High risk of tropical development brewing in Caribbean

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva are monitoring the Caribbean where a risk of tropical development is favorable from Nov. 2-5. Florida is cautioned to keep an eye out on this development.

Transcript

00:00Alex, not much has changed in the last 24 hours as we continue to hone in on the Caribbean

00:08for development.

00:09The only change is, you know, we were thinking that we could see development late this week

00:13over the upcoming weekend.

00:15We've kind of pushed that back a little bit here, a day or two, and the concern is mostly

00:20next week.

00:21Yeah, it has been.

00:23Things sometimes develop a little bit slower in the Caribbean, and so it's going to take

00:26this a little bit of time, I think, to develop.

00:29We still think it's going to develop as we head into November here, but yes, we did push

00:32the dates back on a little bit, calling for it now November 2nd through the 5th there

00:37in the central Caribbean.

00:38And then the area to the northeast of Hispaniola there, that yellow area there, I really don't

00:43think that's going to develop.

00:44There's a lot of wind shear out there, but even if it does, that should not be a threat

00:48to the United States.

00:49All right, already this morning, we have a frontal boundary stalled across the southern

00:53Gulf of Mexico.

00:54This is the pattern that we saw last week, already showers and thunderstorms beginning

00:59to develop here.

01:01And as we go through the ingredients, Alex, let's start with this.

01:06I mean, water temperatures typically aren't a concern in this area.

01:11This time of year, they never are, but they're even a little warmer than normal, those water

01:15temperatures.

01:16Yeah, normal in the Caribbean this time of the year would be in the low 80s for water

01:19temperatures.

01:20We're seeing temperatures in the middle 80s, so plenty of juice, plenty of energy.

01:25So this is the warmest part of the basin right there where we're expecting development.

01:28But the wind shear, that is going to be the ingredient that is, let's say, missing as

01:35we head toward the rest of this week.

01:37It's not low wind shear, it's high wind shear.

01:39Yeah, and that's why we think nothing's going to really develop here for the next couple

01:42of days.

01:43You can see that dark purple across pretty much the entirety of the Atlantic Basin.

01:47But we are going to see a change.

01:49That wind shear is going to lift to the north, but you can see those hostile winds.

01:52You can see, look how fast those clouds are moving across your screen there.

01:55This is the water vapor.

01:56It also gives you an idea about the wind shear as well.

01:59So it's a very hostile environment.

02:00We don't expect anything to develop for the next several days.

02:03But you also notice here in the Caribbean, you don't see a whole lot of orange or red

02:07areas.

02:08That would indicate dry air.

02:09So there's not a whole lot of dry air.

02:11So it's really just the wind shear right now that's holding things back.

02:15And this is why we're so confident.

02:17Once we lose this wind shear, and we think we will lose the wind shear next week, that's

02:23when things really start to organize.

02:25Yeah, most of that wind shear will shift to the north of the Caribbean here.

02:29And so it's going to basically create a pocket.

02:31You're going to have that warm ocean temperatures.

02:33You're going to have plenty of moisture, and you're going to have very low wind shear.

02:36All right.

02:37We talked about this yesterday.

02:38All week we've been talking about scenarios.

02:40The one change we made, Alex, and you and I talked about this yesterday.

02:45Once we push back the development time from late this week to next week, that means there's

02:52no window for this area of development to get into the southwest Atlantic.

02:56Yeah, it looks like a big area of high pressure will develop to the north.

02:59It will push this to the west, we think.

03:02And so then the question becomes, is it strong enough to just push it into Central America?

03:06Or is there a path that can turn it into the eastern Gulf?

03:10And when you look at history of where these storms go in this basin during the month of

03:15November, this is where they can go, either west or towards South Florida.

03:20So we're going to continue to tell South Floridians, keep an eye on this as we get into probably

03:25the latter half of next week.

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