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00:00Spread lines on a Monday radio on the early line. It's Donnie right side and it's Joe Ranieri. The
00:04month of March is upon us. Yes, March 25th is Major League Baseball season. March 25th,
00:08you are going to be the depths of Selection Sunday plus the tournament and away we go to
00:13the Final Four in early April. A lot of these key games are still lining up, which includes the ACC.
00:18Joe, if you're watching over the weekend, I know you were. Duke, ultra impressive in gaining a share
00:22of the ACC regular season championship. They can clinch it in full tonight by taking on NC State.
00:29Duke is at NC State tonight. This line opened up overnight, Joe. Double digits has dipped down
00:33slightly to minus nine and a half at most outlets in a total of 147 and a half. Duke and
00:38the ACC,
00:39how good have they been this year, Joe? How about number one in efficiency on offense and also number
00:43one in efficiency on defense as well. Tremendous team looking to clinch it all in the regular season,
00:49Joe. But the question to you is not will Duke win? What's that spread line tonight?
00:53Yeah, well, it's definitely. And by the way, I don't think it's going to matter what Duke does
00:57here. Win, lose, tie. They're still going to be a number one seed come March Madness here. But,
01:03you know, the big question to me is for NC State, who has been going the wrong way here. But
01:10they
01:10have been better at home, Donnie, this season, both offensively and defensively. Also, Duke has just
01:17been on ridiculously unconscious shooting the ball from three here over the last couple of games.
01:24In fact, I think if you go over the last eight games, they're not that good of a three-point
01:29shooting team. But they're not missing many. If they do regress here a little bit, maybe just maybe
01:35on the road, NC State can keep this game close, Donnie. I don't think they'll win it. But can they
01:40keep it within double digits? Depends on how well Duke shoots the three tonight.
01:46Exactly. Let's head out to the Big 12 here. Iowa State going to take on Arizona. Iowa State
01:50loses two of their past three games. But Arizona seems to have found their mojo once again. Last
01:54game out, they absolutely detonated Kansas here. Arizona is a favorite at home at minus seven and
01:59a half. Those are the opening numbers. And you see the graphics still sits this morning at minus
02:03seven and a half as well. The total in this game, 147 and a half. Arizona on defense, number one
02:08most
02:08efficient team in Big 12 play here. Arizona versus Iowa State. Joe, what's that spread line for you
02:14tonight? Well, the problem with Iowa State, I mean, how they lost at Hilton to a, you know,
02:19shorthanded Texas Tech team is hilarious. Oh, I know how. They can't shoot, Donnie. Absolutely
02:25horrific shooting. And here's the stat you need to know. They are 10-0 this year if they make 10
02:32or
02:32more threes in a game. That's great. The problem is they have not made 10 threes in a game since
02:38February 1st. And by the way, Arizona has only allowed 10 or more threes just five times this
02:46year. And boy, oh boy, expecting them to go on the road to Arizona and all of a sudden regain
02:52that
02:52touch from the perimeter? I doubt it. There's a reason why this line is seven and a half, Donnie.
02:59And it would not shock me if we start to get a little bit more money towards Arizona here,
03:04because something tells me Arizona is going to wrap up the big 12 here tonight, the big bow.
03:11And how about this? The IU, Indianapolis Jaguars here on the road to take on Cleveland State. We're
03:15talking horizon basketball, people. Look at this line overnight, a minus one and a half point favorite
03:20for the home team. Cleveland State still sits this morning at minus one and a half. A total, Joe,
03:25which you love to see, 170 and a half. Why? Because two of the worst defenses in the horizon are
03:30going
03:31to be on full display tonight. Roughly pick them, Joe, Cleveland State, IU, Jaguars. What's going to
03:36be the determination in this one and the spread line? This is the first conference tournament game
03:42of 2026, people. It is the, are you ready for this? The play-in game for the horizon tournament.
03:49That's what we've got here. That's how bad these two teams have been. But make no mistake about it
03:55here, Donnie. We're talking about two teams that are absolutely correct, not going to play any
04:01defense. Imagine a tournament game and the total is 170 and a half. Why? Because you're going to get
04:08dizzy watching these two teams run up and down the court and chuck up threes, as many as they do.
