00:00We're talking about double trouble in the Atlantic and I think by Monday there's a pretty good chance that we're looking at two hurricanes and we could be looking at a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane I think in the Carolinas as we head into Monday.
00:15Welcome to the feed. We're going to be looking at a lot of different information. It's where I give you an inside look at the models and the tools that I look at to make a forecast.
00:26First I want to take you out and let's talk about Umberto right now which is to the north and east right now of the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands. Here it is.
00:39Now it's not doing so healthy right now because the center of circulation if you look at it 21 to 56 so it's right around in here. All of the clouds on the eastern side. The reason for that take a look you've got wind shear here right.
00:52So that's why over the next at least 24 hours I wouldn't expect a lot of intensity. That's why we think it is going to be a tropical storm as we go through today.
01:05But man look out as we move into the weekend because the wind shear lowers in this area. This will become a hurricane and I'll tell you what we're going to go three for three with these hurricanes.
01:16We had Aaron. We had Gabrielle. Both hurricanes and they were major hurricanes. Two for two on that. I think this is going to be a major hurricane as well.
01:25That's category three or greater and you're looking at maximum staying winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
01:31That's a troubling sign as we continue to go through this hurricane season that every storm that's formed into a hurricane has rapidly intensified or intensified into a major hurricane.
01:41So that is a concern here. Now let's talk about this. This is our next tropical wave. Now this is a little tricky for a number of reasons but remember this wave and we talked about this on the feed last week.
01:54Remember everybody forgot about this this tropical wave and what did we tell you? Let's track it because if it can come over all of the hurdles and obstacles in the Atlantic could find its way into the Caribbean.
02:07There would be room for this to develop. Now last week I thought that it would be more likely to come in here than in here. So I was about 100 miles off about a week away. That's not bad as far as the forecast is concerned.
02:23But this is the tropical wave. It has one last hurdle. Two last hurdles. Hispaniola and Windshear. Hispaniola and that's this rugged island right here.
02:33This is the graveyard of the Caribbean. Because it has rugged mountains a lot of times tropical systems get shredded. It's like a paper shredder and by the time it goes through the paper shredder there's nothing left.
02:47However what this tropical wave has in its favor is that it's weak. So the impacts Hispaniola are going to have on it wouldn't be as great as if it was a stronger system.
02:56And I think it is going to be pulling away from Hispaniola later today. Now I want to show you this. We're going to continue to concentrate on the modeling here.
03:05I'm going to show you all the modeling coming up here but I want to concentrate in the short term of why we think this system is going to develop.
03:12I want to use the European to me. The European model has been the most consistent. Now let's take a look at it. You're looking at the upper air energy.
03:19This, where you see the red, that's Umberto. This little yellow here doesn't look like much. That's the tropical wave. That's this evening.
03:27Now let's go 24 hours in advance right now. Let's go to Friday evening. All of a sudden you see it in here near the Turks and Caicos.
03:34Now the only thing stopping this is wind shear. Water temperatures in the middle 80s. I want to show you the wind shear right now.
03:40What do we use? The tool I love to use is the winds at around 40,000 feet. It's called the 200 millibar wind flow.
03:47Let me show you what's going on. So here it is. Remember this location right here north of the southeast tip of Cuba.
03:54What are we looking at a lot? What's the wind flow here? Okay. So this is located right in here.
04:00And what do you see? Light wind shear. Low winds. In fact, you can see an outline of an upper high.
04:07You see that in here. So that tells me there's low wind shear. So this is going to get going as we head toward tomorrow.
04:13Let's track this over the weekend. Where's it going? Saturday. There it is. You see a darker red. Let's play it out. Watch what happens.
04:20Watch this area move northeast and you can start to see by Saturday evening you start seeing some dark reds right in here.
04:28This is just north of the Turks and Caicos over the southern Bahamas. What does the wind shear look like?
04:33Let's take a look at it. Light. It's right in here. Very light wind shear.
04:39And then as we head into Sunday, take a look at it. Right there. It's right in here. What does it look like wind shear?
04:46There is some wind shear. Some. Some. But it's going with the storm coming in out of the south.
04:51I think there's light enough wind shear that this system is going to go as we head into the weekend.
04:57By Sunday, what are we looking at? We're looking at that system to be off the Florida coast.
05:03Now, the question is, is where does it go?
05:07I'm going to show you all modeling here and show you what we're looking at here.
05:11We're going to first look at the European model here. We'll pick it up on Sunday.
05:16Let me go to my two box here.
05:18All right. This is the European.
05:21Let me go back.
05:22Here is the European.
05:24We'll do that first here as we take a look at this on.
05:30Let's start here on Sunday here.
05:33So here's the European.
05:34There it is. You see it over the Bahamas.
05:36Let me go full on the whole screen.
05:38Watch where it goes.
05:39European takes it in the South Carolina.
05:41All right.
05:42Here is the GFS.
05:43Where does that take it?
05:44In the South Carolina.
05:46Where does the UK met the Canadian?
05:48Right into the Carolina.
05:50Where does the Europe, the UK met?
05:51That's the European model.
05:52It kills it.
05:55So again, we're going to have some problems figuring out where this is going to go.
06:02We'll stay in touch with you.
06:03But again, I'd worry that we're looking at the Carolinas.
06:08It could weaken or go out to sea, but watch Carolinas early next week.
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