00:00But what's going to happen after Aaron? There are some additional storm threats out into the Atlantic.
00:06In fact, a series of tropical waves are all lined up out there.
00:09Here's another really robust one over Western Africa right now.
00:12But if we were to highlight those that are over the ocean, we are expecting to see some development come out of a couple of these here.
00:19And Fernand may not be far off. In fact, the storm that's farther east may potentially be first to organize.
00:25But I'm going to begin our little journey across the Atlantic closer to home, just to take it maybe not sequentially, but just from west to east.
00:33And this tropical wave here is battling some dry air for now.
00:36Here's the water vapor loop. There is a lot of dry air in the yellow to the north and west of the situation here.
00:41I don't want to call it a storm, but north and west of the disturbance, the tropical wave.
00:45You can see there is some convection that's fighting through this dry air.
00:49There's also some wind shear in its path.
00:51So this other argument against any organization, it's about a 7 to 10 degree longitude jump here to get through this area of strong wind shear in the short term.
01:02So we're probably not going to see this organized too quickly, but there will be an opportunity for it to organize as we step into Friday and Saturday and Sunday.
01:10Less wind shear, very close to the path that Aaron took.
01:14One thing that will be different, though, compared to Aaron, the trough's going to be farther off to the southeast.
01:18So even though we're likely going to see this organized at the end of the weekend of the weekend,
01:23we're probably also going to see it curved and steered out to sea more abruptly,
01:29with it getting no closer than Aaron's position from maybe back on Monday.
01:34So we don't expect it to get as close as Aaron is right now, and this will likely stay out.
01:38Now, it could impact areas like Bermuda, but wind shear may keep it a little bit weaker.
01:43Farther east, this is a more robust tropical wave.
01:45If we need to keep an eye out for this one, this one will also eventually encounter some wind shear and drier air, though.
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