00:00Well this time of the year with the forecast feed we do tend to turn our
00:03eyes south to the tropics. Atlantic hurricane season set to start June 1st.
00:09That doesn't necessarily mean suddenly the Atlantic lights up with activity. In
00:13fact it takes some time typically for the Atlantic to become more alive here
00:20with activity. And this year there's going to be a lot of shear at times. Strong El
00:24Nino. Warmer than average water in the Pacific along the equator. Slightly
00:30cooler tendency for parts of the Atlantic right now. But also a lot of wind shear
00:36is a strong correlation there. But we do need to keep an eye on what's going on
00:39in the Caribbean and the Gulf. So let's take a look at where we often see
00:43development in the month of June. So here are your tropical system breeding areas
00:48if you will for the Atlantic and the Gulf and the near shore waters for the
00:53Bahamas up into the area near and off of the Carolina coast. We tend to not see a
00:57whole lot of action farther out there because there's just a lot of wind shear
01:01that kind of keeps things in check a little farther east. Meanwhile the wind
01:08shear tends to drop off at times at least near the Caribbean and the Gulf. And
01:12another thing is that we often face a lot of dry air in the tropical Atlantic out in
01:17the main development area halfway to Africa this time of the year. Well we are
01:21going to be dealing with extra moisture in some of these areas a little closer to
01:24home. So let's look at what's going on. And what has our eye really a couple of
01:28things. There's going to be a trough of low pressure that sets up shop near
01:34Florida. Now the core of the upper level winds will be stronger up into the area
01:39around the Carolinas. This is early to mid next week. But there's a little
01:44reflection of that trough down into areas around Florida. So the true jet stream it is
01:50farther north. But again it'll be closer to Florida. And whenever we get interaction
01:55between the jet stream or the subtropical jet and warm tropical water there can
02:02sometimes be the impetus for a dip in the jet stream to help to spin something up
02:07here. It can impart a little bit of circulation over an area of tropical
02:11moisture. In this case the trough is going to be camping out but it does ultimately
02:17move east and it doesn't have too much residence time over the actual gulf. It
02:22just kind of clips the gulf and it's out over the area northeast of the Bahamas for
02:26a time. But what also has our eye. So that's one thing. But another thing is this
02:31increasing surge of moisture that kind of breaks off from Central America and begins
02:37to surge north. And you can see an area with those brighter colors. That's an area of
02:42spin in the atmosphere of vorticity. So that's ultimately like a tropical or subtropical disturbance
02:47that begins to pull north. And you can see this then finds itself over the central gulf
02:52in the world of the GFS Wednesday night to Thursday. It's pretty well removed from this
02:57trough. But it's something we just have to keep an eye on. How does it look in the European
03:01model? There's a similar theme. Chunks of energy coming north from Central America. In general the
03:08European has been farther west. And if there's a tendency here, a trend, both models have
03:15jogged a bit farther west. There was a time when the GFS was producing a named storm near
03:19Florida. Now it's abandoned that scenario. Now it's bringing a zone of extra moisture and
03:25a little bit of rotation into the central gulf. The European was in the central gulf. Now
03:30the European's over the western gulf. So there's certainly a trend west. And really I think the
03:35message here is that the trend is for whatever comes out of Central America to be even more
03:40removed from the trough coming out off the east coast. So there's probably not much interaction
03:46there. And the risk of or the chance of this becoming a named storm is even less. Regardless,
03:52there's going to be some tropical moisture out there. And we're thinking about drought
03:56relief in this context. Even if we are not seeing a named storm, there will be an increase
04:01in showers and thunderstorms in some area tied to this plume of moisture. The precipitable
04:06water is a map that shows in maroon and magenta. So again, kind of abandon your thoughts about
04:11blue being wet. In this case, maroon and the rust colors there are where we have more moisture.
04:18And the pink is where we have even more moisture. Here's the scale. You get up into the yellows,
04:23oranges, reds, and then pinks and purples. That's the abundant moisture. And this, if you
04:28were to basically rain out all the moisture in the atmosphere above your head and bring
04:32it down at once, this is how much rain we would get. Some spots, three plus inches of
04:38rain there in areas like Nicaragua and Honduras. So the GFS is trending west with this and ultimately
04:46into the central gulf. We've had over 16 inches of rain in Mobile, Alabama in May. And here's
04:51the axis of moisture that would bring more drought relief to some. With the European, it's a little
04:57farther west, you can see it's kind of more, it kind of avoids Florida a bit more and it's
05:04a little more directed into areas around maybe Lake Charles, Louisiana. It's a subtle difference,
05:09but if there is a theme, the GFS is wetter in Florida and the European is drier in Florida.
05:16Here you can see this trough off the east coast. Here comes another trough off the east coast,
05:21basically a pair of fronts that move off the east coast. They're so far removed. And just
05:26to show you, we don't really see what the GFS once indicated being a named storm spinning up to the
05:33Florida coast. It's kind of abandoned that idea. Here's the GFS AI version, not seeing that. It's
05:38just a disorganized disturbance that brings extra rain. Here's the European into the central and
05:43western gulf. Here's the European AI looking at next week, just generally favoring more rain in the
05:49central and western gulf. And now the Canadian, Canadian has a tendency to spin a lot of things up
05:54here with the butterfly flaps, its wings, it tends to spin something up. And even this fails to produce
05:59anything organized, but it brings some extra rain favoring the Louisiana coast. And here is a forecast
06:05of how much rain might fall over the next week, week and a half. More drought relief in parts of
06:10the
06:10southeast, but still the central gulf coast kind of a favorite area in the GFS and in the European.
06:15The general message is just a little farther west into parts of east Texas and Louisiana. Here's the
06:22Louisiana-Texas line. And there's the shape of Louisiana trying to draw the boot there.
06:27So overall, that's the general idea. So how we're playing this with our graphics forecast-wise,
06:33what we're kind of pushing out to the public. A big plume of moisture into early June. There will
06:38be an increase in thunderstorms. I would hedge my bets on the western half of that green fuzzy zone
06:43for the heaviest rain. Limited impacts from any tropical rain or wind through June 11th. Nothing urgent.
06:50Stay with us.
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