Tropical Storm Melissa has become the 13th named storm of the Atlantic season. It is expected to bring life-threatening flooding to Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola this weekend through next Tuesday.
00:00Joining me right now is Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
00:03John, we have the whole block here.
00:06We're going to methodically break this down.
00:09We're going to first deal with what we're looking at now,
00:12what we think is going to happen with intensity and why.
00:15Will it get to the United States?
00:17And then we're going to talk about impacts.
00:19Let's talk about what we're looking at right now.
00:22Well, the satellite presentation, what a difference a day makes,
00:26or even a half a day in terms of the presentation of the storm.
00:29Now you can see the classic circle signature here
00:34in terms of the alignment of those thunderstorms all developing.
00:37The storm is intensifying, now designated by a tropical storm
00:41by the National Hurricane Center with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour.
00:45Of course, this is no surprise to AccuWeather customers
00:48because AccuWeather issued our first track for this storm about 12 hours ago
00:53so people could be better informed and stay safer.
00:55And the big story here, Bernie, and our concern is how slow the storm is going to move
01:01and the flooding potential, as you mentioned, in areas of steep terrain.
01:05The concern we've always had, John, and why we were really highlighting this wave
01:09is that we knew that any tropical wave with any kind of organization
01:14that got into the Caribbean would be helped by tremendously warm waters.
01:20And that water can mask other ingredients that aren't available to it.
01:26That is correct.
01:27And these storms can take advantage of that warm water and rapidly intensify.
01:32Look at the temperatures here.
01:34This is comparing the current water temperatures,
01:37which are about 80 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit, with the long-term historic average.
01:41And we find that they're 3 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit on average above that historic average.
01:47So this is very warm water.
01:49It's like bath water.
01:50It could be rocket fuel for a developing tropical storm
01:54in the right atmospheric conditions to quickly take off.
01:57And that's our concern.
01:58All right.
01:59Do we have any dry air coming into the system?
02:01We take a look at the water of April, but John, I don't see any.
02:04I don't see any that yellow coming into the storm.
02:08What I see is it getting pushed away a little bit.
02:11Yeah, and that would be what we expect.
02:13You could see the greater moisture sort of fanning out from the storm.
02:16It's starting to create its own environment, its own moisture pouch here,
02:21as we see with these types of systems.
02:23And so we don't think dry air is going to be a significant factor inhibiting intensification.
02:27I'm telling you what, this is the saving grace right now.
02:31Because there is a lot of wind shear.
02:3315 degrees north goes from Nicaragua, Honduras, all the way toward the central,
02:39the dividing line between the Windward and Leeward Islands here in the Lesser Antilles here.
02:44And north of that line, John, there's a lot of wind shear.
02:47And that's where we think this is going.
02:48The wind shear showing you that dark purple highlighting that higher wind shear.
02:53That's right.
02:54But notice on this graphic that the further south and west that the storm could track,
03:00that's less wind shear.
03:01That would be more favorable for further intensification.
03:05That's a key point to keep in mind.
03:07All right.
03:07Here's our track, John.
03:08And again, a slow drift to the north.
03:11And I mentioned the wind shear, John.
03:13If we didn't have this wind shear, this would be a major hurricane.
03:16And it would probably go to a Category 4, Category 5 status.
03:20I don't think there's any question about that.
03:21But that slow move north in the wind shear, that would limit its intensity.
03:28But the slow movement is really concerning for Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica.
03:36It sure is in terms of the risk to produce life-threatening flooding.
03:40And when you look at this map, the thing that stands out to me very quickly is how close these points are
03:46from later Wednesday into Sunday.
03:49Look, the storm doesn't move very far at all.
03:51So it's only crawling in the Caribbean.
03:54And so that means that we're going to have persistent heavy rain,
03:57sometimes rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour along areas of steep mountainous terrain.
04:03That has us very concerned about the risk for major flooding that could become a humanitarian crisis
04:12in some of these countries if the storm is able to produce heavy rain over the same areas.
