00:00 Hi there and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead.
00:03 A week in which we experience the first named storm of the autumn.
00:07 Storm Agnes doesn't look like much as we begin the forecast on Monday.
00:12 A relatively flat feature moving out of the eastern side of the US.
00:16 A breakaway feature from a system named Ophelia.
00:20 But that does get carried along over the next 24 hours by the jet stream.
00:25 And this powerful jet stream in the Atlantic will, once Agnes transfers onto the cold side
00:31 of it, spin that feature into a deep area of low pressure.
00:36 The main deepening phase is before it lands on the UK and Ireland but it will be containing
00:41 very strong winds as it crosses Ireland and the UK during Wednesday and into Thursday.
00:47 Before that happens we've got some other weather to talk about.
00:50 In fact, Tuesday starts off with some showers across central and southern parts of England.
00:55 East Wales, those showers could have the odd rumble of thunder within them.
00:59 And a spell of persistent rain moving through Northern Ireland during the morning into Western
01:03 and Northern Scotland eventually.
01:05 Once that system is out of the way it's back to sunny spells and showers.
01:08 Most of the showers will affect Western and Northern UK.
01:11 Actually after those early showers, East Anglia and the South East mostly dry with some sunny
01:14 spells.
01:15 Feeling warm here, the winds coming up from the South West.
01:18 Weather temperatures to Monday 22, 23 Celsius.
01:21 Not feeling so warm.
01:22 Towards the North West where those winds will be strong.
01:24 Risk of coastal gales and some heavy rain at times.
01:27 Even the odd rumble of thunder in any of these showers that follow the main persistent spell
01:31 of rain.
01:32 But then the weather turns even livelier during the middle of the week.
01:35 Here's Agnes and the colours on this system correspond to the wind gust values on the
01:41 right here.
01:42 And you can see how strong those winds are as Agnes sits out to the sea towards the South
01:47 West of the UK.
01:49 We're looking at 80s, possible 90s mile per hour wind gusts.
01:53 Now fortunately it looks most likely that Agnes will begin to fill as it moves into
02:00 Ireland and the UK.
02:01 So the worst of those winds begin to ease away.
02:04 But nevertheless it's still a powerful system by Wednesday evening as the peak of those
02:08 winds occur across Western and Northern parts of the UK.
02:12 And in fact there's still some uncertainty at the moment in terms of the exact depth
02:15 and track of Agnes.
02:18 Different computer models saying slightly different things.
02:20 And so we'll need to be slightly broad brush in terms of the precise wind values.
02:26 But suffice to say the most likely strongest winds will occur in this part of the UK with
02:33 the yellow warning having been issued.
02:35 And in some of these places 50 to 60 mile per hour wind gusts are possible inland and
02:41 around Irish sea coastal areas particularly the most exposed parts 65 to 75 mile per hour
02:47 wind gusts even a little more if the track and depth of Agnes end up being particularly
02:53 bad.
02:54 Now those kinds of winds would lead to dangerous coastal conditions as well as transport disruption
02:59 both around coasts and inland.
03:02 So that's why Agnes has been named because of that risk of fairly widespread disruption.
03:08 But Wednesday starts off for most of us relatively fine bright.
03:13 We have some early sunshine in the east more especially the north and northeast of Scotland
03:17 we keep the sunshine through daylight hours here.
03:19 Elsewhere swathes of rain move in ahead of the main system and that rain showery in the
03:25 south but turning more persistent across Northern Ireland Northern England central and southern
03:29 Scotland.
03:31 Along with that we've got the strengthening wind as I mentioned widespread gales around
03:34 coastal areas and perhaps inland as well for a time.
03:38 And of course the rain falling onto saturated ground across parts of Northern Ireland Northern
03:42 England central and southern Scotland could cause some issues especially for this part
03:46 of Scotland higher parts of central and southern Scotland the risk of 30 to 50 millimetres
03:51 of rain 60 millimetres in some places and combined with the wind could cause all sorts
03:57 of disruption during Wednesday night.
04:01 But during Wednesday night you can see how Agnes is filling it's becoming less of a deep
04:05 area of low pressure as it moves across Scotland still a windy spell on Wednesday night and
04:10 into Thursday but the risk of disruption decreases during the day on Thursday as the worst of
04:16 the wind and the rain move away strongest winds across northeastern Scotland as we begin
04:20 Thursday and eventually it's a blustery day yes but the risk of widespread gales diminishes
04:26 by the afternoon.
04:27 A lot of cloud about I think and still a few showers in the west but actually some brightness
04:31 coming through and not feeling too unpleasant towards the southeast for example we'll get
04:35 some sunny spells the heaviest showers occurring towards the northwest.
04:41 Then later Thursday we're keeping our eye on this system another developing area of
04:45 low pressure some uncertainty about again its depth and track but it's likely to bring
04:50 some wet weather to the south of the UK and the potential for some very strong winds once
04:55 again especially around south coastal areas.
04:59 That pulls through mostly overnight we've still got a low to the northwest of the UK
05:03 as well bringing showery conditions to the north and west of Scotland Northern Ireland
05:07 first thing Friday but the rain or showers in the south clear through.
05:11 Sunny spells replace those bands of rain it does brighten up through the day and by Friday
05:16 afternoon once again we're back into sunny spells and showers most of those showers in
05:19 the northwest best of any sunshine towards the south and southeast feeling a bit cooler
05:25 compared with the next couple of days for example.
05:28 But by the end of Friday lo and behold high pressure builds in from the south and that
05:34 will lead to a fine start for most of us on Saturday it's not exactly plain sailing still
05:38 some showers in the west and still some lows out to the west waiting to come in perhaps
05:44 for later in the weekend so it's not going to truly settle down but a glimmer of a more
05:50 benign period as we begin the weekend in between all these lows we're experiencing from the
05:56 Atlantic.
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