00:00Hello there, welcome to your latest 10-day trend from the Met Office and so
00:05far this summer the 10-day trend has all been about heat waves or thunderstorms
00:10and this one's going to be slightly different. So looking at the upper air
00:15pattern at the moment and the jet stream, the UK has been in this dip of a jet
00:20stream over the last few days, low pressure sat in the middle of this dip,
00:24we've seen unsettled conditions, heavy showers and thunderstorms for many of
00:27us over the last few days but it's all changed over the next few days. If we
00:32just play the jet stream pattern on for the next few days we can see how we lose
00:36the dip in the jet stream and the jet stream becomes a bit more mobile, a bit
00:40more westerly across the UK and what that allows is weather fronts to move in
00:44particularly across northern and western parts. But at the same time the Azores
00:48High behind me here is starting to try and push some ridging up from the
00:52southwest at times and you can almost see a bit of a north-south split developing.
00:56This area of low pressure interacting with the jet stream here you can see on
01:00Saturday and later into Sunday on our global model there's some uncertainty
01:05around that with the details. We'll come on to that in a moment but the main sort of
01:10features are coming in from the Atlantic which is always a fresher direction. So
01:15having a quick look at the forecast for Friday and a bit of a northwest
01:19southeast split across the UK, quite cloudy conditions across the north and the
01:23west a weak weather front pushing its way eastwards with some patchy light rain and
01:27drizzle at times becoming a little brighter but notice temperatures here
01:3017 to 21 Celsius fresher and breezy with that westerly wind but further south and
01:37east particularly across central southern parts of the UK temperatures in the
01:41sunshine rising to the mid to locally high 20 so warm afternoon to come. Then for
01:47Saturday a fairly cloudy day there'll be some bright or sunny spells there'll be a
01:51scattering of showers as well and then just behind me here this area of low
01:54pressure moving into the southwest uncertainties with the development of
01:59this it really needs the interaction with the jet stream to develop into an
02:02area of low pressure but it could start to bring some rain across some
02:06southwestern parts later in the day but for the vast majority it should be a
02:10fairly dry day a scattering of showers so the umbrella will be needed and
02:13temperatures high teens to low 20s across many parts centrally across the UK
02:19there 25 26 Celsius still possible. So just taking a look at different model
02:24outputs for the weekend and concentrating on the area of low pressure our global
02:29model here from the Met Office really sort of sticks out compared to other
02:32models developing a deep area of low pressure just to the southwest of the UK
02:37through Saturday and into Sunday whilst other models ECMWF for example on the
02:41right top right there you can see doesn't really have that deep area of low
02:45pressure and similar for the GFS with this more of a westerly flow pushing away
02:50any low pressures quicker that also then has an impact on our rainfall through the
02:56weekend the these are showing two different past model runs the top left
03:01pictures here and the bottom left picture is our global model you can see
03:05the previous model from the system here created some very intense rainfall
03:10amounts 50 60 70 80 millimeters plus in places across the southwest of the UK
03:15while some of the models ECMWF in the middle GFS on the right there
03:20indicates much lower amounts in fact the ECMWF here keeps the heaviest rainfall
03:25weight rates away from UK and now looking at the most recent rainfall from our model runs
03:31you can see how the rainfall totals are much lower on our latest global model
03:35still higher compared to say ECMWF which actually keeps rainfall amounts much lower
03:41so it just shows the uncertainty is there for Saturday and into Sunday with the
03:46development of that low pressure system probably most likely they'll still be
03:49some heavy showers around but the main sort of heavy and more persistent rain
03:54largely likely to miss the UK but just shows you there is the potential there for
03:59some heavier rain into southwestern parts which we'll need to watch so here's a look
04:03at the forecast using our extended high-res data for Sunday and it does develop a lot
04:08of heavy showers across central southern parts which may or may not come off they
04:13may start to ease later on in the day depending on the development and the movement of that
04:17low pressure through Saturday night into Sunday and temperatures once again above
04:22average and we can see that nicely on the anomaly charts for the next few days Friday
04:26and into Saturday particularly England and Wales the reds there on the map indicating
04:30temperatures above average something a little cooler across the northwest into
04:35next week when we start to see that more westerly mobility starting to develop
04:40temperatures actually back down nearer to average for the time of year generally
04:44you can just about see some blue hues across northern and western parts
04:48occasionally a little red on the far east with a bit of shelter but something a
04:52little cooler on the way to end the weekend and beginning of next week so
04:58talking about next week and looking at the five to ten day period we can see
05:02generally we're still going to keep a westerly regime in terms of our weather
05:08pattern this is the most likely weather pattern set up for Tuesday the 29th of
05:12July we can see there's always high trying to extend across the southwest this is
05:16using ECMWF data and low pressure to the north indicating some windier conditions
05:21here but also the risk of some rain coming in at times this high pressure may just
05:26move around a little bit through the course of next week and so if we take a
05:30look at Thursday for example you can see the most likely scenario is just the high
05:35to push a little further north and eastwards just allowing drier than average
05:40weather to develop across southern and western parts but the same time notice the
05:44wind direction still coming in from the north and northwest so quite a cool
05:48direction any sheltered eastern and southeastern parts likely to see the
05:52warmest temperatures but temperatures likely near average for many as you can
05:56see the percentage chance of this starts to drop off the further we go out this
06:00high pressure could still move around a little bit there is some model outputs
06:04that sort of allow the high to push a little further south we may see them
06:07weather fronts come in from time to time particularly across the north but they
06:11may make their way further south as well so if you're expecting rain through next
06:15week the further north and west you are more likely to see rain the further south and
06:19southeast you are you're more likely to be drier with sunny spells but there could
06:23still be a little rain around typical summer conditions if we take a look at
06:29europe for next week these are the temperature anomaly maps from east mwf and you can
06:33actually see after what has been a hot summer so far across europe the week ahead into the
06:39next week five to ten days it's indicating the temperature anomaly is going to be slightly
06:43below normal so if there are any chances that we switch our wind directions to a
06:48bit more of a southerly direction over the course of next week which is looking
06:52fairly unlikely of more of a west northwesterly flow temperatures across
06:56europe being a little below average we won't see the return of that extreme heat
07:01like we have done so far this summer so if we look at the probability plot over the
07:07course of the next two weeks we can see initially low pressure in charge at the
07:11moment giving that unsettled weather but quickly the azores high allowing it to settle down but
07:17just notice how there is a north-south split a 50-50 split with low pressure high pressure as
07:22we end july and go into the beginning of august this is that azores high the yellows there
07:28indicating the azores high coming in from the southwest so again indicating that north-south
07:33split with low pressure always nearby the further north you are but just hints as we get towards
07:38the beginning of august the scandinavian high and higher pressure to the north of the uk just
07:44showing up on some models which may just indicate through into august a settling down of the weather
07:49something a little warmer and drier but for now generally overall a north-south split with the
07:55weather with a mixed picture overall low pressure likely to the north high pressure to the south
08:01typical summer weather temperatures near average but they could be warm and it will be pleasant at times
08:06in that sunshine the sunshine still strong at this time of year it's largely going to be dry
08:12towards southern parts compared to the north but not exclusively we will see some showers some
08:17spells of rain perhaps at times through the next five to ten days but overall very much like a normal
08:24summer something we haven't really seen so far so if you'd like more information on the weather for
08:31the next few days you can go to our app our website and don't forget to click subscribe on our youtube
08:37channels for all the updates see you again soon
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