Tropical rainstorm set to intensify in the Gulf

AccuWeather

After weeks of inactivity, a tropical rainstorm is taking aim at the Gulf of Mexico. Alex DaSilva explains this week's upcoming storm surge.

Transcript

00:00Joining us right now is lead Accuweather hurricane expert Alex DeSilva and Alex

00:06what an unprecedented stretch of inactivity since mid-august through

00:11today we haven't had one named storm but that is about ready that streak is about

00:17ready to end. Yeah it certainly is it looks like we're gonna have Francine

00:21here probably sometime later on today as our system in the Gulf of Mexico is

00:25really starting to get better organized in the last hour or two. Yeah let's take

00:29a look at the infrared satellite picture we have what we think is the

00:32center of circulation it's been an elongated area of low pressure but

00:36certainly on the on the infrared satellite some very dark reds showing

00:41you intense upward motion. Yeah this is a sign that the storm is starting to get

00:46its act together again in the last hour or two we've really seen those

00:49thunderstorms really start to blow up around the center of circulation

00:52hurricane hunters are going out right now they're approaching the storm we're

00:56going to be getting that data in very very shortly and look at all this

00:59lightning right around the center of circulation there again that's another

01:02sign of a organizing and intensifying tropical system. You know we've been

01:08worried since the beginning of this hurricane season that water temperatures

01:11are so warm I think nothing illustrates that more than what we're seeing with

01:16water temperatures in the Bay of Campeche. Yes certainly very impressive

01:19water temperatures mid to even upper 80s in some areas and again it's not just

01:23the waters at the surface these really warm waters extend hundreds and hundreds

01:28of feet down into the Gulf of Mexico here again just it's rocket fuel

01:32essentially for these tropical systems as they come through the area. Not much

01:36on the water vapor loop I don't see any dry air trying to come into that center

01:40of circulation now we're going to continue to see dry air though from

01:44Corpus Christi Galveston toward the Houston area that's also we have wind

01:47shear but boy look at the dark green in the last couple of hours. Yeah it really

01:52looks like the storm has found a pocket where there's low wind shear low dry air

01:56but again you just mentioned look up near Galveston you can see those clouds

01:59moving quickly to the north and to the east that's where the really strong wind

02:03shear is located so the storm right now is in a pocket where it can strengthen

02:07however once it gets up close to the Gulf Coast I think that's when the wind

02:11shear is really going to start to have an impact on this storm. And on the

02:14water vapor loop you could see that movement of air from Corpus Christi

02:18Galveston toward New Orleans that's this dip in the jet stream across the big

02:22bend of Texas this is what it looks like tomorrow Alex and that's what should

02:26protect Texas from a landfalling storm. Yeah we still need to watch the areas

02:31just northeast of Houston you know the track can wobble east and west however I

02:35do think Houston itself will be spared a direct hit from the storm as it looks

02:40like like you mentioned dip in the jet stream should turn the system a little

02:43bit to the north and east and make it landfall somewhere in western or central

02:47Louisiana Friday evening or Wednesday evening excuse me. And Alex you're

02:52talking about the low shelf along the in the Gulf of Mexico right and that's

02:57going to cause pretty combined with the storm to produce a problem with the

03:01storm surge here. Yeah the thing is in the Gulf Coast you can really go to the

03:05beach and you can really walk out pretty far out into the ocean and only have the

03:09water you know come up maybe to your waist that's something we really don't

03:12see on the East Coast where I'm from so this is this can pose a really big

03:16problem for storm surge is that really shallow continental shelf can allow the

03:20water to really pile up ahead of the shoreline and then really roar inward

03:25as the storm comes in so the the largest storm surge records in the Atlantic

03:30Basin a lot of them are from the Gulf Coast. ACUBA the lead hurricane

03:36expert Alex DeSilva. Alex thanks for joining us.

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