00:00We are going to dissect the damaging coastal storm for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic this
00:06weekend. Could be a named storm as well. We'll get into it. First of all, I want to show you
00:11the area that we're looking at the possibility of development here. This is what we're concerned
00:17about. We've had a high risk here over the last couple of days. There's no doubt there's going
00:21to be a storm that forms off the Florida coast and it comes northward. Will it gain tropical
00:26characteristics? That's the question. Let me show you why this is going to be a little tricky and why
00:33this isn't going to be purely a tropical system. I want to show you what's happening here. The energy
00:39that forms this storm isn't going to come from the tropics. It's coming from the United States.
00:44A little complex setup. Let's take you to the upper air pattern here as we move forward here. Here's
00:49what's going to happen. Let's go through the day. See this little piece of energy right in here. This
00:54is going to come across the southeast as we are toward tomorrow. There it goes. And then I'm going
00:59to stop this on Friday. All right, here's the setup. This is what's going to be the storm here.
01:05And then this is going to be steering this storm, right? And it's going to steer it up the coast.
01:11Let me go to Saturday morning. Here's where we have this getting now off the coast. Here's the energy.
01:17You see the yellow, orange, and the red. That's the energy. This upper low, the reds here across the lakes,
01:22that's what's going to capture this and pull it northward. Watch it all play together as we get
01:28into Sunday and Monday. You see that? Watch how this low dives south, pulls this energy northward,
01:34and that's what's going to bring the rain and the wind right up the mid-Atlantic and in toward the
01:39southeast as well. You see that? Now, notice that the energy is coming not from the tropics,
01:46but from the United States. So this initially has the feel of a winter storm or even a nor'easter.
01:53Look at the energy. But once this energy gets offshore, if it could stay in this area for about
02:01two to three days, you can slowly turn this system from what would be more of a winter storm to start
02:09gaining some tropical characteristics. Watch the energy. So it gets offshore here Saturday evening.
02:16Sunday, it's right in here. So now you're 24 hours right into this zone. And then as we head into
02:23Monday, it kind of gets out of this area and off the mid-Atlantic. So why am I focusing on this area
02:31saying that this system would have to be over this area for, let's say, 48 to 72 hours to gain
02:39tropical characteristics? It's because the warm waters. You see? The warm, the waters in this area
02:45are around that 80 degree threshold right in here. So if you can get this storm to sit into this area
02:52for about two to three days, right? You can take a cold core system or a winter storm and start
02:58gathering some tropical characteristics because of the warm water. You're going to start getting
03:03showers and thunderstorms to go off. That heats the atmosphere because of the release of latent heat.
03:09And that's how you can slowly, surely, surely make this more of a tropical system. It doesn't appear
03:16to me like you have enough time to do that. We'll see. The National Hurricane Center will make the call
03:23whether they give this a subtropical storm or just keep it a regular cold core storm and then it won't
03:30have a name. What is a subtropical storm? You see this a lot early and late in the year when you get
03:35the interaction between the jet stream and the tropics. It is a storm that has both winter storm
03:41characteristics and tropical storm characteristics here. We call it a hybrid. It's a subtropical storm.
03:47It's a close call. We'll see. But regardless, boy, you're going to have some impacts with this
03:52as we move forward here because what's going to end up happening here, and let me, so you can see
03:57this here right in here. There it is. That's the definition. Now, moving forward, I want to talk
04:05about the impacts for this system here because it will have the look and feel of a tropical system
04:13with the rain and the wind that we're going to see here. I want to show you the impacts of this system
04:19moving forward here. All right, what I have here is these are the wind gusts associated with this system
04:26here. All right, let me put you in the double box here. So, as we go forward, here comes our storm.
04:31I'm going to mark it. See, it's right here. Here it is. It's right here. The time frame we're looking at
04:36here is Saturday morning. So, here's the low pressure system. Watch how the winds start to increase
04:41moving forward here along the North Carolina coast. So, this is Saturday night. Look at the
04:47winds here. Here's your area of low pressure. Look at the winds along the Carolina coast. You're
04:52starting to bring them in out of the east northeast. These wind gusts are shown right in here. You're
04:57up over 40 miles per hour. That's Saturday evening. Now, notice what happens on Sunday. Let's go to
05:03Sunday afternoon and evening here. The storm starts moving in here off the Carolina coast. You still have
05:09some gusty winds here probably in the 30 to 40 range, but note the mid-Atlantic coast here. The Delmarva
05:16Peninsula, Jersey show. Sure, this is showing wind gusts in here of up over 40 to 50 miles per hour gusts,
05:24right? And then moving forward in the Monday, you still have this storm lingering off the Delmarva
05:30Peninsula right here. Look at these. These are wind gusts offshore near 70 miles per hour. Now,
05:38that's offshore, not on the coast. But you could see the concern we have in these areas as we move
05:46into the Friday and the upcoming weekend. With this storm taking this track, you're going to have a
05:51damaging system here. Unfortunately, you're going to have damaging wind gusts as well with that. In
05:56fact, take a look at the seas too moving forward here. Wow, look at these seas starting to build.
06:02You're looking at seas up over 20 feet, battering the coast. Subtropical or New Easter, doesn't matter.
06:11However, it's a damaging storm this weekend.
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