00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. A change in the weather patterns is
00:05on the way but I suspect it's a change that won't be widely popular. Now, for more than
00:11a week we've had northerly winds dominating things and that's brought below average temperatures
00:17and frequent showers in many spots. But looking to the west over the Atlantic, there's a branch
00:23of the jet stream which is, over the next 24 hours, going to pick up an area of low
00:28pressure and send it towards the UK. On the forward flank of that low, a warm front-cold
00:33front combo bringing some persistent rain for a time. Once that rain clears on Friday
00:38we've got the low pressure in place over the top of the UK. The jet stream once again to
00:44the south of the UK and that means we've got an upper level low and surface area of low
00:51pressure coincident with each other. So the surface low, the upper low and a strong sun
00:57at this time of year. All the ingredients there for rapidly rising air currents, beefy
01:01shower clouds, cumulonimbus clouds and torrential downpours, even some thunderstorms on Friday
01:09and into the weekend as the jet stream stays to the south and we've got areas of low pressure
01:14dumbbelling around each other in the vicinity of the UK. So a lot of showers to come during
01:21the next few days after the band of rain on Thursday moves through. It all gets a bit
01:26messy by the start of next week but either way we've got the jet stream to the south
01:31so the UK still sitting in relatively cool air to the north of that jet stream but it's
01:36not as cool as it has been with the northerly airflow temperatures returning closer to average.
01:43We start Thursday with a chill in the air in places after a clear night but it won't
01:48be long before the band of rain moves in from the west, some heavy bursts at times and a
01:53strengthening breeze as well particularly across western parts of the UK. To the east
01:58it stays dry until later in the afternoon although it turns increasingly cloudy, northern
02:02Scotland the place to be with some sunny spells and it's not going to be quite as cold as
02:07it has been recently. Nevertheless it's not exactly going to be warm either. Now we've
02:12got the rain moving east on Thursday night, it pushes into Scotland with a lot of cloud,
02:18a keen breeze and showers following from the west and the south west. As a result temperatures
02:24by dawn on Friday generally in the double figures and that's a contrast compared with
02:29previous mornings this week where we've seen widely single figures and this map shows the
02:34temperatures on Friday morning compared with 24 hours earlier. So yeah it's going to be
02:40a milder start to the day on Friday because of the breeze, the change in wind direction,
02:45the cloud, outbreaks of rain but not necessarily a pleasant start because we're going to see
02:50frequent showers across the UK. This is a snapshot Friday midday, you can see the speckled
02:56nature of the showers just about anywhere could be hit by a heavy downpour or a thunderstorm
03:01on Friday. One place where we'll see persistent rain continuing is the far north of Scotland
03:06along with a breeze and it will be breezy towards the south west as well. That's going
03:11to make it feel on the cool side 17 or 18 Celsius here but also with some choppy seas.
03:18Meanwhile to the east 19 Celsius and that change in wind direction perhaps leading to
03:24a different feel in the weather compared with the northerlies that have brought temperatures
03:28of 12 to 15 Celsius during the week so far. So yeah temperatures are rising particularly
03:34in the east but with frequent showers and a lot of cloud. Fast forward 24 hours to Saturday
03:40midday and you can see a similar theme, a lot of showers out there, some of these bright
03:45colours on the rain forecast indicating heavy downpours, even torrential downpours, thunderstorms
03:51and so on. But there are some themes emerging on Saturday, rather than a random assortment
03:56of showers across the place there are some areas that will be wetter than others. North
04:00East Scotland could see some persistent rain arriving from the east and north east because
04:05of some occluded fronts here. Meanwhile the south of England could see some organisation
04:10to the showers where the showers band together in lines so that some areas see shower after
04:15shower, a lot of rain, other areas avoid them and stay mostly dry and there's a scattering
04:20of showers elsewhere across the UK as well but also some drier spots. But don't take
04:26this particular map to literally a few days ahead and this is one computer model run just
04:32to get an idea of how things can change from run to run depending on the position and the
04:39shape of the low pressure, the cloud distribution across the UK, the temperature distribution
04:44and so on. All these things are important for shower development. Here's something we
04:47call a confetti chart. Now this takes 34 computer model runs and shows the distribution of the
04:55showers on each run by a different colour, ends up looking like confetti on the map.
