00:00Our team of hurricane experts are watching the storm minute by minute.
00:03One of the things that we're seeing here is that there are signs of intensification.
00:07You can see some greater development of these bands to the north of the storm.
00:11Also, greater consolidation of thunderstorms associated with it.
00:15And as Jeff mentioned, another factor is it is starting to move a bit north of due west.
00:22And so we expect a little bit more of a northwesterly component here over time.
00:26And this will become a hurricane over the coming hours by tomorrow morning.
00:32All right, John.
00:32So we were just detailing the overall trend and the eyepath here.
00:36This is an AccuWeather exclusive eyepath.
00:38So what about this particular eyepath specifically really stands out to you?
00:43Well, there's a couple of different components.
00:44First of all, I want to make mention this is AccuWeather's hurricane forecast developed by our hurricane experts, independent of the government.
00:51And you can access this on the AccuWeather.com website and the AccuWeather app on interactive maps that allow you to zoom in and look at all the different types of impacts.
01:00What's going to be occurring here with this is that the storm is going to continue to move to the north and west.
01:05Eventually, by the weekend, as it's rapidly intensifying north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, that storm is going to be intensifying into a major hurricane and being drawn to the north.
01:15And it's going to make a close enough approach that we think there can be heavy rain and flash flooding concerns in some of the northern Caribbean islands here, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in particular, as well as some wind gusts to 40 to 60 miles per hour in those areas.
01:30And, of course, that's some steep terrain in Puerto Rico.
01:32There can be two to four inches of rain with an AccuWeather local storm max of seven inches there.
01:37And then the storm will be moving to the north.
01:39And the key question here is how close will it get to the North Carolina coastline as it's taking this turn back out to sea, it appears.
01:47And it does look like it's going to come.
01:49It can come closer enough to the coast that there's a concern for impacts there.
01:53And that's why AccuWeather hurricane experts are the only source that have the far edge of our window of movement where the storm can be located right along the North Carolina coast.
02:03And if it is closer to the coast, there can be significant impacts there.
02:06That's right.
02:06And the timeline on that is going to be right around midweek.
02:08So, John, one of the main things we're talking about, everyone wants to know what the impacts are going to be specifically for the East Coast.
02:14So, whenever it comes to breaking down those impacts, first, you have to break down the different scenarios possible for the overall track and path that Aaron is going to take.
02:24Yeah, that's correct.
02:25And the biggest fork in the road here is around the early afternoon on Sunday.
02:30Will the storm start taking a greater route to the north, a more northerly route?
02:34If it does that, there will be a greatly reduced risk of any impacts across Florida and parts of South Carolina, for example.
02:41And then the question at that point would be across North Carolina and other locations to the north.
02:46If it were to take a more southerly route, then that would greatly increase the risks across Florida and South Carolina.
02:52We think the northerly route is favored by a significant margin, but that's why we have not yet all cleared Florida from the risks associated with the storm.
03:01That's right, John.
03:02So, this is the overall scenario one that we were tracking that we're primarily forecasting for, which is more of that northwardly track.
03:08So, kind of break down for us why we think our thinking is for the forecast that this is going to be the most logical and likely scenario.
03:16Well, it's going to all come down to the location of this area of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and the timing of this dip in the jet stream.
03:22With a faster dip in the jet stream here with this jet stream disturbance, the jet stream will act as a kicker and will kick the storm out to sea.
03:30That looks like the most likely scenario.
03:32If that is a little bit slower and further to the west, then the storm can be drawn closer to the coast, and obviously that would be a more concerning setup.
03:40But right now, it favors, our thinking favors that there's a 70% chance that there will not be direct impacts from rain and wind along the U.S. east coast.
03:51So, the greatest probability is around that there would not be direct rain and wind impacts at the coast.
03:56But that means that there's a 30% chance that there could be.
03:59And on the next final graphic, we'll show you that the area of most concern for that.
04:04We, of course, have a low risk all the way from parts of Atlanta, Canada through western Florida associated with the storm system.
04:13But the greatest risk for impacts, around 30%, the lower end of that medium risk level, would be across the North Carolina coastline.
04:21The outer banks there, that's the area that has to pay closest attention.
04:24But all the rest of the coastline is still on alert for potential impacts.
04:28All right, John, and just one more time there for that outer bank risk map or risk area that you just highlighted right there.
04:34What's the highest likelihood for timeline for those folks there along the Carolina and Virginia coasts?
04:39Yeah, that would be the middle of next week, so centered around Wednesday.
04:43So, there's plenty of time for you to keep checking with us here at AccuWeather.com and in the AccuWeather app to stay safer and best informed.
04:50All right, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, thank you so much for the details.
04:53And something tells me we're going to be checking in with you here a lot more coming up.
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