04:13It would not shock me if one team gets to 100 in this game, Donnie, because that is how many
04:20shots
04:20and possessions they are going to have here. Neither team is going to play defense. If it's
04:26170 and a half, Donnie, it's 170 and a half for a reason. I wouldn't be sweating out and under
04:31in
04:32this horizon league play-in game. Basketball topics, Joe. That's what we're here for. It's March. It's
04:37time for March Madness. And maybe March Madness could already be over in the women's game. Not
04:42necessarily. Some really good basketball teams. But this is an interesting topic to talk about.
04:46It's about UConn's women's basketball. And if you don't pay attention to women's basketball as much,
04:50like, yeah, of course. I think every year UConn's undefeated or has one loss. Well, did you know,
04:54Joe, they completed their first undefeated regular season in eight years with a win over St. John's?
05:00It sounds kind of crazy because at third division one level, they play all the toughest teams out
05:04of conference and seemingly mow through them. But it's interesting to me where you just feel like
05:08UConn every other year is unbeaten. It's been eight years since they ran through the regular season
05:13unbeaten. That was interesting to me. Yeah. Well, you know, you just UConn and women's basketball
05:19synonymous with just, oh, yeah, right. Have they lost a game yet? I mean, that is just that is
05:25their reputation. But it hasn't been. I mean, they did go, you know, some stretches, even though
05:30they've had some of the game's greatest players. They went through some stretches there where it
05:36wasn't good. But boy, are they good again in a big, big way. So and we talked about it with
05:43Miami of
05:43Ohio. I don't care when you can go undefeated. I don't care whether you're UConn or you're Miami
05:50of Ohio. It's a special season and it's a special group of players. And who better? Of course,
05:56Gino, another undefeated, undefeated season. It's just amazing stuff by the Huskies.
06:02And again, it's UConn we're talking about. I understand this. They've had talented basketball
06:07teams, both men's and women's. But what do you think like UConn would be the center of women's
06:11college basketball for close to 30 years? Like not like Miami or an SEC down south. It's
06:16absolutely been UConn here all along and they're back on top. They're undefeated. We'll see if they
06:20can win another national championship this year. How about this, Joe? The new age of men's college
06:25basketball and men's college sports for that is stay as long as you want, kid. And when you're a
06:29kid, you'll grow into an adult. 26-year-old Chad Baker-Mazar is no longer part of the USC basketball
06:35program, the school announced. This is an interesting one because he's changed schools a million times.
06:40But sort of gets injured in their last game, then decides he can't play, then has his uniform on
06:47and sits in the crowd only for his coach at the end of the game like, hey, we just didn't
06:51have
06:51enough chairs on the bench. Who's covering for who? But he's no longer a part of USC basketball.
06:56I mean, good riddance, Don. It's his third school that somehow he's, you know, got a divorce from.
07:02So, you know, you think there you see any red flags there, Donnie? You think there's anything
07:06behind that? Not a good teammate. And it's unfortunate because, you know, had they not
07:12lost Rice, who was another, was their best player to a shoulder injury in December, and had this kid
07:19not been a few fries short of a Happy Meal, they might be making a run. But Musselman right now
07:25has
07:25got to be going through it because with, he's their leading scorer. Without him, it's going to be tough
07:31sledding to make it anywhere even close to one of the top 68. By the way, it looked like they
07:36were
07:36headed towards March Madness here, maybe just getting in that large bid with five straight
07:40losses, not your best players. Like, I don't feel like playing anymore when he's off the team.
07:43Not a great look for USC at this point, but this is a new NIL era. Maybe it's like, hey,
07:46you know
07:46what? I want an extra million dollars to finish the season since I'm the star. No, you're not going
07:50to do that. Okay, coach, I can't play anymore. I'm just going to sit in the crowd and be off
07:54the
07:55baseball, excuse me, basketball team when it's all said and done. Crazy stuff, but that's the NIL era.
