00:00Six named storms so far in the 2025 Atlantic season here, fur down, which is still out in the Atlantic, moving away.
00:09Seventh named storm, when do we typically get it? Well, we typically see that seventh named storm September 3rd.
00:17I think it may wait a little later than that for this season here.
00:21Second hurricane, we've only had one Aaron. We see August 26th, so we're a little behind on the calendar there.
00:26Second major hurricane, we've already had the first Aaron, typically not until September 19th.
00:32Pretty quiet across the Atlantic basin. Again, we still do have burn down well off to the north in the Atlantic.
00:39Three tropical waves, you can see them in the Atlantic basin right now, but they really are not going to develop here over the next couple of days.
00:47The reason being, there's just too much dry air in the tropical Atlantic here.
00:52Let me show you the water vapor loop, and you can see all of the dry air here across the Atlantic basin right now.
00:59There it is. And again, dry air and wind shear.
01:02When you have dry air and wind shear, you're not going to get development of tropical systems.
01:06There's all the dry air denoted by the yellow shading.
01:09There's pockets of moisture, but where you have the pockets of moisture, you have what?
01:14Wind shear denoted by the purple look at a lot of wind shear, especially in the Caribbean.
01:18So even if anything can make it out through that dry air in the Atlantic and get into the Caribbean when there's less dry air, there's still quite a bit of wind shear here.
01:26So at this point, it seems unlikely we're going to get any development in the tropical Atlantic.
01:31The one area to watch is here as we head in the latter half of August into September.
01:36Maybe as we get to early next week, we can get a tropical depression or storm.
01:40But I'll tell you what, this will be the second Labor Day we're projecting of not having a hurricane in the Atlantic basin.
01:47The last time that happened for two consecutive years, 1991 and 1992.
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