08/08/25 Increasing temperatures - Met Office weather forecast UK - video Dailymotion

Met Office

From Sunday, high pressure across the south means lots of fine and settled conditions. Temperatures are on the up which means we could see our fourth heatwave of the summer. Here's Honor with all the details from our Weather Studio Live on every Friday at 12:15.

Transcript

00:00The real question is, are we going to see the fourth heat wave of the summer?

00:05Now let's not forget, for it technically to be a heat wave,

00:09we do need to see temperatures of between 25 to 28 degrees Celsius,

00:13depending on your location in the UK,

00:15so a little bit higher across central areas and parts of the southeast.

00:19And we need to see those temperatures or higher for three consecutive days.

00:23Now temperatures look like they're only up from Sunday onwards,

00:26but there's still a little bit of a question mark as to how long the heat could last.

00:31Nevertheless, whether it's a heat wave or not, temperatures are going to be on the up.

00:36So here we have temperatures compared to the climatological average here in the UK.

00:41And you can see already from these charts,

00:44these are daytime temperatures along the bottom from Sunday to Wednesday,

00:48and these are overnight temperatures from Sunday night through into Tuesday night.

00:51So it's not just the days that are going to be warming up, it's the nights as well.

00:55And you can see quite clearly already, day-to-day temperatures are on the up,

01:00shown by these slightly darker red colours.

01:03So initially on Sunday, the bulk of the heat is going to be across central England,

01:07parts of the southeast, east Anglia, London in particular.

01:10We're going to start to see temperatures pushing through into the high 20s.

01:14And then from Monday onwards, there's a good chance that we'll start to see temperatures push into the low 30s as well.

01:19Once again, initially across central parts of England on Monday, parts of the southeast,

01:23but this time pushing a little further north, parts of Yorkshire, Lincolnshire too,

01:27could start to see those temperatures push up into the high 20s.

01:31And then we really do see that intense heat push through on Tuesday.

01:34That's likely going to be the peak of the heat, Tuesday daytime.

01:37Well, we'll start to see those temperatures around 30 degrees, if not a few degrees more,

01:42probably around a 10% chance that we could push up into 34, possibly 35 degrees Celsius.

01:47And similar on Wednesday.

01:50After that, there's a little bit of model spread, a little bit of uncertainty as to if we're going to see the heat continue

01:56or if we're going to see things perhaps turn a little bit more towards average for the time of year.

02:00Nevertheless, though, the temperatures are on the up and not just during the day, but overnight as well.

02:05And we're going to start to see humidity increase too.

02:07So by kind of Monday night, Tuesday night, a chance actually, particularly around London,

02:13that we could see a tropical night.

02:14And that's when temperatures don't drop below 20 degrees for a full 24-hour period.

02:19And if it's quite humid as well, it doesn't make for the most comfortable sleeping,

02:23particularly if you're in the southeast.

02:26But how hot is it actually going to get?

02:28Let's take a look at that.

02:29And we can use our what we call box and whisker plots

02:32to kind of take a look at that over the next couple of weeks.

02:35And we've used these before on lives.

02:38We've used them in quite a few of our videos.

02:40But essentially, the longer the box, so these red boxes are daytime temperatures,

02:45the longer the box, the more spread there is in the models about what exactly that maximum temperature is going to be.

02:51But if the boxes are quite short, there's actually quite a lot of agreement.

02:54So Monday, for example, this is Reading in the south.

02:57We can see on Monday that box is actually quite short.

02:59So temperatures are likely to be in the mid to high 20s.

03:03Then as we head into Tuesday, a bit more spread, a bit more of a longer box.

03:08So still a little bit of uncertainty as to what the exact highest temperature is going to be.

03:12But some models are indicating that we could get kind of 31, 32,

03:16possibly a degree or two higher as we head into Tuesday.

03:19And as I say, that's likely to be the peak of the heat.

03:22And it's not just across the south.

03:24Northern areas as well are set to see an increase in the heat,

03:26perhaps not pushing into 30 degrees,

03:28but certainly the mid to high 20s as we head kind of early into next week.

03:34And then, as I say, from Wednesday onwards,

03:36we see a bit more of a spread in those temperatures.

03:39So a little bit more of a question mark as to how long that heat is going to last.

03:42But certainly Monday, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday,

03:44we're going to see that heat increase.

03:47And the question is, I suppose, why?

03:49Why are we starting to see this kind of return of the heat?

03:53And it's all to do with, well, it's a few things, actually.

03:55It's day-to-day heating, so day by day, obviously the surface, the air is already hot.

04:00And then if the next day is hot again, that just adds to the heat that was already there.

04:04We also have high pressure dominating the weather.

04:07And in a high-pressure situation, generally the air is moving down.

04:10And as it does so, it compresses.

04:12That creates heat as well.

04:14So it's all about subsidence.

04:15So you've got day-to-day heating, you've got subsidence.

04:18And not only that, but by the time we reach Tuesday,

04:21we do actually see a slight change in our wind direction

04:23as we see a shift in where that high pressure sits.

04:26We start to pick up a bit of a southerly, southeasterly wind as well.

04:30So then we start to pick up that quite warm air across Europe.

04:33Obviously, there's heatwave conditions across much of Europe at the moment.

04:37So with that change in wind direction, we're also expecting more heat from Europe too,

04:41particularly on Tuesday, where we are expecting the peak of those temperatures.

04:44So there's a few things going on, which is why temperatures are starting to increase.

04:49But obviously, as I said, for it to be technically a heatwave,

04:52we need to see those hot temperatures over three consecutive days.

04:56So it could be a heatwave or we could just see an increase in the heat.

04:59But nevertheless, it is certainly going to be feeling warm

05:02and many of us are going to be seeing plenty of sunshine.

05:04So I'll see you next time.

08/08/25 Increasing temperatures - Met Office weather forecast UK

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