Concern growing over tropical potential in the Caribbean

AccuWeather

AccuWeather meteorologists say there is the potential for a late-season tropical system to develop in the Caribbean by the middle of the month, just weeks before the hurricane season concludes on Nov. 30.

Transcript

00:00 We're closing on the end of the hurricane season.

00:04 Really, once you get past November 15th, it's very hard to get any tropical systems.

00:09 You can see when you look at the timing of the hurricane season here.

00:12 We've been on the downward trend since September 10th.

00:15 And again, by the time you get into mid-November, very difficult to get any tropical systems

00:20 to develop.

00:21 Now, having said that, you still have to keep an area, I think, on one zone.

00:25 It's the Caribbean.

00:27 That's where you typically can get some development.

00:30 And that is an area that we've been warning you about over the last couple of weeks, that

00:35 if we're going to get development, that's the zone that we're going to see it.

00:39 Across the Atlantic, and by the way, water temperatures here, above normal.

00:43 Here they go.

00:44 They're up above normal by at least a couple of degrees here.

00:47 So still very warm water.

00:49 We haven't had any storms or anything in this area in quite some time.

00:53 So the water has been, what we say, undisturbed.

00:55 Now, across the Atlantic, not much.

00:57 We have a couple of frontal boundaries here.

00:58 You've got to keep an eye on frontal boundaries.

01:00 They sometimes can spark some showers and thunderstorms here.

01:03 You can see one front end here.

01:05 That's why we're getting some clouds across Hispaniola and the Virgin Islands, although

01:09 I'm not looking for any development here over the next couple of days.

01:12 A lot of dry air in the Atlantic Basin.

01:15 Take a look at the water vapor loop here.

01:16 And of course, the dry air denoted by the yellow shading here.

01:19 A lot of wind shear as well.

01:20 I'll show you that map as well.

01:22 But I mean, the southwest Atlantic, there's just so much dry air.

01:26 And even right now in the Gulf of Mexico and much of the Caribbean has dry air.

01:31 So even though we have that frontal boundary that I just showed you, here it is, there's

01:35 so much dry air in the Caribbean.

01:37 We're not going to see any development with that.

01:39 Also, wind shear.

01:40 I have our wind shear product here, where you see the dark purple is where you have

01:43 strong winds.

01:45 Wind shear weakens tropical systems.

01:47 And pretty much right now, the entire Atlantic Basin is shut down for business.

01:55 Only a little sliver here in the southern part of the Caribbean.

01:59 Now next week, here's what we're going to be watching for you.

02:03 Not much going in the Caribbean right now.

02:04 As I mentioned, there's too much wind shear.

02:07 But next week, I think this is an area to watch as we get toward the middle and latter

02:12 half of next week for the chance of some development.

02:15 I think something is going to try to develop down here in the southwest Caribbean.

02:20 But see, here's the kind of the setup here.

02:22 It's a frontal boundary that's going to come south and stall.

02:24 You always look on the south of the front and on the belly of the strong surface high

02:30 pressure systems.

02:31 One mid to late next week will be across mid-Atlantic.

02:33 So this is an area to watch.

02:35 So one thing, though, I think something's going to try to develop out there.

02:40 I don't know if it's going to be a tropical storm, but I certainly think there's going

02:43 to be a depression.

02:44 But here's the thing.

02:45 There's going to be so much wind shear here across the United States, across the Gulf

02:49 of Mexico and Florida.

02:51 Even if this system tried to come this far north, it would get sheared apart.

02:54 Number one.

02:55 Number two, I think there's going to be strong westerly flow here across the United States

03:01 and, in fact, much of the Caribbean.

03:03 So as this system tries to come northward and it will, it would be shunted off to the

03:07 east.

03:08 So I do not see a pathway for development or a landfalling storm for the United States

03:14 here.

03:15 But I would watch this area here from Jamaica, southeast Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the

03:19 Virgin Islands, that we could be looking at some heavy rain here as we get in toward the

03:24 middle and latter half of next week.

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