again tonight with Emmitt Sheehan on the mound.
07:40A minus 310 to minus 340 price, depending where you're shopping at.
07:44And the total that's listed at nine.
07:45Why is that?
07:46Because Herman Marquez.
07:47If Joe Ranieri and Donnie Wrights had grabbed a bat, we could go two for four, at least against
07:52Herman Marquez.
07:54Yes.
07:55I mean, it's come on at this point.
07:57Could the Dodgers finally, should we go alternate market and lay two here, Donnie?
08:02What do you think?
08:04Absolutely not.
08:06I'm taking the run and a half with Colorado.
08:08I do not trust the Dodgers laying that price against a feisty Colorado team.
08:14Yeah, we'll take a look at some of the pitchers here over the past 45 days that you look at
08:17the roster and say, all right, who do you want to fade?
08:20Herman Marquez is dead last on my card today, Joe.
08:2330 pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched over the past 45 days.
08:27He comes in here with a K percentage of 2.92 per nine innings.
08:32It's all, I don't know if I've ever seen it, like maybe for one or two starts.
08:36This is 45 days that we're looking at.
08:37An ERA, Joe, of 10.95, a Sierra number, which is disaster mode at about 4.50.
08:45He's at a 7.23.
08:47His XFIP number, again, disaster mode around 5, 7.04.
08:52Herman Marquez, can we get more than three runs out of the Dodgers tonight, Joe?
08:55What do you think?
08:57What, maybe team total?
08:58Is that what you're thinking?
08:59Probably not.
08:59They'll probably get two, Donnie, because that's exactly what the Dodgers do is $3 favorites.
09:04Yeah, and as Joe points out, they'll get those two, they'll get them in the bottom of the first inning,
09:09and then we'll scoreless in the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth innings.
09:13You know the way they get down.
09:15You know who's coming up with us next.
09:16It's Adam Kaufman.
09:17Let's have some fun, talk more Major League Baseball.
09:20Rockin' and rollin' on the early line.
09:21It's only a Tuesday, people.
09:22We're getting you excited for the rest of the Major League Baseball card.
09:25What to look forward to in the NFL in week number two, and also some college football action.
09:29It's how we get down.
09:30It's the morning.
09:30We set the table right here for the Sports Grid Network and the rest of your day.
09:34Donnie Wright's Joe Ranieri.
09:35Now we're bringing in Adam Kaufman to brighten your day just a little bit more.
09:39Look at him.
09:39He's like a bright sunshine ray out there for the network.
09:42Look at Adam go.
09:43Love it.
09:44Just the lighting.
09:45It's just the lighting, guys.
09:46Believe me, I'm just as tired as everybody else.
09:50Hey, absolutely.
09:51And by the way, if you are tired of blowing leads like it's the bullpen in Major League Baseball,
09:55welcome to the NFL week number one.
09:56And week number two, your mind will play tricks on you, no doubt about it.
10:00Let's focus a little bit on Major League Baseball, Adam.
10:02I love baseball.
10:03You love baseball.
10:04Just because it's September, we don't have to say, ah, baseball moves out into the playoffs.
10:08I love September baseball, and I love some of the passion that it brings, which includes
10:12the city of brotherly love last night.
10:14Struggling on the mound was Aaron Nolan for the last couple starts coming off the IL.
10:18Oh, no.
10:18They need him to fill in here for Zach Wheeler down the stretch.
10:21He was sensational last night.
10:23That game was a one to nothing final.
10:25What are we looking at tonight?
10:26Mania's on the mound going up against Ranger Suarez.
10:29Philly's are a favorite here.
10:30What you got?
10:32More Philly's is what I expect anyway, and I know it's kind of easy to look at it that
10:37way and say, okay, well, which one is the better team?
10:39Which one's running away with the division?
10:41Obviously, that's Philadelphia.
10:42Not to discount what's remaining in these weeks of the regular season for the Mets.
10:46New York is obviously trying desperately to hang on to a wild card spot there in the National
10:51League and prove this season is not a flop after all the offseason investments.
10:54Thing is, you know, I drill down, as you guys know, we've talked about it before a lot on
10:58the pitching matchups.
10:59I think that's pretty important when it comes to these late season games, especially, you
11:04know, less so some of the randomness that you get in the middle of the season.
11:07You expect guys to lock in better teams to be the better teams, better pitchers to be the
11:11better pitchers, and Ranger Suarez, guys, generally speaking, has been dealing.
