Rare tranquility in the Atlantic

AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish takes a look at the nearly record-breaking quiet situation in the tropics this September.

Transcript

00:00unprecedented tranquility in the Atlantic Basin. We haven't seen this kind of tranquility

00:06in years. What do I mean? Take a look at this. We haven't had a storm since August 29th. It is now

00:14September 15th, during the heart of the hurricane season. Last time we saw that was 1992, where

00:20Andrew formed, and then we didn't have Bonnie until September 17th, and there's a chance

00:26we can eclipse that. Just to show you how rare that is, take a look at this. I mean, we're in the

00:32heart of the season right now. Right in here, during that time from August 29th through September 15th,

00:40this is where you would climatologically see most of the storms. It is unprecedented to have it this

00:48quiet. Now, we're going to watch, though, a tropical wave. It is across the Atlantic right now. I want

00:54to show it to you right here. Here it is. It is halfway between. Here's Africa. Here's the

01:01lesser utilities. So it's right in between right now. It's a robust area of showers and thunderstorms.

01:07You see lots of reds, lots of yellows right now. It's consistent, which means it's holding its own.

01:12Now, water temperatures are warm enough. We look at two things, dry air and wind shear. Let's take a look

01:19at the dry air. Do you see any dry air coming into the system? I do not right now. In fact, when you

01:24watch this, you see the dry air being pushed away. Remember what happened with the last system a couple

01:29of weeks ago? Dry air came in, choked it off, and as a result, it did not develop. However, there are

01:36some wind shear problems here. You see this upper low end here? I'll draw it. This is producing wind

01:41shear on the northern side. That's what's stopping this from developing right now. Let's take a look at

01:47what's going to happen here. I want to show you the computer models here. So everything that you're

01:51looking in, this is the reason I like the feed, because I'm showing you everything that I'm looking

01:57at right now. You can see, here's the system located right here. No, I'm sorry, here, down in here. What

02:04does the wind shear look like right now? So here it is. Let's take a look at the wind shear. Right in here,

02:10here's the winds at about 40,000 feet. So the system's here. The wind shear on the northern edge

02:16is right in here. So that's what's stopping it. Let's go to Wednesday evening. So that's tomorrow

02:21morning. Let's go to Wednesday evening. There's the system. Where you see the red and the yellow,

02:26that's where the system is located here. So there it is. What does the wind shear look like?

02:31Winds at around 40,000 feet. There it is. And you see what's going on here? You see an outline of an

02:37upper high pressure system. Low wind shear. So that tells me Wednesday, this is going to start to

02:43develop. Let's go to Friday. What does it look like here? This is the European model, by the way.

02:48What is really known in the meteorological field as the most accurate model in the world. Here it is

02:53right in here. You see the little yellow and green? What does the wind shear look like there? Winds at

02:5940,000 feet. What does it look like? Right underneath an upper high. That means low wind shear. That means

03:07this system is going to go. Now it's going to take some time. No doubt about that. Let me show

03:13you the graphic here. This is what we're looking at as far as development is concerned with this

03:19system. Right in here. So early this week, shouldn't do much. Later this week, this is when

03:25it's going to develop in here. Probably a tropical depression. And then the weekend, I think it's a

03:29storm. Should be a hurricane by early next week. But this dip in the jet stream will steer it away

03:34from the United States. That's good news. So we'll keep an eye on it here for you. Really quickly here,

03:40I want to take you to this tropical wave. I talked about this on Friday. Now, this is going to have

03:45some difficulties because of dry air. But if this system develops and can get wear into the Caribbean,

03:54then we're going to have some problems. Why? Because of very warm water and low wind shear.

04:00And if this system survives, look out for the United States. We could have a problem. And that's the feed.