AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva monitor a tropical rainstorm brewing in the Atlantic Ocean. This tropical system is expected to develop into the next named storm, Gabrielle.
00:00Alex, we've been tracking this tropical wave since it came off the west coast of Africa Sunday night.
00:05This is the one that we've been highlighting.
00:07We knew that this would likely be our next storm.
00:10Let's get into it.
00:11Let's take a look at it right now and what we're looking at here as far as any development.
00:18But your impressions of that wave as we have that highlighted right now.
00:23Yeah, I think this is going to be Gabrielle.
00:25That's the next name on the name list here for the Atlantic hurricane season.
00:28But taking a look at it right now, not all that organized right now.
00:31Just a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms right now as it's continuing to push westward across the Atlantic.
00:38Dealing with a lot of hostile conditions right now that's keeping it kind of at bay at the current time.
00:45All right, let's take a look at, of course, Alex, and I'm having a little trouble hearing you just so you know.
00:51When we look at the ingredients, we're looking at dry air, warm water, low wind shear.
00:57We're not worried too much about the warm water that's warming up.
01:01But the dry air, that's something that I think we need to keep an eye on.
01:08Yeah, it certainly is.
01:09We're going to have to watch that dry air.
01:10You can see all of this orange and yellow out in front of this tropical wave right now.
01:15It's got to get through all of this dry air if it's going to have a chance to survive.
01:18And it's really struggling right now.
01:20But we think that as it gets a little bit closer to the islands, it should get into an environment that's a little bit more moist and could allow for some intensification as it approaches the islands next week.
01:32All right.
01:33Let's take a look at the wind shear, Alex, because that's the thing that has us most concerned.
01:38Because as long as this stays south of 20 degrees north, there's a pocket of light purple where we don't have any wind shear.
01:48Yeah, it looks like all that wind shear is really to the north of this tropical rainstorm right now.
01:54And if it takes more of a southern track, it should be able to avoid a lot of that wind shear as it approaches the islands.
01:59If it hangs a little bit more to the north, then that wind shear can really be a disruptor and could really rip the storm apart as it's approaching the islands.
02:07So it's going to be a very delicate balance here, I think, through the weekend and into next week as the storm approaches the islands.
02:13Can it stay south of that wind shear?
02:15That would allow for intensification.
02:16If it's more to the north, then I think that wind shear plays a greater role.
02:20And then maybe in that case, the storm never makes it up to hurricane strength.
02:23And you made an interesting observation, and I agree with it 100 percent, because, yeah, you have the dry air.
02:28But typically, if you have low wind shear and this system develops, these systems tend to produce their own pocket to thrive, and then the dry air isn't all that of a negative for development.
02:44So that's kind of where we're going with here.
02:46Now, it's important to note, we put a track out already for this.
02:50And the reason we do that, Alex, the reason we made that decision is that we need to let everybody know, if you're in the Lesser Antilles, you have to be prepared for a hurricane about a week from now.
03:04Yeah, it's always good to stay ahead of the game here and to prepare.
03:07Of course, we are still a long way out, so a lot can still change.
03:11And again, if the storm is a little bit more on the northern side and really runs into that wind shear, it may never become a hurricane.
03:17So that is certainly a possibility. Of course, that would be the best-case scenario.
03:20You know, we don't want to see a hurricane coming through the islands.
03:23But we really want people to pay attention, because it is certainly a possibility.
03:27If the storm remains south of that wind shear, there's a good chance it could try to intensify here before the islands,
03:33because we expect it to be in a pretty good moisture pocket.
03:36We expect a lot of that dry air to really subside.
03:38We're a long way away from any impact from the United States, but that's the million-dollar question.
03:44That's what everybody wants to know.
03:46In order for this to make it to the United States, though, Alex, there's a lot of hurdles it has to overcome, let's say, next weekend, right?
03:56Yeah, I mean, especially if it takes this track that we're highlighting right now, it would have to get through land masses, right?
04:02It's got to go through Puerto Rico. It's got to go through maybe Hispaniola.
04:05And there's high mountains on some of those islands, which can really disrupt the circulation.
04:09So it's got to get through that.
04:10And then there's also some more wind shear that could be close to the United States,
04:14which could act as a barrier from allowing this to come too close.
04:18So right now, it looks like things would favor a recurve out to sea after it comes through the islands.
04:23But again, we are so far out.
04:25We need to watch this very, very carefully.
04:28AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
04:30Alex, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
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