11:16You know, you have a Philadelphia team that's won 7 out of 10, the Mets team, obviously, that
11:20is struggling with three straight losses, so you just consider that, but then you put
11:24Suarez against them, and he's only allowed one total run over his last three starts, three
11:30in his last four outings.
11:32Guy is just priming himself.
11:34He's readying himself for the playoffs the way that he is pitching right now.
11:37He's throwing like he's a number one, and Minaya on the other side.
11:41It's not been a great season for him to begin with, and it's really been rocky of late.
11:46His last 28 innings, roughly, 24 runs allowed.
11:51I mean, we're talking about a guy with an ERA flirting around nine during that stretch,
11:56so is he capable of riding the ship here in this one against Philadelphia?
12:00I mean, never say never.
12:01He was marginally better against the Phillies a couple of weeks ago, but I just don't see
12:06it.
12:06I think it's a particularly challenging game in Philly.
12:09Maybe I'd look at him a little, you know, give him a little more consideration if this
12:13game were happening at Citi Field, but it's not.
12:16Yeah, well, there is another game happening involving a New York team.
12:21The Yankees taking on Detroit.
12:23Yankees have battled back, have an opportunity to get it to catch Toronto.
12:29Detroit, you know, they're kind of coasting at this point.
12:32Not a lot to play for with a nine-game lead and the best record in Major League Baseball.
12:37What are we getting this one in the Bronx tonight?
12:39I don't think you want bad habits.
12:41You know, you're right.
12:42They're coasting, but they also look like, and this is another way of saying it, they
12:45look like they're mailing it in a little bit, Joe.
12:47I mean, they're, you don't want to get into the playoffs.
12:50We've seen this.
12:51We've seen September meltdowns out of teams where, you know, you're so great for months
12:55on end and then either you fall apart late and you fall short or you're one of these
12:59teams like the Tigers that should have a big enough lead that you still get there, but
13:03all of a sudden you haven't played meaningful baseball in a month and a half and a series
13:08begins against a motivated team that's played important games for two months and you're
13:12not ready.
13:13And so I think they need to try and find a way, obviously, to avoid that, kind of reframe
13:18themselves a little bit.
13:20Now, I like the Tigers today.
13:22What I will say is I like the Tigers first five.
13:24I'm not certain they're going to go out and win this game.
13:26And I will also tell people, if you don't know already, this is a plus money spot, Detroit
13:30plus 120 in the first five, right around plus 140 for the full game.
13:35If you were to be so bold, Casey Mize coming off the 6-2 win against the Mets, he's, you
13:40know, allowed one run in that one is kind of trying to round himself back into where
13:45he was in late July into mid August, you know, face New York months ago was all the
13:51way back in April.
13:52But it went well against this Yankees team, only allowed one run over six innings.
13:57And on the other side, Warren, the reason in part Yankees, that's one, but also Warren
14:02has pitched really well.
14:04That's that's why they are understandably and deservedly favorites in this one, really
14:08one bad outing that was against the Red Sox spanning his last several starts going back
14:13to mid July.
14:14But I think if you're looking for a Tigers team to kind of bounce back with the guy
14:19who should be the better pitcher on the mound for at least the start of the game,
14:22take the bullpens out of it again with the first five, it's an attractive plus money
14:26opportunity.
14:27I like this next game here that we're going to talk about.
14:29It's the Cubs and the Atlanta Braves.
14:31And you would say, OK, Horton versus Strider.
14:32Oh, big pitching mismatch here.
14:34Man, Atlanta's got to be the right side here.
14:36Hold your horses because over the past 45 days, you look at Kate Horton.
14:40I don't love ERA as a statistic, but 0.77.
14:43Yeah, that sticks out.
14:44You take a look at Strider.
14:45Just look at his ERA.
14:467.75 in that same time frame.
14:49And he's terrible analytically here.
14:51Horton versus Strider.
14:52It's roughly a pick them.
14:54Uh-oh, Strider should dominate.
14:55I don't know about that.
14:57Well, you just said the key words to me.
14:59It's roughly a pick them.
15:00And so at that point in time, you know, you're looking at which pitcher is better, has been
15:04better, which team should have the more favorable matchup.
15:07Yes, it's in Atlanta.
15:08So that's not ideal.
15:09But the fact of the matter is, we know the Cubs team can hit.
15:12And you couple that with, obviously, what Horton has done, as you said, the sub-1 ERA going
15:17back a while at this point.
15:1911 starts.
15:2111 starts.
15:21I'm looking at it.
15:22He is the ERA that is in that vicinity of one.