07:59Let's check on some of those games, y'all, on Saturday. Boy, people have been telling you for
08:02a couple of weeks now, Joe, watch out for those Florida Gators. 111 to 77. This wasn't Florida,
08:08like, hey, we're going to have a cross promotion and play the Horizon League. Like, no, this is SEC
08:12top 20 year Arkansas. I know you have their coaches, Calipari. 111 to 77. This team rounding
08:18into form, Joe. 14 and two now in the SEC. Listen, they have gone scorched earth, Donnie. They lost to
08:26Auburn at home for, like, the first time in, what, 15 years? Yeah. And ever since that loss,
08:33they have just gone scorched earth. They don't care who you are. And Arkansas, listen, had been
08:40very, very good, but they look like a deer caught in the headlights. They had no answer for Florida
08:47to draw, you know, 111 points in a college basketball game against the second place SEC
08:53team. Pretty impressive, Donnie. Regular season SEC champions. Those Florida Gators now put in the
09:01rafters, as they like to say, Joe. Yeah, I don't think, yeah, that put it in the rafters is great,
09:06but again, they're looking to defend their national championship title here, and they got a good shot
09:12of doing it, Donnie. Michigan's men's basketball put out a tweet here. LJ Cason will miss the rest
09:18of the season after tearing his ACL during U of M, which is obviously Michigan's victory
09:22at Illinois. Joe, tough blow for Michigan. Yeah, dominant win, by the way, over Illinois. Illinois
09:28has got to do some soul searching here, but he was one of their best three-point shooters, Donnie,
09:34so that's a big loss there for Michigan. Certainly is a big loss, of course. You know,
09:39they play good defense, but that offense, certainly high octane here. A lot of expectations on Michigan.
09:43Never good to head into your conference tournament slash March Madness without one of your better
09:47basketball players here. All right, so we got to talk about the Big East, right? Because that's
09:58what it's all about here. It's really the one that comes down to a two-horse race, and then, of
10:03course,
10:03what is going to happen from there. So when it comes to college basketball and these conference
10:10tournaments coming up, we want to know about UConn, right? What are they going to do? Are they going
10:16to win the Big East regular season title? St. John's bounced back in a big way over the weekend
10:24against Villanova, so we ask you, who's there going to be? I mean, who are you buying here when it
10:30comes
10:30to the Big East and UConn? Are you a UConn supporter? Are you backing them here? Well, it turns
10:37out, yeah, most of the people here, 58 percent, think, yep, they're worth backing, and they're going
10:43to get it done, the Huskies. I don't know here. Something tells me with UConn, we're talking about
10:50a team here that likes to play with their food, and what I mean by that is the market always
10:56overvalues them. They're a double-digit favorite every time we turn around, and they never cover
11:02games, and it's always, always a sweat with them. So at some point, they might get caught here, but I
11:10loved the way St. John's rebounded against Villanova in that game after missing their final 24 shots
11:17against UConn in the game prior. So there you go. UConn, gotta love them. Are they going to be one
11:25of
11:25those number one seeds? Well, we're going to talk about that coming up here, but first,
11:30we got some best bets. So now, let's get to our bye-bye-bye.
11:41All right, so not a huge slate of games here around the board today. We do have the start of
11:48some conference tournaments in mid-major level, but I'm going to go with the big boys. Duke taking
11:54on North Carolina State, and listen, Duke is the number one defensive-rated team in the country
12:01over the last month. They are just shutting teams down, and NC State is already having a hard time
12:10shooting. I don't know how they're going to score enough points to get this thing up and over tonight.
12:15The total was 148 and a half. I'm not buying it. I think Duke wins. I think they win rather
12:21easily,
12:21but I don't think that North Carolina State comes even close to 70 points in this game. So I'm going
12:27to
12:27go the under this, you know, whether it's, you know, predictive markets here, or you're looking
12:33at sports park markets here. Sometimes you just can't use terms like, oh, it's the Super Bowl here,
12:38and certainly now you can't use March Madness if you're in the predictive markets. So when I ask
12:42you this question, Joe, the round of 16 qualifiers, what does that actually mean to you? What do we call
12:48the round of 16 for the March Madness tournament here, Joe? Do you know what we call it?
12:54Uh, yeah, the, uh, I don't know, the best of the rest at this point, uh, here's 16, uh, the
13:00best 16
13:01teams, Donnie, that to me, call it what it is. If you can make it through the first weekend,
13:07yeah, yeah, that first couple of games, you're heading to the Sweet 16.
