Beyond Erin, more tropical trouble is already brewing

DeIt's likely that we'll see Tropical Storm Fernand while Erin is still spinning off the East Coast.

Transcript

00:00We're going to take a look at what's going on elsewhere beyond air and out into the Atlantic.

00:06And we're watching a few areas of deep convection.

00:08You can see a large zone here of deep convection and a couple of different concern zones.

00:13We put another bubble on it.

00:14While there's a lot of deep convection southwest of the center of this next disturbance,

00:19we really expect the center of this to kind of begin to focus a little north of the deeper zone of convection.

00:25So far south here, south of north 10 degrees, north latitude, we will be watching this disturbance.

00:32And there's another one behind that as well.

00:35So we're going to get into a time period where Fernand may soon follow.

00:39We have a high risk for development coming out of that next plume of moisture, the next tropical wave.

00:45And while we expect this to likely organize into a tropical depression, possibly a tropical storm,

00:50from this weekend into early next week, the likelihood of this intensifying as much as we saw with Aaron is fairly limited.

00:59There is a lot more wind shear in the path of this storm.

01:01So look at this here.

01:02In the short term, it's in a zone with limited wind shear.

01:06So it's a pretty healthy tropical wave at the moment.

01:07But there is a big speed bump here and a pretty broad speed bump from east to west.

01:12In fact, it is about, what, 10 degrees longitude.

01:15You can see every 5 degrees longitude, there's another north-south line here on the map.

01:20That's a pretty sizable zone of strong wind shear.

01:23So that's going to be a big hurdle for this.

01:25But then there's a somewhat limited zone of less wind shear where it could organize.

01:29But then behind that, another zone of stronger wind shear.

01:32So it could become a named entity this weekend.

01:35But we're going to be watching this strong flow coming off of the east coast, a relatively deep trough.

01:40And I think that's going to protect us here from that one.

01:43Farther east, the next one behind likely what could become Fernand.

01:47Here we have another storm with a medium chance for development.

01:51So the tropical wave train is alive and well.