00:00A lot of the modeling was showing that this was going into the western panel of Florida
00:04here at AccuWeather. We did not believe that. We issued our IPATH map earlier than anybody.
00:11In fact, we're the only ones known sources that I know of that still has an IPATH. We'll get to
00:18that in a second. Let's get your impressions of our tropical rainstorm right now, looking at it
00:23on the infrared satellite. Right, Bernie, that's right. Good morning. We issued that
00:28exclusively, that first IPATH, so that people can be better informed and stay safer. That's
00:34what we do here at AccuWeather. Share the information that we have in order to help
00:38you best prepare. And we are concerned about this situation on a couple of reasons. One is
00:44this is heading into a part of the Gulf of Mexico here over the next couple of days that's infamous
00:49for storms rapidly intensifying. So we think we could be dealing with a stronger entity here as
00:56it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. And then down the road, Bernie, looks like this is going to
00:59slow down and prolong impacts across the southeast. Let's talk about the intensification.
01:06You can see this map now. This map has not changed. You and I actually drew this map last
01:11week when we were going over this. We always knew that when it got into the Gulf of Mexico,
01:16everything is lined up for development. And historically, this is an area that storms tend
01:22to really intensify quickly. And part of the reason is the warm water temperatures. And they're
01:27even warmer than they normally are. They sure are. Look at that map. That is incredibly warm water,
01:34not only just right at the surface of the ocean, but also through a depth of the ocean. That's
01:40power. That's energy that a developing tropical system, tropical rainstorm, depression, and
01:46eventually in a tropical storm can use in order to gain wind intensity quite rapidly. The problem is,
01:51Bernie, that part of the Gulf of Mexico is known for those storms intensifying quickly. That's why
01:57we're concerned about dealing with a tropical storm and perhaps even a hurricane as the storm
02:01approaches Florida. I want to show you the current wind shear. Still a little wind shear, that dark
02:05purple shading that we're seeing right now. But here's the problem. Less wind shear in that area
02:12historically where we see storms go to town with the delta. Now, you and I were talking about this.
02:18We're talking about the west coast of Florida, not the east coast of Florida. But historically,
02:23when history tends to repeat itself, there's a couple of areas that are very prone
02:29to hurricane or named storm landfalls along the west coast of Florida.
02:35Yeah, that's right. Especially that area, the Big Bend portion of Florida, the Florida coastline,
02:41and then also south of Tampa, down toward Fort Myers and Naples. Those are the historically
02:46favored areas for landfalling storms. Doesn't mean that storms can't make landfall elsewhere,
02:51but those are the areas that sometimes we hone in on because history tells us that's more common.
02:56It is very rare for a landfalling storm to come into the Tampa area. Doesn't mean it can't happen,
03:02but you know what, John? History tends to repeat itself with these tropical systems. And you can
03:09see some of the footage that we have seen. I want to show you this, John. This is our eye path as we
03:15go forward here, John, because listen, right now we're thinking near the Big Bend of Florida,
03:20but it is certainly possible that we could be looking at a landfalling storm south of Tampa
03:27toward the Fort Myers, Sarasota area. If that happens, that would be more likely Sunday morning.
03:35If it's farther north, it's Sunday night. And that has ramifications for the intensity.
03:40It sure does because the longer it's out over the Gulf of Mexico,
03:43that warm water in a favorable condition for further intensification, the more intense the
03:48storm can be. That's why we always tell, recommend people to not focus only on the center point of
03:53where the storm is tracking, but that window of movement, the edges there. So everyone along the
03:58west coast of Florida certainly needs to be aware of potential landfall there. And there will be
04:03widespread impacts beyond just where the landfall occurs with the risk for damaging winds, flooding
04:08rainfall, four to eight inches of rain in many parts of the western part of Florida. And there
04:13can be actually eight to 12 inches in some areas as well. So that's going to be a major part of
04:18this storm. People need to prepare for power outages, the risk for flooding in these areas.
04:23And again, the storm can intensify further. And if that occurs, we're going to be dealing with
04:28greater impacts across Florida and also up into the Carolinas. Don't let your guard down there,
04:33Bernie, because the indications are that the storm's movement could slow
04:36into early next week, prolonging impacts. Let's really talk about this. We're going
04:42with an AccuWeather Real Impact Scale of one, John. Let's talk about the decision
04:46to go in that direction. That's right. So that indicates, again, we're concerned about flooding
04:51concerns, wind damage, power outages, all possibility. Though, Bernie, this could become
04:57an AccuWeather Real Impact Scale 2 if we see the risk for further intensification or the storm
05:04slowing down even further up into the Carolinas where we have concerns about beach erosion,
05:09coastal flooding, and major flooding issues, especially if that storm slows way down,
05:13as we are concerned it may. Impacts along the west coast of Florida, possible landfalls, Big Bend
05:19of Florida, the Big Bite, or south of Tampa. Impacts, though, across the entire west
05:24coast of Florida. And then also, look out Carolinas, Georgia coast with heavy rain next week.
05:30Sure is. Great resource, the AccuWeather app. You can see this all on interactive maps,
05:34a free download. All right. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter. John,
05:37thanks for joining us here today.
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