00:00Well, it's hard to believe we're a little over a week away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season,
00:06six months in length.
00:09Let me show you the, let me show you the, what the season looks like here.
00:21All right, here we go. So this is what the speed, the hurricane season looks like here.
00:31So it starts June 1st, but of course, much or many of the storms are right in here.
00:38I mean, this is where you see most of the named storms and large majority of the hurricanes are going
00:44to be mid-August through the month of September and even into October.
00:48But you'll notice in here, while you don't have many hurricanes, it doesn't have much, you get some storms.
00:54It could be as early as May. We've seen it. And through the month of June, you do get some
01:00named storms.
01:01However, the way in which you get named storms is a little different during the early part of the season
01:10than during the heart of the hurricane season.
01:13During the heart of the hurricane season, you're tracking tropical waves that come across the Atlantic.
01:17Right now, in the Atlantic, any tropical wave will have a hard time making it toward the Caribbean or even
01:25into the Gulf because you have too much wind shear and you tend to have too much dry air.
01:30The way in which you get in development this time of year is what I call homegrown development.
01:35Because think about it this way, without the advent of tropical waves that can form in the tropical depressions,
01:41you need something else to kickstart the process for showers and thunderstorms, right?
01:46It's the interaction between the jet stream and the tropics.
01:50That's how you get homegrown development here.
01:53The jet stream comes down and what it does is it either produces an upper low that can sit over
02:00the warm water.
02:01Either you'll get an area of low pressure or you get a frontal boundary that stalls, you start to get
02:06showers and thunderstorms,
02:07you produce an area of low pressure.
02:10That low pressure sits over mostly these waters because you don't get homegrown,
02:15you don't get the jet stream this far south and west in the tropical Atlantic,
02:19but you can get it in the Gulf, southeast coast of the United States and the Caribbean.
02:23And after that low pressure forms and you can get that low pressure to sit for 48 hours,
02:30you can slowly but surely produce a tropical system.
02:34Sometimes it's a subtropical storm, a system that has both non-tropical characteristics and tropical characteristics.
02:42And if you think about it this way, it's because of that dip in the jet stream,
02:46in the northern branch of the jet stream that produces a non-tropical characteristic.
02:50So my question to you with that is, are we going to see a pattern soon that has a dip
02:57in the jet stream?
02:58And the answer is, actually, yes.
03:01Take a look at this.
03:02As we get into next week, this is European.
03:05This is a week from now, European and the GFS.
03:09European, GFS.
03:10They both have this dip in the jet stream, although the European, this is the American model,
03:15is a little deeper with it.
03:16See this?
03:17It goes all the way down in here, right?
03:20So you're going to end up getting a frontal boundary or energy that is going to be getting into the
03:26northern Caribbean.
03:27And if I look at that view, I want you to show you what's happening here as we get into
03:33Friday.
03:33This is the European.
03:34There's your dip in the jet stream.
03:35I want you to watch this as we get into next week.
03:39Watch what happens.
03:40Let's get into Tuesday.
03:41You've got this piece of energy down here in the Caribbean.
03:44So what happens is, as this jet stream energy comes south into the Gulf, watch what happens to that energy.
03:51You see it?
03:52There it goes.
03:53There it goes.
03:53Here it comes.
03:54Right in here.
03:55You see that?
03:56And then all of a sudden, it's drawn northward by that dip in the jet stream and brings it right
04:01across Florida.
04:03The GFS, very similar.
04:05Look at the energy.
04:06It's down in here, the American model.
04:08What does it do?
04:09Well, that dip in the jet stream, here it comes, draws it northward.
04:12Now, the GFS suggests, well, yes, that energy is coming out Friday into Saturday, but it's not coming up in
04:19here, but it's coming out in here.
04:22So I think you're going to have something in the tropics coming across either Florida or Cuba, Jamaica, and into
04:34the Bahamas as we get into a week from now.
04:37Do I think there will be enough for this to become a tropical entity?
04:42Probably not.
04:44Probably not.
04:46I think the atmosphere won't be strong enough, but that's something you've got to keep an eye on.
04:53I don't like the Europeans showing this.
04:56And again, we're talking about a week from now, but you'll notice that on the European, as that energy comes
05:02out in here, this dip in the jet stream drops into it.
05:07Enhances it.
05:07Look how it gets a little redder in here.
05:09You see that energy going across Florida?
05:11That's Friday.
05:12I'm going to keep an eye on it.
05:13I don't think it's going to develop, but it is something to watch.
05:17One other thing to keep an eye on as we get into early June.
05:22Both of the modeling, European and GFS, show this.
05:26Watch as I show this.
05:27This is Saturday.
05:29This is Sunday, the 31st.
05:30Look at this on Monday.
05:32There's the European.
05:33You've got an upper low sitting here.
05:35You see that right here off the southeast coast of the United States.
05:41This is another way if this upper low could sit off the southeast coast of the United States, it's something
05:49to keep an eye on.
05:50Now, the American model, similar but different because what does it do?
05:56It takes the dip in the jet stream, but it's way far north.
06:00So, I think based on that, on what I'm saying, what I'm looking at here, this is what I'm suggesting.
06:07Well, I don't think there's a high likelihood of any tropical development.
06:12It's not zero.
06:13And I think you've got to watch these areas a week from now, Florida and Cuba, that something is coming
06:21out.
06:21Now, it may just bring showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain to this area.
06:25That's the more likely scenario when it's not a tropical entity.
06:31And the other thing to watch is early in June, watch off the southeast coast of the United States.
06:37Low probabilities, but not zero, as we get ready for the start of the Atlanta hurricane season.
06:45Low probabilities, but not zero, as we get ready for the start of the Atlanta hurricane season.
Comments