13:11Exactly. So we can't call it, I guess, the Sweet 16, or they can't listen to the Sweet 16. So
13:15Joe,
13:15we'll just keep it generic. Men's round of 16 qualifiers, which is Joe just pointed out,
13:20you got to win two games to get to the Sweet 16. And if we're looking at teams that are
13:24expected
13:24to do that with high levels of chance, that's Michigan, that's Illinois, that's Duke, that's
13:28Florida, that's Houston here, Joe. But as we know, a lot of Cinderella show up in this round of 16
13:34here,
13:35and if you slide it down, you're still getting odds on big name teams, Kentucky, St. John's,
13:40Vanderbilt, and Tennessee, Joe. Is it easy to take a contract out and say, yeah, Duke's going to be
13:45there. He won't make much money back. And if you're looking at a hundred dollar investment on Duke,
13:49that's going to pay you back 109, Joe, are we going top of the food chain? Or some chances for
13:55you to say, you know what, round of 16 here, I'm going to go a little bit lower.
13:59Well, you know, we know they're treating this with these prices as if that opening,
14:04you know, a couple of days of the tournament is just a formality. I mean, look at some of these
14:09prices with the teams at the top, right? I mean, Michigan, 88 cents, Illinois, 86. Listen,
14:16if it's one thing that we know about March Madness, especially early on, is that anything
14:24is possible. It usually at some point destroys the chalk. So to me, yeah, I would be looking maybe
14:32a little further down the board instead of the favorites. Teams like Gonzaga, for instance,
14:38even though they just lost to St. Mary's at 59 cents, might very well be worth a shot here,
14:45Donnie, because they're going to bring the defense and they might get their best player back as well.
14:51Yeah. Seating, which we'll talk about in just a few moments here, Joe, but understand this,
14:54get to the sweet 16. Once again, you need two victories here, but also we like to see where
14:58some of these teams were trading at. And as you know, Texas tech was one of the better teams in
15:02the country with one of the better players here. You get one of those superstar players injured
15:06because Texas tech on January the 28th, Joe was trading at 99% chance to be in the sweet 16.
15:13That's no longer the case right now. As I take my little dandy dandy scroller and find them Joe
15:18trading at 58% now, these numbers change on a day-to-day basis. Yeah, they do. I mean,
15:24volatility is what we're talking about here, right? Because let's face it, you know, Kansas didn't
15:30look all that good again, right? In their last game. So what happens? Yeah, well, they were trading
15:37at one point when they were winning games, much closer to what Michigan is at right now. But after
15:43a kind of lackluster effort there, now all of a sudden, we got a little bit of a discount here
15:49on
15:49them. But that's going to happen, Donnie, this week as we get ready for conference tournaments.
15:55Top seeds here that you want to look at on Polymarket here, Duke, Michigan, and Arizona,
15:59all trading respectively, Joe. 98%, 96%, and 93%. A little fall off there to UConn at 69%,
16:06and away you go here. Number one seeds for the tournament. Not going to win it, Joe. Not needing
16:11a final four, not needing a championship, just to be a number one seed here. Are we going top of
16:15the
16:15food chain once again? There's some other teams that you figure might be able to crash the party with
16:19a late surge in their conference regular season, which will end this week, and then into conference
16:24tournament action for the big boys next week, Joe. Well, I mean, looking at these prices, right,
16:30you would think the algorithm in the market is already saying, listen, the selection committee,
16:36your job's already done. You got Duke, you got Michigan, you got Arizona. I mean, they are priced
16:41as absolute shoe-ins, right? But it's that fourth one there, Donnie, that fourth number one seed,
16:47which is where the discrepancy might come in. And right now, as of today,
16:52it's between UConn and Florida. But could Alabama play a role there? In these kinds of markets,
17:00at those price levels, I am looking to kind of short some anywhere I can go. And right now,
17:08I do think while UConn has got the leg up right now in this market, I'm still looking at Florida.
