00:00 [Intro]
00:03 Let's really dive into this game and I want to start with the spread here.
00:06 And I'm curious who has made decisions, who's waiting, because I think anybody that's heard me talk since the game has been said is well aware I am on the 49ers and nothing is going to change that.
00:19 The way this game sets up, the way these two teams enter, it just, it fits kind of everything that I want.
00:25 The Niners have won consecutive games ugly. I believe they are the best team pound for pound in football.
00:31 Now, it always comes down to one game. I think it is very fair to say they should have lost to both Green Bay and Detroit.
00:38 But they didn't and they're here. And the idea that the Niners are going to play a third consecutive poor performance below their standard, I don't necessarily believe in.
00:52 The Chiefs on the other end quite literally have played their two best games two weeks in a row by DVOA.
00:59 Those were their two best performances against Buffalo and against Baltimore, Ben.
01:03 So, it's a spot for me where I understand that people say, "Oh, Chiefs are playing their best ball."
01:08 I look at this as the Chiefs are due for a level of regression and I think you're supposed to see the Niners go out there and have an excellent, excellent game from the word go.
01:19 San Francisco is expected to be here, as is Kansas City. Fourth Super Bowl trip in the last five NFL seasons.
01:25 But the 49ers have been booked as a favorite in all 19 of their football games this year.
01:31 Against the numbers so far, they are now 9 and 10 against the spread.
01:35 But the intriguing thing is, Kev, this will be only the seventh time that Brock Purdy has started a game for San Francisco in this 2023 season in which they lay less than a touchdown.
01:46 In the previous six throughout the regular season, four and two both straight up and against the spread.
01:50 But Donny, you've made this point. When you have Patrick Mahomes on the other side, there is the narrative, there is the storyline,
01:56 then there are the actual literal numbers of Patrick Mahomes, the 12 games in his now six-year NFL career as a starter for Kansas City,
02:04 booked as an underdog, 10-1-1 against the number, 9 and 3 straight up.
02:08 Chiefs doing it a different way this year. And also, guys, you know you take a look at those silhouettes like player A, player B.
02:12 Just put the numbers up side by side. You got, that's Mahomes on the left, that's Purdy on the right, because Mahomes has the better numbers.
02:17 Not the case. You're talking about passing yards, you're talking about touchdowns, less interceptions.
02:21 You know who that all is? It's Brock Purdy. He's actually been the better quarterback at that point.
02:25 Now also, coming into this game, guys, we take a look at how you got here.
02:28 Maybe the most complete game that was played between the two was the opening weekend on wild card with the Kansas City Chiefs, that 26-7 victory over the Dolphins.
02:35 The next game, took a missed field goal there from Tyler Bass.
02:38 Then you get into the final with the AFC, and you say, "Alright, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens didn't play well. Kansas City doesn't score in the second half."
02:44 Not necessarily coming in hot. Flip it over to the 49ers. Probably should have lost to Green Bay. Probably should have lost to Detroit.
02:50 So we're also at that up in the air. It's like, you know what, sometimes you get one of those teams that is just real clean through the playoffs.
02:54 Wild card round, divisional round, AFC-NFC championship round, and moving on to the Super Bowl.
02:59 I want the hot team. We don't have that, which is great for handicapping, because which team are we going to find out?
03:04 Is it the team we've been waiting for in Kansas City to be aggressive on offense and play very good defense?
03:08 And also on the opposite side, San Francisco being that front runner, right? 14 points in the first quarter, and away they go.
03:13 That's what I'm looking forward to, but we don't get that handicap. It's like, you know what, one team is playing perfect football at this moment.
03:19 [MUSIC]
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