15:26That includes five innings of no-hit ball against the Braves.
15:28Oh, by the way, only last week.
15:30So this is a team that he is very familiar with.
15:33There's not going to have to be too much studying other than looking back at some of the video
15:37and seeing all the different things that he had going well and all the different ways
15:40that he was fooling these hitters.
15:41You know, I think if you were looking at this and saying, ah, boy, I mean, he's like
15:47Cade Horton in this game is a minus-150 favorite.
15:50OK, you know, maybe you reassess and you don't want to lay the juice.
15:54You're looking to parlay it with something.
15:55But when you can get them at minus-106 in the first five, again, lean in on the starting
16:01pitcher and not worry about the bullpen screwing it up.
16:04That's where I'd want to go.
16:06Absolutely.
16:06Quick one here on San Francisco and Arizona.
16:08The bats have come alive for the Giants and they're closing in on maybe a wildcard spot.
16:12What are you digging here quickly between the Giants and the Diamondbacks?
16:16Yeah, this one's just kind of a gut feel for me.
16:18And I like the Giants' money line.
16:20You could do first five a little more juice or take the full game, which I'll do at minus-138.
16:25Fact of the matter is, Zach Gallin has been really good for the Diamondbacks.
16:28So it's, again, this is just sort of matching it up with, all right, San Francisco's won
16:34seven out of ten.
16:35Arizona's kind of mailing it in.
16:37Look for San Francisco to stay hot.
16:44We're going to send you out tonight, Joe, with security around you.
16:47So nobody can rob you again tonight.
16:49Where are we going?
16:49Well, you know, hopefully you listened and you had that open-ended teaser backing the
16:55Bears at plus seven and a half because you can still have an opportunity this week.
17:00But tonight I'm going back to Major League Baseball and I'm going to go to Atlanta and
17:06I'm going to look at this first five battle between Spencer Strider for Atlanta and Horton
17:12for Chicago.
17:13Now listen, yes, you went over the numbers.
17:15Horton has been absolutely crazy, right?
17:191.23 ERA as the last 11 starts, 54 strikeouts, 58 two-thirds innings.
17:25The kid has been dealing.
17:27Now, Spencer Strider is interesting to me because, yes, he's had a terrible year coming back off
17:33of injury.
17:34But he was supposed to start on Sunday and Atlanta once again moved him back a couple of
17:40days so he could have some rest.
17:43And my question is, Donnie, why?
17:45Like the season's over for Atlanta here.
17:48Why are we rolling him back out unless you're giving him an opportunity to work on some things
17:54and figure some things out?
17:56The bottom line is the Cubs are not destroying teams offensively.
18:01No Kyle Tucker still in here.
18:02Armstrong still questionable here.
18:05And Atlanta's not hitting the ball either.
18:07I mean, Acuna's in a total funk.
18:09They have not been able.
18:11I mean, just look at what happened there over the weekend when Seattle absolutely destroyed
18:15them.
18:15They only scored four last night thanks to two home runs.
18:19I think the first five under four and a half is the way to look at this one, Donnie.
18:23I think Strider is pitching and they are treating him like they got something to show.
18:30They got something to prove.
18:30So I'm going to go the under in the first five here.
18:34All right, let's go under there for me.
18:35I'm going to keep it a Major League Baseball.
18:37And the theme of the show is pick a Major League Baseball game and stay under the total.
18:40And that's what I'm going to do in Philadelphia when the Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies.
18:44A one to nothing performance last night.
18:45Now, there's no real correlation.
18:47It's OK.
18:47That means you're going to be lower scoring tonight.
18:49But two lefties on the mound in a playoff type of atmosphere here.
18:52The Phillies down a couple of the bats.
18:53Ranger Suarez has really bounced back well.
18:55And you want to say like, well, Donnie, Sean Minaya, you can't really trust him all that much.
18:58A 6.21 ERA over the past 45 days.
19:01His analytical numbers, including Sierra, are 3.19.
19:03It's not a great Phillies offense right now.
19:05Ranger Suarez should pitch well.
19:07Two decent bullpens.
19:08I don't see this game getting nine runs.
19:10We're going under the total, Joe, in Philadelphia at eight and a half.
19:13We had another Major League Baseball victory.
19:15How's that sound?
19:17Love it.
19:18Love it.
19:18I like the under there, too.
19:20Playoff atmosphere and two lefties.
19:22And that's the worst split for both the Mets and Philadelphia.
19:25They don't hit lefties as good as they hit righties.
Be the first to comment