Bernie Rayno explains that a combination of dry air, wind shear and cooler waters in the Atlantic basin is reducing the likelihood of tropical storm development, making a storm-free Labor Day weekend a real possibility.
00:00But out about it, we are in the heart of the hurricane season as we transition from August into September.
00:05Take a look at the timing of the hurricane season, number of storms per day since 1944, ending in 2020.
00:11And you can see that sharp incline, the yellow name storms, that includes tropical storms and hurricanes, and then the red in the hurricane.
00:18So again, this is the time of the year you have to watch out in the tropical Atlantic.
00:23And by the way, Labor Day is an interesting day because most years you're tracking at least a tropical storm or a hurricane.
00:30You know last year on Labor Day, we didn't have either, and there's a possibility we won't have it this year.
00:36And if that happens, it will be the first time since 1991 and 1992 we had two consecutive years with no name storm on Labor Day.
00:46It might be a little close this year because we are watching a tropical wave coming off Africa later on this week here, later on this week.
00:53All right, water temperature anomalies.
00:55Look at this.
00:55This is from Aaron, by the way.
00:57You can see what happened is Aaron was such a strong storm.
01:00It churned up the oceans.
01:01You had a lot of upwelling, so water temperature is cool.
01:04These are the anomalies.
01:05The concern is the Gulf of Mexico.
01:07This is a ticking time bomb, and that's not hyperbole, all right?
01:11You can't get the waters this warm compared to history.
01:15And if you get anything into the Gulf with low wind shear and plenty of moisture, you're going to have an intensifying hurricane.
01:23We'll keep an eye on that.
01:24A couple of tropical waves that we're watching for you here this morning.
01:28But I'll tell you what, one, two, three, four, the problem is in the Atlantic Basin, at least right now, you have two things going against anything developing.
01:36You have too much dry air, denoted by the yellow shading, and what else do you have?
01:41Too much wind shear, right, denoted by the purple shading across the Atlantic Basin here.
01:47Having said that, two areas we're going to watch, homegrown development and develop Africa.
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