Potential East coast impacts next week

With some tropical development, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter shares how much rain to expect along the coast.

Transcript

00:00It's still a long way away from the southeast coast. So here's Florida and obviously the

00:04Carolina coastline, the Bahamas, and then of course you have to go all the way down into

00:09the Caribbean to see this developing tropical rainstorm. Lots of thunderstorm activity today,

00:15but it's still pretty disorganized, and it's going to take some time to get into a more

00:19favorable situation here north of Hispaniola and over toward the Turks and Caicos and eventually

00:25the Bahamas where conditions are more favorable that this can likely develop into a tropical storm.

00:30We're kind of transitioning from a zone of high shear that has kept it in check to this point

00:34to on its northwestern horizon. We have a little bit more of that lighter shade there, so that will

00:39allow for more development. That's correct. When we talk about wind shear, we're talking about winds

00:44that are, as you go up through the atmosphere, changing speed or direction. That's wind shear,

00:49and that holds back the development of tropical storms. And you can see that in the darker colors

00:56here, darker purples, that is more wind shear, so that would be a limiter on the development

01:01potential. But as you get out toward the Bahamas, there's less shear, and that's where we expect

01:07this to be able to ramp up a bit. So this storm has a couple of additional variables beyond the typical

01:12because of Alberto sitting off to the northeast. How could that perhaps or perhaps not impact this

01:18storm's path? Well, it's all going to depend on just how far west Umberto is, because if Umberto

01:23is further to the west and this developing tropical, likely developing tropical storm ends up a little

01:30bit weaker, it could actually draw into Umberto and sort of be absorbed, and that would reduce the risk

01:37for direct landfall on the U.S. east coast. That's one scenario. In another scenario, Umberto stays far

01:43enough away, so there's limited interaction, at least early on, and then a storm will come up through

01:47the Bahamas this weekend, likely as a tropical storm, and then it's going to have a big fork in

01:52the road here, Jeff, as we head toward, uh, the early part of next week, and that is, does the storm

01:57move off to the, off to the east coast with a limited risk, off the east coast with a limited risk

02:02of rain or wind impacts, or does it stay on its course and take it toward, especially the Carolina

02:10coastline? Those are the options that are open, so it's a wide option from a direct landfall, uh, or a path that could be

02:17out to sea, and that may occur eventually here with this particular storm, so you want to check back

02:22into with us here frequently at AccuWeather.com and the free AccuWeather app, and look at this area

02:26that we're highlighting as the greatest risk for direct rain and wind impacts. That's the coast, uh,

02:31coastal areas across portions of South Carolina, especially from Charleston northward through the, uh,

02:37North Carolina coast, but we have a moderate risk through the Georgia coast and all the way down

02:42into Florida, so we cannot rule out impacts there, and it's a possibility that some of those impacts

02:47could be, uh, outer rain or, uh, outer rain bands and some gusty winds even along the, for example,

02:53space coast of Florida as the storm moves northward, so a very important story to watch. We have time to

02:58prepare, but we're going to ask everybody in the southeastern United States to be frequently checking

03:02back with us. All right, so September 28th is Sunday. We're looking at most likely maybe Monday,

03:07Tuesday, significant impacts, but again, we open the door for some of the rain and wind on Sunday.

03:13Thanks again, AccuWeather chief meteorologist John Porter. Always good insight.