05:00That's what you can see just about the UK here. There's Scotland, Northern England,
05:04Northern Ireland, Midlands, East Anglia, Southern England and Wales and what you can see a lot
05:10of showers across the UK, hardly anywhere spared from the showery activity but some
05:15areas seeing a lot more confetti than others and that means that more of those computer
05:19model runs are picking up on showers in those locations than others. So North East Scotland
05:23as I mentioned, Southern England a lot of showers here from all these different computer
05:28model runs. Fewer runs have showers Saturday midday through Wales and the Midlands but
05:34still some and this is just a snapshot at 12pm as well, 3pm may be different. So what
05:40this indicates is don't take the output from one computer model run too literally and of
05:45course that's the kind of thing that feeds weather apps and so on. So the best bet is
05:50to prepare for heavy showers through the next few days and to monitor them on the radar
05:55for example on the Met Office app. Having said that, there will be a slight change later
06:00in the weekend. We're still seeing the jet stream to the south of the UK but low pressure
06:05becomes centred over the North East of Scotland and further south perhaps turning drier for
06:10a time. However, the jet stream marks the contrast between cool air across the UK and
06:17much warmer, more humid air over France for example. This occluded front perhaps marking
06:22the boundary with some thundery activity there that could just affect the far south-east
06:28on Sunday. It's a low probability but something to perhaps stay tuned to over the next few
06:35days. But Sunday itself, most likely we're going to see a low pressure centred over North
06:42East Scotland. You can see the spiralling winds there, perhaps less breezy further south
06:45compared with Saturday and showers or outbreaks of rain affect Scotland, Northern Ireland
06:51but perhaps drier compared with preceding days for the Midlands, Wales, East Anglia,
06:57Southern England for example. However, still the chance of a few showers around and you
07:02can see the heavier downpours there over France that could early next week, perhaps later
07:07Sunday affect the far south-east. One other thing that's going to change over the next
07:12few days as well as increasingly heavy downpours is the temperatures. As I mentioned, these
07:17are the temperatures on Sunday afternoon compared with the time of recording, Wednesday.
07:22So some parts of eastern England more than 6 degrees higher on Wednesday afternoon and
07:27certainly central parts 3 to 6 degrees higher. Other areas not quite as different because
07:34we're going to see that unsettled weather, that breeze coming from the south-west for
07:38example and it's not going to feel particularly pleasant anywhere where we've got those heavy
07:42showers and the strong breeze. This shows the temperature trend for a central part of
07:46the UK from the European model. Now, the average maximum, daily maximum is shown by
07:51the red line there, the average overnight temperature shown by the blue line. The boxes
07:56show the range of likely temperatures during the next couple of weeks. Of course, as you
08:01go further ahead into the future, the boxes get bigger because of more uncertainty. But
08:05for the next 10 days or so, most of these boxes are below the averages for daytime and
08:10nighttime but not significantly so. They do rise a little into next week and get closer
08:16to the average, perhaps a little dip there for Wednesday and Thursday. I'll explain the
08:20reasons behind that in just a moment before a recovery then into the following weekend
08:25closer to average once again. So around average temperatures, perhaps a little below during
08:29the next 10 days after the significantly below average temperatures we've seen so far this
08:34June. Now, this is the most likely weather pattern, 61% probability for Tuesday the 18th
08:41of June. The low pressure that's been bringing us a lot of unsettled weather through the
08:45weekend is moving by this stage into Scandinavia. We've got higher pressure edging in from the
08:51west but it's a slow moving situation. So still some showers across the map and you
08:55can see the brighter colours there of France indicating some of that heavier rain, some
09:00of that perhaps thundery activity that could affect the south-east or at least the far
09:05south-east early next week. But many places drier for a time, fewer showers Monday, Tuesday
09:12but perhaps an increase again around the middle of the week. And with low pressure to the
09:17east, higher pressure to the west, we've again got this cooler airflow bringing below average
09:22temperatures for a time. The heaviest showers will be in the east, drier conditions to the
09:27west. That's what we've seen a lot of during the last week or so. However, fast forward
09:33to the end of the week, there's a lot of uncertainty by this stage. This is one plausible weather
09:39pattern but it's showing up as a 16% probability. And here's another plausible weather pattern,
09:45again 16% probability. So the computer models are starting to diverge with the placement
09:53of low pressure, very different in different output. But one common theme is that it's
09:58staying unsettled. And it looks likely that we will see further rain or showers, whether
10:04that's coming from another Atlantic low arriving from the west or the low pressure that's close
10:09to the UK at the start of the week is uncertain. Either way it's unsettled with temperatures
10:14not far from average but it's likely to be further changeable weather for many places.
10:21This high though is interesting. This is the Azores high. And just to leave you with
10:26some more positive hints, very subtle hints but something more positive, this is the most
10:33likely weather pattern for Tuesday 25th June. But it's only a 17% chance at that stage.
10:40There are lots of other weather patterns that give an 8% or 9% chance, percentage chance.
10:47But this would allow the high pressure from the Azores to build over the UK, bringing
10:52drier and warmer weather in many places for the final week in June. But I must emphasise
10:59that it is only a hint at the moment. It's a hint that we are seeing in the European
11:04model as well as the Met Office models. And this shows that the final week of June is
11:09more likely to be higher pressure than lower pressure but only slightly more likely. Likewise,
11:16slightly more likely to be warmer than average and colder than average. But these hints,
11:22just emphasise one more time, are very weak at the moment. It's a long way off. We've
11:28got a lot of weather to come between now and then. I just wanted to end with something
11:33a little more positive if you're hoping for some warm sunshine. There are some hints there
11:38of a change late June but we'll have to watch them closely over the next few days to see
11:43if those hints strengthen. We'll keep you updated right here at the Met Office.
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