04:18And that is our big concern.
04:19The window is a very large window, John.
04:23Let's go over the possibilities here.
04:26There's a possibility of a turn to the north.
04:29Then there's a possibility of more of a west track.
04:32Right, and we have to cover for that because there is some reliable guidance that suggests that the storm
04:37could be drawn quickly to the north here over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
04:42So that's why AccuWeather hurricane experts have elected to have the window of movement opened up to the right.
04:48And on the left side, there's also potential, and we think this is a greater risk here,
04:52that the storm could actually track further to the west, remain over that warm water with less shear.
04:58You saw that on the last graphic.
05:00And if it's able to do that, there would be less rain further north here in the Caribbean.
05:04But this would be a much more intense storm, which raises other concerns.
05:08All right.
05:08Now, let's talk about it.
05:09We're going to get to the impacts in the Caribbean.
05:11For those that are living in Florida, I mentioned at the top of the broadcast, it's about a 20 percent chance.
05:17My concern is, and you and I have talked about this for a long time here, is that there is a window toward the United States.
05:25Now, the farther west it goes this weekend, it opens up the window.
05:30But let's just assume it's near Jamaica.
05:33It could be a little farther to the south.
05:34It could be near there as we get into Monday.
05:36Then we look to the west, that dip in the jet stream, trying to figure out where that's going to be,
05:43because that will then determine how quickly the storm turns to the north, then northeast.
05:50And we brought in our long-range experts, Paul Paslok and Joe Lumberg.
05:56They helped guide us on where that dip in the jet stream will be.
05:59Right, we had a great conversation with the crystal ball, Joe Lumberg, and AccuWeather's lead long-range expert, Paul Paslok.
06:08Both believe that this is going to be an intense storm that develops along the eastern part of the United States later next week.
06:15So this is not any time soon.
06:17I want to point that out.
06:18That's the middle of next week, toward the end of next week, or even next weekend.
06:22That's toward the end of the month, like around Halloween.
06:25And that's how long this storm could be meandering in the Caribbean.
06:28There is the chance it could come closer, up close to South Florida, as you mentioned, about 20% risk.
06:34Otherwise, it might be carried up toward the Bahamas.
06:36It's all going to depend on the timing and orientation of this dip in the jet stream, which looks like a big factor.
06:43And we do not believe right now, John, that the Florida Panhandle, back toward Texas, is in play at all.
06:49It's the Florida Peninsula.
06:50Okay, so we've got a long way to figure that out, so we're going to continue to watch it.
06:54Let's talk about the impacts, and, of course, our number one concern is the rain.
06:58Very concerning setup.
07:0012 to 18 inches of rain co-located with mountains.
07:04That is a recipe for a very serious flooding situation.
07:08There's an AccuWeather local storm max of 30 inches here.
07:12Remember, mountains help create more lift in the atmosphere.
07:15And when you have that kind of a setup, that promotes these heavy rainfall rates.
07:19And that's why we're very concerned that this could become a serious, life-threatening situation with catastrophic flooding and the risk for mudslides that could involve lots of people needing lots of support and help in terms of the basic needs.
07:34Food, water, medical care, things of that nature across parts of the Caribbean should the storm be drawn to the north.
07:40There's still an exit route if that storm ends up further west.
07:43That's going to reduce the risk for that type of a catastrophic disaster.
07:47But we have to highlight that that could occur.
07:50That's why AccuWeather experts have this rated as a 2 on AccuWeather's real impact scale for hurricanes.
07:55And that rating may go higher if we get convinced that that heavy rain risk is going to be elevated.
08:01And, John, we are going to add an extreme on this map, I understand, across southern parts of Haiti within a ride along the south coast, correct?
08:10That is right.
08:11Extreme risk across the south coast of Haiti toward parts of the Dominican Republic.
08:15All right.
08:15AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
08:18Melissa, the first storm in the Caribbean of the season.
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