17:15I think Florida is going to be another number one seed here. And I think the committee is going to
17:20go
17:20that way as well. Let's take a look, Joe, at Calci, as they point out. Oh, let's go a little
17:25bit of,
17:26you know, vanilla here. Men's semifinals qualifier. Well, that's a boring way to say
17:30the final four people who's stepping up to the plate. Duke trading at a 57% chance. Arizona,
17:3651% chance. Michigan, 48. And then Florida at 42. Just to keep this in mind, Florida,
17:42one of the hottest teams, winning the SEC regular season championship, clinching that the past couple
17:47days, $100 investment. If you think Florida, Joe, makes it to the final four, that pays back
17:53$239. This is a market that you figure because it takes more than two wins to get to a sweet
17:5716.
17:58You got to win your elite game. Then you find yourself in the final four. A lot more opportunity
18:02and a lot more profit here, Joe, in this market. Yes, there is. But there's also a lot more volatility
18:08because we still don't know what the brackets are going to look like, what the regions are going to
18:14look like. And I tell you right now, if UConn does get in as that fourth number one seed,
18:19good luck to whatever side of the bracket Florida is going to be a number two seed in because you're
18:25going to have to go through Florida, who likely should have been the one seed anyway. So I do think
18:31at this point, Donnie, in the final four, we need to start shorting some of these chalky favorites
18:38like the Michigans of the world here because while it's been good so far, they have also shown an
18:44ability. Yeah. With the right matchup, Michigan is not invincible here. So there might be a few
18:50opportunities to look down that board, maybe at a number of possible two or three seed to get some
18:55value. Yeah. And as Joe's pointing out as well, like this isn't a best of three where the cream is
19:00going to rise to the top. You got one game. The other team shoots lights out. You don't play well.
19:04You get in the foul trouble. You are out of this tournament, which makes it so hard to win. If
19:08you look at a team like from the Big East, St. John's, you get a great price on getting to
19:11the
19:11final four, Joe. Trading at 10%, which means a $100 investment pays back $1,000. If you look at a
19:17team
19:17like Michigan State, who just upended Indiana on the road, a $100 investment, Joe, plays $910. As Joe
19:23said, a lot of volatility, but a lot of profit in these markets, Joe. Yes. And really look to fade
19:29some of
19:30this early chalk. And again, you don't need to necessarily see this to fruition, right, Donnie?
19:35That's the beautiful thing about the predictive markets is that I can lock in a price now and all
19:41I need is some of these teams to look a little shaky and there's going to be some value in
19:46market
19:47volatility that you can profit from. Joe's so right about this, too, because when you look at, again,
19:52we talk about the Sweet 16 or the Elite Eight or the Final Four, the championship year, who's going to
19:56win it? Some of the times, Joe, when we talk about the predictive markets, you don't need your team to
19:59win
20:00it. If you took a long shot and they show up in the final game, that contract is going to
20:03be worth
20:04a lot of money, even if that team loses. But it's just a matter if you actually hit that button
20:08to
20:08say, I want to cash out and take my wagering now. Teams like Michigan State, quality, 2% chance to
20:14win, Joe. They find themselves in the Final Four. What's that ticket going to be trading at? 20%,
20:1925%, 30% at that point when you were sitting at 2% here. UConn sitting at 7%. But the
20:24favorite,
20:24no surprise, it's two teams, Joe and Kalski, trading the exact same chances here at 22%. It's Duke and
20:31it's Michigan, followed by Arizona at 14%. The only other team, Joe, in double digits here for the
20:36chance is those Florida Gators. And again, this is one of those also these kinds of markets where
20:43you can go and reverse, right, Donnie? So if I like Florida, which I do and I've stated many times
20:49to
20:50actually win the national championship, I can go down the board, Donnie, and just the Final Four,
20:56the Elite Eight, the Sweet Sixty, just keep going down the board. And you don't have to necessarily
21:02wait until they get there. But along the way, lock in those prices now with a team like the
21:08University of Florida. And we talked about earlier in the show today, Joe, you're looking at teams that
21:13are already underway in their conference tournaments here. Get a live look at some of these teams,
21:17make sure you keep updated on injuries. But Joe points out very astutely here,
21:21you gotta see where these teams are actually going in the actual order of one seed, two seed,
21:25three seed, four seed, and how tough that is actually going to be.
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